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Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.comand ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000

INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY R ESEARCH Jon Morrison1 (403) [email protected]

Dave Popowich1 (403) [email protected]

Nick Corcoran1 (403) [email protected]

Adam Gill, CFA1 (403) 216-3405

[email protected]

Serhiy Petrenko1 (403) [email protected]

Scott Reid1 (403) [email protected]

Arthur Grayfer, CFA1 (403) 216-3409

[email protected]

Shahzaib Merwat1 (403) [email protected]

Dan Forget1 (403) [email protected]

Jeremy Kaliel1 (403) [email protected]

Ashley Connolly1 (403) 260-8668

[email protected]

EnergyINDUSTRY UPDAT

CIBC Oil & Gas WeeklyApril 27, 20

Oil & Gas - Dividen

Corporatio

Sector Weighting: M A R K E T W E I G H

Oil & Gas - Intermediate Junior Produce


Oil & Gas - Internation

E&Sector Weighting: M A R K E T W E I G H

Oil & Gas - Large Ca


Oilfield Services

Equipme

Sector Weighting: O V E R W E I G H

All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated. 15-135584 ©

CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important required disclosures, including potential conflicts

interest. See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the end of this report, or at the end of eac

section hereof, where applicable.


2/33

Exhibit 1. North American Energy Equity Indices

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.Note: the S&P 500 Drillers index includes land and offshore drillers.

Source of front cover image: CIBC World Markets Inc.

TSX vs. S&P 500 TSX vs. TSX Capped Energy S&P 500 vs. S&P 500 Energy

Energy Indices - Canada Energy Indices - U.S.

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

TSX E&P TR

TSX Integrated TR

TSX Oilfield Services & Equipment TR

TSX Drillers TR

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

S&P 500 E&P

S&P 500 Integrated

S&P 500 Equipment & Services

S&P 500 Drillers

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

TSX Composite

S&P 500

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

TSX Composite

TSX Capped Energy

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

S&P 500

S&P 500 Energy


3/33

Exhibit 2. Commodities and ETF’s Funds Flow

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

WTI vs Brent Henry Hub vs AECO

Natural Gas Liquids Funds Flow by Sector for US Equity ETFs for the Week Ending April 24, 2015

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

$130

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

U S $ / B b l

WTI Brent

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

U S $ / M M B t u

Henry Hub AECO

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

U S $ / B b l

Alberta Condensate Texas Condensate

Alberta Propane Texas Propane

$15+

$126

-$194

-$122

-$23

$1

-$286

-$15

-$4

$123

-$141

$57

-$137

-500 0 500

Health Care

Industrials

Utilities

Consumer Staples

Consumer Discretionary

Real Estate

Communications Sector

Thematic

Technology

Materials

Energy

Financial

US$ (Millions)


4/33

Exhibit 3. CIBC Energy Indices


TSX E&P vs. Non-Dividend Junior E&Ps TR Index TSX E&P vs. Dividend-Paying E&Ps TR Index

TSX E&P vs. CIBC Large Cap. E&Ps TSX E&P vs. CIBC Integrated E&Ps

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

TSX E&P TR

CIBC Large Cap. E&Ps TR Index

0.50

0.70

0.90

1.101.30

1.50

1.70

1.90

2.10

2.30

2.50

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

TSX E&P TR

Non-Dividend Junior E&Ps TR Index

0.50

0.70

0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

1.90

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

TSX E&P TR

Dividend-Paying E&Ps TR Index

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

TSX E&P TR

CIBC Integrated E&Ps TR Index


5/33

Exhibit 4. CIBC Energy Indices


TSX E&P vs. CIBC Royalty Corps TSX E&P vs. International E&Ps

TSX O&G-Equipment & Services, -Dri llers vs. CIBC Oil field Services STENRE Index vs. OSX Index vs. Oilf ield Services Cos

