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Climate affairs ppt for iafs 3000 Part 1 [email protected].
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Transcript of Climate affairs ppt for iafs 3000 Part 1 [email protected].
![Page 2: Climate affairs ppt for iafs 3000 Part 1 mickeyglantz@hotmail.com.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649ead5503460f94bb4faa/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Climate Affairs:“Usable Science” for Society?
Michael H. Glantz
ccb.colorado.edu
www.fragilecologies.com
Consortium for Capacity Building
INSTAAR, Univ. of Colorado
Boulder, Colorado
15 January 2009
![Page 3: Climate affairs ppt for iafs 3000 Part 1 mickeyglantz@hotmail.com.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649ead5503460f94bb4faa/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The Climate century ?
![Page 4: Climate affairs ppt for iafs 3000 Part 1 mickeyglantz@hotmail.com.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649ead5503460f94bb4faa/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
All eyes are on the atmosphere
![Page 5: Climate affairs ppt for iafs 3000 Part 1 mickeyglantz@hotmail.com.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649ead5503460f94bb4faa/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Aspects of Climate(what is missing in the graphic?)
• Climate variability
• Climate fluctuations
• Climate change
• “Deep” climate change
• Extreme events
• Seasonality
![Page 6: Climate affairs ppt for iafs 3000 Part 1 mickeyglantz@hotmail.com.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649ead5503460f94bb4faa/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Perceptions of Climate
• Climate as a resource• Climate as a hazard• Climate as a constraint
Every society climate has a mix of all three, but the proportions vary from one country to the next and one decade to the next.
![Page 7: Climate affairs ppt for iafs 3000 Part 1 mickeyglantz@hotmail.com.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649ead5503460f94bb4faa/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
…as a hazard• This is the way that we tend to view climate• Its anomalies can often lead to death and
destruction• There is also a misery factor (lost photos, having
to live in a gym for weeks, loss of pets, heirloom losses, etc
• Governments most concerned about climate as a hazard.
• Governments have responsibility for early warnings.
![Page 8: Climate affairs ppt for iafs 3000 Part 1 mickeyglantz@hotmail.com.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649ead5503460f94bb4faa/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
… as a resource
• Adequate and reliable precipitation, temperature, seasonality
• It provides for adequate food production and water resources in a region
• Experience from similar ecosystems • Reliable forecasts on all time scales • The careful use of climate information can
make a hostile climate less so
![Page 9: Climate affairs ppt for iafs 3000 Part 1 mickeyglantz@hotmail.com.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649ead5503460f94bb4faa/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
… as a boundary constraint
• In the early 1900s climate was viewed as a constraint• Personally• Nationally
• Hot and tropical climates, it was argued, made the people lazy and unproductive in a workplace, whereas seasonal climates of the Northern Hemisphere were invigorating to people and nations
• This view was challenged as racist but was more or less in place until the mid 1970s!!
• Global warming will change present constraints while creating new ones
![Page 10: Climate affairs ppt for iafs 3000 Part 1 mickeyglantz@hotmail.com.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649ead5503460f94bb4faa/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
http://video.aol.com/video-detail/chris-farley-el-nino/1340308260
El Niño Process
![Page 11: Climate affairs ppt for iafs 3000 Part 1 mickeyglantz@hotmail.com.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649ead5503460f94bb4faa/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
El Niño as a Hazard-Spawner
• El Niño is a hazard-spawner
– It is associated with droughts, floods, fires, and disease outbreaks worldwide
• La Niña is also a spawner of natural hazards
![Page 12: Climate affairs ppt for iafs 3000 Part 1 mickeyglantz@hotmail.com.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649ead5503460f94bb4faa/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
El Niño comes of age(October 1997)
![Page 13: Climate affairs ppt for iafs 3000 Part 1 mickeyglantz@hotmail.com.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649ead5503460f94bb4faa/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Fostering Climate Affairs (why now?)
• Climate issues:– Increasingly important to
governments, corporations, foundations and the public,
• Perceptions:– Climate anomalies are becoming
more frequent, more costly and more deadly
• Global warming:– Looming in the 21st century
![Page 14: Climate affairs ppt for iafs 3000 Part 1 mickeyglantz@hotmail.com.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649ead5503460f94bb4faa/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
The “Affairs” template
• Affairs: business, matters, activities• Business affairs, international affairs, rural affairs,
veteran affairs, etc.
• Here, I use the “Affairs” concept as a multidisciplinary catch-all phrase, a check list of sorts
• The central aspects include:• Science, impacts on ecosystems, impacts on societies,
politics, policy & law, economics, ethics & equity• Water affairs, desert affairs, coastal urban affairs, etc.
![Page 15: Climate affairs ppt for iafs 3000 Part 1 mickeyglantz@hotmail.com.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649ead5503460f94bb4faa/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Global warming and extreme weather
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Climate-sensitive sectors
• Food production• Crops• Fish• Livestock
• Water resources• Quantity• Quality
• Energy• Public health & safety• Economy• Environment• Other
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Daily burden to fetch water and firewood
Africa –water gatherers India – firewood gatherers
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What citizens should know
• Climate science• Society’s impacts on climate
• Climate impacts• On ecosystems• On societies
• Climate policy & law• Climate politics• Climate economics• Climate ethics & equity
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US Global Change Research Program, 2000
How scientists see the climate system
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Climate Science
• Understand the climate system
• Understand its components
IIASA
• Society is a component
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Time Series for El Niño (red) and La Niña (blue)
Before 1976 more blue than red; after 1976 more red than blue.Red : El NinoBlue: La Nina
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Media Headlines Worldwide: El Niño 1997-98
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Climate Impacts
• On land and sea• On societies
• Rich and Poor• Developed and Developing• North & South
• Human impacts on the atmosphere• Heat island effect• Greenhouse gas emissions
• Methods to separate natural from societal impacts
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Extremes occur often on globe in any given year
Climate change More extremes, more frequency, more intensity, new locations
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Hurricane Katrina(August 29, 2005)
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Venezuelan Mud slidesDecember 1999