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Climate Change Adaptation Options for the Green Sectors of

Selected Zones in the NENA Region

Fawzi Karajeh- FAO RNE

Regional Workshop on Moving from Climate Change Impact Assessment

to Socio-Economic Vulnerability Assessment in the Arab Region

Beirut, Lebanon

8-10 June 2015

NENA Region

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NENA Region

Food demand is expected to increase 3X the current level.

NENA Region

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The climate variability and change impact is increasing the pressure on the

already limited resources of the Arab region.

Source: I

CARD

A

RICCAR’s Objectives

to assess the impact of climate change on freshwater resources

in the Arab Region …… seeks to identify the socio-economic and

environmental vulnerability caused by climate change impacts

on water resources based on regional specificities.

to provide a common platform for addressing and responding to

climate change impacts on freshwater resources in the Arab

region by serving as the basis for dialogue, priority setting and

policy formulation on climate change adaptation at the regional

level.

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vulnerability assessment?• the process of identifying, quantifying, and prioritizing

the vulnerabilities in a system.

– quantitative or qualitative value of risk related to a baseline or

preferred situation.

– assess the threats from CC to the population and to the

resources supporting green sector.

Technical, policy, economic, social, environment

• assessments are performed according to the following steps:

– document assets and resources in a system with the selected zone

– assigning quantifiable value- rank order- and importance to those

resources

– identifying the vulnerabilities or potential threats to each resource

– eliminating the most serious vulnerabilities for the most valuable

resources

Evapotranspiration change of three projections compared to the baseline period

1986-2005 (ACSAD) will be used as a baseline in the three selected zones.

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Climate Change and Adaptation Options for the Green

Sectors of Selected -Zones- in the NENA Region

Objectives:

1. To provide tailored adaptation measures for the green sectors to

include cropping, forestry, rangeland, and fishery production

systems derived for selected ‘zones’ of the Arab Region for pre-

defined climate change scenarios and targeted time-horizons

2. To build on the RICCAR framework by adopting innovative platform

to include FAO AquaCrop to identify pertinent adaptation measures

for informed policy and actions in the green sectors

Duration July 2014 – November 2015 ; (17 months)

Project Total Budget US$ 270,000

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Output

• Adaptation measures for the green sectors to include cropping,

forestry, rangeland, and fishery production systems derived for

selected ‘zones’ of the Arab Region:• Nile Delta of Egypt, Irrigated agriculture zone

• Karak governorate of Jordan, Rainfed agriculture and badia living

• Orontes Watershed- Lebanon, Mixed agriculture zone (rainfed with supplemental

irrigated agriculture; water harvesting; possible insights in the Bekaa Litani water shed)

• Other major ‘zones’ of relevance and particularly impacted by climate change (‘hot-

spots’)

Climate Change and Adaptation Options for the Green

Sectors of Selected -Zones- in the NENA Region

Progress made:

1. Integration of FAO crop module (AquaCrop) into RICCAR

Framework- is being done- training course was conducted.

2. Developed a detailed outline and parameters of the biophysical

and socioeconomic information and databases related the green

sector of the selected zones.

3. National specialists associated wit the Project are leading the

efforts of developing/compiling database and background of the

three selected green zones.

4. The FAO socioeconomic team is collecting and analyzing the

socioeconomic aspects of the selected zones.

5. Capacity development to the project modeler for the selected

zones is planned for the last week of March 201was conducted in

Marc 2015 at FAO HQ.

6. Consultation meetings among the Project’s multidisciplinary

national team are being implemented.

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Climate Change and Adaptation Options for the Green

Sectors of Selected -Zones- in the NENA Region

Selected Zone Report Contents1. Introduction

2. Country and Selected Zone’s geography, climate, hydrology, agriculture

3. Parameters describing field management practices

4. Parameters Describing Irrigation management practices

5. Country and Selected Zone Socio-economic baseline

6. Environmental policy and institutions

7. Climate adaptation measures for green sectors

8. Uncertainty in the biophysical collected data, previous assessments and analyses

9. Drivers for Change

10. Conclusions

11. List of references

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Nile Delta of Egypt, Irrigated agriculture zone

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Complexity of the delta

� 40,000 km canals

� 18,000 km drains

� 1 million km sub-surface drains?

� 1600 pumping stations

� 2 million farmers, etc

Diversions = 2-2.5 times water consumption: high recycling!

Gradual concentration of salts in drains

Gradual pollution of surface water

Gradual salinization of soils and groundwater

Gradual urbanization

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► Aquaculture has also become an important sector in Egypt in the past 15 years

► 2009 production reached 705,000 t, valued at US$1.35 billion (FAO 2010)

► two-thirds of the total fish consumption in the country

► Job creation, 37,000-43,000 people are running small-scale family fish farms and are employing around 25,000 workers.

Importance of aquaculture (often overlooked)

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Climate Change and Adaptation Options for the Green

Sectors of Selected -Zones- in the NENA Region

Anticipated CC Adaption Measures >>>> Time Horizons: currant (BL) ; 2030, 2060

Expected results:

• Strengthening the ‘Arab Regional Knowledge Hub’ on climate

and water;

• Build capacity for assessment on climate change impact on

food and water security in countries of the Region;

• Scale-up and accelerate implementation of coping strategies

(at policy, institutional and good practices level) to rise

farming- and food-system resilience;

• Strengthen National policies on climate change adaptation

NENA Region

Similarity Maps

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Similarity Maps

Source: ICARDA

Climate SMART Agriculture

Agriculture in developing countries must undergo a significant transformation in

order to meet the related challenges of food security, water scarcity, and climate

change.

CSA is to build synergies among food security, water

security, c. adaptation, and c. mitigation

w/ evidence base of gender responsive adequate and

best agricultural practices.

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Climate SMART Agriculture

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is a way to achieve short-and-

long-term agricultural development priorities in the face of climate

change and serves as a bridge to other development priorities.

� Sustainably increase agricultural productivity and incomes in

order to meet national food security and development goals

including better livelihoods of the poor resource’ farmers;

� Build resilience and the capacity of agricultural and food

systems to adapt to climate change (and variability);

� Seek opportunities to mitigate emissions from agriculture

(including crops, livestock and fisheries); and

� Managing climate risks on sustainable development.

Thank you!

Fawzi.Karajeh@FAO.ORG