Cisco anz 2014 mobile vni 16x9 pepper preso final

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Mobile Data Forecast Australia/ NZ Highlights 2013-2018

Robert Pepper, VP Global Technology Policy February 2014

2 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership

Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

Global Mobile Speed Data

Global Forecast Data


Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers

More Mobile Video


More Mobile Connections

2013

7.0 Billion

2018

10.2 Billion

Faster Mobile Speeds

2013

1.4 Mbps

2018

2.5 Mbps

More Mobile Users

2013

4.1 Billion

2018

4.9 Billion

2013

53% of Traffic

2018

69% of Traffic


Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase Nearly 11-Fold from 2013─2018

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exabyte

s p

er

Month

10.8 EB

1.5 EB

15.9 EB

7.0 EB

4.4 EB

2.6 EB


61% CAGR 2013–2018


Australia Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Australia Mobile Data Traffic will Increase Nearly 6-Fold from 2013─2018

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Peta

byte

s p

er

Month

80 PB

20 PB

112 PB

57 PB

40 PB

28 PB


41% CAGR 2013–2018


New Zealand Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line New Zealand Mobile Data Traffic will Increase Nearly 8-Fold from 2013─2018

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Pe

tab

yte

s p

er

Mo

nth

13 PB

2 PB

17 PB

9 PB

6 PB

4 PB


51% CAGR 2013–2018


Japan Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Japan Mobile Data Traffic will Increase Nearly 9-Fold from 2013─2018

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exa

byte

s p

er

Mo

nth

1.3 EB

205 PB

1.8 EB

874 PB

567 PB

350 PB


55% CAGR 2013–2018


US Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line US Mobile Data Traffic will Increase Nearly 8-Fold from 2013─2018

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exabyte

s p

er

Month

1.9 EB

0.4 EB

2.7 EB

1.3 EB

0.9 EB

0.6 EB


50% CAGR 2013–2018


Western Europe Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line WE Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 7-Fold from 2013─2018

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exabyte

s p

er

Month

1.3 EB

0.3 EB

1.9 EB

0.9 EB

0.6 EB 0.4 EB


50% CAGR 2013–2018


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bill

ions o

f D

evic

es

Other Portable Devices (0.3%,0.3%) Tablets (1.3%,5.0%)

Laptops (2.1%,2.6%) M2M (4.9%,19.7%)

Smartphones (24.9%,38.5%) Non-Smartphones (66.4%,33.9%)

Global Mobile Device Growth by Type


* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share

8% CAGR 2013–2018


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Millio

ns o

f D

evic

es


Laptops (14.6%,9.2%) M2M (13.0%,42.1%)


Australia Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2018, Smartphones and M2M Devices Dominate



10% CAGR 2013–2018


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Millio

ns o

f D

evic

es


Laptops (2.7%,2.4%) M2M (19.8%,49.0%)


New Zealand Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2018, Smartphones and M2M account for 90% of devices



13% CAGR 2013–2018


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Millio

ns o

f D

evic

es


Laptops (2.8%,2.5%) M2M (9.1%,40.2%)


United States Mobile Device Growth by Type



12% CAGR 2013–2018


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Millio

ns o

f D

evic

es


Laptops (1.3%,0.7%) M2M (11.7%,41.9%)


Japan Mobile Device Growth by Type



12% CAGR 2013–2018


Average Traffic Per Mobile Device Type

Non-Smartphone 10.8 45

M2M 61 451

Wearable 78 345

Smartphone 529 2,672

Tablet 1,374 5,609

Laptop 2,455 5,095


2013 MBs per Month

2018 MBs per Month

Note: In 2013, 4G Smartphones generated 2 GBs/month and 4G Tablets generated 2.4 GBs/month


