City Special: Eindhoven · example of a successful business campus, and indeed one of the...

REPORT

Savills Research

The Netherlands – Winter 2019

City Special: Eindhoven

The report G4 to G5 (Savills, 2017) showed that metropolitan Eindhoven now measures up against the traditional “top four” Dutch cities (the G4). The region has continued to develop in recent years, driven in large part by strong growth of its technology sector. This was confirmed in a recent analysis by the newspaper Het Financieele Dagblad (FD), which found that Eindhoven is now the third largest economic region in the Netherlands, after Amsterdam and Utrecht. This despite it having a lower population and a far smaller urban core than other G5 cities. However, the FD article also noted some of the challenges facing Eindhoven – primarily with regard to accessibility.

Office market in the G5 citiesIn the other G5 cities (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Utrecht and The Hague), the office market is taking full advantage of the growing economy. In an increasing number of them, indeed, and particularly in specific districts within them, there is now actually a substantial shortage of office space. As a result, companies are moving to smaller neighbouring municipalities in what is known as the “ripple effect”. In these neighbouring municipalities, such as Nieuwegein near Utrecht and Hoofddorp near Amsterdam, demand is therefore rising, vacancy rates are falling and rents are on the increase.

Eindhoven has traditionally had a different profile in terms of its office market: it is viewed more as a commercial centre than an office city. But does this mean that the strong overall economic growth of recent years is having a much more limited positive impact on the Eindhoven office market than in the other G5 cities? Or are there now shortages there, too, complete with a “ripple effect” into the surrounding area? And what challenges in general do Eindhoven and its region face?

60 minutes’ drive Amsterdam: 7,668,062Eindhoven: 8,056,250

Map Population within 60 minutes’ drive

Source Savills Research

In recent years, urban centres (hubs) have acted as a powerful magnet for students, residents, tourists and businesses. Good mobility between the Dutch hubs and their comprehensive facilities are driving further urbanisation in and around city centres. The Eindhoven region is no exception.

The region as the ultimate growth solution Map Eindhoven is an important part of an economic region

Key City of Eindhoven Greater Eindhoven Brainport Eindhoven


Twenty-one municipalities in south-east Brabant have joined forces in an economic partnership which profiles itself as “Brainport Eindhoven”. Greater Eindhoven, also known officially as the Eindhoven Metropolitan Region (Stedelijk Gebied Eindhoven), is centrally located within this cluster and consists of nine municipalities: Best, Eindhoven, Geldrop-Mierlo, Helmond, Nuenen, Gerwen en Nederwetten, Oirschot, Son en Breugel, Veldhoven and Waalre. The City of Eindhoven proper is at the heart of both regional alliances. All 21 participating municipalities are taking full advantage of the region’s growth, although the positive effects are greatest for the eight closest to Eindhoven itself. This is simply because most Brainport companies are located in them or in the core city.

Eindhoven profiles itself strongly as a region, but is the office market in neighbouring municipalities also benefiting from this regional approach and the strong growth of the technology sector?

Eindhoven is an important part of an economic region

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City Special Eindhoven

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FROM G4 TO G5Eindhoven is now the third largest economic region in the Netherlands, after Amsterdam and Utrecht.

8,056,250Eindhoven

7,668,062Amsterdam

8,887Area (ha)

231,642Population

EINDHOVEN

21,949Area (ha)

862,965Population

AMSTERDAM

32,416Area (ha)

644,618Population

ROTTERDAM

9,813Area (ha)

537,833Population

THE HAGUE

9,921Area (ha)

352,866Population

UTRECHT

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POPULATIONThe Eindhoven region will experience above-average population growth until 2040.

Despite the general brake on economic growth in the Eurozone, it remains above average in the Netherlands as a whole (+1.9 per cent YoY in 2019 Q2). And in Brainport Eindhoven it has exceeded the national rate every year since 2013. Growth there amounted to 3.3 per cent in 2018, compared with 2.6 per cent for the overall Dutch economy. One major reason for this is the region’s strong focus on the technology sector, which is growing faster than other parts of the economy and is attracting substantial

investments. For years now, in fact, this sector has been growing at “double-digit” rates (> 10 per cent per annum). Moreover, Brainport Eindhoven accounts for more than a fifth of total private R&D expenditure in the Netherlands. This factor

ensures that the region is responsible for generating 5.1% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It is also why Brainport Eindhoven has been recognised since 2016 as a Dutch “mainport”, alongside Amsterdam (Schiphol Airport) and Rotterdam (seaport).

