CIPD 12 March 2009
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CIPD 12 March 2009 David Hutcheson MBCI Glen Abbot Ltd.
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CIPD 12 March 2009. David Hutcheson MBCI Glen Abbot Ltd. Background: What is a Pandemic?. The definition and importance. Epidemic Serious outbreak in a single community population Pandemic Epidemic which spreads around the world affecting hundreds and thousands of people - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of CIPD 12 March 2009
CIPD
12 March 2009
David Hutcheson MBCIGlen Abbot Ltd.
Background: What is a Pandemic?
The definition and importance
• Epidemic• Serious outbreak in a single community
population
• Pandemic• Epidemic which spreads around the world
affecting hundreds and thousands of people
• Pandemic Flu is currently the number one risk on the UK Risk Register.
Spanish flu 1918-1920-50 million deaths worldwide (>WW1)200,000 in UK
Asian flu 1957-581 mill+ deaths worldwide
Hong Kong flu 19681 mill+ deaths worldwide
Normal inter-pandemic period 39-42yrsNow 41 yrs since last pandemic……
“Sudden … unpredictable … inevitable” WHO
How Does it Spread?EVOLUTION OF NEW INFLUENZA VIRUSEVOLUTION OF NEW INFLUENZA VIRUS
-- cross infection of human & aviancross infection of human & avianinfluenza in pigsinfluenza in pigs
-- leading to reassortment ofleading to reassortment ofgenes and new strainsgenes and new strains
Transmission ofTransmission ofavian flu by stoolavian flu by stool
New flu virusNew flu virus
Spread by Spread by aerosolaerosol
Transmission of humanTransmission of humanflu to pigs by aerosolflu to pigs by aerosol
Some Figures
Pandemics last 1-2 years
• Come in waves• Few months in between • Successive waves may be more
severe• Each wave lasts about 15 weeks
• Absence rates differ between areas (flu pockets)
Clinical Infection Rate
• The Clinical Infection Rate (CIR) is the ‘hit rate’ % of the population affected.
• This follows a standard pattern.
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00Staff Affected
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Week
25% Clinical Infection Rate
WHO Alert Phases
Inter-pandemic phase Low risk of human cases 1
New virus in animals,
no new human virusHigher risk of human cases 2
Pandemic alertNone or limited human
to human transmission3
New virus causes
human cases
Evidence of increased human
to human transmission4
New virus causes
human cases
Evidence of significant human
to human transmission5
PandemicEfficient and sustained human
to human transmission6
United Kingdom Alert Levels
When the international situation reaches WHO Phase 6 there will be 4 alert levels in the UK:
• UK alert level 1 No cases in the UK• UK alert level 2 Virus isolated in the UK• UK alert level 3 Outbreak (s) in the UK• UK alert level 4 Widespread activity across the
UK
The Myths!
• 50% of your staff will be off • We are going to catch Avian Flu• Tamiflu will save us• The annual flu jab will stop it• Doctors will prescribe antibiotics• All those migrating birds are the
problem• Don’t eat chicken!• It’s all a hype and won’t happen
So…a pandemic is the main threat to the UK
Why are HR Departments so disinterested??
There must be a reason!
• 95% of Corporate Comms departments agreed to be involved first time
• 60% of Operations Departments agreed first time
• Even 40% of Finance Departments agreed! BUT………..
• Only 15% of HR departments agreed to be involved first time
You are the most critical!
Pandemics will be an HR problem• People will be ill, not systems• You will be needed immediately as
people ask questions• You CANNOT make it up on the spot!• This is when you will prove you are
worth having!• But you don’t want to play……..
So prove me wrong!
Aberdeen Medical Ltd
• You are a manufacturing company who produce three medical products• Sutures (time critical)• Sterilised bone wax• Sterilised heart stents (high profit)
• 1000 employees • 300 in each of the Production departments (see
above)• 70% of Production staff are women
• 60% of the women have children • 100 in management and other back office
tasks
The Problem.....
• Your company has no Pandemic Plan• The WHO have just declared that they
are moving to Level 4 • You have a borrowing limit of £9M• You are currently at £8.6M• Your Board meets in 30 minutes• You need to have a plan for them
Planning Assumptions
• The number of staff off will follow the normal pandemic model
• Each member of staff will be off for 8-14 days
• You have a contract which means you will be sued if you fail to deliver your heart stents
• Sutures are dissolvable and will degrade within 7 days if not packaged
Target
• 10 minutes to discuss what questions staff will ask and what answers you should give
• 10 minutes for responses• 10 minutes feedback and discussion
We Have the Solution!
