CLIC-ILC meeting on costs Cost learning curves: from theory to practice Ph. Lebrun Webex meeting 17...
-
Upload
alison-james -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of CLIC-ILC meeting on costs Cost learning curves: from theory to practice Ph. Lebrun Webex meeting 17...
![Page 1: CLIC-ILC meeting on costs Cost learning curves: from theory to practice Ph. Lebrun Webex meeting 17 July 2009.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070400/56649f125503460f94c259b7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
CLIC-ILC meeting on costsCLIC-ILC meeting on costsCost learning curves: from theory to Cost learning curves: from theory to
practicepractice
Ph. Lebrun
Webex meeting17 July 2009
![Page 2: CLIC-ILC meeting on costs Cost learning curves: from theory to practice Ph. Lebrun Webex meeting 17 July 2009.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070400/56649f125503460f94c259b7/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
TheoryTheory
• T.P. Wright, Factors affecting the cost of airplanes, Journ. Aero. Sci. (1936)
• Unit cost c(n) of nth unit producedc(n) = c(1) nlog
2a
with a = « learning percentage », i.e. remaining cost fraction when production is doubled
• Cumulative cost of first nth unitsC(n) = c(1) n1+log
2a / (1+log2a)
with C(n)/n = average unit cost of first nth units produced
• n = number per production line ≠ total number in project
![Page 3: CLIC-ILC meeting on costs Cost learning curves: from theory to practice Ph. Lebrun Webex meeting 17 July 2009.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070400/56649f125503460f94c259b7/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Typical learning percentage Typical learning percentage valuesvalues
(NASA Learning Curve Calculator)(NASA Learning Curve Calculator)
• R. Stewart, Cost estimators reference manual, Wiley (1995)• Structure of manufacturing mix
– 75% hand assembly/25% machining = 80% learning – 50% hand assembly/50% machining = 85% – 25% hand assembly/75% machining = 90%
• Technology domain – Aerospace 85% – Shipbuilding 80-85% – Complex machine tools for new models 75-85% – Repetitive electronics manufacturing 90-95% – Repetitive machining or punch-press operations 90-95% – Repetitive electrical operations 75-85% – Repetitive welding operations 90% – Raw materials 93-96% – Purchased parts 85-88%
![Page 4: CLIC-ILC meeting on costs Cost learning curves: from theory to practice Ph. Lebrun Webex meeting 17 July 2009.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070400/56649f125503460f94c259b7/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
RealityReality
• Learning percentage a integrates effects of different nature– Labour efficiency and on-the-job training (for stable staff
population!)– Standardization of production process and method improvement– Technology-driven learning and increase in equipment productivity– Changes in the resource mix– Product redesign– Value chain effects– Network building, shared-experience effects
• Exponential curve « too smooth to be true »– New products– Technology breakthroughs– Abrupt changes in production process– Staff turnover– Saturation plateau for finite production series
![Page 5: CLIC-ILC meeting on costs Cost learning curves: from theory to practice Ph. Lebrun Webex meeting 17 July 2009.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070400/56649f125503460f94c259b7/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
RHIC dipolesRHIC dipoles
![Page 6: CLIC-ILC meeting on costs Cost learning curves: from theory to practice Ph. Lebrun Webex meeting 17 July 2009.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070400/56649f125503460f94c259b7/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Effect of staff Effect of staff buildup/turnoverbuildup/turnover
LHC dipole coils LHC dipole coils (Jeumont)(Jeumont)
![Page 7: CLIC-ILC meeting on costs Cost learning curves: from theory to practice Ph. Lebrun Webex meeting 17 July 2009.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070400/56649f125503460f94c259b7/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Saturation plateauSaturation plateauLHC dipole coils LHC dipole coils (BNN)(BNN)
LHC dipole collared coil productionBNN
0
1
2
3
4
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101 106 111
collared coil no.
Lear
ning
fact
or
Expected Learning CurveActualTarget
Not including manufacturing hours for breakdowns, repairs and interruptionsIncluding estimation for started but not yet completed dipole-magnets
![Page 8: CLIC-ILC meeting on costs Cost learning curves: from theory to practice Ph. Lebrun Webex meeting 17 July 2009.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070400/56649f125503460f94c259b7/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
LHC components & industrial LHC components & industrial productsproducts
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
1 10 100 1000
Number of variants
Max
. nu
mbe
r of
uni
ts p
er v
aria
nt Superconductors
Magnet components
Magnets
Power converters
Cryolines
Vacuum
![Page 9: CLIC-ILC meeting on costs Cost learning curves: from theory to practice Ph. Lebrun Webex meeting 17 July 2009.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070400/56649f125503460f94c259b7/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
LHC series componentsLHC series components
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
1 10 100 1000
Number of variants
Max
imum
num
ber
of u
nits
per
var
iant Superconductors
Magnet components
Magnets
Power converters
Cryolines
Vacuum
Flexible cells, manual work
Flexible workshops
Automatic chains
![Page 15: CLIC-ILC meeting on costs Cost learning curves: from theory to practice Ph. Lebrun Webex meeting 17 July 2009.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070400/56649f125503460f94c259b7/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Some questionsSome questions
• Validity of single-exponent model for limited-series production– Dual-exponent?– Plateau?– Change of regime: absolute number or fraction of total number?
• Values of learning factor for accelerator components– Experience of previous projects?– Comparison with and scaling from other technological products?– ILC approach?– Assumption on number of parallel production lines?