Graph Gross Domestic Product Growth RateKey Brainport Eindhoven The Netherlands


Brainport Eindhoven has been recognised since 2016 as a Dutch “mainport”, alongside Amsterdam (Schiphol Airport) and Rotterdam (seaport)

Boost from TechnologyTechnology sector continues to boost economic growth

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The region’s above-average economic growth is a huge demographic magnet, resulting in a fast-growing population.

The city of Eindhoven is expected to have more than 250,000 residents in 2040 (+9.06 per cent). A large part of this increase will be absorbed by inner-city housing developments near the central station (Knoop XL, Stadhuisplein) and at Strijp-S. But the city alone cannot house all these newcomers. Due in part to “overflow” from Eindhoven, the regional population will rise from just

over 500,000 people now to almost 550,000 by 2040. It is actually remarkable that the surrounding municipalities have been growing so strongly, as smaller towns in the Netherlands predominantly have lower-than-average growth rates at present. It is expected that six of the nine municipalities in the Eindhoven region will experience above-average population growth until 2040.

Economic growth attracts people

Due in part to “overflow” from Eindhoven, the regional population will rise from just over 500,000 people now to almost 550,000 by 2040

Graph Expected population growth, Eindhoven Metropolitan Region, 2019-2040

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The economic growth of Brainport Eindhoven has exceeded the national average since 20133.3%



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TrendsCampus development as an engine of growth

To facilitate population growth, Eindhoven opts for inspansion

Business campuses, at which more or less compatible companies congregate on a single site, are being created at more and more locations in the Netherlands.

Literally meaning “open space” or “field”, in this modern sense a campus is a cluster of organisations of various types and with different functions, but with some common factors. One major advantage of such arrangements is that they facilitate collaboration and the exchange of knowledge, which in turn expedite growth. A good example of a successful business campus, and indeed one of the best-known in the Netherlands, is the High Tech Campus (HTC) in Eindhoven itself. But it is by no means the only one in the region.

In fact, the six campuses in and around Eindhoven represent the greatest concentration of such clusters in the country. And they are having demonstrably positive spin-off effects, both within their compounds and beyond. On the HTC, for example, numerous high-tech companies actively engaged in R&D are being established. As well as growing in its own right, the HTC also inspired the creation of the nearby Brainport

Industries Campus (BIC). This features the same form of clustering, but with a focus on high-tech manufacturing. It is often thought that the majority of campus-based firms are primarily industrial or research-oriented. However, this is really not always the case. In fact, offices usually make up a substantial proportion of their premises. At the HTC, for example, almost two-thirds of the available floor area is devoted to office functions. The remainder is divided between research (laboratories), production and other uses. This means that business campuses need be taken properly into account when analysing a city’s office market.

It is clear that the Eindhoven region has experienced above-average economic growth in recent years, and the forecasts remain positive. As a result, we should also expect the office market to be developing favourably. But is that indeed the case, and what are the expectations?

Map Campus developments in the Eindhoven Metropolitan Region



EINDHOVEN OFFICE MARKET BENEFITS AT LAST FROM ECONOMIC SUCCESS

Unlike in the other G5 cities, in Eindhoven office vacancy rates barely declined prior to 2018. Whereas Amsterdam and Utrecht saw rates fall steadily from 2013 onwards and the same trend has been observed in The Hague and Rotterdam since 2016, in the Eindhoven region levels of non-occupation remained relatively stable and above average until last year.

This is despite the fact that, starting in 2012, a considerable number of office buildings were withdrawn from the stock for conversion into dwellings and hotels. From this we can only conclude that intrinsic demand for office.

Eindhoven Airport The second largest in the country

Domestic rail Eindhoven-Utrecht-Amsterdam services at ten-minute intervals

Domestic rail Eindhoven-Tilburg-Breda-Rotterdam-The Hague services at ten-minute intervals from 2022

International rail Direct Eindhoven-Düsseldorf intercity services from 2025

MOBILITY TO AND FROM EINDHOVEN

It is not only on the region’s business campuses that functions are combined intensively.

As well as mixing functions, enlarging the overall housing stock is essential to cope with population growth. At government level, it has been decided that 27,000 additional homes are to be created in the Eindhoven region between now and 2024 – 15,000 of them in the city itself. This growth will be facilitated largely through the construction of more high-rise buildings. To make that

possible, in October 2019 the local planning regulations were relaxed to allow towers higher than 105 metres at more locations in the city centre. With several projects already on the drawing board, such as the District E development and the Bunkertoren tower, the Eindhoven skyline is set to change forever over the next few years.

