CIS570 WS3 Project Planning Business Systems Joseph Lewis Aguirre.
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Transcript of CIS570 WS3 Project Planning Business Systems Joseph Lewis Aguirre.
CIS570WS3 Project Planning Business Systems
Joseph Lewis Aguirre
Project Planning - MGMTProject Planning - MGMT
Manager’s Role in Project Planning
•Project Champion
•Project Planning
Project Planning - PlanProject Planning - Plan
Components of Business Project Plan
•Feasibility Study
•Business Requirements Definition
•Detailed Requirements Definition
•Solution Design
•Systems Development and Implementation
Project Planning- SchedulingProject Planning- Scheduling
Project Scheduling
•Constraints
•Phased Milestones
•Resources
•Forward/Backwards Scheduling
Project Planning- Cost Project Planning- Cost
Cost Estimation
• HW/SW
•In House/Outsource
•Training/Maintenance
•Cost Estimation Models
Project Planning- Alternatives Project Planning- Alternatives
Feasibility of technology alternatives
• Internet
•Intranet
•Extranet
CIS570
Project ManagementProject Management Project ManagementProject Management
Joseph Lewis Aguirre
• Moore’s law predicts the doubling of computing power every 18–24 months
• Gilder’s law predicts the doubling of communications power every six months
Sample LawsSample Laws
• Transistor density doubles every 18 months 60% increase per year– Chip density transistors/die – Micro processor speeds
• Exponential growth:– The past does not matter– 10x here, 10x there … means REAL change
• PC costs decline faster than any other platform– Volume and learning curves– PCs are the building bricks of all future systems
128KB128KB
128MB128MB
200020008KB8KB
1MB1MB
8MB8MB
1GB1GB
19701970 19801980 19901990
1M1M 16M16Mbits: 1Kbits: 1K 4K4K 16K16K 64K64K 256K256K 4M4M 64M64M 256M256M
1 chip memory size1 chip memory size ( 2 MB to 32 MB)( 2 MB to 32 MB)
Moore’s LawsMoore’s Laws
• Amdahl’s law: one instruction per second requires one byte of memory and one bit per second of I/O
• Processor speed has evolved at 60%• Storage evolves at 60%• Wide Area Network speed evolves at 60%• Local Area Network speed evolved 26-60% • Grove’s Law: Plain Old Telephone Service
(POTS) thwarts speed, evolving at 14%!
Computer Components must evolve at the same time
Computer Components must evolve at the same time
• Demand: doubles as price declines by 20%
• Learning curves: 10-15% cost decline with 2X units
• Bill’s Law for the economics of PC software
• Nathan’s Laws of Software -- the virtuous circle
• Metcalfe’s Law of the “value of a network”
Economics based lawsEconomics based laws
• How many connections can it make?– 1 user: no utility
– 100,000 users: a few contacts
– 1 million users: many on Net
– 1 billion users: everyone on Net
• That is why the Internet is so “hot”– Exponential benefit
Metcalf’s Law of Network UtilityMetcalf’s Law of Network Utility
• Bill Joy’s law (Sun): don’t write software for <100,000 platforms @$10 million engineering expense, $1,000 price
• Bill Gate’s law:don’t write software for <1,000,000 platforms @$10M engineering expense, $100 price
• Examples: –UNIX versus Windows NT: $3,500 versus $500
–Oracle versus SQL-Server: $100,000 versus $6,000
PricePriceFixed_costFixed_cost
Marginal _costMarginal _cost==UnitsUnits
++
Software Economics – Bills’ LawsSoftware Economics – Bills’ Laws
Inno
vatio
n
Volum
e
Competition
Standards
Utility/value
The Virtuous Economic Cycle driving the Compute Element
The Virtuous Economic Cycle driving the Compute Element
1. Software is a gas. It expands to fill the container it is in
2. Software grows until it becomes limited by Moore’s Law
3. Software growth makes Moore’s Law possible
4. Software is only limited by human ambition and expectation
…GB: and our ability to cyberize I.e. encode
Nathan’s Laws of SoftwareNathan’s Laws of Software
Region/Region/IntranetIntranet
CampusCampusHome…Home… buildingsbuildings
BodyBody
WorldWorld
ContinentContinent
Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms
Cars… Cars… phys. nets phys. nets
Everything Cyberizable in CyberspaceEverything Cyberizable in Cyberspace
Net
wo
rkIn
terf
ace
Pla
tfo
rm
“The Computer”Mainframe
tube, core, drum, tape, batch O/S
direct > batch
Mini & Timesharing
SSI-MSI, disk, timeshare
O/S
terminals via commands
POTS
PC/WS
micro, floppy, disk, bit-map
display, mouse, dist’d O/S
WIMP
LAN
Web browser,telecomputer, tv computer
PC, scalable servers,
Web, HTML
Internet
EnablersEnablers
Capac
. (sv
c
& re
spon
se)
Applic
atio
n
inno
vatio
n
UserdemandInternet
(IP)ubiquityExcess capac.
-->>BW
Virtuous Cycle Driving BandwidthVirtuous Cycle Driving Bandwidth
BIG THREE MODELSBIG THREE MODELS
SCOPE
Conte
xt M
odel
Event Model
Information Model
Designview
Component view
Use caseview
Processview
Deployment view
End user - Functionality - Vocabulary
Programmers - Software management
Analysts/Testers - Behavior
System integrators - Performance - Scalability - Throughput
System engineering - System topology - Delivery and installation - Communication
Rational Rose ModelRational Rose Model
USE CASE DIAGRAMSUSE CASE DIAGRAMSDocuments user-system interactions required to perform tasks
Process CusatomerOrders
FinanceMarketing
Salesperson
Order Entry Clerk Warehouse
Shipping
Invoicing Clerk
USE CASE DIAGRAMSUSE CASE DIAGRAMS
FinanceMarketing
Salesperson
Order Entry ClerkWarehouse
Shipping
Invoicing Clerk
DetermineCredit Limits
DetermineOrder Pricing
ProduceInvoices
DefinePrices
Enter ShipDate and Qty
Print Ordersfor WarehouseEnter
Order
Enter PickDate and Qty
Business Process ModelingBusiness Process ModelingFor each icon ask:mission, tasks, problems, decisions, metrics, who else needs to be informed?
