Clean, Affordable Decentralized Energy

Options -- Burma

Chris GreacenPalang Thai

MEE-Net Seminar on Energy in Burma24 Jan 2011 Chiang Mai

Outline• Intro to energy

– Energy history– World energy situation– Renewable energy

• Burma– Default scenarios– For revenue: Mega dams, gas exports– For electrification: dam & diesel generation, likely power imports

from Thailand

• Addressing the Thai side– Removing bias in load forecasting– Consider clean, decentralized options on level playing field

• Addressing the Burma side– Some clean community energy options

Outline• Intro to world energy

– Energy history– World energy situation

• Burma energy situation– Energy exports to Thailand– Energy for domestic use

• Renewable energy– For village-scale applications– For sale to main grid

• Addressing the Burma side– Some clean community energy options

History of Human Energy UseEnergy source Years in use Comment

Solar energy + biomass ~ 2,000,000 Humans have relied on energy from sun & plants since species began

Animal power ~ 7,500 Animals used for riding, hauling, and cultivation

Water and wind power ~ 2,500 Travel by sail, wind and water used for pumping, mechanical tasks

Steam engine / coal ~ 250 Industrial Revolution powered by steam engines, abundant coal

Electric motors / generators / grid

~ 125 Edison Pearl St Station, 1882; Tesla AC motor/generator 1890s

Internal combustion engine / oil

~ 125 Pennsylvania oil 1859; Benz/Otto ICE vehicle 1885; Ford Model T 1908

Nuclear power ~ 50 Product of nuclear weapons development in US, USSR

Modern renewables / low-carbon sources

~ 25 California, Denmark, Germany, China

Edison Pearl Street Station - first electric distribution system, 1882

China, water-powered trip hammer, Han Dynasty CA 200 BC Watt steam engine ca. 1775 Benz automobile ca. 1886

Oil well, Pennsylvania, 1861

World Energy 1850-2000

050

100150200250300350400450500

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Year

EJ/

yea

r

Gas

Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Hydro +

Biomass

The rise of global dependence on fossil fuels

World primary energy supply, 1850-2000

Hydro+ means hydropower plus other renewables besides biomass

Coal drove growth 1850-1950; oil & gas drove it (2x faster) 1950-2000

In the USA…

Current world energy system - the positive

• Cheap• Convenient • Mature technologies

• oil dependence–price volatility, developing country debt,

resource conflict• carbon emissions

–climate change• growth in consumption• Unequal distribution

– of consumption and impacts

Current world energy system - the negative

Current Energy System in a Nutshell

• Those “upwind, upstream, and uptime” enjoy convenient services at artificially low prices.

• Those “downwind, downstream, and downtime” face the consequences

Where we’re at

• progress is slow toward alternatives – fossil fuels 90% in 1980, 86% in 2005

• change is difficult to achieve– consumption habits, prices don’t reflect

externalities, vested interests• time is short for transforming the system

– already happening: climate change, oil wars, energy poverty, debt crises

Masters & Randolph, 2008

No Technological “Silver Bullet”

• oil and gas: not enough resources• coal: not enough atmosphere• biomass: not enough land• hydropower & wind: not enough sites• nuclear fission: too unforgiving• nuclear fusion: too difficult• Solar : too expensive• hydrogen: not a “source”: needs energy

to produce it • end-use efficiency: needs end-users who are

paying attention

From John P. Holdren, “The Energy Innovation Imperative,” 2006

Elements of a solution

• Sustainable energy technologies• Change markets• Change consumption behavior• Change policies• Change institutions

Sustainable energy technologies

• Renewable Energy: making use of flows of energy that are naturally replaced (wind, sun, biomass)

Problems for renewables• Cost• Technical maturity• Technical fit• Geographic mismatch • Limits to renewability

World Wind Energy Growth

Source: World Wind Energy Association

World Biofuel Growth

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Qu

ad

rillio

n B

tu

Renewable

Hydroelectric

Nuclear

Natural Gas

NGPL

Petroleum

Coal

WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1970-2004

SOURCE: AER 2006

Energy situation in Burma (?)