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

TSX Oilfield Services & Equipment TR

TSX Drillers TR

CIBC Oilfield Services Coverage

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

TSX E&P TR

CIBC Royalty Corps TR Index

PSK IPO

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

TSX E&P TR

CIBC International E&Ps TR Index

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

STENRE Index

OSX Index

CIBC Oilfield Services Coverage


6/33

Exhibit 5. Calendar

Note: All times in Mountain Time (MT). Excludes equities not under CIBC’s Oil & Gas coverage universe. Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

North American Oil & Gas Economic Calendar April 2015

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Legend1 2 3 4

5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Land Sale:

SKLand Sale:

AB

12 13 14 15 16 17 18

CO WCS NG

19 20 21 22 23 24 25

CL

Q1 Earnings:

MTL

Land Sale:

BC

26 27 28 29 30Q1 Earnings:

PD

PSK

Q1 Earnings:

IMO

CVE

SU

ARX

TOU Land Sale:

AB

Q1 Earnings:

PWT

COS

IMO

Good Friday

Earnings Release

Ticker Before Market Open

Ticker After Market Close

Futures Contract Expiries

CL WTI 1-Month

CO Brent 1-Month

NG HH 1-Month

WC S WC S 1-M onth

Canadian Crown Land Sales

AB, BC , MB, SK

Holiday/Market Closed

Canadian Holiday

US Holiday

May

Su M Tu W Th F Sa

1 2

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

17 18 19 20 21 22 23

24 25 26 27 28 29 30

31

June

Su M Tu W Th F Sa

1 2 3 4 5 6

7 8 9 10 11 12 13

14 15 16 17 18 19 20

21 22 23 24 25 26 27

28 29 30


7/33

Exhibit 6. Target Prices and Investment Recommendations – Integrated, Large Cap, and Dividend-Paying E&P’s

Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Returns % ∆ 52-Week ort ort

Company Ticker Price Analyst

Price

Target1

R a t i n g Target/P

rice

Div.

Yield Total D/D W/W M/M 3-Mo YTD 1-Year 1-Year Chart High Low

Cap.

($MM)

Net Debt

($MM)

EV

($MM)

Interest

(MM)

Interest

Ratio

% of

Float W/W ∆ Y/Y ∆

IntegratedCenovus Energy CVE $23.34 Grayfer $26.00 SP 11.4% 4.6% 16.0% -0.4% 1.2% 12.8% -3.1% -1.4% -25.4% $34.79 $18.72 $19,246 $3,304 $22,550 12.50 2.29 1.5% -12.1% -12.1%

Husky Energy HSE $27.86 Grayfer $31.00 SP 11.3% 4.3% 15.6% 0.0% 1.2% 8.8% 3.6% 2.5% -18.9% $37.28 $21.39 $27,406 $4,025 $31,431 22.96 12.60 7.7% -0.5% -0.5%

Imperial Oil IMO $54.22 Grayfer $60.00 SP 10.7% 1.0% 11.6% -1.7% -0.5% 7.5% 14.8% 8.6% 3.1% $57.96 $44.08 $45,957 $6,676 $52,633 4.10 3.54 1.6% 0.2% 0.2%

Suncor Energy SU $40.22 Grayfer $49.00 SO 21.8% 2.8% 24.6% 0.3% 0.2% 9.4% 8.5% 9.8% 0.9% $47.18 $30.89 $57,768 $7,834 $65,602 10.79 1.42 0.7% -0.7% -0.7%

Average 13.8% 3.0% 16.9% -0.4% 0.5% 9.6% 5.9% 4.9% -10.1% 1 2. 59 4. 96 2. 9% - 3. 3% - 3.3 %

Large CapCanadian Natural Resources CNQ $40.95 Grayfer $50.00 SO 22.1% 2.2% 24.3% 0.2% -0.7% 5.9% 13.3% 14.7% -6.9% $49.57 $31.00 $44,711 $13,977 $58,688 7.82 1.65 0.7% -7.3% -7.3%