Customer
Invoicing Clerk
Warehouse
Order Entry ClerkSalesperson
Shipping
A/R Clerk
Sales Order ProcessingSales Order Processing
Context Model
What is ContextWhat is Context
• Context influences how we perceive information.
• Context enables us to manage the vast amount
of information that surrounds us.
• Context guides us through the information
surrounding us.
• Context allows to discriminate what is important
and what is not.
• Context helps us to adapt to our surroundings.
Context ModelContext Model
I'm going to have toI'm going to really have to, yes, manipulate onI'll leave B and C on full tiltnow I'm going to have to manipulate one of theseif I want to cut downif I'm going to go over it4 minutes and I've used 6I've got A oxidising
Not much meaning without context?
Context ModelContext Model
Cognitive Demand
Context Size
Small Large
High
Low Within ContextBetween Context
Total Cognitive Demand
Possible relationship between context size and cognitive demand
TRUISMSTRUISMS
It is not the plan that matters, It’s the planning. -General Dwight D. Eisenhower
Graphical Diagrams do not constitute a specification….nothing replaces clear, concise text. - David A. Ruble
At a recent study, I commented at one point in our deliberations that we had spent more time on wordsmithing than we had on considering the substance of our report. -- Robert W. Lucky, VP for Applied Research at Telecordia. NJ
It seems to me language by its very nature is imprecise. I think of each word as inhabiting a fuzzy ball of uncertain semantic meaning…. – Robert W. Lucky
Context ModelContext Model
ProcessingProcessing
ControlControl
OutputOutputInputInput
System
External AgentExternal Agent
External AgentExternal Agent
Stimulus Response
• Understand the flows of data around the system
• Define processes that transform or manipulate data
• Identify the sources and recipients of data outside the system
• Show where data is held in the system
• Aid communication between user and analyst
• Form the basis of function definition and event identification
Data Flow Modeling Data Flow Modeling
Typically three versions of the DFM are produced:
• Current physical DFM
• Logical DFM
• Required system DFM
Data Flow Modeling Data Flow Modeling
The data flow model consists of:
• Data flow diagrams (DFD)
• Elementary process descriptions (EPD)
• External entity descriptions
• I/O descriptions
Data Flow Modeling Data Flow Modeling
DATA FLOW DIAGRAMSDATA FLOW DIAGRAMS
Given well specified processes and the information required to support those process, Data Flow Diagrams (DFD) are use to represent the data acquisition, transformation, storage and delivery process.
External Entities: People or systems
Data Flows: Data content acquired from an external entity.
Processes: Transform data according to business rules – strictly computer implemented processes
Business rules and processing logic must be documented for each process.
Context DiagramContext Diagram
A Representation of the Process Model
DFD – CONTEXT DIAGRAMDFD – CONTEXT DIAGRAM
Data source/sink, Data source/sink, external entityexternal entity
Data/Process – Data/Process – strong action verb, strong action verb, followed by objectfollowed by object
Data StoreData Store
DFD NotationDFD Notation
Law of transformation – a process transforms the data in some way
Law of conservation – a process’ output must be derivable from its input, and should be given enough information to do its job
Process: Strong action verb followed by object to which action applies - VO
External agent – named using noun
CONTEXT DIAGRAM - PAYROLL CONTEXT DIAGRAM - PAYROLL
Employee
PayrollManager
Process Payroll.Timecards
Pay Checks
W2 Forms
Payroll Reports
Tax Tables andParameters
Employee FixedData
Customer Accounts
Invoice
OrderInvoiceProcess
Order
Process
Entity
Data Flow
Outputs expressed in computer Outputs expressed in computer programming languageprogramming language
Data Flow DiagramData Flow Diagram
Process Modeling Process Modeling
Employee
PayrollManager
Process Payroll.*Timecards
Pay Checks
W2 Forms
Payroll Reports
Tax Tables andParameters
Employee FixedData
IF YtdGrossPay + CurrentGrossPay <= MaxFICAWagesIF YtdGrossPay + CurrentGrossPay <= MaxFICAWages
THENTHEN
ficaTax = CurrentGrossPay * FICATaxRateficaTax = CurrentGrossPay * FICATaxRate
ELSEELSE
IF YtdGrossPay <= MaxFICAWagesIF YtdGrossPay <= MaxFICAWages
THENTHEN
ficaTax = (MaxFICAWages - YtdGrossPay) * ficaTax = (MaxFICAWages - YtdGrossPay) * FICATaxRateFICATaxRate
ELSEELSE
ficaTax = 0ficaTax = 0
END IFEND IF
END IFEND IF
A Process used to calculate FICA withholding taxes processing logic:A Process used to calculate FICA withholding taxes processing logic:
• Catalog describing the information and data used in the system
• Need entries for – Processes (name, number, performed by, trigguer, volume, logic)
– Data Flows (name, description, frequency, structure)
– Data Stores (name, description, key elements, sequence, media, volume, organization, structure)
DATA DICTIONARYDATA DICTIONARY
DATA DICTIONARY – DATA STOREDATA DICTIONARY – DATA STORE
Data Dictionary Sample Entry: Data Store
File or Database Name: Accounting
Aliases: Project Accounting
Brief Description : Used to track projects and staffing levels
Composition: Project Nuber + Project Description + Staff Count + Employee Name + Release Date
Organization : Sequential by Project Number
NOTES :
Event Model
Event Model BenefitsEvent Model Benefits
Compared to hierarchical process model used to document requirements for monolithic process-driven programs, event model is more flexible
Event ModelEvent Model
ProcessingProcessing
ControlControl
Environment
System
Components, Relationships, Boundaries, Interfaces, Constraints
Stimulus Response
EventEvent EffectEffect
Event Model DeliverablesEvent Model Deliverables
Event List
Event Dictionary
Event Matrices
Event ListsEvent Lists
Customer returns merchandise
Customer requests refund
Customer places order
Engineering requests bug list
S-V-O
EVENT DICTIONARY – FICA EVENT DICTIONARY – FICA
Event ID: 099
Event Name: Calculate FICA Withholding Taxes
Description : Simple tax withholding calculation using FICA Tax Rates
Stimulus: Employee ID, Pay Period, Current gross pay and Year to Date Gross Pay
Alias: None
EVENT DICTIONARY - FICA (cont)EVENT DICTIONARY - FICA (cont)
Activity : Create an instance of FICA Withholding using employee ID, and Pay period.
