Class and risk management

Shipping and the LawNaples, 3 October 2013

Philippe BOISSON

2Class & Risk Management _ Shipping and the Law, Naples, 3 October 2013

Class and risk management

1. The risk management philosophy

2. Implementation of risk management methods

3. New approach in the maritime safety regulatory regime

4. Classification and risk management approach

5. Goal Based Standards and Common Structural Rules

6. Classification rules for very large vessel

7. Classification of ships/units in Arctic conditions

8. Risk based design

9. Consequences for the shipping community

40 > Sorting elements ----

X

Y

Z

X

Y

Z0.00E+00

1.58E-01

3.16E-01

4.74E-01

6.32E-01

7.90E-01

9.48E-01

1.11E+00

1.26E+00

STRESS RATIO COMPONENTS

ALL LOAD CASES

GEN/BEAM PerLong

TR/PLATE PerComb

QD/SHELL PerMax

BAR PerLong

TR/MEMB PerComb

VeriSTAR

Ship : PR9156-U State : First state (16/01/98)

Model : scantling (04/06/98) DSA Top Down : middle hold

3Class & Risk Management _ Shipping and the Law, Naples, 3 October 2013

The risk management philosophy

► Traditional way to produce safety regulations based on a deterministic philosophy being called into questions

► New approaches to maritime safety with risk-based rulemaking

► Risk definition

► Risk management recognised as a part of good management practise

Risk Management – the two key

questions

What is the chance of the risk occuring ?

What are the consequences if the risk does occur ?

Identify

Measure/ Evaluate

Action(s)

The three stages

4Class & Risk Management _ Shipping and the Law, Naples, 3 October 2013

Implementation of risk management methods

► FSA: Formal Safety Assessment

► Applied in many sectors regarded as risk-prone

► Offshore industry : the Safety Case

Origin : Piper Alpha accident (1988)

Norway and the UK both shifted from prescriptive to goal‐setting regulation

Requires a Safety Case to make the case to the regulator that the proposed installation and its operation are safe

5Class & Risk Management _ Shipping and the Law, Naples, 3 October 2013

► Introduced in 1993 by UK at IMO

► Defined as “a rational and systematic process for accessing the risk related to maritime safety and the protection of the marine environment and for evaluating the costs and benefits of IMO’s options for reducing these risks”

► FSA Guidelines defined by IMO

► Applied to high-speed craft, oil tankers (propulsion and emergency steering devices), bulk carriers (Double Side Skin)

► Series of problems raised by FSA

► Possible links between FSA and GBS

New approaches in the maritime safety regulatory regime:Formal Safety Assessment (FSA)

6Class & Risk Management _ Shipping and the Law, Naples, 3 October 2013

FSA: A five step risk based approach

Definition of Goals, Systems, Operations

Hazard Identification

Cause and Frequency Analysis

Consequence Analysis

Risk Summation

Risk Controlled?

Options to decrease

Frequencies

Options to mitigate

Consequences

Cost Benefit Assessment

Reporting

NoNo

Yes

Scenario definition

Step 1Hazard Identification

Step 2Risk Assessment

Step 3Risk Control Options

Step 4 - Cost BenefitAssessment

Step 5 - Recommendationsfor Decision Making

Preparatory Step

7Class & Risk Management _ Shipping and the Law, Naples, 3 October 2013

Classification and risk management approach

► Genesis of classification rules

State of the art of the naval architecture

Return of experience

► 3 factors have impacted new rules

Development of GBS

New technical challenges

Recognition of alternative design

8Class & Risk Management _ Shipping and the Law, Naples, 3 October 2013

Goal Based Standards (GBS) and Common Structural Rules (CSR)

Goals

Functional requirements

Prescriptive Regulations & Class Rules

Applicable industry and Code of Practice

Verification criteria

TIER I

TIER II

TIER III

TIER IV

TIER V

9Class & Risk Management _ Shipping and the Law, Naples, 3 October 2013

Classification rules for very large vessel

► Mega containerships

New hydro structural issues in design and verification processes

Springing and whipping phenomena

Slamming effect

► Very Large Ore Carriers

Procedure for directly calculating fatigue assessment

Advanced calculations ensure that all critical structures are adequately designed to meet specified fatigue and strength requirements

► Ultra Large Crude Carriers

10Class & Risk Management _ Shipping and the Law, Naples, 3 October 2013

Classification of ships/units in Arctic conditions

NSR cargo transit is growing

2012 : 46 transits (1.3 M tons)

2021 : 40 M tons (est.)

Bureau Veritas Artic initiatives

Ice Class Rules and Notations

IceSTAR Software Tool

Direct Calculation of ice loads for a Panamax bulk carrier

Design considerations/studies of a LNG carrier/FPU for operation in the Arctic

NSR6,920 nm (*)

SCR11,430 nm (*)

The Northern Sea Route (NSR)

(*) = Hamburg - Shanghai

11Class & Risk Management _ Shipping and the Law, Naples, 3 October 2013

Risk base substantiation alternative designs

► Risk analysis: a recognized means to support design

well established in the offshore industry

when designs have to met specified safety criteria set by an operator or a regulation authority

► Ship design to be risk-based ?

SOLAS reg. II-2 /17 allows alternative designs to be substantiated by a risk analysis for passenger ships

► It provides flexibility in order to adapt safety measures to novel designs in a reasonable manner, as long as the proposed alternative is demonstrated to be as safe as the prescriptive solution.

12Class & Risk Management _ Shipping and the Law, Naples, 3 October 2013

Conclusion: consequences for the shipping community

► New duties for class societies

Integrates risk-based methods in formulating new rules

Rules Implementation : risk-based inspection

Class provider of risk services

► Shipowner to assume a greater responsibility

Ships at a minimum level of safety

TMSA programme for tankers

► IMO : the future of maritime safety