Canadian Oil Sands COS $12.88 Grayfer $11.00 SU -14.6% 1.6% -13.0% -0.4% -0.6% 30.9% 63.1% 24.2% -43.6% $24.68 $6.01 $6,242 $1,856 $8,098 21.84 3.27 4.8% 0.5% 0.5%

Encana ECA (US) $14.00 Grayfer $15.00 SP 7.1% 2.0% 9.1% -0.3% 7.3% 28.1% 5.3% 1.6% -38.0% $24.83 $10.53 $11,773 $5,285 $17,058 15.74 2.17 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%

Talisman Energy TLM (US) $7.89 Grayfer $8.00 SP 1.4% 3.4% 4.8% 0.1% 0.5% 4.5% 6.0% 2.2% -22.8% $11.22 $3.46 $8,143 $4,578 $12,720 23.29 2.36 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%

Tourmaline Oil TOU $41.79 Grayfer $53.00 SO 26.8% 0.0% 26.8% 0.1% -1.4% 8.4% 10.4% 8.0% -23.9% $59.25 $32.80 $8,631 $1,346 $9,977 7.23 11.45 4.4% 0.9% 0.9%

Average 8.6% 3.2% 10.4% -0.1% 1 .0 % 1 5. 6% 1 9. 6% 1 0. 1% -27.1% 1 5. 19 4. 18 2. 8% - 1. 2% - 1.2 %

Dividend-Paying ARC Resources ARX $25.10 Kaliel $30.00 SO 20% 4.8% 24% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7% 12.0% 1.1% -19.5% $33.68 $20.75 $8,465 $883 $9,348 11.81 7.59 3.7% 4% 4%

Baytex Energy BTE $23.75 Kaliel $25.00 SO 5% 5.1% 10% 0.7% 2.9% 20.4% 23.8% 24.8% -44.9% $49.88 $14.56 $4,858 $1,666 $6,524 6.42 1.88 3.2% -51% -51%

Bonavista Energy BNP $7.95 Kaliel $10.50 SO 32% 5.3% 37% 3.2% -0.6% 23.3% 26.2% 10.7% -51.4% $17.73 $5.62 $1,718 $1,155 $2,873 4.26 1.89 2.2% -2% -2%

Bonterra Energy BNE $36.83 Kaliel $45.00 SP 22% 4.9% 27% -2.5% -6.5% 8.8% -7.5% -9.8% -31.0% $65.99 $32.87 $1,185 $380 $1,565 0.48 1.93 1.7% -13% -13%

Cardinal Energy CJ $16.12 Gill $17.50 SO 9% 5.2% 14% -0.4% 0.4% 9.2% 22.9% 21.2% 10.5% $20.96 $11.58 $918 $75 $992 0.77 1.37 1.5% -2% -2%

Crescent Point Energy CPG $32.10 Kaliel $37.00 SO 15% 8.6% 24% -0.6% -0.9% 11.6% 7.8% 22.1% -22.3% $48.68 $21.20 $14,333 $3,458 $17,791 14.89 5.36 3.3% 24% 24%

Enerplus ERF $15.17 Kaliel $15.00 SP -1% 4.7% 4% -2.0% -2.7% 19.2% 34.9% 38.2% -33.2% $27.05 $9.02 $3,121 $1,165 $4,286 7.02 4.31 3.4% 4% 4%

Freehold Royalties FRU $17.82 Grayfer R R R R R -0.6% -1.7% -1.3% 3.4% - 5.4 % - 23. 2% R R R R R R R R R R

Journey Energy JOY $5.45 Gill $5.50 SP 1% 5.4% 6% -2.2% -0.5% 7.9% 4.5% 2.0% na $12.25 $3.69 $243 $107 $349 0.01 0.35 0.0% 0% na

Lightstream Resources LTS $1.26 Kaliel $1.15 SU -9% 0.0% -9% 1.6% -6.0% 27.3% 46.5% 5.9% -79.8% $9.09 $0.64 $249 $1,625 $1,873 4.71 1.77 2.5% -13% -13%