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Graph Skyline Einhoven. Eindhoven grows upwardsKey Extant Planned Projected

Knoop XL Eindhoven

Large-scale development on a 55-hectare site in central Eindhoven

Close to the central railway station

Creation of 5,000-8,000 additional homes

Number of residents to increase from about 200 to approximately 15,000

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The relatively stagnant regional office market finally saw an upturn from 2016 onwards, a trend which accelerated in 2018

The relatively stagnant regional office market finally saw an upturn from 2016 onwards, a trend which accelerated in 2018. The vacancy rate has now fallen substantially, to around 9 per cent, whereas only a few years ago it was more than 15 per cent. And in the city of Eindhoven it has almost halved, from over 15 per cent to 8.4 per cent now. This means that, for the first time in more than 10 years, the vacancy rate has fallen below the national average. It is striking, too, that in the past two years this trend has been fuelled not by conversions eliminating stock but by a sharp rise in intrinsic demand. As in the other G5 cities, this effect is greatest in areas with good accessibility by public and private transport, such as central Eindhoven. The vacancy rate there has fallen from 16.4 per cent in 2016 to 5.6 per cent currently.

Graph Office stock development in the Eindhoven region now positive

Graph Stock and vacancy trends in central Eindhoven: accessible locations are performing well

By far the greatest interest is in modern premises in the central area. And there lies the rub, because – compared with the other G5 cities – in economic terms Eindhoven’s office stock is relatively old.

An analysis of stock’s energy labelsThis is apparent from an analysis of that stock’s energy labels, a good indicator of its economic and technical condition. From this it is evident that, on average, offices in Eindhoven are economically and technically “older” than their counterparts in the other G5 cities. Only about 40 per cent of the city’s stock qualifies for energy label A, a share almost 15 per cent behind that in the rest of the G5. Certainly now that demand for energy-efficient premises is sure to increase further in the coming years due to the sustainability issue, this is a major challenge for Eindhoven.

This is not the only challenge it faces, though. Another is the increasingly popularity, both domestically and internationally, of offices in the vicinity of railway stations. A trend mirrored by declining demand for locations along motorways, for example. And whereas Amsterdam has ten main-line stations, Rotterdam seven, Utrecht eight and The Hague seven, Eindhoven only has two within its city boundaries. This makes it hard to create residential and work hubs easily accessible by rail as well as road at multiple locations in the city. One possible solution to this impediment is co-operation at the regional level. Helmond, Best and Geldrop-Mierlo have another six railway stations between them, which could also become (modest) hubs in the future. These locations have the further advantage that they are all only a few minutes from Eindhoven by train.

This is not the only form of synergy within the region. Many companies, among them VDL, Philips and ASML, have premises both in Eindhoven itself and in neighbouring municipalities. The extent of this synergy is apparent from the stock figures, which show that 26 per cent of all the region’s offices are outside the city proper, in surrounding municipalities, even though these are generally viewed as hosting primarily commercial premises and only quite limited office space. In fact, the synergy is so strong that office vacancy rates have fallen sharply in those areas in the past few years – so much so that in five of the eight they are now lower than in Eindhoven itself.

Key Eindhoven Other G5 Cities

Graph Office stock by energy label: Eindhoven has considerable ground to make up


Selective shortage of high-quality offices beginning to emerge. But not all office buildings in the region are suddenly in demand again.

Eindhoven’s office stock

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Of Eindhoven’s stock qualifies for energy label A, a share 15 per cent behind that in the rest of the G5 40%

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Key Stock New Developments Withdrawals Vacancy

Key Stock New Developments Withdrawals Vacancy

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A B C D E F G

This means that no less than 85 per cent of activity was in Eindhoven itself. But the past five years have seen take up outside the city rise by an impressive 216 per cent, due in part to ASML’s expansion of its activities in Veldhoven. As a result, in 2018 more than 30 per cent of regional take up was outside Eindhoven.

Partly because of this increased interest among occupiers in the wider region, 2018 has been a record year. The regional ten-year average for take up by volume is approximately 90,000 m², but since 2015 there has been visible growth and the figure has never fallen below that long-term mean. And although 2019 is not yet over, it looks set to be another good year with above-average performance.