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bill

ion

s o

f D

evic

es o

r C

on

nectio

ns

4G 3G 2G

Global Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

59%

68%

29%

3%

26%

15%


48%

44%

8%


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ion

s o

f D

evic

es o

r C

on

ne

ctio

ns

4G 3G 2G

Australia Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Shares

51%

68%

8%

23%

44%

4%



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ion

s o

f D

evic

es o

r C

on

ne

ctio

ns

4G 3G 2G

New Zealand Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

58%

58%

6%

37% 22%

19%



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ion

s o

f D

evic

es o

r C

on

ne

ctio

ns

4G 3G 2G

United States Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

52%

62%

13%

25%

41%

7%


47%

45%

8%


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ion

s o

f D

evic

es o

r C

on

ne

ctio

ns

4G 3G 2G

Japan Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share—Japan Leads 4G Migration

56%

69%

7%

24%

39%

5%


Cisco Confidential 22 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ion

s o

f D

evic

es o

r C

on

ne

ctio

ns

4G 3G 2G

Western Europe Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

60%

66%

32%

2%

24%

16%


© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 23 Cisco Confidential 23 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.


4G connection in 2013 in Australia

generated 1.3 GB/mo, 4.5X higher

than 288 MB/mo for non-4G

(mostly 3G) connections. In New

Zealand, 4G connection generated

1.3 GB/mo, 4.5X higher than the

294 MB/mo for non-4G



0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exabyte

s p

er

Mon

th

2-2.5G

3-3.5G

4G

Australia Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G In Australia, 4G Will Be 83% of Mobile Traffic by 2018

58%

83%

17%

0.4%

42%

0%



0.000

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.010

0.012

0.014

0.016

0.018

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exabyte

s p

er

Mon

th

2-2.5G

3-3.5G

4G

New Zealand Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G In New Zealand, 4G Will Be 51% of Mobile Traffic by 2018

21%

51%

49%

7%

72%

0.3%



0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Peta

byte

s p

er

Mo

nth

Mobile File Sharing (4.6%)

Mobile M2M (14.8%)

Mobile Audio (11.3%)

Mobile Web/Data (3.7%)

Mobile Video (65.6%)

Australia Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Exceed 65 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2018


41% CAGR 2013–2018

Figures (n) refer to 2018 traffic share


0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Peta

byte

s p

er

Mo

nth

Mobile File Sharing (5.2%)

Mobile M2M (12.4%)

Mobile Audio (11.2%)

Mobile Web/Data (5.8%)

Mobile Video (65.4%)

New Zealand Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Exceed 65 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2018


51% CAGR 2013–2018

Figures (n) refer to 2018 traffic share


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exa

byte

s p

er

Mo

nth

Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices

Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices


Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload* 52% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2018 45% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2013

48%

52%

*Offload pertains to traffic from dual mode devices (i.e., supports cell & wi-fi; exc. laptops) over wi-fi/small cell networks


0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exa

byte

s p

er

Mo

nth




Australia Mobile Data Traffic Offload* 38% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2018 26% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2013

62%

38%



0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

0.030

0.035

0.040

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exa

byte

s p

er

Mo

nth




New Zealand Mobile Data Traffic Offload* 50% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2018 44% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2013

50%

50%



0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exa

byte

s p

er

Mo

nth




United States Mobile Data Traffic Offload* 64% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2018 57% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2013

36%

64%



0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Peta

byte

s p

er

Month

Mobile Data (67% CAGR)

Fixed/Wired (13% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-Fi - Mobile Offload (85% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-Fi - Wi-Fi Only (21% CAGR)

Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Wi-Fi From Mobile Offload Growing Fastest

43%

37%

10%

21% CAGR 2012–2017


10%


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Peta

byte

s p

er

Month





Australia IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Wi-Fi From Mobile Offload Growing Fastest

33%

49%

11%

15% CAGR 2012–2017


7%


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Peta

byte

s p

er

Month





New Zealand IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Wi-Fi From Mobile Offload Growing Fastest

32%

48%

10%

15% CAGR 2012–2017


10%


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Peta

byte

s p

er

Month





United States IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Wi-Fi From Mobile Offload Growing Fastest