Long Run Exploration LRE $0.91 Gill $1.00 SP 10% 13.5% 23% -2.2% -4.2% 26.4% - 26. 5% - 38 .3 % - 82. 7% $6.09 $0.66 $176 $740 $916 6.07 2.75 3.8% 1% 1%

Northern Blizzard NBZ $9.49 Kaliel $14.00 SO 48% 10.1% 58% -0.6% 5.4% 27.2% 21.2% 23.8% na $19.00 $6.86 $981 $399 $1,380 0.99 4.44 3.5% -3% na

Pengrowth Energy PGF $4.18 Kaliel $4.50 SP 8% 6.2% 14% 0.2% -0.2% 10.5% 25.6% 17.4% -34.8% $7.78 $2.77 $2,230 $2,123 $4,353 13.36 5.54 2.5% -19% -19%

Penn West Petroleum PWT $2.95 Kaliel $3.00 SP 2% 1.4% 3% -0.3% -0.7% 41.1% 56.0% 22.0% -67.6% $11.00 $1.67 $1,467 $2,048 $3,515 16.02 3.24 3.4% 6% 6%

Peyto Exploration PEY $35.56 Kaliel $42.00 SO 18% 3.7% 22% -0.6% -4.1% 4.7% 7.5% 7.3% -7.5% $41.95 $29.67 $5,644 $852 $6,496 1.35 1.72 0.9% 72% 72%

PrairieSky Royalty PSK $31.68 Grayfer $37.00 SO 17% 3.4% 20% -1.7% -4.3% 6.4% 25.5% 6.1% na $42.60 $23.06 $4,730 -$69 $4,661 0.53 0.47 0.4% 1% na

Spyglass Resources SGL $0.36 Kaliel $0.25 SU -30% 0.0% -30% 4.4% 4.4% 12.7% 22.4% 7.6% -79.2% $1.89 $0.26 $45 $194 $239 4.05 34.53 3.3% 0% 0%

Surge Energy SGY $3.75 Kaliel $4.00 SP 7% 8.0% 15% 2.2% -0.8% 21.0% 49.7% 4.6% -42.4% $8.82 $2.23 $825 $520 $1,345 5.60 1.57 2.6% 7% 7%

TORC Oil & Gas TOG $10.64 Gill $11.50 SO 8% 5.1% 13% -0.5% -2.3% 8.1% 36.1% 40.3% -17.8% $16.33 $6.48 $1,174 $262 $1,436 0.98 0.57 0.9% 8% 8%

Trilogy Energy TET $8.98 Kaliel $11.00 SO-S 22% 0.0% 22% 1.6% 4.1% 16.2% 39.9% 13.5% -70.6% $31.64 $5.27 $1,130 $751 $1,881 2.57 1.94 4.0% -9% -9%Twin Butte Energy TBE $0.81 Kaliel $1.00 SP 23% 14.8% 38% 2.5% 5.2% 3.8% 20.2% 2.6% -62.3% $2.50 $0.65 $285 $353 $638 0.85 0.13 0.2% 4% 4%

Vermilion Energy VET $58.75 Kaliel $69.00 SO 17% 4.4% 22% -0.6% 0.4% 9.1% 8.4% 4.7% -14.7% $78.24 $44.05 $6,304 $1,289 $7,593 0.67 0.84 0.7% 62% 62%

Whitecap Resources WCP $15.04 Kaliel $18.50 SO 23% 5.0% 28% -0.6% -1.2% 4.2% 33.8% 33.4% 11.6% $18.70 $9.75 $4,378 $867 $5,244 7.21 1.57 2.8% 73% 73%

Peer Group Average 12% 5.4% 18% 0.1% -0.6% 14.5% 21.5% 11.1% -38.1% 5.03 3.90 2.3% 7% 8%

E&P Dividend-Paying Group Average 12% 5.5% 17% 0.2% -0.4% 15.6% 22.2% 12.1% -38.9% 5.24 4.06 2.4% 7% 8%

Royalty Group Average4

17% 3.4% 20% -1.1% -3.0% 2 .6 % 1 4. 4% 0 .3 % -23.2% 0.53 0.47 0.4% 1% na

Notes:1) Price targets are 12 to 18 m onths.2) All Encana & Talisman figures are in USD unless stated otherwise.

3) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.4) Only includes Freehold Royalties and PrairieSky Royalty.


8/33

Exhibit 7. Target Prices and Investment Recommendations – Junior, International, and Oilfield Services Co’s


Returns % ∆ 52-Week Short Short

Company Ticker Price Analyst

Price

Target1

R a t i n g Target/P

rice

Div.

Yield Total D /D W/W M/M Y/Y YTD 1-Year 1-Year Chart Low High

Cap.

($MM)

Net Debt

($MM)

EV

($MM)

Interest

(MM)

Interest

Ratio

% of

Float W/W ∆ Y/ Y ∆

Junior Bellatrix Exploration BXE $3.81 Gill $3.65 SP -4% -- -4% -0.5% -1.0% 16.9% 22.1% - 9.9 % - 63. 6% $11.65 $2.38 $731 $695 $1,426 14.39 7.40 9.1% 2% nm

Birchcliff Energy BIR $8.12 Gill $8.50 SO 5% -- 5% -0.4% 1.0% 18.2% 23.6% 3.8% -34.9% $14.97 $5.99 $1,236 $614 $1,850 3.34 6.09 3.1% -2% -2%

Cequence Energy CQE $0.96 Gill $1.00 SU 4% -- 4% -2.0% -4.0% 4.3% 7.9% - 9.4 % - 68. 2% $3.21 $0.79 $203 $82 $285 1.56 3.45 1.1% -14% nm

Crew Energy CR $5.17 Gill $6.00 SP 16% -- 16% 2.4% -6.7% 6.2% - 10. 9% - 12 .7 % - 59. 0% $12.74 $4.66 $724 $240 $964 13.76 6.91 10.2% 1% 1%

DeeThree Exploration DTX $7.44 Gill $8.25 SO 11% -- 11% -1.1% -0.4% 15.7% 38.3% 45.6% -36.6% $12.18 $4.03 $662 $181 $843 2.15 1.10 2.9% 19% nm

Kelt Exploration KEL $8.95 Gill $10.25 SO 15% -- 15% 1.1% -1.2% 21.1% 40.9% 27.9% -34.7% $15.61 $5.79 $1,412 $191 $1,603 3.94 4.30 3.0% 9% 9%

Legacy Oil & Gas LEG $2.65 Gill $2.75 SP 4% -- 4% 1.1% 3.5% 63.6% 59.6% 22.7% -69.7% $10.03 $1.17 $529 $842 $1,371 14.74 1.64 7.6% -8% -8%

NuVista Energy NVA $8.39 Gill R R R R R -1.3% -2.9% 13.2% 27.3% 13.2% -24.8% R R R R R R R R R R

Painted Pony Petroleum PPY $6.90 Gill $10.00 SO 45% -- 45% 0.7% -4.8% 13.9% -8.5% - 25.4% -42.5% $14.75 $5.68 $686 $22 $708 1.00 0.96 1.0% -2% -2%

Paramount Resources POU $36.73 Gill $43.00 SO 17% -- 17% -0.1% -0.7% 11.5% 27.3% 30.6% -36.3% $66.37 $21.72 $3,851 $675 $4,526 3.84 7.98 6.6% -3% -3%Perpetual Energy PMT $0.99 Gill $1.00 SP 1% -- 1% -2.0% -10.0% - 11.6% 2.1% -13 .2 % -43 .1 % $2.37 $0.87 $148 $94 $242 3.28 10.56 2.9% 25% nm

