www.ccst.inpe.bro

Chefe, CCST INPE

Climate and Global Change: MCT-INPE´s scientific

agenda

Jose A. Marengo

Head, CCST INPE

jose.marengo@inpe.br

Campinas, SP, September 2011

Deforestation

62%

Agriculture

22%

Energy

16%

Source: WRI,

2007

Principais Desastres Naturais no Brasil 2000-2007

14%

3%

6%

58%

11%8%

Seca Epidemia Temperatura Extrema

Inundação Deslizamento Vendavais

fonte Vulnerabilidade Ambiental / Rozely Santos, organizadora. – Brasilia: MMA, 2007.

Principais Desastres Naturais no Brasil 2000-2007

14%

3%

6%

58%

11%8%

Seca Epidemia Temperatura Extrema

Inundação Deslizamento Vendavais

Desastres naturais no Brasil

The CCST is the neswest center for research, development andinnovation at INPE.

Mission: To generate interdisciplinary knowledge for a national developmentand to cope with the environmental impacts of global change in Brazil and theworld. To provide high quality technical and scientifical information so toorient public enviromental policies for mitigation and adaptation to globalenviromental changes.

Focus

1-To broad the current scientific agenda of the institute beyond climate

change, with a unique and innovative approach based on the interface

between global change and the the country´s development.

2-To provide knowledge to reduce the impacts of global and regional

environmental change

Main tools: observational systems and complex models of the global

environmental systema

.

Development of the Brazilian models of the Global Climate System (MBSCG)

INPE-CCST leads a multi-institutional and international effort to build the MBSCG, that incorporates the components of the climate systems (dynamic vegetation, surface processes, atmospheric chemistry, aerosols, ice, marine biogeochemistry and the carbon cycleinto the CPTEC atmosphere-oceancoupled model being run at the newINPE CRAY-XT6 Tupã supercomputer

A “World-Class” model of the global environmental system

Annual Cycle of the Arctic Sea ice

• Brazilian contributions

– Hot plume rise model

– Fire model

• Long integrations with the fire model ( (MOHC/INPE) and hot plume rise (INPE)

• 200 years each run, 10 members: • Contro run• Fire model, • Hote plume, • Fire model coupled with the Hot Plume

Brazilian contribution to the IPCC-AR5:UK HadGEM2-ES/Brazil INPE run at the CRAY-XT6-Tupã

Future climate change scenarios generated by the HadGEM2-ES/INPE are important for the understanding of the global climate systems and will consolidate the Brazilian participation at the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report 5 (IPCC AR5).

ELAT Atmospheric Electricity

Lightning activity increase significantly withair temperature raise in urban regions, at a rate of 30% increase per 1°C at decadaltime scales

Ranking of cities with more LightningAccording to Elat, observations confirm that large urban censters tend to concentrate and amplify theoccurrences of storms with electric discharge (Lightning) The Southern Southeastern and parts of the west central regions of Brazil show a large incidence ofLightning during 2009-2010, considering only cities with more than 200,000 people in large urban areas, with na increase of 11% in relation to the last 4 years.The results show that in 2009-2010, a large part of the 10 districts with large incience of Lightning are located in the metropolitan region of the city of São Paulo.

Environmental Biogeochemistry

To integrate studies related to the atmosphere and its interaction with varioius ecosystems to broad the understanding of natural and anthropic processes that act in terrestrial and acquatic systems, such as emission/production of greenhouse gases, trace gases, aerosols, ozone layer, UV radiation, and deposition of chemical species.

MANSO 2003-2004

MANSO 2006-2007

SERRA DA

MESA

ITUMBIARA

CORUMBÁ

FURNASMASCARENHAS

L. C. B DE

CARVALHO

FUNIL

Série1 0,44 0,27 0,80 0,02 0,76 0,33 0,12 0,02 0,00

-0,20

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

Mto

nC

O2

Eq

/yea

r

Total Annual Emissions CO2-Eq.

Carbon balance in tropical dams

Dams under study

Renewable energies

To act in an interinstitutional and interdiscplinar approach, in studies of alternative energy in the context of climate and environment, together with the electric sector, society and government sectors that have to do with electric planning and decision making

Generation of electric energy in Brazil(CEPEL)

•To study the climatic and environmentalimpsctf of the use of fossil fuel energy andconventional energies (hidraulic, nuclear, biomass...)

•To study forms of renewable energy suchas eolic and solar

•To develop process and methods to quantify and project the availability ofnatural renewable energies

Atlas of Solar Energy and SWERA project(PNUMA-GEF)

Projections of wind potential in Brazil-future climate

Wind speed projections at 10 m generated by the downscaling of the HadAM3P model using the HadRM3P regional model (Schaeffer et al. 2008).

Projections until the end of the 21st Century show changes in extremes of rainfall more important than in the total of rainfall

ve regional variability

Increase in thefrequency of

intense rainfall in 2071-2100

relativeto 1961-90

Future climate change scenarios in South America

Increase in the number of

consecutivedry days in2071-2100 relative to

1961-90

%

Rainfall changes (%) in 2071-2100 relativeto 1961-90.