51%

34%

6%

21% CAGR 2012–2017


10%


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2G 3G 4G

Mobile

and O

fflo

ad T

raffic

fro

m

Mo

bile

-Co

nn

ecte

d D

evic

es

Mobile Traffic

Offload Traffic

Australia Mobile Data Traffic and Offload Traffic, 2018

38% 38%

11%

89% 62% 62%



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2G 3G 4G

Mobile

and O

fflo

ad T

raffic

fro

m

Mo

bile

-Co

nn

ecte

d D

evic

es

Mobile Traffic

Offload Traffic

New Zealand Mobile Data and Offload Traffic, 2018

49% 50% 30%

70% 50% 51%



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jan-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13

Perc

enta

ge o

f Top 1

perc

ent

to

Tota

l M

B/m

o

Top 1 %

Top Mobile User Profiles: 2010–2013 Top 1% Generated10% in Sept 2013—early adopters becoming new normal

24%

16%

52%

10%



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Tbps

Average Hour Traffic

Busy Hour Traffic

Busy Hour Mobile Data Traffic Busy Hour Is 66% Higher Than Average Hour in 2013, 83% in 2018



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bill

ions o

f M

2M

Connections

3G

2G

4G

71%

41%

Global M2M Connection Growth Global M2M Connections will Grow 6-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, More Than Half of Global M2M Connections Will be on 3G

43% CAGR 2013–2018


28%

35%

51%

14%

50%

9%

2.0 B

1.6 B

1.1 B

0.8 B

0.5 B 0.3 B

* In 2013, 4G accounts for 0.43% of global mobile M2M connections.

In 2014 ,1.5% connections, in 2015 , 3% connections and in 2016 ,5.6% connections are 4G.

34%

64%

41%

56%

47%

48%


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Millio

ns o

f M

2M

Co

nn

ecti

on

s

3G

2G

4G

36%

13%

Australia M2M Connection Growth Australia M2M Connections will Grow Five-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, One-Fifth of M2M Connections Will be On 4G

39% CAGR 2013–2018


64%

10%

70%

20%

75%

4%

27 M

21 M

15 M

11 M

8 M 5 M

70%

28%

74%

22%

76%

17%

7% 13%


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Millio

ns o

f M

2M

Co

nn

ecti

on

s

3G 2G 4G

79%

45%

New Zealand M2M Connection Growth New Zealand M2M Connections will Grow Five-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, Just over 10% of M2M Connections Will be On 4G

35% CAGR 2013–2018


21%

38%

51%

11%

48%

1%

5.5 M

4.3 M

3.3 M

2.4 M

1.7 M

1.2 M 28%

72%

35%

63%

43%

54%

3% 6%


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Millio

ns o

f M

2M

Co

nn

ecti

on

s

3G

2G

4G

56%

20%

United States M2M Connection Growth US M2M Connections will Grow 8-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, Nearly a Third M2M Connections Will be On 4G

50% CAGR 2013–2018


42%

15%

51%

33%

57%

9%

271 M

207 M

149 M

100 M

63 M

35 M 51%

45%

57%

35%

59%

26%

15% 24%


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

% w

ith

Em

be

dd

ed

Ce

llula

r C

on

ne

ctivity

Mill

ion

s o

f C

on

ne

cte

d W

ea

rab

les

22 M

127 M

Global Connected Wearable Devices Global Connected Wearables will Grow 8-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, 13 Percent will Have Embedded Cellular Connectivity

177 M


52% CAGR 2013–2018

58 M

36 M

88 M


0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

% o

f S

mart

phone T

raffic

Month

ly T

raffic

(P

B)

34

2

Global Connected Wearable Devices Traffic Global Connected Wearables Traffic will Grow 36-Fold from 2013-2018

61

17

9 4


105% CAGR 2013–2018


Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; 2013–2018 Get more info—see Tools and Resources

www.cisco.com/go/vni

[email protected]

Thank you.

Cisco anz 2014 mobile vni 16x9 pepper preso final

Technology

Transcript of Cisco anz 2014 mobile vni 16x9 pepper preso final