IF YtdGrossPay + CurrentGrossPay <= MaxFICAWagesIF YtdGrossPay + CurrentGrossPay <= MaxFICAWagesTHENTHEN
ficaTax = CurrentGrossPay * FICATaxRateficaTax = CurrentGrossPay * FICATaxRate
ELSEELSEIF YtdGrossPay <= MaxFICAWagesIF YtdGrossPay <= MaxFICAWages
THENTHENficaTax = (MaxFICAWages - YtdGrossPay) * FICATaxRateficaTax = (MaxFICAWages - YtdGrossPay) * FICATaxRate
ELSEELSEficaTax = 0ficaTax = 0
END IFEND IF
END IF END IF Statistics?
EVENT DICTIONARY- FICA (cont)EVENT DICTIONARY- FICA (cont)
Response : Withholding tax
Effect : Can be printed and given to employee
EVENT DICTIONARY EVENT DICTIONARY
Event ID: 099
Event Name: Warehouse ships customer order
Description : When warehouse ships product, the trucking company is identified and quantity shipped for each item is updated on the customer order. If the total quantity shipped equals total quantity ordered, then the order item is closed out. If all items of the order have been filled, then the order is closed out. A BOL is produced by the system to accompany the shipment
Stimulus: Employee ID, Pay Period
Alias: None
Event Model – Event ListEvent Model – Event List
Customer Places Order
Customer Cancels Order
Warehouse ships order
Accounting Invoices Order
Customer Pays Invoice
Event Entity MatrixEvent Entity Matrix
Customer Places Order
Credit Approves Order
Warehouse ships order
Accounting Invoices Order
Marketing Sends Literature
Customer
OrderOrder I
tem
Plant O
rder
CRU
U
R
R
R
C
UR
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
C NA
NA
RU
R
NA
Cross CheckCross Check
•Cross Check Event Model with Information Model for missing entities, attributes, relationships
•If you have it, use it, else why have it
•Exceptions, such as non-events?
Event Organization – Event ChainEvent Organization – Event ChainSort by Time – event chain
1. Customer Places order
2. Sales manager approves
3. Production schedules order
4. Factory produces order
5. Factory ships order
6. Time to issue statement
7. Customer pays balance
Syntax, exception management?
Event Organization – Event SubjectEvent Organization – Event SubjectSort By Subject:
• Customer places order
• Customer pays deposit on order
• Customer cancels order
• Customer picks up order
• Customer does not pick up order
• Customer pays balanced due
• Customer does not pay balance
Syntax, exception management?
Customer Events Factory Events
•Factory schedules order
•Factory produces order
•Factory ships order
•Factory closes shop
Event Organization – Event ObjectEvent Organization – Event ObjectSort by Object:
• Customer places order
• Sales Manager approves order
• Customer cancels order
• Customer picks up order
• Customer does not pick up order
• Production schedules order
• Warehouse fills order
Syntax, exception management?
Order Events Price List Events
•Marketing established PL
•Sales manager requests PL
•Sales manager resquests sales report
Event HierarchyEvent Hierarchy
Design
Dialogue
Conceptual
Characteristics
Actual navigsation structure
Characteristics
Most appropriate for planning phase
Business
Next level of resolution
Business Requirements sans U/I Description of
HCI as a function of user, technology, etc.
Event HierarchyEvent Hierarchy
Customer Places order
Customer places preliminary order
Sales Manager confirms order
Production schedules order for shipment..
Sales rep enters order header
Sales rep enters request ship date
Sales Mgr requests sales report
Sales Mgr confirms order
Production control agent requests order schedule
Sales rep clicks new order…
Sales rep clicks requested ship date…
Sales Mgr clicks find unconfirmed orders…
Sales Mgr clicks find, enter order, click save….
Agent clicks find
Conceptual
Business
Dialogue
Design
Information Model
Information ModelInformation Model
Static Map of data required to carry out policy of each event
• Entity: Definition (Reminder)
• The Importance of Keys
• The Entity Hierarchy
• Types of Keys: – A Simple Key, A Compound Key, A Hierarchic
(or Composite) Key, A Foreign Key,
• Navigation: Relationships and Keys
• Exercise
OverviewOverview
• person, place, object, event, or concept
• entity type (entity class)
• entity instance
EntitiesEntities
• property or characteristic of an entity
• candidate key--unique identifier
• primary key--unique ID selected
• multivalued attributes--have many values per instance– hobbies, dependents, skills, languages
AttributesAttributes
• association between instances of one or more entities
• degree of relationship– unary – binary– ternary--simultaneous relationship among 3
entities
RelationshipsRelationships
KeysKeys
• Candidate: Attribute that uniquely identifies each instance of an entity type
• Primary: Candidate key selected as identifier for entity type
Process ModelProcess Model Process ModelProcess Model
In general there are two types of models for the information systems environment—data models and process models.
