CISN Earthquake Early Warning UC BerkeleyCaltechSCEC/USC U.S. Geological Survey Real-time testing of...

CISN Earthquake Early Warning

UC BerkeleyCaltech SCEC/USCU.S. Geological

Survey

Real-time testing of algorithms statewide

Richard Allen, UC Berkeley

What is early warning?1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress

2. Rapid notification of observed ground shaking

3. Prediction and notification of future ground shaking




AlertMap0 sec

AlertMap+2 sec

ShakeMap+ minutes

Continuum of earthquake information:1. Initial trigger

2. Rapid magnitude, early MMI observations

3. Post earthquake information

CISN statewide testing Implement pre-prototype system for algorithm testing

August 2006 – July 2009

Algorithms:

3. ElarmS – network approachUC Berkeley

2. Virtual Seismologist – network approachCaltech

1. Onsite warning – single stationCaltech/U. Taiwan

4. …others?

Algorithm implementation for a

statewide system

CISN statewide testing August 2006 – July 2009

waveform processing

seismic networks

what we plan to do…


waveform processing

Hub locations:• UC Berkeley• USGS Menlo• Caltech

seismic networks


waveform processing


waveform processing

Hub locations:• Berkeley• USGS• Caltech

• predicted ground shaking onsite

seismic networks


waveform processing

Onsite warning

output parameters


waveform processing


output parameters

• location• magnitude• predicted ground shaking

everywhere

seismic networks


Virtual Seismologist

waveform processing

Onsite warning • predicted ground shaking

onsite


waveform processing



everywhere

seismic networks


Virtual Seismologist

waveform processing

ElarmS

Onsite warning

output parameters


everywhere

• predicted ground shaking onsite


Year 1: Initial real-time outputs from EEW algorithms

Year 2: Adding uncertainty estimates; website display

Year 3: Evaluation of past and future performance

Aug ‘06

Jul ‘09

Goal: evaluation of early warning methodologies in real-time

specifications for implemented early warning system • equipment requirements

(stations)• telemetry• processing

Earthquake early warning

JapanTaiwan

Mexico

Turkey

Romania

Italy

Greece

India

United States

Operational systemsSystems under developmentaround the world

around the world

Current applications of early warning

Istanbul

• Electric power plant

• High rise building (bank)

Taiwan

• Rail system

• Hospital

Mexico and Oaxaca Cities users

• Private industry 28• Schools 84• Housing complex 1• TV/Radio stations 34 • Government offices 94• Subway 4

Japan

• Rail/Metro systems

• Fire/rescue organizations

• In home information; door/window opening; utility shut-off

• Elevator control

• Outdoor works

• Factories

• Power plants

• Hospitals

Potential applications of early warning in California

Industry Chemical plants, biotech, manufacturing, construction

isolate systems, move to a safe/hold mode reduced damage and faster business resumption

TransportationMetro, BART, airports, highways (?)

slow and stop

UtilitiesElectric, gas, water

more rapid system management, reduce cascading failures

Personal ProtectionSchools, offices, warehouses, homes

duck and cover command before shaking evacuation of dangerous single story buildings

In the future…Active response buildings and…

We are looking for partners…

Santa RosaAugust 2, 2006Magnitude 4.4

ShakeMap

AlertMap


“Alarm time”

4 sec of data at 4 stations

ShakeMap

AlertMap


ShakeMap

AlertMap


ShakeMap


Warning time: 11 sec 29 sec


event processing

Hub locations:• Berkeley• USGS• Caltech• other…?

control interface

earthquake parameters• ground shaking

• location• magnitude• predicted

ground shaking

seismic network

actions

CISN end user: not part of current CISN testing plan

Potential applications of early warning in California

Industry Chemical plants, biotech, manufacturing, construction

isolate systems, move to a safe/hold mode reduced damage and faster business resumption

TransportationMetro, BART, airports, highways (?)

slow and stop

UtilitiesElectric, gas, water

more rapid system management, reduce cascading failures

Personal ProtectionSchools, offices, warehouses, homes

duck and cover command before shaking evacuation of dangerous single story buildings

In the future…Active response buildings and…

Cost Is early warning too expensive?

J acketing

Beam Cost of retrofitting buildings:

Barrows Hall: $20 mill

Barker Hall: $14 mill

Wurster Hall: $30 mill Hearst Mining: $80 mill(base isolation)

UC Berkeley SAFER program: $20 mill per year for 20 yearsSpent $900 mill so far

Cost Is early warning too expensive?

