Classes will begin shortly
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Transcript of Classes will begin shortly
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During the course-Network Types (Small World, Scale Free, Random)-Network Models (Erdos-Renyi, Scale-Free, Hierarchical Networks, Duplication Divergence)-Network Properties (Degree, Degree Distribution, Clustering, Degree Correlations, Rich Club Phenomena, Average Path Length, Diameter, Community Structure etc…)-Dynamical Properties (Failure and attack tolerance, epidemic thresholds, etc..)-Social Systems Team assembly and the invisible college, the dynamics of social ties and groups-Biological Systems Molecular Networks (PPI, Metabolic), Disease Networks.
We discovered that it was a bit too much for only seven sessions
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Networks, Complexity and Economic Development
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How can we describe the economic development of nations?
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GDP per capita
Labor, Land, Capital, Technological Sophistication
Production Function
Robinson, J. (1953) The production function and the theory of capital, Review of Economic Studies, vol XXI, 1953, pp. 81-106
Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function
RM Solow - The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1957
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Designer Programmer Hardware Knowledge
Webpage
Mechanic
FashionableElectronic
Southern CaliforniaRich people toys
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CA Hidalgo, B Klinger, A-L Barabasi, R Hausmann.Science (2007)
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Building the ForestBuilding the Forest
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d()=F(C,N,N,N)
corr()=(CN-NN)/sqrt((N-N) (N-N) NN)M.I.()=H()+H()-H()R.R.()= CN/NN
Proximity()= min(C/N, C/N)
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Product
Product
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Maximum Spanning Tree (MST)
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Threshold = 0.5
Number of Links = 2850
Threshold = 0.55
Number of Links = 1525
Threshold = 0.6
Number of Links = 1026
Threshold = 0.7
Number of Links = 829
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Threshold = 0.55
Number of Links = 1525
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CA Hidalgo, B Klinger, A-L Barabasi, R Hausmann.Science (2007)
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Patterns of Comparative Advantage
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How do monkeys jump?
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Malaysia 1975
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Malaysia 1980
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Malaysia 1985
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Malaysia 1990
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Malaysia 1995
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Malaysia 2000
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China
1975 1985 2000
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1985
High density ofMonkeys around this tree
Low density ofMonkeys around this tree
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CA Hidalgo, B Klinger, A-L Barabasi, R Hausmann.Science (2007)
Countries are more likely to jump towards products that are close by
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Malaysia 1990Chile 1990
High Densityin Malaysia
Low DensityChile
High Densityin Chile
Low Densityin Malaysia
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Malaysia 2000Chile 2000
Exported byMalaysia
Not ExportedBy Chile
Exported byChile
Not exportedby Malaysia
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H=Average Density in Countries that transitioned into the Product / Average Density in Countries that did not transition into the product
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Society Products
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A similar story….
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What is matter made of?
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Dimitri Mendeleev
Johann Döbereiner
John Newlands
Alexandrede Chancourtois
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CA Hidalgo, B Klinger, A-L Barabasi, R Hausmann.Science (2007)
How good is your neighborhood?
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First economic quantification
Country A
Country B
Country B
Sa
E=- Salog(Sa)
H= S2a
D= Sa F(Sa)
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1006 product categories
132
coun
trie
sQuantifying Economic Complexity
Ma= 1 if country a exports product
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Method of Reflections
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Product 1
Country C1
Country C2
Country C3
Product 2
Product 3
Product
k=3
k=4
k=1
Method of Reflections
Degree (Countries) Degree (Products)
Diversification Ubiquity
