Whose Progress? Causes and Consequences of Unequal Transitions

Rhiannon Moore & Bridget Azubuike Young Lives, University of Oxford

CIES Conference9th March 2017@yloxford

@rhi_moore@orbeezy06

OUTLINE

Progression through school and grade repetition: introduction

Enrolment trajectories of Young Lives children: transitions from primary to secondary

Grade progression and repetition: when are children falling behind?

Grade repetition: some of the factors involved Discussion

TRANSITIONS TO SECONDARY EDUCATION

With access to basic education now close to universal in most countries, there is increasing policy focus on secondary education:

Who is progressing to secondary education and who is not?Are there key transition points at which children are more likely to drop out or fall behind?What does this mean for the equity of secondary education?

RETURNS TO SECONDARY EDUCATION Increasing returns for higher

levels of education in developing countries (Colclough et al, 2009)

Declining returns to primary education as economies change

Unequal transition to secondary reinforces exclusion of disadvantaged groups in labour market (DFID, 2017)

Secondary education ‘critical’ to breaking intergenerational transmission of poverty (World Bank, 2009)

GRADE REPETITION & BEING ‘OVERAGE’ Enrolment is not all that matters:

patterns of grade progression or repetition are also important

Considerable costs (economic & other) of grade repetition

Children who repeat grades learn less than those of similar ability level who progress to the next grade (Glick & Sahn, 2010)

‘Over-age for grade’ children are most at risk of not completing basic education (Sabates et al, 2010)

ENROLMENT TRAJECTORIES Young Lives data –

can track education history across time

By age 12 (2013), the number of Young Lives children enrolled in school was comparable across the three countries

But different paths to getting to this point – differences across the countries, points in time and groups in each country

GRADE PROGRESSION: VIETNAM

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Year

Dropped out

2 to 4 years ahead

One year ahead

Right grade for age

One year behind

2 to 4 years behind

5 to 7 years behind

VN YC Schooling Progress

GRADE PROGRESSION: INDIA

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Year

Dropped out

2 to 4 years ahead

One year ahead

Right grade for age

One year behind

2 to 4 years behind

5 to 7 years behind

IN YC Schooling Progress

GRADE PROGRESSION: ETHIOPIA

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016Year

Dropped out

2 to 4 years ahead

One year ahead

Right grade for age

One year behind

2 to 4 years behind

5 to 7 years behind

8 to 9 years behind

ET YC Schooling Progress

FACTORS IN GRADE PROGRESSION Quite a lot of variation

in grade progression in Ethiopia and India explained by student background characteristics

This is less apparent in Vietnam – suggests other factors in grade repetition

Type of school attended is also important in Ethiopia and India – more likely to repeat grades in private schools.

OLS regression.

Dependent Variable: Positive grade

progression.VARIABLES Ethiopia India Vietnam R1 middle tercile (ref category: R1 bottom tercile) 0.368*** 0.149** 0.0824**R1 top tercile 0.401*** 0.201** 0.0855**

R4 middle tercile (ref category: R4 bottom tercile) -0.141* 0.198*** 0.0704**R4 top tercile 0.155 0.281*** 0.0605

Male (ref category: Female) -0.170*** -0.215*** -0.0237

Urban (ref category: Rural) 0.0931 0.155* -0.0676*

Caregivers education -0.0130* 0.0454*** 0.0121***

Private School (ref category: Public school) -0.243** -0.672*** 0.206Other School type -0.372* -0.715*** -0.0370

Score on Language Test R4 0.0302*** 0.0186*** 0.00352***

Constant 3.012*** 3.748*** 4.474***

Observations 1,078 1,409 1,402R-squared 0.283 0.224 0.053Standard errors in parentheses*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

DISCUSSION & IMPLICATIONS Grade repetition is an important

aspect of the schooling trajectories of Young Lives children

Children in private schools more likely to repeat grades in Ethiopia and India

Need to understand more about the factors behind grade repetition

Policy solutions need to address grade repetition and ‘over-age for grade’ enrolment e.g. remedial education

DISCUSSION & IMPLICATIONS Children from all backgrounds are

staying in school for longer - but most disadvantaged are still more likely to drop out before age 15

Transition to secondary school is key point for dropout

Policy solutions needed which focus on helping children make this transition

But need to avoid placing emphasis on completing more years of education rather than improving learning (e.g. ASER 2016)

REFERENCESASER (2016) ASER 2016 (Rural) Findings. Delhi: ASER.

Colclough, C., Kingdon, G. and Patrinos, H.A. (2009) The Pattern of Returns to Education and Its Implications. RECOUP Working Paper 4. Cambridge: RECOUP.

DFID (2017) Economic Development Strategy: prosperity, poverty and meeting global challenges. London: DFID.

Glick, P. and Sahn, D.E. (2010) ‘Early Academic Performance, Grade Repetition, and School Attainment in Senegal: A Panel Data Analysis’ World Bank Economic Review. 24 (1): 93-120.

Sabates, R., Akyeampong, K., Westbrook, J. and Hunt, F. (2010) School Drop out: Patterns, Causes, Changes and Policies. Paper commissioned for the EFA GMR 2011, The Hidden Crisis: Armed conflict and education.

World Bank (2009) Secondary Education in India: Universalising Opportunity. Washington DC: Human Development Unit South Asia Region.