IS ModelsIS Models
Typically consists of the following (in whole or in part):
• Functional decomposition• Context-level zero diagram• Data flow diagram• Structure chart• State transition diagram• HIPO chart• Pseudocode
Process ModelProcess Model
Because the process model is requirements-based, it is not suitable for the data warehouse.
The process model assumes that a set of known processing requirements exists, before the details of the design are established.
But those assumptions do not hold for the data warehouse.
Many development tools, such as CASE tools, have the same orientation and as such are not applicable to the data warehouse environment.
Process ModelProcess Model
SYSTEM: Customer Accounts
PROCESS NAME: Validate Customer
INPUT: Customer ID
PROCESS: Read customer record to see if customer number is valid
OUTPUT: True or False Condition
HIPO CHARTSHIPO CHARTS
Hierarchy input process output chart consist of 2 parts•A chart showing the hierarchy of processes similar to a structure chart •For each process in part, create a diagram which details the name of the process, inputs, what the inputs are used for, the outputs
Begin If WhileRepeat until
Casewhere
Then
Else otherwise
end endif endwhile endrepeat endcase
Detailed textual description of an algorithm using keywords.
PseudocodePseudocode
PseudocodePseudocode
while not at end of listcompare adjacent elements
if second is greater than firstswitch them
get next two elementsif elements were switchedrepeat for entire list
The data model is applicable to both the existing systems environment and the data warehouse environment.
Data ModelData Model
Data Stability AnalysisData Stability Analysis
• Part Id
• Description
• Substitute
• QOH
• Order Unit
• Safety Stock
• Primary supplier
• Expediter
• Shipping manifest
• Lead time
• Accetable reject rate
• Last order date
• Last order amount
• Las delivery to
• Order amount
• Part Id
• Description
• Substitute
• QOH
• Order Unit
• Safety Stock
• Primary supplier
• Expediter
• Shipping manifest
• Lead time
• Accetable reject rate
• Last order date
• Last order amount
• Las delivery to
• Order amount
• Part-id
• Description
• Order unit
• Lead time
• Acceptable reject rate
• Shipping manifest
• Part-id
• Primary substitute
• Safety stock
• Primary supplier
• Expediter
• Part-id
• QOH
• Last order date
• Last order amount
• Last delivery to
• Order amount
Parts Table Seldom Changes
Sometimes Changes
Frequently Changes
Logical Design• Information Requirements• Logical Structure Design• Data Model and Implementation Constraints
Physical Design• Physical Storage Class Alternatives• Physical Tuning
Database DesignDatabase Design
Data Independence• Program design to be independent from the
logical data structure• Build into the program a monitoring mechanism
that will collect statistics on how the logical data structure is being utilized by the application
Program DesignProgram Design
All relationships are based absolutely on the hierarchical concept of MASTER(PARENT) &DETAIL (CHILD)
DETAILDETAIL DETAIL(MASTER)
DETAIL(MASTER)
DETAILDETAIL DETAILDETAIL
DETAILDETAIL DETAILDETAIL DETAILDETAIL
MASTERMASTER
Entity HierarchyEntity Hierarchy
ER DiagramER Diagram
Customer Customer Rep
Is represented by
Represents
Order
PlacedWas Placed By
EmployeeWas taken by
Took
Order Item
Contains
Was ordered on
Product
Request delivery of
Was ordered on
Product Price
Retails for
Is Price for
ER Diagram NotationER Diagram Notation
Has been ownedOwned
Ow
ned
Has been ow
ned
from McFadden & Hoffer: Modern Database Management: 4th Edition, Benjamin/Cummings, 1994
Context Model Furniture Mfg.Context Model Furniture Mfg.
Customer
InvoiceOrder
ProductProduct
WorkOrder
RawMaterial
VendorVendor
PlacesPlacesBillsBills
FulfillsFulfills
RequestsRequests ShipsShips
UsesUses BuildsBuilds
SuppliesSupplies
ER Model – Furniture Mfg.ER Model – Furniture Mfg.
In general there are two types of models for the information systems environment—data models and process models.
Information System ModelsInformation System Models
Process-oriented information• Identifies which data are used by each process
and how frequently the process is performed
• Data Models
Addresses the organization’s conceptual view of the database: entities, attributes, and relationships
Information RequirementsInformation Requirements
Project Management Project Management in the Technology Environment in the Technology Environment
Joseph Lewis Aguirre
PROJECT MANAGEMENTPROJECT MANAGEMENT
PROJECT SCOPE MANAGEMENTPROJECT SCOPE MANAGEMENT
Planning Models
PROJECT SCOPE MANAGEMENTPROJECT SCOPE MANAGEMENT
1) Initiation
2) Scope planning
3) Definition
4) Verification
5) Change control
PROJECT SCOPE MANAGEMENTPROJECT SCOPE MANAGEMENT
1)Net Present Value
2)Return On Investment
3)Payback Analysis
SELECTION METHODS
HardwareHardware• Performance• Cost• Reliability• Compatibility• Technology• Connectivity• Scalability• Support• Software
Software Software • Quality• Flexibility• Security• Connectivity• Language• Documentation• Hardware• Efficiency
Technology Evaluation FactorsTechnology Evaluation Factors
WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE?WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE?
PM EXPERTISEPM EXPERTISE
WHY DO PMs FAIL?WHY DO PMs FAIL?
SUCCESSFUL PMsSUCCESSFUL PMs
IT PROJECT FAILURE RATEIT PROJECT FAILURE RATE
Project Management Core SkillsProject Management Core Skills
Leadership? Creativity?
