CLEAN TRANSFORMATION AS A

COMPLEX ENDEAVOUR

– THE CASE OF CHILE

Joni Karjalainen, Noora Vähäkari & Sirkka Heinonen

University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre

Futures of A Complex World

25th Anniversary Conference

Turku, Finland

June 13, 2017

www.neocarbonenergy.fi/impacts/

OUTLINE OF THE

PRESENTATION

1) Energy transformations

– Research question, research approach & methodology

2) Background: Global renewable energy trends

– Chile as a pioneer in Latin America

3) Theoretical approach

– Multi-level perspectives (MLP) & complexity

– What is the role of cultural, social and institutional dynamics?

4) Preliminary findings, analysis and discussion

– Scenario-testing in a Futures Clinique www.neocarbonenergy.fi

1. WHAT ENERGY TRANSFORMATION?

• Climate change: ’push’ for infrastructure and societal change

From business-as-usual to transformation

• Energy literature focused on techno-economic aspects of

energy systems, less on socio-cultural aspects. But technological

and social change are intertwined.

• Many types of energy transformations: ’low-carbon’ carbon

capture & storage, nuclear, renewable energy system

In the neo-carbon system, everything is produced emissions-free with solar, wind, and other renewables, and synthetic materials from renewables even replace oil.

ENERGY IN A NEOCARBONIZED WORLD

In the 21st century, decentralized energy system drives a peer-to-peer society.

In the neo-carbon world, everything is produced emissions-free with solar, wind, and other renewables. Synthetic processes replace fossil fuel based ones.

In the 20th century, infrastructure was centralized.

In the neo-carbon system, everything is produced emissions-free with solar, wind, and other renewables, and synthetic materials from renewables even replace oil.

HOW WILL THE FUTURE OF CHILE LOOK LIKE IN A NEOCARBONIZED SOCIETY?

• What dynamics are driving,

and can drive, such transformation?

THE CASE STUDY: CHILE

• Investments in education (HDI 38th in 2015)• Political history 1973-1990• ’Hierarchical’ society

• Increasing significance of service sector• Mining industry: copper provides 20% of GDP and

60% of exports (2013) • Significant economic growth for decades, • Stable business and investment environment• Few dominant companies

• Further social reforms encouraged• Growth needs to become more ’inclusive’,

especially for women

Data: OECD; WB; various sources

Some of the highest solar irradiation

on Earth in the Atacama desert

And a long windy coast line

GOVERNMENT RE

OBJECTIVE: 70% BY

2050, EVEN 100%

(National Energy

Commission, May 2017)

From energy net importer to

exporter?

2. THEORETICAL

FRAMEWORK

THE UPTAKE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY

TECHNOLOGIES AND INNOVATIONS

• Multi-level perspective on socio-technical transitions –

novel technologies emerge from ‘strategic niches’ (Geels

& Schot 2011, Schot & Geels 2008)

• Decentralized energy prosumerism as a future socio-

technical imaginary: “Third Industrial Revolution” (Rifkin

2011)

‘Politics’ of energy transformation as state-led, market-led, citizen-led, technology-led (Scoones et al 2015):

technological development pushes down market prices. (Right) governance choices enable sustainable

innovations and energy transition processes. Small consumers as engines to transition (Rubio & Folchi 2012)

MULTI-LEVEL PERSPECTIVES

AND STRATEGIC NICHE MANAGEMENT

WHERE ARE

VALUES?

WHERE IS

CULTURE

IN THE

TRANSITIONS

THEORY?

(Geels 2002, 2004; Geels and Schot 2007)

Landscape pressures begin a

questioning of the existing

sociotechnical configuration

Changes in value systems

(socio-cultural) can ‘push’

regime change

SOCIETAL DEVELOPMENT AS

A COMPLEX ENDEAVOUR

Our research interest lies in the

sociocultural aspects of energy

sector transition in Chile

• Societies are complex

systems (Andersson et al

2014)

• Development is

‘transformational’ social

change, which involves polity,

economy, social relations,

public administration, and

social protection (Viterna &

Robertson 2015)

• What other theories to

address value-based, socio-

cultural change?

3. RESEARCH

METHODOLOGY

• Foresight part of the Neo-Carbon Energy

project – four transformative scenarios 2050

• Background analysis (review of policy and

media documents)

• Scenarios tested in a Futures Clinique in

Santiago, Chile in October 2016

• Expert interviews

• Further document analysis

ENABLERS FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR

TRANSITION IN CHILE?

1. Electricity demand growth: in the copper sector and

residential use

2. Abundant resources in solar (but also wind, hydro, and

geothermal)

3. Limited fossil reserves and high import costs

4. Market economy (i.e. stable business environment)

…what about the socio-cultural factors?

Adapted from Davis (2017)

© Sirkka Heinonen

1. RADICAL STARTUPS

2. VALUE-DRIVEN

TECHEMOTHS

3. GREEN DIY

ENGINEERS

4. NEW

CONSCIOUSNESS

FOUR TRANSFORMATIONAL SCENARIOS 2050

SCENARIO TESTING:

FUTURES CLINIQUE Research questions

• How is Chile in 2050 (energy-wise;

citizens, customers, values, culture,

organisations, etc.)?

• What are actors like? What new actors

emerge?

• What should happen for such a system

to be adopted?

Futures Wheel

- Exploring ideas on citizens; organisations;

and energy

- Who are the key actors in the future?