a
aM
aa Mk
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Method of Reflections
Product 1
Country C1
Country C2
Country C3
Product 2
Product 3
Product
Country C1
Country C2
Country C3
k1,1=7/3
k2,1=2
k3,1=3
k1= Standardness: Average ubiquity of products exported by a country
aa
a Mk
k1
1,
Mirror
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k=3
k=4
k=1
Product 1
Product 2
Product 3
Product
Country C1
Country C2
Country C3
Product 1
Product 2
Product 3
Product
Method of Reflections
1= Complexity: Average diversification of a products’ exporters
aa
a kM
1
1,
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a
aM
aa Mk
Country Variables Product Variables
k0
k1
k2
k3
k4
Method of Reflections
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Diversification k
Standardness k1
Poorly Diversified& Producing Common
Products
Highly Diversified& Producing Common
Products
Highly Diversified& Producing
Exclusive Products
Poorly Diversified& Producing Rare
Products
Method of Reflections: k-k1 diagram
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Method of Reflections: k-k1 diagram
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Ubiquity
Produced in Few,Highly Diversified,
Countries
Produced in ManyHighly Diversified
Countries
Produced in ManyNon Diversified
Countries
Produced in FewNon-Diversified
Countries
Method of Reflections: diagram
Complexity
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Method of Reflections: diagram
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Method of Reflections: Null Models
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Method of Reflections: k-k1 diagram and null models
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Method of Reflections: k-k2, k1-k2 diagrams and null models
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Method of Reflections: diagram and null models
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Method of Reflections: diagrams and null models
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Method of Reflections: k, k1 and GDP per capita (ppp)
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Method of Reflections: and PRODY
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(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)PredictedVariable
Growth(85,95)
Growth(85,95)
Growth(85,95)
Growth(85,95)
Growth(85,95)
Growth(85,95)
Growth(85,95)
Growth(85,95)
Growth(85,95)
Growth(85,95)
Growth(85,95)
PredictorsGDP per capita
ppp(1985)
-0.00176 0.000993 -0.00206 -0.00154 -0.00249 -0.00223 -0.00470 -0.00233 -0.00244 -0.00238 -0.00242
(-0.794) (0.533) (-0.882) (-0.497) (-0.735) (-0.688) (-1.478) (-0.758) (-0.849) (-0.804) (-0.831)Entropy(1985)
0.00660*** 0.00828** 0.00200 0.00322
(3.650) (2.600) (0.931) (0.896)Herfindahl
(1985)-0.0273*** 0.0116 -0.00414 0.00723
(-2.765) (0.760) (-0.406) (0.454)k
(1985)6.62e-05**
(2.080)k1
(1985)
-0.000612
(-0.749)k4
(1985)
0.00169***
(2.866)k5
(1985)
0.0321*
(1.737)k8
(1985)
0.0338***
(3.075)k9
(1985)
0.890***
(2.713)k18
(1985)
0.401*** 38.88*** 35.05** 37.26*** 35.57***
(3.453) (2.952) (2.618) (2.849) (2.643)k19
(1985)
1127*** 1017** 1080*** 1033***
(2.928) (2.603) (2.829) (2.632)Constant 0.0114 0.0137 0.00650 0.0338 -0.735* -19.29*** -69.21*** -23801*** -21475** -22808*** -21801***
(0.751) (0.776) (0.437) (0.922) (-1.883) (-2.807) (-3.454) (-2.940) (-2.610) (-2.834) (-2.633)N 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97
Adjusted R2 0.195 0.115 0.192 0.118 0.206 0.247 0.202 0.274 0.274 0.268 0.268
Method of Reflections: 20 year Growth
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Method of Reflections: 20 year Growth
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(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)
PredictedVariable
Growth(85-95--05)
Growth(85-95--05)
Growth(85-95-05)
Growth(85-95-05)
Growth(85-95-05)
Growth(85-95-05)
Growth(85-95-05)
Growth(85-95-05)
Growth(85-95-05)
Growth(85-95-05)
Growth(85-95-05)
PredictorsGDP per capita
ppp(85,95)
-0.00235 0.000334 -0.00246 0.00112 -0.00395** -0.00311* 0.00310** -0.00119 -0.00346* -0.00229 -0.00343*
(-1.322) (0.209) (-1.349) (0.595) (-2.062) (-1.695) (2.188) (-0.707) (-1.899) (-1.327) (-1.850)Entropy(85,95)
0.00699*** 0.00759*** 0.00458*** 0.00434
(4.962) (2.985) (3.002) (1.648)Herfindahl
(85,95)-0.0325*** 0.00422 -0.0210** -0.00162
(-3.890) (0.285) (-2.494) (-0.112)k
(85,95)9.75e-05***
(3.967)k1
(85,95)0.000916**
(2.543).k4
(85,95)0.00102***
(5.577)k5
(85,95)0.00329***
(5.971)k8
(85,95)0.00577***
(5.056)k9
(85,95)0.0152***
(5.594)k18
(85,95)-0.000660*** 0.455*** 0.310*** 0.375*** 0.311***
(-3.577) (4.306) (2.705) (3.428) (2.695)k19
(85,95)1.158*** 0.789*** 0.954*** 0.792***
(4.312) (2.709) (3.433) (2.699)Constant 0.0171 0.0226 0.0153 -0.0186 -0.168*** -1.178*** 0.102*** -96.21*** -65.48*** -79.20*** -65.78***
(1.356) (1.602) (1.087) (-0.971) (-6.137) (-5.215) (3.107) (-4.308) (-2.705) (-3.428) (-2.695)Observations 221 221 221 221 221 221 221 221 221 221 221Adjusted R2 0.113 0.077 0.109 0.085 0.170 0.160 0.068 0.137 0.168 0.158 0.164
Method of Reflections: 10 year Growth