• Initiate
• Plan
• Execute
• Control
• Close
• Scope Management
• Time Management
• Cost Management
• Quality Management
• Human Resources
• Communications
• Risk Management
• Procurement
CORE SKILLS PROCESS
PROJECT MANAGEMENT INTEGRATION
PROJECT MANAGEMENT INTEGRATION
1) SCOPE
2) TIME
3) COST
4) QUALITY
5) HR
6) COMM
7) RISK
8) PROCURE
Perf
orm
ance
Cost=f(P,T,S)
SCOPE
Time
Cost
3C - SCOPE, TIME, COST3C - SCOPE, TIME, COST
Perfo
rman
ce
SCOPE
Time
Cost
Change ManagementChange Management
Define Change StrategyDefine Change Strategy
Develop LeadershipDevelop Leadership
Build CommitmentBuild Commitment
Deliver Business BenefitsDeliver Business Benefits
Create Change VisionCreate Change Vision
Manage PerformanceManage Performance
Develop CultureDevelop Culture
Design OrganizationDesign Organization
Set Up
Set upSet up
AnalysisAnalysis
DefinitionDefinition
TransitionTransition
PROJECT SCOPE MANAGEMENTPROJECT SCOPE MANAGEMENTNET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) ->today's value of a series of future payments & income
AN. INT. RATE --> 10%
PROJ ECT 1 YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 YEAR 5 TOTALREVENUES $0 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $14,000COSTS $5,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $9,000CASH FLOW ($5,000) $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000NPV $2,316
Formula =npv(b3,b8:f8)
PROJ ECT 2 YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 YEAR 5 TOTALREVENUES $1,000 $2,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $15,000COSTS $2,000 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000 $10,000CASH FLOW ($1,000) $0 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000 $5,000NPV $3,201
Formula =npv(b3,b15:f15)
RECOMMEND PROJ ECT 2 BECAUSE IT HAS THE HIGHER NPV.
IF STATEMENT -->=IF(B9>B16,A5,A12)RESULT --> PROJ ECT 2
Notice that cash flow totals are the same, but NPVs are different.
PROJECT SCOPE MANAGEMENTPROJECT SCOPE MANAGEMENT
PAYBACK ANALYSISDISCOUNT RATE 10% Years
1 2 3 4 5TOTALCOSTS ($5,000) ($1,000) ($1,000) ($1,000) ($1,000) -9,000DISCOUNT FACTOR 0.91 0.83 0.75 0.68 0.62DISCOUNTED COSTS -4,545 -826 -751 -683 -621 -7,427
REVENUE $0 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 14,000DISCOUNT FACTOR 0.91 0.83 0.75 0.68 0.62DISCOUNTED REVENUE 0 1,653 2,254 2,732 3,105 9,743
DISCOUNTED REVENUE + COSTS -4,545 826 1,503 2,049 2,484 2,316 NPVCUMULATIVE REVENUE + COSTS -4,545 -3,719 -2,216 -167 2,316 4,633
ROI 31% Payback in this year
WEIGHTED SCORING MODELWEIGHTED SCORING MODELCriteria Weight Project 1 Project 2 Project 3 Project 4Supports key business objectives 25% 90 90 50 20Has strong internal sponsor 15% 70 90 50 20Has strong customer support 15% 50 90 50 20Realistic level of technology 10% 25 90 50 70Can be implemented in one year or less 5% 20 20 50 90Provides positive NPV 20% 50 70 50 50Has low risk in meeting scope, time, and cost goals10% 20 50 50 90 Weighted Project Scores 100% 56 78.5 50 41.5
Weighted Score by Project
0 20 40 60 80 100
Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Project 4
Goal Measure Target InitiativeFinancialGoal Measure Target Initiative
FinancialGoal Measure Target InitiativeFinancial
Goal Measure Target InitiativeCustomerGoal Measure Target Initiative
CustomerGoal Measure Target InitiativeCustomer VisionVision
MissionMissionStrategyStrategy
VisionVisionMissionMissionStrategyStrategy
Goal Measure Target InitiativeInternal Business ProcessGoal Measure Target Initiative
Internal Business ProcessGoal Measure Target InitiativeInternal Business Process
Goal Measure Target InitiativeLearning and GrowthGoal Measure Target Initiative
Learning and GrowthGoal Measure Target InitiativeLearning and Growth
Business UnitsSupport Units
Team/Individual
Cascading ScorecardsCascading Scorecards
Quickly Developing a Balanced Scorecard (Arcplan Info. Services, Germany)
Broadenrevenue mix
Increase customersatisfaction
Develop newproducts
Developstrategic skills
Revenue mix
Customerretention
% Revenue fromnew products
Skill coverage
10% Product A40% Product B50% Product C
95%
1999 -- 15% 2000 -- 50% 2001 -- 60%
90%
• Sales Promotions• New Channel Marketing
• Frequent Buyers’ Club
• R & D Program• Customer Mailing
• Custom Training• Knowledge Library
Objective Measure Target Initiatives
Le
arn
ing
&
Gro
wth
Inte
rna
lC
ust
om
er
Fin
an
cia
l
Performanceexpectation
Key action programs required to achieve
objectivesHow success will be measured and
tracked
What strategy must be achieved
and what is critical to its success
Linking MetricsLinking Metrics
RESPONSIBILITY ASSIGNMENT MATRIX (RAM
RESPONSIBILITY ASSIGNMENT MATRIX (RAM
RAM integrates the Organization Breakdown Structure (OBS) with the Contract Work Breakdown Structure (CWBS)
TIME MANAGEMENT - CPMTIME MANAGEMENT - CPM
Critical Path – shortest path in which the project can be completed
Activity 1 Activity 3
Activity 4
Activity 2 Activity 5
Activity 7
Activity 6
Activity 8
1 Day
3 Day
2 Day4 Day
6 Day
3 Day
6 Day
4 Day
2 Day
5 Day
16 Days
COST ANALSYSCOST ANALSYS
COST ANALYSIS- EVACOST ANALYSIS- EVA
COST ANALYSIS- EVACOST ANALYSIS- EVA
COST ANALYSIS- RESOURCE LOADING
COST ANALYSIS- RESOURCE LOADING
COST ANALYSIS- EACCOST ANALYSIS- EAC
• EVA - a way to measure a project’s progress, forecast its completion date and final cost, and provide schedule and budget variances along the way.