Amazônia and Northeast Brazil rainfall deficiency

Southeastern South Americarainfallincrease

Future climate change scenarios in South America derived using the Eta CPTEC 40 km regional model, forced with the BC of the HadCM3 global model, (A1B) suggest that climate change show regional variability

Future climate change scenarios in South America

Total precipitation

Heavy precipitation Consecutive Dry Days

Precipitation-Evaporation

Mean air temperature

Future climate

change

scenarios in

Brazil for 2071-

2100

From Eta 40 km model

Results for average energy using the SUISHI-

O model: deviation from the reference

projections

Results of flow indicate a general negative trend in flow

with varying seasonal impacts.

However, because of the pluriannual reservoir

capacities, the energy generation results

do not fall as much in light of the changes induced by a

new rainfall regime.

In the major Paraná Basin, the difference in energy

generation between the A2 and B2 scenarios and the

reference projections are all within 2.5%, being the

difference greater in the B2 scenario.

Apart from the Paraná River and the Grande Basin,

which show a slight increase in energy production in

the A2 scenario, the results show a fall in energy

production throughout the analysis period.

In the Basins located in the northeast and centre-west

regions (Parnaíba, São Francisco

and Tocantins-Araguaia), the energy results also show

a decrease in generation as the

consequence of the lower flow inputs to the

hydroelectric plants of these basins.

Just as the flow results, the São Francisco Basin

seemed to be the most affected by

global climate change. The decrease in energy

production would reach more than 7% in

the B2 scenario.

Schaeffer et al. 2008

AMZ:+1.9°C

SF: +1.5°C

PAR: +1.6°C

+1.7 °C

+1.3 °C 418 ppm

AMZ:+3.5°C

SF: +3.1°C

PAR: +2.7°C

+3.0 °C

+2.5 °C 523 ppm

AMZ:+5.0°C

SF: +4.0°C

PAR: +3.8°C

+4.2 °C

+3.3 °C 638 ppm

% change in annual

rainfall relative to

1961-90 mean

Change in

annual mean

temperature in

the basins and

Brazil

Change in

annual mean

temperature:

Global

Atmospheric

CO2

concentrations

Decade

(30-year mean

centred on)

10%

12%

=

2020s

2050s

2080s23%

32%

2%

18%

31%

=

Resultados Esperados: Impactos sobre o emprego municipal decorrentes da mudança climática (diferença em relação ao

tendencial em 2050, pontos percentuais)Exemplo :Nordeste

Surface-biosphere-atmosphere-land use interactions

Lan use and

land use

change

Extremes of

weather and

climate

Fire

Climate

Change

(GHG)

Interactions-Territorial planning-GHG emission estimates -Biomes and vegetation dynamics

Interactions-Impacts and vulnerability of ecosystems -Tipping points and ecosystem collapse -Strategies for adaptation

Interactions-Detection and attribution of climatevariability-Future climate projections using climatemodels-Uncertainties in climate mdoels and in climate scenarios

Interactions:-Spatial and temporal representation of landuse and cover using remote sensingtechniques-Dinamic of land use and land cover-Modeling of land use and land cover

To study the multiple interactions between land and atmosphere , biosphere, andland use using observation and the state of the art in environmental modeling

Question: Is there a “tipping point” in the increase of GHG concentration (natural and anthropogenic causes) and deforestation (anthropogenic causes) to induce abrupt changes to the new biome-climate stable equilibrium?

Natural vegetation-Present Natural vegetation-2100

Season All Pasture All Soybean

JJA -27.5% -39.8%

SON -28.1% -39.9%

Precipitation

Amazonia - PASTURE

Area: East/Northeast

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Deforestation Area (%)

Re

lati

ve

Pre

cip

ita

tio

n (

p/p

0)

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

Amazonia - SOYBEAN

Area: East/Northeast

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Deforestation Area (%)

Rela

tive P

recip

itati

on

(p

/p0)

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

PASTURE SOYBEAN

Precipitation Anomaly (%)Sampaio et al., 2007

The reduction in precipitation is larger during the dry season, and is

more evident when the deforested area is larger than 40% !

• Stability of the hydrological cycle and climate in the region• Stability of soil and agriculture• Carbon storage, storing and sequestering carbon• Moisture recycling and transport to other regions • Keeping large biodiversity • Opportunities for ecological services and sustainable use of

resources

Main environmental services provided by tropical forest

Need of a new model for the tropics - Is there hope beyond the traditional model of development?

- How to develop the Amazon sustainably?

Timber

Regional Plan

Soy farners

Small Holders

Water Resources Biodiversity

and

environmental

services

Ranchers

SUNFLOWER

NORTH

WEST CENTRAL

NORTHEAST

SOUTHEAST

SOUTH

PALM

ANIMAL FAT

SOY

RAPESEED

CASTOR

OIL

COTTON

PEANUTS

Biofuels crops+sugar cane

With respect to Brazil’s large urban areas, studies detected that in the city of São Paulo extreme rainfall events (greater than 30 and 50 mm/day) have become more frequent and intense since 1960, and that this increase can be attributed more to urbanization rather than to climate change caused by global warming.

