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Climate Change –Adaptation Measures for Forest Ecosystems

Abdul Rahim Nik

Presentation Outline

• Introduction • the latest global GHG emissionthe latest global GHG emission• GHG Emissions in Malaysia

• Framework for Adaptation Measures• Climate Change Scenarios and Projection

• Suggested Adaptation Measures• Synergy with sustainable forest management

Way Forward• Way Forward

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Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

December 2009: 387.2 ppmSeptember 2010 (preliminary): 389.2 ppm39% above pre-industrial

GLOBAL MONTHLY MEAN CO2

lion (

ppm)

390

388

386

2009 1.622008 1.802007 2.142006 1.84

Annual Mea Growth Rate (ppm y-1)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Nove

mber

2010Pa

rts P

er M

ill

384

382

380

378

Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, 2010, NOAA/ESRL

1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1

1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1

1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1

2000 - 2009: 1.9 ppm y-1

2005 2.392004 1.602003 2.192002 2.402001 1.892000 1.22

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Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2009)

1.1±0.7 PgC y-1 4.1±0.1 PgC y-1

47%

+7.7±0.5 PgC y-1

2.4 PgC y-1

27%Calculated as the residual of

all other flux components

26%2.3±0.4 PgC y-1

Average of 5 models

Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

300

350

400

GHG Emission and Removal, Malaysia: Observed and Projections

100

150

200

250

mil

ton

Emissionsink

0

50

1995 2000 2005 2007 2010 2020

Year

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Emission Per Capita and Carbon Intensity

118 Emis/cap Carbonint

0.5

8

13

rbon

inte

nsity

ssio

n pe

r cap

ita

03

8

2000 2005 2007 2010 2020

Ca

Emis

Year

• Adaptation - adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual

Adaptation-mitigation synergies

u a syste s espo se to actuaor expected climate change or their effects

•Mitigation – reduction of GHG sources & emissions and enhancing sinks& emissions and enhancing sinks

• synergy is intrinsic to ecosystem-based approach

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Framework for assessment of impacts of climate change and formulation of adaptation options

• Scenario of future of climate change forcing (eg SRES)

• Climate scenarios from General Circulation• Climate scenarios from General Circulation Models (GCM)

• Ecological scenarios from DGVMs or other ecological models

• Translation of ecological results into growth and disturbance effects

• Economic impacts

Climate-Change Scenarios• SRES – Special Report on Emission

scenarios – (pop growth, GDP, emissions)Second Malaysia National Communication• Second Malaysia National Communication• National obligation to report to UNFCCC• GHG inventory• Planned mitigation and adaptation Measures• Strategies to address climate changeg g

• Other assessments – ADB, IDRC & SIDA, EPU

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Future Average Monthly Temperature – NC2 Study

Max 30 5.7%

Mean 27 4.7%

Surface temp increase 1.5 – 2.0 C by 2050

Min 22 6.7%

Max 31 6.2%

Mean 29 4.7%

Min 26 5.2%

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Future Average Monthly Rainfall – NC2 Study

Max 1130 21.0%

NE region annual rainfall increase by 9%

Mean 240 7.9%

Min 11 -30%

Central region rainfall decrease by 5%

Max 560 -6.6%

Mean 180 -1.7%

Min 8 -36%

Future Climate Projections (Precip)

14

Five-year Moving Averages for Annual Rain Days

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Biome Distribution in South East Asia (1990 – 2100)

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Forest cover –B2 Scenario: 1990 – 93%; 2050 – 92%; 2100 – 88% 88%

Projected Changes in Major Vegetation Types by 2100

High CO2 emission A1Shown if >20%

Low CO2 emission B2

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Modelling of Forest Ecosystem Response and Vulnerability

• Understanding recent changes in climate and forest ecosystems remains a complicated taskcomplicated task• Many drivers and dimensions of

environmental changes operating simultaneously

• Interactions can have positive, negative or synergistic consequences for forestsynergistic consequences for forest ecosystems

• Interactions with natural disturbance agents (disease or pest outbreaks)

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Forest Responses and Vulnerabilities to Climate Change

• Adequacy of available information to support quantitative assessment of the impacts and vulnerabilityimpacts and vulnerability• Lack of quantitative information about

nature, extent and causes of forest ecosystem change

• Uncertainties about relative contributions of climate change & other factorsclimate change & other factors