• Energy shortages– blackouts, fuel rationing

• High energy costs• High human suffering from impacts of

large energy projects– Large hydro– Gas

• Unequal distribution of energy, of impacts

Big hydro – for export to Thailand &

domestic use

• Used to make:– 6% of Thailand’s electricity,– 60% of Burma’s electricity (most dams

are in ethnic minority areas)• Consensus: no more big dams will be

built in Thailand.– Limited sites left in Thailand– Strong environmental opposition…– “Build in Burma instead!!!”

• Environmental issues– Inundation– Fish killed– Global warming– Changes in temperature / sediment

loading / flow regime• Can be cheap

– If reasonably close to load centers

Tasang7,000 MW

Upper Salween4,000 MW

Lower Salween500 MW

Hut Gyi 1,200 MW

Yawatit600 MW

Tanaosri720 MW

Planned megadams to export electricity to Thailand

Natural gas

• Used to make 71% of Thailand’s electricity (among highest in world)– 1/3 of gas used in Thailand comes

from Burma– 20% of our (Thai) electricity bills pay

for Burmese gas

• Single largest source of revenue to Burmese military government– Accounts for fully half of Burma’s

exports in 2006– US$2.16 billion to junta from

Thailand.– Total, Chevron, PTTEP, Petronas,

Nippon Oil, etc.

Source: Burma: Foreign Investment Finances Regime. Human Rights Watch. 2007. www.hrw.org/english/docs/2007/10/01/burma16995.htm

Rural electrification - Burma

• In 2008, 42.8 Million of Burma’s 58.82 million population lived without electricity.

• Goal: electrification rates to 60% by 2020.

Diesel

Sell electricity to Thailand cheap,buy back expensive

2 baht/kWh8 baht/kWh

1 baht/kWh

Can we imagine something different?

Saving electricity is cheaper than generating it

Source: The World Bank (1993)

2.12.6

4.04.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.5

8.2

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

DSM Hydro fromLaos

Gascombined

cycle

Lignite withFGD

Low-sulphurcoal w/o

FGD

Low-sulphur fuel

oil w/oFGD

LNG Low-sulphur

coal withFGD

Nuclear

Type of Power Plant

Co

st

of

En

erg

y (

US

ce

nts

/kW

H)

Demand Side Management (saving electricity)

Actual 10-year DSM average

cost!!!

1.5

The Arun-3 story

• Planned 201 MW hydro in Nepal• Sell electricity to India, rural electrification• Nepalese NGOs and small business:

“Micro-hydropower cheaper, better for local economy”

• World Bank pulled out of project, project cancelled

• 10 years later…the Nepali power system has seen the addition of:– over a 1/3 more capacity than the Arun-3– at ½ the cost– In ½ the time it would have taken to complete Arun-3

Renewable energy fuels and uses

End use

Electricity Mech power / pumping

Water heating

Cooking Transportation

Technology Off-grid On-grid

Biomass Gasifier ● ● ●

Biogas ● ● ● ●

Steam turbine

●

Direct combustion

● ●

Biodiesel or ethanol

● ● ●

Micro-hydro

● ● ●

Solar ● ● ● ● ●

Wind ● ● ●

1. Village and household scale

2. National scale (connecting to national grid)

Biodiesel

Efficient Charcoal

Micro-hydroelectricity

Source: Inversin, A. R. (1986). Micro-Hydropower Sourcebook.

Hydraulic ram pump

www.agr.gc.ca

Hydraulic ram pump

Community micro-hydro

• Mae Kam Pong village, Chiang Mai

• 1x40 kW; 2x20 kW• Community cooperative• Sells electricity to the

national grid

Solar cooking

replace

LED lighting and 0.5-5W solar panels, coupled with microfinance energy loans, can end kerosene lighting

Barefoot Power is a social enterprise delivering such solutions

Solar home systems

• 25,000 baht per household system

• 120 watts• Electricity

for 2 lights + TV

DEEP CY CLEEBB 125

3K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED

3KDEEP CY CLE

EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED

3KDEEP CY CLE

EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED

3KDEEP CY CLE

EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED

3KDEEP CY CLE

EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED

3K

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Thai solar home systems

203,000 solar home systemsSustainability challenge

Ruggedized solar electric systems built by Karen medics in 3-5 day hands-on trainings

