Civitas Institute Poll Presentation
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Transcript of Civitas Institute Poll Presentation
Civitas Institute Poll Presentation
October 2013
600 Registered Voters: 25% Cell
Margin of Error =+/-4.00%
Field Dates: October 20-24, 2013
National Research
22%
12%
8%29%
28%
Registration - Self-ID
Strong GOP GOPDemocrat Strong DemocratIndependent
Party Registration
34%
43%
23%
Registration as Polled
Republican Democrat Independent
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Party RegistrationCarolinaTransparency.com
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Jan '1
1
Feb '1
1
Mar '11
May '1
1Jul '1
1
Sep '1
1
Oct '11
Jan '1
2
Feb '1
2
Mar '12
May '1
2
July '12
Sep '1
2
Oct '12
Jan '1
3
Feb '1
3
Mar '13
Apr '13
May '1
3
Jun '13
Oct '13
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
20%
44%
31%
Liberal Conservative Moderate
If you were to label yourself, would you say you are a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative in your political beliefs?
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Performance Data
1-4 5-7 8-100%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2%5%
92%
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On a scale of one to ten, how likely are you to vote in the 2014 election for national and state offices? 1 = Not at all likely 5 = 50/50 10 = Certain you will
Oct
'12
Oct
'1310%
20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
40%
19%
55%
75%
Right Direction Wrong Track
Do you feel things in the United States are generally headed in the right direction or have gotten off on the wrong track?
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Jan
'11
Feb
'11
Mar
'11
May
'11
Jul '
11Se
p '1
1O
ct '1
1Ja
n '1
2Fe
b '1
2M
ay '1
2Ju
l '12
Sep
'12
Oct
'12
Jan
'13
Feb
'13
Mar
'13
Apr '
13M
ay '1
3Ju
n '1
3O
ct '1
320%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%
33%
57%
Right Direction Wrong Track
Do you feel things in North Carolina are generally headed in the right direction or have gotten off on the wrong track?
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Jan '12
Mar '12
May '12
Jul '12
Sep '12
Nov '12
Jan '13
Feb '13
Mar '13
Apr '13
May '13
Oct '13
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
37%
0.38
Republican Democrat
And if the election for the North Carolina State Legislature were held today, would you be voting for the:
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Elect a Republican who will support Governor McCrory's
programs and policies.
Elect a Democrat who will be a check and balance to Governor
McCrory's policies and programs.
Don’t Know/Neither/Other
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
38%
41%
20%
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And if the election for North Carolina State Legislature were held today which of the following is more important to you? Would you rather…
Elect a Republican who will be a check and balance to President Obama’s policies and programs.
Elect a Democrat who will support President Obama’s
programs and policies.
Don’t Know/Neither/Other
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
48%
37%
15%
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In the next election for US Senator from North Carolina, which of the following is more important to you? Would you rather…
Feb '13 May '13 Oct '1330%
40%
50%48%
37%
Elect Republican Elect Democrat
In the next election for US Senator from North Carolina, which of the following is more important to you? Would you rather…
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0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
28% 15% 8% 43% 5%
Very Favorable Somewhat FavorableSomewhat Unfavorable Very UnfavorableNo Opinion
Favorability – President Barack Obama
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Jan '12
Feb '12
Mar '12
May '12
Jul '12
Sept '12
Nov '12
Jan '13
Feb '13
Mar '13
May '13
Jun '13
Oct '13
40%
50%
60%
43%
52%
Favorable Unfavorable
Now, please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Barack Obama.
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Jan '12
Feb '12
Mar '12
May '12
Jul '12
Sept '12
Nov '12
Jan '13
Feb '13
Mar '13
May '13
Oct '13
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
44%
53%
Approve Disapprove
Now, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President of the United States.
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When I say the name "President Barack Obama," what one or two descriptive words come to mind?
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0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
17% 26% 15% 29% 12%
Very Favorable Somewhat FavorableSomewhat Unfavorable Very UnfavorableNo Opinion
Favorability – Governor Pat McCrory
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Jan '12 Feb '12 Mar '12 May '13 Jun '13 Oct '130%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
43%44%
Favorable Unfavorable
Now, please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Governor Pat McCrory.
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Jan '12 Feb '12 Mar '12 May '13 Oct '130%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
46%44%
Approve Disapprove
Now, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the job that Pat McCrory is doing as Governor of North Carolina.
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When I say the name "Governor Pat McCrory," what one or two descriptive words come to mind?
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0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
14% 26% 13% 22% 23%
Very Favorable Somewhat FavorableSomewhat Unfavorable Very UnfavorableNo Opinion
Favorability – Senator Kay Hagan
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Mar '13 Jun '13 Oct '1320%
30%
40%
50%
40%
34%
Favorable Unfavorable
Now, please tell if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Senator Kay Hagan.
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Jan '13 Feb '13 Oct '1320%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
43%
37%
Approve Disapprove
Now, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the job that Kay Hagan is doing as US Senator.
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Re-elect New Person Undecided/Don't Know/More Info
Needed
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
18%Definitely
35%Definitely
19%
12% Probably
15%Probably
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Has Kay Hagan performed her job as US Senator well enough to deserve re-election, or is it time to give a new person a chance?