• Based on just 3 sets of data, it can provide consistent, numerical indicators with which you can evaluate and compare projects.
EVA - INTRODUCTIONEVA - INTRODUCTION
• Budgeted Cost of Work Performed.
• Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled.
• Actual Cost of Work Performed.
FUNDAMENTAL METRICSFUNDAMENTAL METRICS
• Schedule Variance (SV)
• Schedule Performance Index (SPI)
• Cost Variance (CV)
• Cost Performance Index (CPI)
DERIVED METRICSDERIVED METRICS
• BAC - Budget At Completion - Total Original Budgeted Cost
- Same as BCWS at completion
• EAC - Estimate At Completion– Cumulative Actuals + Estimate-To-Complete
• VAC - Variance At Completion– Forecast of final cost variance
MORE ACRONYMSMORE ACRONYMS
• SV = BCWP - BCWS- Negative means Behind Schedule
• SPI = BCWP / BCWS- Less than 1.00 means Behind Schedule
• CV = BCWP - ACWP- Negative means Over Budget
• CPI = BCWP / ACWP- Less than 1.00 means Over Budget
• EAC = BAC / CPI
DOING THE MATHDOING THE MATH
• Make 1,000 cups over 50 days
• Steady rate of 20 cups per day
• Budgeted cost per cup is $0.50
• Total project budget is $500
IF LEMONS-> LEMONADEIF LEMONS-> LEMONADE
• At end of day 10:
• 150 cups have been made
• Total actual cost is $90 (ACWP)
STATUS EOD 10STATUS EOD 10
• BCWS = $100- 10 days x 20 cups per day x .50/cup budget
• BCWP = $75 (Earned Value)- 150 cups x .50/cup budget
• SV = BCWP - BCWS = -$25• SPI = BCWP / BCWS = 0.75• CV = BCWP - ACWP = $75 - $90 = -$15• CPI = BCWP / ACWP = 0.833
PROJECT STATUSPROJECT STATUS
• Estimate At Completion = Cumulative Actuals + Estimate-To-Complete
EAC = BAC / CPI = $500 / 0.833 = $600
• Variance At Completion = Forecast of final cost variance
VAC = BAC - EAC = $500 - $600 = $100 (unfavorable)
• Schedule at Completion =50 / SPI = 50 / 0.75 = 66.67 days
PROJECT FORECASTPROJECT FORECAST
TIME MANAGEMENT TIME MANAGEMENT
TMGT 510
PROJECT TIME MANAGEMENT PROJECT TIME MANAGEMENT
1) GANTT
2) Precedence Diagrams
3) PERT Charts
Project schedules
TIME MANAGEMENT - CPMTIME MANAGEMENT - CPM
Critical Path – shortest path in which the project can be completed
Activity 1 Activity 3
Activity 4
Activity 2 Activity 5
Activity 7
Activity 6
Activity 8
1 Day
3 Day
2 Day4 Day
6 Day
3 Day
6 Day
4 Day
2 Day
5 Day
16 Days
TIME MANAGEMENT - PERTTIME MANAGEMENT - PERTPROGRAM EVALUATION & REVIEW (problems eventually resolve themselves)
- A statistical technique applied to a network schedule.
Activity 1 Activity 3
Activity 4
Activity 2 Activity 5
Activity 7
Activity 6
Activity 8
1 Day
3 Day
2 Day4 Day
6 Day
3 Day
6 Day
4 Day
2 Day
5 Day
Average Time = (Best Case + (4 x Expected Case) + Worst Case) / 6
TMGT 510Work Shop 2
Joseph Lewis Aguirre
COST CONTROL
SCOPE & TIME MANAGEMENTSCOPE & TIME MANAGEMENT
Perfo
rman
ce
Perfo
rman
ce
Cost=f(P,T,S)
SCOPE
TIMETIME
Cost
Cost
"Cheshire-Puss," she began, rather timidly, "Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?"
"That depends a great deal on where you want to get to," said the cat.
"I don't much care where -," said Alice.
"Then it doesn't matter which way you go," said the cat.--Lewis Carroll
Alice in Wonderland
-
WHERE ARE WE GOING?WHERE ARE WE GOING?
Are we on schedule?Are we on cost?What are the significant variances? Why do we have variances?Who is responsible?What is the trend to date?
When will we finish? What will it cost at the end? How can we control the trend?
Analyze past performance………….…to help control the future
PAST PRESENT FUTURE
PROJECT ROAD MAPPROJECT ROAD MAP
PROJECT COST CONTROLPROJECT COST CONTROL
03/04/2001
PROJECT COST CONTROLPROJECT COST CONTROL
11/28/2001
COST CONTROLCOST CONTROL
ROM
RAM
CPU
COST CONTROLCOST CONTROL
Tangible Cost/Benefit
Intangible Cost/Benefit
Direct Costs
Indirect Cost
Sunk Cost
Learning Curve Theory
Reserves
Cost avoidance window of opportunity
PROJECT COST MANAGEMENTPROJECT COST MANAGEMENT
15%
TIME
PROJECT COST MANAGEMENTPROJECT COST MANAGEMENT
PROJECT COST MANAGEMENTPROJECT COST MANAGEMENT
Cost estimateCost estimate
ROMROMBudgetaryBudgetaryDefinitiveDefinitive
AnalogousAnalogous Top/DownTop/Down ParametricParametric
http://www.jsc.nasa.gov/bu2/COCOMO.html
http://sunset.usc.edu/research/COCOMOII/index.html
PROJECT COST CONTROLPROJECT COST CONTROL
PROJECT COST MANAGEMENTPROJECT COST MANAGEMENT
WBSWBS
SCHEDULESCHEDULE
COST COST ESTIMATESESTIMATES
BUDGETBUDGET
1. SW Development
• Code
• Test
• Document
1. SW Development
• Code: $10X
• Test: $1x
• Document: $0.5x
$xxx.xxx.xxx
PROJECT COST CONTROLPROJECT COST CONTROL
Planned cost
Cost to Date
TIME
CO
ST
Good News?