• 7 trainings (2003-2007)• >90 medics trained• 35 clinics

Solar for computer training centers in seven Karen refugee camps

• 1 kW PV hybrid with diesel generator• Each powers 12 computers

Bangkok Solar 1 MW PV

• Project size: 1 MW• Uses self-manufactured a-Si

Solar water heating

Biogas for cookingKatchin State, Burma

http://www.palangthai.org/en/bsep

Biogas from Pig Farms

Reduces air and water pollution

Produces fertilizer

Produces electricity

8 x 70 kW generator

Ratchaburi

Biogas from Pig Farms

• Uses waste water from cassava to make methane

• Produces gas for all factory heat (30 MW thermal) + 3 MW of electricity

• 3 x 1 MW gas generators

Korat Waste to Energy – biogas… an early Thai VSPP project

Biomass Gasification

Rice mill in Nakorn Sawan400 kW

Gasifierelectricity from wood

Rice husk-fired power plant• 9.8 MW• Roi Et, Thailand

Technical regulations:• Allowable voltage,

frequency, THD variations

• Protective relays– 1-line diagrams for all

cases:• Induction• Synchronous• Inverters• Single/multiple• Connecting at different

voltage levels (LV or MV)

• Communication channels

Commercial regulations:

• Definitions of renewable energy, and efficient cogeneration

• Cost allocation• Principle of

standardized tariff determination

• Invoicing and payment arrangements

• Arbitration

$

+ Standardized Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)

Evolution of Thai VSPP regulations• 2002

– VSPP regulations drafted, approved by Cabinet– Up to 1 MW export, renewables only– Tariffs set at avoided cost (bulk supply tariff + FT)

• 2006– Up to 10 MW export, renewables + cogeneration– Feed-in tariff “adder” – If > 1 MW then utility only pays for 98% of energy

• 2009– Tariff adder increase, more for projects that offset diesel

http://www.eppo.go.th/power/vspp-eng/ for English version of regulations, and model PPA

Thai VSPP feed-in tariff adders

Assumes exchange rate 1 Thai baht = 0.029762 U.S. dollars

Fuel Adder Additional for diesel offsetting areas

Additional for 3 southern provinces

Years effective

Biomass Capacity <= 1 MW $ 0.015 $ 0.030 $ 0.030 7 Capacity > 1 MW $ 0.009 $ 0.030 $ 0.030 7

Biogas <= 1 MW $ 0.015 $ 0.030 $ 0.030 7 > 1 MW $ 0.009 $ 0.030 $ 0.030 7

Waste (community waste, non-hazardous industrial and not organic matter)

Fermentation $ 0.074 $ 0.030 $ 0.030 7 Thermal process $ 0.104 $ 0.030 $ 0.030 7

Wind <= 50 kW $ 0.134 $ 0.045 $ 0.045 10 > 50 kW $ 0.104 $ 0.045 $ 0.045 10

Micro-hydro 50 kW - <200 kW $ 0.024 $ 0.030 $ 0.030 7 <50 kW $ 0.045 $ 0.030 $ 0.030 7

Solar $ 0.238 $ 0.045 $ 0.045 10

Tariff = adder(s) + bulk supply tariff + FT chargeBiomass tariff = $0.009 + $0.049 + $0.027 = $0.085/kWh

July 2010

Thailand VSPP Status

847 MW online

PPAs signed for additional 4283 MW

Decentralized generation

• Decentralized generation: generation of electricity near where it is used

Energy efficient end-use

Solar

Wind power

BiomassCustomers

Power plant

Old way New way

Power plant

Biomass

Energy waste in a typical pumping system

Sankey Energy Flow Diagram

CogenerationCombined Heat and Power (CHP)

Thank you

For more information, please contact chris@palangthai.org

This presentation available at:

www.palangthai.org/docs