Climate Change an Overvie CPD Series 30 09 08 - Fra… · • EU adopts 2oC climate protection...
Transcript of Climate Change an Overvie CPD Series 30 09 08 - Fra… · • EU adopts 2oC climate protection...
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Climate Changean Overview
Frank McGovernClimate Change Unit,
Environmental Protection Agency
30th September 2008
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1. Roles of the EPA in climate change
2. A brief history of understanding human impactson climate
3. Responses, structures and processes
4. Current science and implications
5. Next steps: & Conclusions
Contents
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• National GHG emission inventories and projections• Implementation of aspects of the Kyoto Protocol e.g.
Emissions trading• Research on climate change
– GHG emissions/sinks– Impacts and adaptation– Socio-economic analyses and technologies– Observation systems
• Engagement with EU and UN bodies
1. Roles of the EPA
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A long history that effectively starts in …..• Carlow: with John Tyndall, 1850s• Sweden: Arrhous, estimate of doubling atmospheric CO2 levels
on global average temperature (climate sensitivity), 1860s• Hawaii: Keeling starts monitoring CO2 measurements, 1958• First World Climate Conference call for action by Governments• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1988
– Key body to provide authorative assessment of state of knowledge onclimate change
• First IPCC Assessment Report published in 1991
2 A brief history
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IPCC report considered at Earth Summit Rio de Janeiro 1991UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992
Objective• “To stabilise atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a level
that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference withthe climate system”.
• Time-frame:– Allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change,– Ensure that food production is not threatened
2 A brief history
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3 Response structures and processes
UN-Framework Convention Climate Change (UNFCCC)Conference of Parties (COP)
Subsidiary Body forSc ientific Technical and Soc io
Economic Advice (SBSTA)
Subsidiary Body forImplementation (SBI)
IntergovernmentalPanel on
Climate Change(IPCC)
Reports
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Annual meeting Ministers,Decision making PLENARY
CONTACT GROUPEU COORDINATION
EU EXPERT GROUP
3 Responses, structures and processes
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3. Responses, structures and processes
• IPCC Second Assessment Report 1995• EU adopts 2oC climate protection target
– i.e. “dangerous” climate change is avoided if globaltemerature does not increase by more than 2oCabove pre-industrial levels
– Linked to CO2 stabisation level of about 500ppm• First COP in Berlin: Berlin Mandate the basis for
Kyoto Protocol to UNFCCC
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3. Responses, structures and processes
IPCC Third assessment Report (TAR) 2001• Strengthened findings of previous reportHowever,• Focus on scientific uncertainty• Sustained attacks on Kyoto ProtocolOutcomes• Kyoto Protocol enters into legal force• Work on adaptation advanced
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• IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Published 2007– Lessons learned from TAR
• AR4 Synthese report finalised in November for presentionto UNFCCC in Bali -key science in place
• IPCC awarded Nobel PeacePrize along with Al Gore
• UNFCCC ready to decide on next steps
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4. Current science and implications
Figure SPM.3
•Warming unequivocal: 0.74°C over the last100 years
•Sea level rising:mainly due to thermalexpansion
•Snow and ice cover isreducing
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4. Current science and implications
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4. Current science and implications
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4. Current science and implications
Mauna Loa data
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1958 1963 1968 1974 1979 1985 1990 1996 2001
Car
bon
diox
ide
(ppm
)
Evidence of human impacts in CO2 records
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4. Current science and implications
Future climate conditions
Based on developmentscenarios (SRES)
A family of four followingdifferent developmentpathways
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4. Current science and implications
Total Global annual CO2emissions 1990 to 2100 (GtC/yr). FortySRES scenarios are presented by the four families (A1, A2, B1,and B2) and six scenario groups:
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Science and ActionFuture temperature increases from AR4
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4. Current science and implications
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4. Current science and implicationsEU Position: Dangerous climate change avoided if global temperatureincrease is less than 2oC above pre-industrial levels,• implies significant and immediate GHG emissions reductions
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Recent findings and developments
Where are we now?
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5 Next steps: global to regional to local
• UNFCCC Bali action plan in Place: with 2 year timetable
• Next COP meetings: Poznan, 2009 & Copenhagen, 2010
• EU position established based on 2C target- unilaterial 20% reduction by 2020 and- upto 30% in context of international agreement- Supported by a number of countries e.g. Norway
• SIDS consider 2C too much
• US engagment with UNFCCC is likley to change
• Participation by major developing economies is needed
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6 Conclusions• The challenge is immense and unprecedented
• The window of opportunity is narrow and closing rapidly
• The EU has provided leadership but global participation isneeded
• There is a need to mainstream climate change issues into allsectoral and national planning: this includes actions
• to reduce and eliminate GHG emissions:
(Carbon aware design is critical factor in this)
• to adapt to unavoidable impacts of climate change
• The private sector and institutions need to act
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EPA climate lecture21st Oct. 2008
Mansion House, DublinNew analysis of glaciers and ice
cover
Thank you
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• Meetings start 7:30 and run till very late…
• Remarkable and dramatic meeting