Climate change and agricultulture wfp side event durban
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Transcript of Climate change and agricultulture wfp side event durban
COP 17 Durban, Dec 2011
Living with extremes – what the science says
Bruce Campbell, Director, CGIAR Climate (CCAFS)
Three key messages1. Agriculture and food systems need
to be totally transformed2. Extremes can be expected in many
forms3. There are solutions, ….
Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change
13 scientists from around the world
Identify and promote policy actions to achieve sustainable agriculture, food security and poverty reduction while delivering climate change adaptation and mitigation
AfricaAsia
The food security challenge
• 1 billion undernourished
• 1 billion more mouths to feed in 14 years
• Up to 60-70% more food needed by 2050
2°4°
PROBLEMATIC• Increased floods and storms
• Shortage of water resources
• Impacts on food production at low latitudes
• Greater depth of seasonal permafrost thawDISASTROUS
• A 16 °C increase in the Arctic
• Substantial impact on major crops
• Around 1 billion additional people experience water scarcity
• Extensive coastal flooding as sea levels rise
The adaptation challenge
2090; 14 climate models
Four degree rise
Thornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS
>20% loss5-20% lossNo change5-20% gain>20% gain
Length of growing period (%)
The adaptation challenge…..
The “footprint” challenge
• Agriculture contributes nearly a third of GHGs
• ¾ of these emissions come from developing countries
Meridian Institute, 2011
Food Security
Adaptation
Mitigation
Message #1: Agriculture and food systems
need to be totally transformed
Extreme events
• Pose greater threat to livelihoods and food security than the long-term changes in averages.
• Result in crisis and hardship; but just as important is “lost opportunity”
People living in dryland areas - 2 billionPeople dependent on degrading land - 1.5 billion
What is Predicted?
• It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation ….. will increase in the 21st century….
• There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21st century
Source: IPCC November 2011
50
10
5
3
20
c. 2050 c. 2100
West Africa 50
10
5
3
20
c. 2050 c. 2100
East Africa50
10
5
3
20
c. 2050 c. 2100
South Africa
Projected Changes in Extreme Precipitation
IPCC 2011
Number of Natural Disasters in Sub-Saharan Africa (1975-2005)
Source: The Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters/IEG World Bank
Source: The Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters
• Bangladesh (2007): – 1.6 million acres of cropland damaged– 25% winter rice crop destroyed
• Myanmar (2008)– 4 m storm surge inundated coastal
regions up to 40 km inland– Soil salination made 50,000 acres of
rice cropland unfit for planting
Source: Munich RE NatCatSERVICE
Weather catastrophes
Overall losses Insured losses
Message #2: Extremes can be expected in
many forms
Message #3 There are solutions……….
Source: IPCC November 2011
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