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(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)
Predicted Variable
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)Predictors
GDP per capita ppp
(85,90,95,00)-0.00269* 0.000292 -0.00286* 0.000361 -0.00393** 0.00224* 0.00326** 0.00310** -0.00257* 0.000281 -0.00275*
(-1.732) (0.211) (-1.785) (0.220) (-2.431) (1.767) (2.553) (2.479) (-1.686) (0.207) (-1.749)Entropy
(85,90,95,00) 0.00798*** 0.00885*** 0.00759*** 0.00851***
(6.280) (3.760) (6.060) (3.680)Herfindahl
(85,90,95,00) -0.0373*** 0.00602 -0.0351*** 0.00636
(-4.970) (0.440) (-4.765) (0.474)k
(85,90,95,00) 0.000121***
(5.351)k1
(85,90,95,00) 0.000953***
(2.853)k4
(85,90,95,00) 0.00113***
(7.074)k5
(85,90,95,00) 0.00260***
(5.694)k8
(85,90,95,00)0.00102***
(3.474)k9
(85,90,95,00)0.00312***
(5.504)k18
(85,90,95,00) -0.000265 0.000632** 0.000673** 0.000647** 0.000676**
(-1.147) (2.131) (2.359) (2.234) (2.365)k19
(85,90,95,00) 0.00280*** 0.00259*** 0.00265*** 0.00260***
(4.671) (4.494) (4.523) (4.493)Constant 0.0166 0.0236* 0.0142 -0.0160 -0.173*** -0.224*** 0.0349 -0.163*** -0.142** -0.132** -0.145***
(1.497) (1.910) (1.144) (-0.933) (-7.646) (-4.198) (0.889) (-2.846) (-2.576) (-2.355) (-2.611)
Observations 451 451 451 451 451 451 451 451 451 451 451
Adjusted R2 0.090 0.062 0.089 0.071 0.136 0.071 0.013 0.057 0.127 0.101 0.125
Method of Reflections: 5 year Growth
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Method of Reflections: 5 year growth, fixed country effects(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)
Predicted Variables
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)
Growth(85-90-95-00-
05)Predictors
GDP per capita ppp
(85,90,95,00)
-0.0585*** -0.0581*** -0.0595*** -0.0773*** -0.0863*** -0.0891*** -0.0651*** -0.0899*** -0.0868*** -0.0884*** -0.0867***
(-7.911) (-7.721) (-8.072) (-10.11) (-11.28) (-11.78) (-8.337) (-11.89) (-11.39) (-11.58) (-11.40)Entropy
(85,90,95,00)0.0134*** 0.0247*** 0.00706** 0.0142**
(4.478) (4.037) (2.453) (2.435)Herfindahl
(85,90,95,00)-0.0390*** 0.0585** -0.0181 0.0360
(-2.842) (2.117) (-1.435) (1.410)k
(85,90,95,00)0.000223***
(3.710)k1
(85,90,95,00)0.00238***
(6.549)k4
(85,90,95,00)0.000537***
(2.922)k5
(85,90,95,00)0.00366***
(9.287)k8
(85,90,95,00)0.000611***
(2.801)k9
(85,90,95,00)0.00410***
(8.998)k18
(85,90,95,00)-0.000535*** 0.000601*** 0.000653*** 0.000618*** 0.000673***
(-2.808) (2.801) (3.051) (2.879) (3.141)k19
(85,90,95,00)0.00419*** 0.00395*** 0.00410*** 0.00389***
(8.799) (8.164) (8.521) (8.031)Constant 0.467*** 0.514*** 0.429*** 0.594*** 0.588*** 0.589*** 0.651*** 0.596*** 0.543*** 0.585*** 0.511***
(7.427) (8.147) (6.592) (9.546) (8.165) (8.070) (8.203) (8.310) (7.315) (8.133) (6.583)Observations 451 451 451 451 451 451 451 451 451 451 451
Within R2 0.2071 0.1784 0.2179 0.2991 0.3379 0.3373 0.1779 0.3372 0.3494 0.3415 0.3535
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Method of Reflections: Predicts network properties of future products
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Method of Reflections: Predicts network properties of future products
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TheTheLegoLego
TheoryTheoryofof
DevelopmentDevelopment
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Lego World
Real World
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Countries
How many different pieces you have?
How rare are your pieces?
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Many different pieces
If you have:
We might expect you to build manyproducts, including those requiringmany different pieces and rare pieces.
Few different pieces
We expect you to build few products, thatare made by many others, as it is likely to have those few pieces
High Diversification (k0), Low Standardness (k1)
Low Diversfication (k0), High Standardness (k1)
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Many different piecesIf a product requires:
We might expect you to find that productIn few countries that have many pieces andtherefore build many products
Few different pieces
We expect to find that products in manyCountries, including those with few pieces
Low ubiquity (k0), High complexity (k1)
High ubiquity (k0), Low complexity (k1)
Few rare pieces
We expect to find that products in few countries
Low Ubiquity (k0)
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Concluding RemarksINTRODUCTION:
1.- The product space is heterogeneous and can be approximated by studying export data using network methods.2.- The heterogeneity of the product space matters for development.(The location of a country in the product space determines their ability to diversify)
MAIN BODY
1.- We can quantify the productive structure of countries and the sophistication of products by studying exports as a bipartite network.2.- This network characterization of productive structure is associated with income and growth, suggesting that it is able to capture some fundamental properties of production.
FINALE
1.- We can explain some of this observations using the Lego Theory of Development