Climate and Harmful Algal Blooms in Lake Erie · 2013. 12. 20. · Stumpf et al. 2012 ....
Transcript of Climate and Harmful Algal Blooms in Lake Erie · 2013. 12. 20. · Stumpf et al. 2012 ....
Climate and Harmful Algal Blooms in Lake Erie
Lake Erie 22 July 2011
Richard P. Stumpf NOAA
National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Silver Spring, MD
2013 Nov Climate NOAA Coastal Ocean Science
2003, “perhaps the most severe in Lake Erie’s recent history” (EPA)
2011 cyanobacteria bloom, worst in decades, visible from space
09 October : Data from MERIS (European Space Agency)
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2012 bloom wasn’t.
10 September, data from MODIS
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Potential (Large) Areas of Concern in Great Lakes
Green Bay
Saginaw Bay
Western Lake Erie
2008 bloom intensity
low high 105
cells ml-1 106 104
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MERIS on the ENVISAT-1 satellite
1150 km
ENVISAT-1
Coverage every 2 days from 2002 to April 2012 launch of replacement (Sentinel-3) late next year
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satellite algorithms (MERIS data) Standard blue-green algorithms are sensitive to absorption by many components.
We use Red/NIR and curvature (shape); insensitive to sediment and CDOM
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MERIS can see more wavelengths of light, allowing us to detect and quantify blooms
13 Sep 2010
True color, difficult to identify and quantify
Red and near-infrared wavelengths help
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This information gives a cyanobacteria index, “CI”, which equates to concentration
True color
Cyano Index (CI)
13 Sep 2010
low high 105
cells ml-1 106 104
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Bulletins for Lake Erie bloom To get bulletin, search for “NOAA Lake Erie bloom bulletin” Transports with the NOAA Great Lakes Coastal Forecast System
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Annual blooms from the worst 30-day period, MERIS 2002-2011; MODIS 2012
Log-scaled display
MODIS
WHO risk threshold
Modified from Stumpf et al., 2012 PLoSONE
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Bloom severity over 11 years from satellite; sum of concentrations in western Lake Erie
CI of 1 ~ 1020 cells Microcystis
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Cyanobacteria like warm water; strong growth > 20ºC; minimal growth < 15ºC
Paerl et al., 2011 (Science of the Total Environment)
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Climatologic Temperatures in Lake Erie
Too cold
cool
Good growth
Excellent growth
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Temperature gives season but not-interannual (avg temperature over western basin)
Years with small bloom
Years with large
bloom
Stumpf et al., 2012 PLoSONE
2011
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Excessive phosphorus promotes cyano blooms
Downing et al., 2001; Can.J.Fish.Auat.Sci .
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Use Maumee River Discharge to make seasonal predictions; largest tributary to Lake Erie.
Toledo
Dayton
USGS Ohio Fact sheet FS-035-96)
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Understand blooms with nutrient load data
30+ year program measuring nutrients in Ohio rivers (Pete Richards, Dave Baker have led that effort)
National Center for Water Quality Research
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Dissolved phosphorus, has a trend but much variability
Data from Pete Richards
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Total phosphorus follows discharge; Spring (Mar-Jun).
Maumee River total phosphorus (m.tons)
Maumee River average discharge (m3/s)
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Spring loads matter. Models predict CI (bloom severity) from spring discharge
& loads. See Stumpf et al., PLoSONE 2012
CI
Q model (based on Q-P correlation) Stumpf et al. 2012
Experimental SRP-Q model
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2012 seasonal forecast
“…calls for a smaller bloom of the cyanobacteria HAB this summer, compared to recent severe blooms. Last year’s [2011] bloom, one of the largest in decades, covered … an area the size of Long Island Sound. This year’s [2012] mild bloom is expected to about one-tenth the size of last year’s.”
2012
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Observed against model (and 2012 forecast) 2012 mild, but not as mild as model predicted
observed modeled
2012 forecast
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2012: Unusual in several ways. Follows 2011 (which was nearly 3x more intense than the next worst bloom)
09 October : Data from MERIS (European Space Agency)
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And other unusual events, cyano bloom in central basin in early July (!) disconnected
from western basin
10 July 2012 (bloom identified by Ohio EPA)
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2012 had no ice
16 February, MODIS (from NASA Rapidfire)
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This has happened before preceding both non-bloom years (2002 & 2005),
and a bloom year (1998).
(graph from Wang et al., 2012 J.Climate, Ice cover sq km)
bloom No-bloom 1998 was predicted by spring load model
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Lots of “unusual climate” in 2012
2012 anomalous spring diatom bloom (water supply problems) Anomalous early July central basin bloom Follows biggest bloom ever (remarkably, that hasn’t happened previously in any years)
no ice
wet winter
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2013: model uses Maumee River spring loads (2013 load falls between 2012 & 2011)
Data from National Center for Water Quality Research
Maumee River total phosphorus (m.tons)
Maumee River average discharge (m3/s)
average discharge based on USGS data (m3/s)
dissolved phosphorus load (m.tons)
total phosphorus load (m.tons)
2013 2013
2013
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2013 Forecast: Significant bloom. similar to 2003, much milder than 2011
2013
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2013 prediction for western Lake Erie “significant bloom” but 1/5 of 2011.
Definitely a significant bloom. Severity to be calculated this winter.
low medium high concentration
2013 on Sep 10 2011 for comparison
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Climate patterns
We can estimate bloom severity. This allows for models of impacts under future
scenarios (assuming other things don’t change, like invasive species, etc.)
Spring load matters; caused by runoff and discharge.
Precip, snow melt, etc. influence nutrient runoff. Temperature allows for blooms, but does not drive
size (yet). Longer hot periods, longer blooms. >20 ºC: bloom appears; persists until <15 ºC.
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Planning for climate change and variability will help the task of restoring and maintaining a Great Lake
Assistance from NASA Decision Support, Public Health NNH08ZDA001N
Photo from Gibraltar Island, Ohio Sea Grant