The prevailing wisdom is that 2019 could actually have brought a new record, if only there had been sufficient supply. As stated earlier, there is a clear trend in the Netherlands that occupiers are looking for high-quality office space close to public transport hubs. This can also be seen in Eindhoven. The recent advance lease of 7,000 m² by AM to Vodafone-Ziggo in the planned Lichthoven building on Stationsplein is a good example. The demand in recent years for large office premises in the city centre is also clear from the take up by BCN (3,250 m²), Regus (2,500 m²) and Here Technologies (6,500 m²) of space in the Kennedytoren. Despite the fact that this is one of the most expensive office locations in Eindhoven, its accessibility and user comfort have proved a winning combination.

Because the supply of top-quality office premises in central Eindhoven remains very limited, we are now seeing owners of older buildings, too, renovate them and find new tenants, sometimes after spending many years empty. One good example is Fellenoord 310-370, owned by NSI. Originally built in 1986, this property has recently been fully let after years of vacancy. In addition, Somerset Capital Partners recently purchased Holiday Inn in order to explore new build possibilities. Holiday Inn is strategically located and is in close proximity to the previous mentioned building.

Key Total Average

Key Total End of year Average

Graph Take up by volume in municipalities around Eindhoven up more than 200 per cent in past five years

Graph Another good year: take up by volume in the Eindhoven region to 2019


User activity in the municipalities around Eindhoven has increased considerably in recent years.

More and more occupiers settling in the wider region

The Dutch office market has undergone massive flexibilisation in recent years

Fuelled in part by the creation of new high-quality office space, such as that in the Knoop XL development, there is an expectation that supply will actually stimulate demand to make Eindhoven city centre a true G5 hub with a good mix of functions

Rent diversity fosters entrepreneurshipThe Dutch office market has undergone massive flexibilisation in recent years. After initially being taken up mainly by start-ups and freelance workers, flexible office space is now attracting more and more corporates and SMEs through deals with operators. Eindhoven is no exception to this trend.

As well as this more flexible product offering, another driver of entrepreneurship is a wide variety of rental price points. Start-ups can rent relatively cheaply in the Eindhoven

region, and later possibly move to larger premises with more facilities as they expand. Because the city still has a good supply of older office space at central locations, such as the station area, a varied selection is available in terms of both quality and price. At Fellenoord on the north side of the city centre, for example, premises are available for just €80 per square metres. By contrast, modern office space in the Kennedytoren tower near the station can cost €180 per square metres.

Graph Wide rent diversity in Eindhoven ensures varied selection of office space


Photo Max Kneefel

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Despite this success, a danger lurks. The big question is whether Eindhoven can continue to satisfy demand for high-quality office space close to public-transport hubs over the coming years.

And now the region…

This uncertainty applies to both the occupier and the investment markets. A significant proportion of the vacant buildings in the city centre have been or are due to be converted to other functions, primarily residential. Despite the increasing demand now for high-quality, centrally located offices, both the current supply and the new-build pipeline are limited. The only major standalone project of this kind near a station is Lichthoven, with 11,200 m² of office space. But it is not scheduled for completion until 2022.

This is the major challenge facing the city of Eindhoven, exacerbated by the fact

that creating multiple high-quality hubs combining work, residential and leisure functions is more difficult without enough railway stations to serve them all. The solution, however, is not far away. The wider region does have several stations, all just a few minutes from Eindhoven itself, so it can help facilitate the predicted growth. As in the other G5 cities, surrounding municipalities would thus benefit from their role in easing the pressure within the city itself (the so-called “ripple effect”). In particular, locations in the vicinity of stations have great potential as attractive places to live and work.

If the qualities of easily accessible locations within the Eindhoven region can be combined with the campus concept, the right kind of supply should create additional demand

Ripple effect

The only really large recent transaction had been the purchase of the High Tech Campus (350,000 m²) for €425,000,000 by Marcel Boekhoorn’s Chalet Group. Apart from that, all was quiet in the Eindhoven office market. Since 2018, however, things have changed. The sale in 2017 of the Kennedytoren and the adjacent building at Kennedyplein 101 seems to have triggered other investors, foreign as well as Dutch, into action. At the beginning of this year, for instance, Aberdeen acquired Kennedyplein 300 for an atypically keen return by local standards of under 6 per cent.