Intense precipitation events at the IAG-USP Agua Funda

station in the city of São Paulo 1933-2010

2080-90

Projections for 2080-90 show that the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (MRSP) may experience increase in number of days with rainfall above 30 mm. The MRSP may be in the future more vulnerable to changes in extremes, with greater risk of floods, landslides and impacting the population (health, housing transportation).

With respect to Brazil’s large urban areas, studies detected that in the city of São Paulo extreme rainfall events (greater than 30 and 50 mm/day) have become more frequent and intense since 1960, and that this increase can be attributed more to urbanization rather than to climate change caused by global warming.

Urbanization and Megacities

Projections for 2080-90 show that the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (MRSP) may experience increase in number of days with rainfall above 30 mm. The MRSP may be in the future more vulnerable to changes in extremes, with greater risk of floods, landslides and impacting the population (health, housing transportation).

Projeções de mudanças em chuvas extremas (R20) e

impactos na RMSP

R20 (

dia

s P

>2

0 m

m)

2030-40 2050-60 2080-90

Mudanças em R20 para, futuro relativo a 1961-90

Early Alert System for forecasting of natural disasters-present and future

Areas with risk of flooding in the Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo

An important development in relation to impacts and security of population living in areas under risk of natural disasters of meteorological origin. – Second version of the o SISMADEN (www. dpi.inpe.br/sismaden).

This system provides a monitoring in detail of natural disasters and risk assessments, due to weather related phenomena in the present, as a tool with a potential to be used in the planning of future risks, associated with warmer and more extreme future climates.

The SISMADEM will facilitate information to various

levels of government than can help un understand and the

risks associated with natural disasters un urban and rural

areas, so alerts can be issued and lives can be saved.

Hydrology

To understand how changes in climate andland use affect the hydrological responseat various spatial scales, based onobservational studies.To improve the representation of theseprocesses in numerical models to simlatethem in the present and project them in the future.

Studies at macro basin levels:

Ji-Paraná, Tocantins, Tapajós, Madeira and Purus River basins

-Impacts of land use changes and climate change

-Large Scale hydrological modeling -Parameterization of surface processes

(landscape, vegetation, etc.)-Application of the Eta regional model in

studies on land use changes

MadeiraTocantins–Araguaia Purus

Desertifiction in Northeast Brazil (NEB) and policies to combat drought and desertification: Present and future

What do we need to improve, so we better know NEB? •Re-interpretation of Geology maps at 90m•Re-interpretation of Geomorphology maps at 90m•Re-interpretation of Soil maps at 90m•Re-interpretation of Vegetation maps at 90m•Topography maps at 90m •To build Landsat/MODIS mosaics in critical areas

Aridity index for

NEB for the

present (1979-

2003) and future

(2015-39 and 2075-

99) (Marengo et al

2011).

Semiarid

Linking climate to adaptation over time

Climate system

Impacted activity

Socio-economicsystem

Current climate

Future climate

Future adaptations

Current adaptations

Coping under climate variability and change

Coping

Range

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Stationary Climate &

Coping RangeChanging Climate

Planning Horizon

Coping

Range

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Adaptation

Changing Climate Stationary Climate &

Coping Range

Coping

Range

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Stationary Climate &

Coping RangeChanging Climate

Planning Horizon

Coping

Range

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Adaptation

Changing Climate Stationary Climate &

Coping Range

Years

Rain

, te

mp

era

ture

Incorporating adaptation thinking

in policymaking: some examples

Incentives for making existing schemes available to small/marginal farmers– Credit, insurance, subsidies,

Cross-sectoral dialogue– Tail-end villages in command area

Agri-based industries and markets– Rice mills, purchase ceilings,

Support for traditional options– Teevra crop on residual soil moisture, fruits and vegetables in

homestead

Development is the best form of adaptation– Education, health facilities, electricity, roads

Developing adaptation efforts

Effective adaptation strategies require understanding of regional / local dimensions of vulnerability

Climate change does not occur in isolation –multiple stresses

Domestic policies can enhance or constrain farmers’ ability to adapt to climate change

Adapting to climate variability and climate change

Adaptation and sustainable development policies

Future research directions

• Further exploration of multi-tiered research approach – Multiple climate scenarios, extreme events

– Application to other sectors / specific regions

– Econometric modelling of determinants of vulnerability

• Focus on policy aspects at level of state departments (including cross-sectoral issues)

• Capacity building and demonstration of adaptation options

Support for large scale projects: INCT for Climate Change

Rede Clima(Brazilian Network of research in Climate Change)

The Rede Clima was created by the Ministry of Science and Technology in 2007. Its objetive is to generate and disseminate new knowlege about climate change in Brazil, in such a way that the country can respond to the challenges imposed by climate change, and also to prepare for international negotiations on climate.

New sub-networks: -Natural disasters-Oceans-Environmental services provided by natural ecosystems

Coastal regions

Economy of Climate Change

Environmental modeling

Health

Renewable energy

Regional development

Megacities

Water Resources

Biodiversity and ecosystems

Agriculture