PROJECT COST CONTROLPROJECT COST CONTROL
TASK•Conceptual Design
•Program Specification
•Coding
•Documentation
•User Manual Production
•Debugging
STATUS• Complete
• Complete
• In Process
• In Process
• Not Yet Started
• Not Yet Started
50% Complete?
Apples and Oranges
PROJECT COST CONTROLPROJECT COST CONTROL
TASK•Conceptual Design
•Program Specification
•Coding
•Documentation
•User Manual Production
•Debugging
STATUS• Complete
• Complete
• In Process
• In Process
• Not Yet Started
• Not Yet Started
50% Complete?
PROJECT COST CONTROLPROJECT COST CONTROL
TASK•Conceptual Design
•Program Specification
•Coding
•Documentation
•User Manual Production
•Debugging
BUDGET• 200 hours
• 300 hours
• 600 hours
• 100 hours
• 400 hours
• 500 hours
31% Complete: 660/2100
BUDGET• 200 earned
• 300 earned
• 150 earned
• 10 earned
• NYS
• NYS
TOTAL 2,100 hours 660 earned
PROJECT COST CONTROLPROJECT COST CONTROL
EVA = f(% Complete)
Uniform Unit of Measure
CONSTRUCTION
Concrete (cubic yards)
Forms (sq ft)
Pipe (ft)
Rebar (tons)
Conduit (ft)
MOVIE INDUSTRY
Screenplay writing
Set Production
Filming
Editing
Marketing
PROJECT COST CONTROLPROJECT COST CONTROL
Physical Work:
Task: Pour 1000 cubic yards of concrete
Progress: 300 done to date
% complete 30%
Task: Create Design drawing:
• 10% when preliminary study is complete
• 20% When draft is complete
• 40% First draft printed
• 50% First draft review
• 60% Second draft is complete
• 75% Customer review
• 90% Final draft is complete
• 100% Released for construction
50-50% Rule: 50% after its start date, 100% Finish
BCWS
ACWP
EVA (BCWP)
TIME
Data Date
To Date Cost Variance
To Date Schedule Variance
BCWS: Budgeted Cost of Work ScheduledACWP: Actual Cost of Work PerformedEVA (BCWP): Budgeted Cost of Work Performed
PROJECT COST CONTROLPROJECT COST CONTROL
BAC (Budget at Completion)
EAC (Estimate at Completion)
FCST: Forecast of Remaining Work
PROJECT COST CONTROLPROJECT COST CONTROL
Earned Value Analysis (EVA)
Physical Progress
(consistent)
EVA = f(% Complete)
Uniform Unit of Measure
EARNED VALUE METHODOLOGY
QUALITY MANAGEMENT QUALITY MANAGEMENT
TMGT 510
QUALITY
QUALITY CONTROL
QUALITY ASSURANCE
PROJECT QUALITY MANAGEMENTPROJECT QUALITY MANAGEMENT
PROJECT QUALITY MANAGEMENTPROJECT QUALITY MANAGEMENT
Sigma Defective Units per Billion
3 2,700,000
6 2
PROJECT QUALITY MANAGEMENTPROJECT QUALITY MANAGEMENT
Pareto Diagram
FIELD PERFORMANCE MODELSFIELD PERFORMANCE MODELS
TIME
Infa
nt M
orta
lity
SOFTWARE QUALITY CONTROLSOFTWARE QUALITY CONTROL
Test
MaintenanceCode
DesignAnalysis
Spoilage
Software Quality: Absence of spoilage
SOFTWARE QUALITY CONTROLSOFTWARE QUALITY CONTROL
Detection Rate
Removal Rate
Responsibility
WORST BESTTom DeMarco
Capability Maturity ModelCapability Maturity Model
• Capability Maturity Models® (CMMs®):- 1. Initial: Few processes are defined, success a function of individual effort
- 2. Repeatable: Basic processes in place to repeat earlier success
- 3. Defined : Processes for engineering and management are documented.
- 4. Managed: Detailed metrics for software process and quality
- 5. Optimizing: Peak performance
Capability Maturity ModelCapability Maturity Model
• Project Management Maturity Model- 1. Ad-Hoc: Few processes are defined, success a function of individual effort
- 2 Abbreviated: Basic processes in place to repeat earlier success
- 3. Organized: Processes for engineering and management are documented.
- 4. Managed: Detailed metrics for software process and quality
- 5. Adaptive: Peak performance
Project Human Resources and Project Human Resources and Communication ManagementCommunication Management
TMGT 510
PROJECT MANAGEMENTPROJECT MANAGEMENT
Leadership!!!!
HR AND COMMUNICATIONHR AND COMMUNICATION
HR AND COMMUNICATIONHR AND COMMUNICATION
HR AND COMMUNICATIONHR AND COMMUNICATION
WBSWBS
SCHEDULESCHEDULE
COST COST ESTIMATESESTIMATES
BUDGETBUDGET
1. SW Development
• Code
• Test
• Document
1. SW Development
• Code: $10X
• Test: $1x
• Document: $0.5x
$xxx.xxx.xxx
Resource Loading
HR AND COMMUNICATIONHR AND COMMUNICATION
Values
GOALS
STRUCTURE
CLIMATE
ENVIRONMENT
MarketplaceOther Teams
CultureCompetition
Pressures
Clarity Commitment
Reward System
Reporting Relationships
Feedback System
Behavior Norm
Decision Making
Competition
Enthusiasm
Stress
Trust
Involvement
Flexibility
Collaboration Mission Philosophy
Accountability
HR AND COMMUNICATIONHR AND COMMUNICATION
MANAGING DIFFICULT PEOPLE
21. Bulls -- come out charging, attacking the other person, perhaps out of frustration
22. Snakes: Hides and attacks when least expected. Trying to maintain order
21. Cheetahs – Burst in sudden temper displays
22. Macaw Parrots - Talk and chatter, sometimes sense, sometimes none-sense
23. Ostriches - handle difficult situations in non-committal way
24. Cubs – humorous, friendly and cooperative. Do not reveal what they really think, leads them to make unrealistic commitments.
