Climate Change and Arizona’s Rangelands: Management ... · Climate Change and Arizona’s...
Transcript of Climate Change and Arizona’s Rangelands: Management ... · Climate Change and Arizona’s...
Climate Change and Arizona’s Rangelands: Management
Challenges and Opportunities
Climate Change and Arizona’s Rangelands: Management
Challenges and Opportunities
Mike CrimminsClimate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science &
Arizona Cooperative ExtensionThe University of Arizona
Mike CrimminsClimate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science &
Arizona Cooperative ExtensionThe University of Arizona
Presentation Overview
• Arizona Climate & Range Management
• Important Concepts in Arizona Climatology
• Climate Variability and Change: Tools for Range Managers
“Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.” – Mark Twain
Arizona Climate and Resource Management
• Diverse types of rangelands (grasslands forested areas)
• Quick response to changing conditions (species specific adaptations and strategies)
• Complex interactions between native/invasive species, disturbances, soil types, current and past management actions AND climate.
Arizona Climate and Resource Management
Climate variability is important at many different scales
• Interannual variability, timing, duration, intensity of precipitation events
• Spatial coverage of precipitation• Interactions between temperature and
precipitation• Climate-related disturbances (e.g. wildfire,
insects, drought stress)
VegetationResponse
(growth, phenology,recruitment
Precipitation(seasonality, duration,
intensity, frequency)
Temperature(growing season length, freezing
events)
Wind(seed dispersal,
erosion, evapotrans.)
Landscape Features(Soils, topography,
veg structure,nutrient fluxes)
Ecological Climatology
Relative Humidity(evapotranspiration,diurnal temp. range)
Solar Radiation(photosynthetic rates,
evapotrans.)
Arizona Climate and Resource Management
Tools/methods/strategies to reduce climate sensitivities
• Management options(?)• Introduction of non-native species to
increase cover (impacts on biodiversity, changing fire regimes)
• Other options??
Important Concepts in Arizona Climatology
Seasonality: Arizona Temperature and Precipitation
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Variability and Trend: Annual Precipitation Anomaly
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Arizona statewide average annual total precipitation anomaly, long-term average: 12 inches
Variability and Trend: Annual Average Temperature
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Arizona statewide average annual temperature, long-term average: 59.7 F
Long-term average
Importance of considering precipitation AND temperature
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Dry Periods: PET>Precip
Wet Periods: Precip>PET
Annual Average Statewide Total Precipitation and Temperature for Arizona
1950’s drought 1980’s ENSOEvents
Local Soil-Climate-Vegetation Interactions
Annual Average Statewide Total Precipitation and Temperature for Arizona
Climate Variability and Change: Tools for Range Managers
• Monitoring & Diagnostic Tools– Range monitoring/climate
data research & product development
– Better drought impact assessments?
– Better monitoring of precipitation?
– RangeView with climate information, Southwest Climate Outlook
Climate Variability and Change: Tools for Range Managers
• Seasonal Forecasts– Highest confidence with
ENSO and winter precipitation– Monsoon season forecasts
very difficult to make (weak teleconnections with ENSO, U.S. snow pack, soil moisture status)
– How could seasonal forecasts be better utilized for range management?
Climate Variability and Change: Tools for Range Managers
From: ISPE Southwest Regional Assessment
• Climate Change Projections– Dealing with uncertainty– More confidence in temperature projections than precipitation– Changes in variability, seasonality, extreme event frequencies
Climate Variability and Change: Tools for Range Managers
• Integration with land management practices and ecological concepts/models– How can climate information
be better integrated in range management decision making?
– What new information is needed?
– Can existing information be better utilized?
Closing Points• Rangelands are especially sensitive to
climate variability and change• Complex climate at many different scales
through time and over space• Opportunities to develop new ways of
thinking about climate in range management (new tools, information, and conceptual models)
Thank You!
http://cals.arizona.edu/climate