• Uncertainties about contributions about relcontributions of natural and human factors

Climate Change Projections• Dynamic Global Vegetation Model – DGVM

• Project future land vegetation under any climate change scenario

• Represents forests only at the biome level• Patch Dynamic Model – operates at species

level, but limited geographical coverage

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Effects of Climate on Forest Productivity and Biodiversity

• Need a long term data to detect changes on stand structure, aboveground biomass, net productivity

• Long term ecological plots proved useful eg Pasoh and L bi 50 h l tLambir 50 ha plot

Aboveground Biomass Changes

5

6

7

8

9 Pasoh

ha/y

r)

6

8

10

Lambir

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1987 1992 1998

Growth (Mg/ha/yr) Mortality Net

Rat

e (M

g/

-2

0

2

4

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Growth (Mg/ha/yr) Mortality Net

• Aboveground biomass growth rate• AGB mortality rate•Increased mortality due to drought•Fast growing group had greater mortality than slow growing

Chave et al 2008

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SFM and Adaptation to Climate Change

• SFM provides a flexible, robust, credible and well-tested framework for simultaneously reducing carbonsimultaneously reducing carbon emissions, sequestering carbon and enhancing adaptation to climate change

• Mainstreaming adaptation strategies into national development programme

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Integration of Thematic Elements of SFM in adaptation strategies

1. Extent of forest resources• maintaining significant forest cover and stocking;

2. Biological diversity-its conservation and management;3. Forest health and vitality-reducingy g

fires, pollution, invasive species, pests and diseases;4. Productive functions

• maintaining production of wood and non-wood forestproducts;

5. Productive functions-in relation to soil, hydrological andaquatic systems;

6. Socio-cultural and economic functions6. Socio cultural and economic functions• the support provided by forests to the economy and

to society; and7. Legal, policy and institutional framework- to support the

above themes

Before logging=213 t/ha

Carbon retention from Reduced Impact Logging (RIL) practices

Putz, et al,. 2007

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Adaptation MeasuresThematic Measures that may be considered to achieve following

adaptation objectives:• Management Objective of Maintaining (or increasing) Forest Area.• Management Objective of Conserving Biological Diversity of Forest

Ecosystems• Management Objective of Maintaining the Productive Capacity of

Forest Ecosystems• Management Objective of Maintaining the Health and vitality of

Forest Ecosystems• Management Objective of conserving and maintaining the soil and

water Resources Forest Ecosystems• Management Objective of Maintaining Forest Contributions to Global

Carbon Cycles

Impact Adaptation OptionsAlteration of plant and animal distribution

Minimize fragmentation of habitat and maintainconnectivityMaintain representative forest types across

Adaptation Options to Achieve the Management Objective of Conserving Biological Diversity of Forest Ecosystems

Maintain representative forest types acrossenvironmental gradients in reservesIdentify and protect functional groups and keystonespeciesStrategically increase size and number of protectedareas, especially in ‘high-value’ areasProvide buffer zones for adjustment of researchboundariesProtect most highly threatened species ex situ

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Adaptation Options to Achieve the Management Objective of Maintaining the Health and vitality of Forest Ecosystems

Impact Adaptation OptionsIncreased frequencyand severity of forestpestilence

Adjust harvest schedules to harvest stands most vulnerableto insect outbreaks

Improve governance of frontier forest areas to reduce therisk of fires associated with settlement

Plant genotypes tolerant of drought, insects and/or disease

Breed for pest resistance and for a wider tolerance to arange of climate stresses and extremes

Employ silvicultural techniques to promote forestproductivity and increase stand vigourp y g

Increase the genetic diversity of trees used in plantationsEstablish landscape-level targets of structural or age-class,of landscape connectivity for species movement, and ofpassive or active measures to minimize the potentialimpacts of fire, insects and diseases

Way Forward• Forests exert a strong influence in the global

carbon cycle and vice versa climate change is already affecting forest ecosystemsy g y

• SFM provides an effective framework for forest-based adaptation & mitigation of climate change

• More rigorous and interdisciplinary R&D in CC integrating ecological, economic and social aspectsp

• Mainstreaming forest adaptation into policy framework

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Thank YouThank You