So the Eindhoven region is now raising its market profile. Dutch investors, particularly private ones, are still the most active players,

but more and more international funds are finding their way there. To date, 2019 has been the first year ever in which their investments in Eindhoven have exceeded domestic ones (58.2 per cent). This trend is expected to accelerate thanks to the strong growth of the regional technology sector and its spin-off effects for the office market.

Increasing demand in urban areasIt is striking that two-thirds of the capital invested in the past two years has gone into buildings within walking distance of Eindhoven Central Station. Here once again, the city is following the national trend of increasing demand for mixed residential and work locations in urban areas.


Key Domestic Capital Foreign Capital Average

Graph Foreign investment overtakes domestic outlay for first time in 2019

Investors now appreciate EindhovenPrior to 2017, Eindhoven attracted little interest from institutional investors and other major players.

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Photo Bart van Overbeeke Photography

OUTLOOKEindhoven has made great

strides in recent years



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Source Statistics Netherlands (CBS), ING, Link Magazine, Dutch Railways (NS), BAK, City of Eindhoven, Savills Research.

Savills World ResearchWe provide bespoke services for landowners, developers, occupiers and investors across the lifecycle of residential, commercial or mixed-use projects. We add value by providing our clients with research-backed advice and consultancy through our market-leading global research team

Savills plc: Savills plc is a global real estate services provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. We have an international network of more than 600 offices and associates throughout the Americas, the UK, continental Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East, offering a broad range of specialist advisory, management and transactional services to clients all over the world. This report is for general informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior consent. While every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research.

Erik BeekmanHead of Agency+31 (0) 20 301 [email protected]

Clive PritchardHead of Country +31(0)20 301 [email protected]

Martijn OnderstalCo-Head of Valuation+31 (0) 20 301 [email protected]

Jordy DiepenveenHead of Acquisitions +31 (0) 20 301 [email protected]

Jordy KleemansHead of Research & Consultancy+31 (0) 20 301 20 94 [email protected]

Ed BouterseHead of Workthere Europe+31 (0) 20 301 [email protected]

1The economic growth of Brainport Eindhoven has exceeded the national

average since 2013. In 2018 it was 3.3 per cent, compared with 2.6% for the Netherlands as a whole.

2As well as city-centre residential developments, such as Knoop

XL, more housing in neighbouring municipalities is also needed in order to facilitate predicted population growth of 9.06 per cent between now and 2040.

3Due to the growth outlined in this report, the office market in the region

is performing well. Vacancy rates in the city (8.4 per cent) and the region (9.3 per cent) have now fallen below the national average.

4The current office stock in Eindhoven does pose challenges,

however. This is because it is relatively old, both economically and technically, compared with the other G5 cities.

5Despite this, take up by volume has increased enough in recent years

that a shortage is beginning to occur,

especially in central Eindhoven (vacancy rate 5.6 per cent).

6The wider region has benefited substantially from the upturn of

the past five years. Take up of office space by volume in the neighbouring municipalities has increased by no less than 216 per cent.

7Not only is overall investment increasing, but so too is the share

accounted for by foreign capital. To date, 2019 has been the first year ever in which overseas investments in Eindhoven have exceeded domestic ones (58.2 per cent).

8Two-thirds of the capital invested in the past two years has gone into

buildings within walking distance of Eindhoven Central Station.

9Within the investment market, the ripple effect is still limited. Further

capital injections into buildings and localities are needed to further stimulate this. Government has an essential role to play here, in particular by investing in mobility.

Key findings

NOW AND THE FUTURE

As a region, a city and a brand, Eindhoven has made great strides in recent years. And its office market is taking full advantage of this. This applies to both the city and the region. Strengthened by campus developments and population growth, the result has been a sharp drop in office vacancy rates and a substantial increase in interest from occupiers and investors. Recovery is happening, but Eindhoven still faces plenty of challenges.

One of these is its relatively old office stock. Investment to improve this is slowly starting to come in, but there is an imminent danger that the city will experience a shortage of high-quality office space. Moreover, Eindhoven needs to create appealing living and working areas in order to cope with its increasing population and to continue to attract talent. This is where the pinch lies, since opportunities to do so in the vicinity of railway stations are limited because the city proper has only two of them. Here, then, the wider region has a role to play by creating such locations – perhaps in the form of specialised business campuses – around its own existing stations, and possibly new ones as well. The resulting ripple effect would stimulate the entire Eindhoven region.

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Claude Debussylaan 481082 MD Amsterdam+31 (0) 20 301 2000

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