Cost of early warning:

1. The seismic network

Installation of 600 new stations: $6 - $30 mill

Network operation: $2 - $6 mill per year

2. Transmitting warning information

3. Educational program

Existing technologies: - weather radios- satellite and internet

communications- wireless networks

• Early warning response is specific to individual users• Set in broader context of earthquake preparedness

1. The most effective system: single station + network based approaches

2. Warning times: • seconds to tens of seconds • more warning for most damaging events; up to 1

minute

3. A warning would be available to many of the affected population for most earthquakes

4. Broad range of applications• reduce the loss of life• reduce injuries• reduce damage/costs• increase speed of recovery

5. The cost is not large compared to other mitigation strategies

Earthquake early warning across California

Application and benefits of

Seismic Stations

Early warning methodologies

faul

t

S-wave

P-wave

Seismic Stations


faul

t

1st Station to detect P-wave arrival

S-wave

P-wave

Seismic Stations


faul

t


issue alarm onsite

“Single station approach”

S-wave

P-wave

faul

t



issue alarm onsite


Multiple stations detect P-wave arrivalSeismic

Stations

S-wave

P-wave

faul

t



issue alarm onsite


Multiple stations detect P-wave arrival

combine information and issue alarm everywhere

“Network approach”

Seismic Stations

S-wave

P-wave

faul

t


Multiple stations detect P-wave arrival andS-wave arrival

combine information and update alarm everywhere


Seismic Stations

S-wave

P-wave


issue alarm onsite


faul

t


Seismic Stations

S-wave

P-wave

Single station approach

• more rapid• greater uncertainty

use in epicentral region

Network approach

• slower for epicentral region

• more warning at greater distances

• more accurate

Use both approaches


event processing




ground shaking

seismic network



event processing


control interface



ground shaking

seismic network

actions

CISN end user: not part of current CISN testing plan

Warning timesin San Francisco

• From “Alarm” time (4 sec of data at 4 stations)

• Existing stations

• Telemetry upgrade

Probabilistic warning times – infrastructure upgrade• 130 stations• 2 sec telemetry• 2 stations with pT

MMI 7: moderateMMI 9: heavy damage

San Francisco





• 20 sec warning for San Francisco and Oakland

• Single station would provide <10 sec

Loma Prieta earthquake

Northern California

Probabilistic warning times

WG02 Earthquake Probabilities

Scenario ShakeMap

WG02 Report• probabilities• ground shaking

ElarmS• warning times


control interface

seismic network

actions


control interface

seismic network

actions

control interface

actions

control interface

actions

Seismic networks

UC Berkeley + USGS networks

UC Berkeley and

US Geological Survey

Currently provide rapid earthquake information e.g. ShakeMap

Statewide testing

UC Berkeley Caltech SCEC/USC

Implement pre-prototype system for algorithm testing

Participating Institutions:

U.S. Geological

Survey

Looking forward

Algorithms:

1. ElarmSUC Berkeley2. Virtual SeismologistCaltech3. Onsite warningCaltech/U. Taiwan4. …others?

Seismic Stations




faul

t

S-wave

P-wave

Seismic Stations




faul

t


S-wave

P-wave

Seismic Stations




faul

t


issue alarm onsite


S-wave

P-wave

faul

t





issue alarm onsite


Multiple stations detect P-wave arrivalSeismic

Stations

S-wave

P-wave

faul

t





issue alarm onsite


Multiple stations detect P-wave arrival

combine information and issue alarm everywhere


Seismic Stations

S-wave

P-wave

faul

t

What is early warning?

Multiple stations detect P-wave arrival andS-wave arrival

combine information and update alarm everywhere


Seismic Stations

S-wave

P-wave

1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress




issue alarm onsite


faul

t

What is early warning?

Seismic Stations

S-wave

P-wave

1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress



Single station approach

• more rapid• greater uncertainty

use in epicentral region

Network approach

• slower for epicentral region

• more warning at greater distances

• more accurate

Use both approaches

Loma Prieta

ABAG ground shaking

Oakland 66% fatalities

San Francisco 18% fatalities

Cypress viaduct collapse

Falling masonry

Apartment building collapse

84% of the fatalities were at distances which could

have received 20 sec warning





• 20 sec warning for San Francisco and Oakland

• Single station would provide <10 sec

Loma Prieta earthquake

Earthquake early warning

JapanTaiwan

Mexico

Turkey

Romania

Italy

Greece

India

United States

Operational systemsSystems under developmentaround the world


• existing stations

• existing telemetry

• delay: 5.5 sec


• existing stations

• telemetry upgrade

• delay: 2.0 sec

Northern California

Probabilistic warning times

WG02 Earthquake Probabilities

Scenario ShakeMap

WG02 Report• probabilities• ground shaking

ElarmS• warning times

Probabilistic warning times – infrastructure upgrade• 130 stations• 2 sec telemetry• 2 stations with pT

MMI 7: moderateMMI 9: heavy damage

San Francisco

Current applications

Utilities

Power (fire prevention), gas

Industry

Hazardous chemicals, chip manufacturers, eye surgeons

Construction

Site safety, (active control buildings)

Transportation

Airports, rail and subway, bridges

Response community

Fire departments, rescue teams, government

Personal protection

Schools, housing complexes (evacuation), hosing unit (preparation)

Japan, Taiwan, Mexico, Turkey and Romania

CISN Earthquake Early Warning UC BerkeleyCaltechSCEC/USC U.S. Geological Survey Real-time testing of...

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