CLARIS WP4.3 :

Continental-scale air Pollution in South America

CLARIS WP4.3: Continental-scale air pollution by South American mega cities

Guy Brasseur (MPI) and Carlos Nobre (INPE)(CNRS, INPE, UCH, MPI)

Cooperation between South American and European scientists to assess:

Impact of mega cities on air quality at the sub-continental scale (ex: Sao Paulo and Santiago)

Impact of land-use changes on air quality at the local and regional scale

Relative effects of anthropogenic versus biogenic emissions on atmospheric oxidants and aerosol abundances at the continental scale

Regional climate forcing resulting from changes in aerosols and tropospheric ozone concentrations in the past and in the future

Nesting of Regional Models in Global Chemical-Transport Models

• Regional Chemical Transport Models covering the South American continent with high resolution local spots in urban areas should be coupled to a global Chemical Transport Model (MOZART) and run with assimilated wind fields and observed lightning and biomass burning emissions

Notrogen Oxide (pptv) May, 2003

High Troposphere and Long Range Transport of High Troposphere and Long Range Transport of COCO

250mbar

INPE-CPTEC

Ozone Change 2000-2100 A2

Surface annual average of present-day CO and NOx anthropogenic emissions in 109 molec.cm -2 .s -1.

Surface annual average of present-day CO and NOx anthropogenic emissions in 109 molec.cm -2 .s -1.

Present-day Surface Emissions

CO NOx

Yearly surface average of anthropogenic emissions of CO (right) and NOx (left) . Absolute differences between 1890 and 2000 (top), and between 2000 et 2100 (bottom) in 109 molec.cm -2 .s –1.

1890-2000

2000-2100

A2 scenario

NOx CO

Emissions

1890

2000

2100

Jan JulyCO Mixing Ratio (ppbv)

CO Mixing Ratio (ppbv)

A2

NOx Mixing Ratio (pptv)

NOx Mixing Ratio (pptv)

Jan July

1890

2000

2100

A2

January July2000

Surface Ozone (ppbv)

Challenges for the Future

CLIMATE

(Gas-phase)CHEMISTRY ECOSYSTEMS

AEROSOLS GREENHOUSE GASES

Greenhouse Effect

CO2

Direct and Indirect Effects / Feedbacks on natural sources

CH4, O3,N2O, CFC

HumanEmissions

HumanEmissions

HumanEmissions

Land-useChange, Fires

Oxidants:OH, H2O2

HO2,O3

Fires: sootMineral dust

Biogenic Emissions:CH4,DMS,VOC’sDry deposition: stomatal conductance

N deposition03, UV radiation

The future: a full treatment of climate-chemistry-ecosystem-land surface feedbacks

LAND WATER / CITIES

Damming / Irrigation / Emission of heat

Heat island effect

Based on P. Cox, 2004

GOES ABBA Source Emission for COGOES ABBA Source Emission for CO 19SEP2002 - kg/(m19SEP2002 - kg/(m22s)s)

An example of the biomass burning inventory:An example of the biomass burning inventory:AAugust 2004ugust 2004

August

September

Monthly Carbon Monoxide Emission Estimation for Monthly Carbon Monoxide Emission Estimation for

20022002Hybrid remote sensing fire products: GOES WF_ABBA AVHRR and GOES Hybrid remote sensing fire products: GOES WF_ABBA AVHRR and GOES

(INPE) MODIS (NASA)(INPE) MODIS (NASA)

Freitas et al 2005 Duncan et al.2003 EDGAR 3.2Freitas et al 2005 Duncan et al.2003 EDGAR 3.2

www.cptec.inpe.br/www.cptec.inpe.br/

meio_ambientemeio_ambiente

Carbon Monoxide (ppb 72 m)Carbon Monoxide (ppb 72 m)Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004

Carbon Monoxide Source Emission Carbon Monoxide Source Emission (kg/m(kg/m22 s) - 3/September/2004s) - 3/September/2004

GOES+METEOSAT IR GOES+METEOSAT IR 2100Z/4/September/20042100Z/4/September/2004

Carbon Monoxide (ppb 10700 m)Carbon Monoxide (ppb 10700 m)Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004

Upper troposphere transport associated Upper troposphere transport associated to the a mid-latitude cold front approachto the a mid-latitude cold front approach

An example of CATT-BRAMS output:An example of CATT-BRAMS output:South American and African biomass South American and African biomass

burning plumes – Aug/2002burning plumes – Aug/2002

GOES+METEOSAT IR GOES+METEOSAT IR 2100Z/4/September/20042100Z/4/September/2004

Wet removal of PM2.5 (mg/mWet removal of PM2.5 (mg/m22 ))Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004

Wet removal of PM2.5 associated to the Wet removal of PM2.5 associated to the a mid-latitude cold front approacha mid-latitude cold front approach

Mexico City from Satellites – 1GOME NO2 December average

Data courtesy J. Burrows, U. BremenProcessing by S. Massie, NCAR

Chemical Weather seen from Space

CLARIS WP4.3 Deliverables

D4.10 (month 12): Implementation of atmospheric chemistry/transport models in South American institutions (“trans-national technology transfer”).

D4.11 (month 18): Joint development (studies/analysis) of detailed emission inventories (natural and anthropogenic compounds) for South America (Exchanges of scientific visitors).

D4.12 (month 24): Joint study/analysis focusing on the evaluation of model simulations and of the impact of environmental policies.

D4.13 (month 36): Training of South American scientists and students at European Institutions for the use of global and regional atmospheric chemical models

The End

Muchas Gracias

Obrigado

Merci