PESTEC Table

- Systematically probing alternative futures

- Exploring unexpected factors (”Black Swans”)

Organized in Santiago de Chile 24 Oct 2016

4. PRELIMINARY

FINDINGS

• Peer-to-peer society

necessitates collective

trust to fellow citizens,

decision makers, social

structures, companies

• Fully decentralised

system not taken for

granted – certain

level of authority is

needed

• Diversification of

economy – solar

energy as ’the new

copper’?

• What is the role of the

weight of the political

history of Chile?

PARTICIPANTS’

VIEWS

CHILEAN SOCIETY BASED ON 100%

RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES IS

POSSIBLE BY 2050 IF…

• Economy is diversified and smaller actors have access to

markets, energy production is democratized

• Necessary infrastructure (grids) is developed

• Supportive policies remain to be in place

• Collective trust and communality are developed to support a

decentralised energy system (and the peer-to-peer principles)

Genuinely prosumeristic view as a long-term goal?

Socio-cultural factors can reinforce technology-driven

transition – or hinder it

THANK YOU!

Joni Karjalainen joni.karjalainen@utu.fi

Noora Vähäkari noora.vahakari@utu.fi

University of Turku

Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC)

utu.fi/en/units/ffrc/research/projects/energy/Pages/neo-fore.aspx

www.neocarbonenergy.fi

Davis Lucas (2017) Four Reasons Why Chile Is the Biggest Solar Market in Latin America. Energy Institute at HAAS, University of California Berkeley https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2017/03/27/four-reasons-why-chile-is-the-biggest-solar-market-in-latin-america/Publised: 27th March 2017

Jocelyn Viterna & Cassandra Robertson (2015) New Directions for the Sociology of Development. Annual Review of Sociology 2015, 41: 243-269.

Ian Scoones, Melissa Leach and Peter Newell (eds.) (2015) The Politics of Green Transformations, Routledge

Claes Andersson, Anton Törnberg, Petter Törnberg (2014) Societal systems – Complex or worse? Futureshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2014.07.003

M.d. Mar Rubio & Mauricio Folchi (2012) Will small energy consumers be faster in transition? Evidence from early shift from coal to oil in Latin America. Energy Policy 50 (2012) 50-61.

Owen Barder (2012a) What is Development? Center for Global Development Blog, 16 Aug 2012https://www.cgdev.org/blog/what-development

Owen Barder (2012b) The Implications of Complexity for Development. The Kapuściński Lecture. https://www.cgdev.org/media/implications-complexity-development-owen-barder

Johan Schot & Frank W. Geels (2008) Strategic niche management andsustainable innovation journeys: theory, findings, research agenda, and policy, TechnologyAnalysis & Strategic Management, 20:5, 537-554, DOI: 10.1080/09537320802292651

Marjolein C.J. Caniëls & Henny A. Romijn (2008) Strategic niche management:towards a policy tool for sustainable development, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management,20:2, 245-266, DOI: 10.1080/09537320701711264

Read more: utu.fi/en/units/ffrc/research/projects/energy/Pages/neo-fore.aspx

www.neocarbonenergy.fi

SUGGESTED READINGS

Breyer, Christian & Heinonen, Sirkka & Ruotsalainen, Juho (2017). New Consciousness: A societal

and energetic vision for rebalancing humankind within the limits of planet Earth. Technological

Forecasting & Social Change, 114, 7–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.029

Juho Ruotsalainen, Sirkka Heinonen, Joni Karjalainen and Marjukka Parkkinen (2016), Peer-to-

peer work in the digital meaning society 2050, European Journal for Futures Research 4:10, Dec

2016, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-016-0092-2 Open access link:

http://paperity.org/p/78129453/peer-to-peer-work-in-the-digital-meaning-society-2050

Heinonen, Sirkka – Karjalainen, Joni – Helle, Aino & Nisula, Sakari (2017) Argentinian Energy

Landscapes. Case Study of the Neo-Carbon Energy Project. FFRC eBOOK 12/2016. Finland

Futures Research Centre, University of Turku. 84 p. ISBN 978-952-249-469-6, ISSN 1797-1322

http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/FFRC-eBook_12-2016.pdf

Lang, Merja – Karjalainen, Joni & Heinonen, Sirkka (2016) Glocal Insights to Neo-Carbon

Energy and Its Forerunners. NEO-CARBON ENERGY WP1 Working Paper 4/2016. Finland

Futures Research Centre, ISBN 978-952-249-429-0, 112 p.

www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/tutkimus/hankkeet/Documents/NeoCarbon-WP1-4-2016.pdf

Heinonen, Sirkka, Karjalainen, Joni & Ruotsalainen, Juho (2016)

Radical Transformation in a Distributed Society - Neo-Carbon Energy Scenarios 2050. Neo-

Carbon Energy WP1 Working Paper 1/2016. University of Turku: Finland Futures Research

Centre http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/tutkimus/hankkeet/Documents/NeoCarbon-WP1-1-

2016.pdf

Heinonen, Sirkka, Karjalainen, Joni and Ruotsalainen, Juho (2015). Towards the Third Industrial

Revolution. Neo-Carbon Energy Futures Clinique I. eBook 6/2015. Finland Futures Research

Centre, 74 p. http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/FFRC-eBook-6-

2015.pdf

REFERENCES

Read more: utu.fi/en/units/ffrc/research/projects/energy/Pages/neo-fore.aspx

www.neocarbonenergy.fi

NEO-CARBON Energy project is one of the Tekes strategic research openings

and the project is carried out in cooperation with Technical Research Centre of

Finland VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology LUT and

University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC.

www.neocarbonenergy.fi/impacts