25. Hyenas – They lack faith on other people and wilt them with sarcasm and doubts.
26. Rhinoceroses – strong and knowledgeable whose “know-it-all” attitudes are overbearing.
27. Peacocks -- pretender they are experts, but aren’t.
28. Turkeys – cannot make a decision. Are nice, but hope situations resolve themselves.
29. Beavers – hardworking and proficient, but arouse other employees’ jealousy and suspicion.
HR AND COMMUNICATIONHR AND COMMUNICATIONIntent Need Category
Get it done right Control Ruler Get it done right Accuracy Analyzer Get Along Approval Relater Get Appreciated Attention Entertainer
Relater Entertainer
Analyzer Ruler
Passive Aggressive
Tas
k O
rien
ted
Peo
ple
Ori
ente
d
Window on the World of Difficult People
RISK MANAGEMENT RISK MANAGEMENT
TMGT 510
• User Involvement 19%• Exectuive Management Support 16%• Clear Requirements 15%• Proper Planning 11%• Realistic Expectations 10%• Smaller Project Milestones 9%• Competent Staff 8%• Ownership 6%• Clear Vision and Objectives 3%• Hardworking, Focus Staff 3%
PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENTPROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
• · Risk is inherent to every project. Risk is a fundamental ingredient of opportunity and is a part of every project. It is the possibility, not the certainty, of bearing a loss.
• • · Risk is neither intrinsically good nor bad. Risk is not
something to avoid, especially because it is inherent to every project. Every risk identified is a potential opportunity.
• Risk is not something to fear, but something to manage. Successful teams deal with risk by recognizing and minimizing
uncertainty and by proactively addressing each identified risk.
PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENTPROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
RISK CHARACTERISTICS
• Assess risks continuously throughout the project life cycle. • Ongoing risk management of a project introduces a degree of resilience
to change.• Use risk-based decision-making. Requires that all decisions be made
within the context of their risk. The team’s actions are prioritized in relationship to the status of the risk—the highest risk items should be dealt with first and incorporated into the project plan
• Establish some level of formality. Requires a process that is understood and used by the team. not structured, it will not be useful.
• Cover all key people and processes. The team must ensure that the key persons and processes are covered, or it is likely that significant risks will be missed.
• Treat risk identification as a positive. Team members must be willing to identify risk without fear of punishment or criticism.
PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENTPROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
RISK MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES
PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENTPROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
Risk Management Process
• Inclusive contribution. Risk identification is best accomplished as a group effort in order to fully explore the potential risks associated with the readiness effort. ·
• • Premortem. Encourages the project team and any other participants to use their intuition
and imagination by looking into the future and predicting what might make the project fail.• • Negative thinking. Applying logical but negative thinking to both the project management
strategy and the rationale for sponsorship seeks to identify oversights, alternatives, conflicts, and new possibilities.
• Interdependencies of risks. When developing a strategy to manage risk, the readiness team should examine the relationships and dependencies among risks. A strategy to reduce risk in one area can increase risk in another. For example, a decision to reduce the risk of a lengthy project by adding team members will increase the risk of poor team coordination and miscommunication.
• Iterative process. Because circumstances and information may change throughout the course of the project, it is wise to discuss risk mitigation plans and history, and identify new risks with the completion of each milestone.
PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENTPROJECT RISK MANAGEMENTIDENTIFICATION
• Economic and regulatory risks. May prevent the project from delivering the expected benefits
• Product, market, and competitive risks. Related to the current or future issues that may arise in the marketplace.
• Technological risks. Include not achieving project goals because of technological failure, inadequacy, or lack of readiness.
• Organizational risks. When not present, minimize the return on investment of a project. These missing factors might include: a clear statement of requirements, realistic expectations, stakeholder commitment (lack of vendor or user support), executive sponsorship, project management skills and experience, communication planning and execution, rewards and recognition alignment, cultural alignment, training and education, organizational structure alignment, etc.
PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENTPROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
RISK TYPES
• Leadership, Represents an organization’s intent or capability to create change.
• Culture, Represents the set of beliefs, behaviors, and assumptions that guide people’s day-to-day activities within the organization.
• Individuals, Represents the employees’ competence, capacity, and resilience for dealing successfully with the IT change;
• Business Process, Represents the organization’s ability to execute its mission in delivering products and services to its target market or audience.
• Solution Development Process, Represents the organization’s ability to develop an IT solution to address specific business requirements.
• Operational Process, Represents the organization’s capability of maximizing the operations of its IT plans.
• Hardware, Represents the most tangible product of a technology change.
• Software, the applications designed to provide capabilities at the core of the business objectives.
PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENTPROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
ORGANIZATIONAL READINESS RISKS
• Qualitative
• Quantitative
PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENTPROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
IDENTIFICATION
PROCUREMENT MANAGEMENT PROCUREMENT MANAGEMENT
TMGT 510
PROJECT PROCUREMENT MANAGEMENT
PROJECT PROCUREMENT MANAGEMENT
Buyer Risk
Seller Risk
Firm Fixed PriceFirm Fixed Price
Fixed Price + IncentiveFixed Price + Incentive
Cost + IncentiveCost + Incentive
Cost + Fixed FeeCost + Fixed Fee
Cost + % CostCost + % Cost