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
9% 22% 14% 14% 30%
Very Favorable Somewhat FavorableSomewhat Unfavorable Very UnfavorableNo Opinion
Favorability – Richard Burr
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Now, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the job that Richard Burr is doing as US Senator.
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7%
29%18%
16%Strong ApproveSomewhat ApproveSomewhat Dis-saproveStrong Disapprove
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
15% 17% 11% 39% 15%
Very Favorable Somewhat FavorableSomewhat Unfavorable Very UnfavorableNo Opinion
Favorability – Tea Party
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Oct '11 Jul '13 Oct '1320%
30%
40%
50%
60%
32%
50%
Favorable Unfavorable
Now, please tell if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party.
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If the Republican primary for US Senate were being held today and you had to make a choice, for which candidate would you vote between… (Rep & UNA voters Only)
Harris
Tillis
Grant
Brannon
Undecided
Not Voting
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
4% 5% 2% 3%
57%
19%
North Carolina Taxes
When I mention North Carolina state taxes what comes to mind?
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Raised sales taxLowered everyone's income tax
ratesCut taxes on the wealthy
Raised income taxes
Nothing
Eliminated tax deductions
Other/Don't Know
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
19%
19%
16%
16%
13%
7%
34%
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In North Carolina, what action did the General Assembly take when it came to taxes? (More than one response accepted)
Overall, have your taxes gone up, gone down or have they stayed the same over the last year?
Gone up Gone down Stayed the same
Don't Know0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
50%
4%
35%
11%
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National Issues
Support Oppose Don't Know/No Opinion
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
26%Strongly
45%Strongly
10%
10% Somewhat
8%Somewhat
36%
54%
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Do you support or oppose the new health care law known as The Affordable Care Act? (Split Sample)
Access
Fair
Helps the Poor
Necessity
Affordable
Favorable
Pre-existing Conditions
Other/None/Don't Know
0% 10% 20% 30%
22%
16%
16%
16%
13%
13%
1%
12%
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And why do you support The Affordable Care Act?
Cost
Mandate
Won't Work
Unfavorable
Socialism
Unfair
Have Insurance
Other/None/Don't Know
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
28%
16%
13%
12%
7%
7%
6%
33%
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And why do you oppose The Affordable Care Act?
Support Oppose Don't Know/No Opinion
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
27%Strongly
44%Strongly
11%
12% Somewhat
7%Somewhat
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Do you support or oppose the new health care law known as “Obamacare”?
39%
51%
Fair
Access
Affordable
Favorable
Necessity
Pre-existing Conditions
Helps the Poor
Other/None/Don't Know
0% 10% 20% 30%
24%
21%
17%
14%
11%
10%
8%
9%
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And why do you support Obamacare?
Cost
Mandate
Socialism
Won't Work
Taxes
Complicated
Unfavorable
Other/None/Don't Know
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
27%
24%
14%
11%
9%
7%
6%
33%
#CivitasPoll
And why do you oppose Obamacare?
Don't Know/No Opinion
Oppose
Support
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Obamacare - 11%
Obamacare - 50%
ACA - 10%
ACA - 54%
ACA - 36%
Obamacare - 38%
Do you support or oppose the new health care law known as The Affordable Care Act/“Obamacare”?
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Yes
No
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Total - 9%
90%
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With the newly enacted federal health care law, the federal government is running a health care exchange for individuals to purchase health insurance. Have you had any experience with the health care exchange?
I have signed up - 3%I was unsuccessful in accessing - 3%I accessed but have not signed up - 3%
Republican
President Obama and Democrats in Washington DC
Republican Members of Congress in Washington DC
Both Equally
Don't Know
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
31%
42%
24%
3%
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In your opinion, who would you say is mostly to blame for the Federal Government shutdown that happened earlier this month...
31%
69%
1%
YesNoDon't Know
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Did the recently concluded Federal Government shutdown impact you or someone in your family personally?
Republican
FurloughedLoss of Pay
Saw and ImpactServices
Military ImpactVacation
Financial ImpactEmotional ImpactFederal Employee
Other/None0% 10% 20% 30%
23%17%
15%10%10%
8%7%
5%4%
17%
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And how were you impacted?
Questions?
Keep in touch with [email protected]/CivitasInstituteyoutube.com/CivitasInstitute
72%
22%
3% 1%
WhiteBlackLatinoNative American
Ethnicity
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66+ 56-65 41-55 26-40 18-250%
10%
20%
30%
25%
20%
25%
17%
8%
Age
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48%52%MenWomen
Gender
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Don’t Know/Refused
Spouse
Unemployed
Work for Government
Self Employed
Work for Private Company
Retired
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
3%
4%
8%
9%
11%
32%
33%
Employment
#CivitasPoll
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
32%33%
Are Self Employed Work for a Private Company Work for GovernmentAre a Spouse Are Retired Are Unemployed
In terms of your current employment status, would you say you…
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Other/Don't Know/Refused
Disability or injury
No work available
My Age
Able to financially retire
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
12%
14%
3%
53%
18%
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And what would you say is the MAIN reason that you are retired?
Tumblr
NoOther/Don't
Know
46%
13%
3%
12%
7%
10%
3%
50%
1%
Social Media Use
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Northeast
Southeast
Western
Piedmont Triad
Charlotte
Triangle
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
11%
15%
15%
18%
19%
22%
Geographic Area
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