Raging River Exploration RRX $9.17 Gill $10.50 SO 15% -- 15% -0.6% 0.3% 5.1% 21.1% 25.2% -4.7% $11.25 $5.58 $1,780 $183 $1,963 0.58 0.30 0.3% -21% -21%

RMP Energy RMP $3.48 Gill $4.00 SP 15% -- 15% 1.5% -1.1% 14.9% - 16. 5% - 24 .0 % - 57. 6% $10.07 $2.75 $425 $152 $577 1.60 0.52 1.4% 8% 8%

Seven Generations Energy VII $20.65 Gill $23.50 SO 14% -- 14% 0.3% 8.1% 27.6% 26.4% 17.8% na $24.70 $14.25 $5,060 $480 $5,540 4.38 4.68 2.8% 21% na

Average 12% 12% -0.1% -2.2% 14.8% 18.0% 5.7% -44.3% 5.35 4.27 4.1% 1% -2%

InternationalBankers Petroleum BNK $3.57 Popowich $5.00 SO 40% -- 40% -3.8% 1.7% 30.3% 25.7% 10.2% -39.9% $7.45 $2.31 $932 -$103 $829 7.87 1.90 3.1% 4% 4%

Canacol Energy CNE $3.63 Popowich $4.75 SO 31% -- 31% 0.0% 3.7% 26.0% 21.1% 48.4% -54.7% $8.77 $1.40 $391 $188 $579 0.92 1.13 0.8% -30% nm

Gran Tierra Energy GTE $4.39 Popowich $5.00 SP 14% -- 14% 0.5% 1.6% 30.7% 55.7% - 1.6 % - 45. 7% $8.69 $2.58 $1,256 -$240 $1,017 6.95 4.63 2.5% 2% 2%

Pacific Rubiales PRE $3.88 Popowich $2.00 SU -48% -- -48% 5.4% 1.0% 27.6% 2.9% -46 .0 % -77 .3 % $23.86 $2.54 $1,215 $4,823 $6,039 10.37 1.23 4.7% -15% -15%

Petroamerica Oil PTA $0.12 Popowich $0.10 SU -17% -- -17% -4.0% 4.3% -4.0% -20.0% - 14.3% -64.2% $0.44 $0.11 $105 -$18 $86 0.23 0.21 0.0% 45% 45%

Parex Resources PXT $9.28 Popowich R R R R R -1.3% 1.9% 14.1% 38.3% 22.4% -16.7% R R R R R R R R R R

TransGlobe Energy TGL $5.41 Popowich $5.50 SP 2% 5% 6% -0.9% 3.0% 20.8% 53.8% 14.2% -31.9% $9.01 $3.23 $407 -$230 $177 2.27 4.31 3.3% -8% -8%

Average 4% 5% 4% -0.6% 2 .5 % 2 0. 8% 2 5. 3% 4 .8 % -47.2% 4.77 2.23 2.4% 0% 5%

Oilfield ServicesBlack Diamond Group BDI $15.64 Morrison $10.00 SU -36% 6.1% -36% 0.5% -0.6% 19.0% 58.1% 25.2% -53.3% $35.95 $9.65 $642 $176 $818 0.45 1.01 1.3% -14% -14%

Calfrac Well Services CFW $9.88 Morrison $13.00 SO 32% 5.1% 32% -1.1% -5.5% 14.5% 20.0% 0.1% -45.9% $22.57 $7.30 $941 $658 $1,599 1.90 1.68 2.7% 18% 18%

Canyon Services Group FRC $8.14 Morrison $10.50 SO 29% 7.4% 29% -2.7% -7.8% 24.7% 18.1% - 5.9 % - 41. 9% $20.05 $5.60 $558 $30 $588 1.85 2.44 2.9% 15% 15%

Enerflex EFX $15.78 Morrison $18.50 SP 17% 2.2% 17% -2.9% -3.7% 3.6% -0.1% -3.2% -8.9% $21.50 $14.36 $1,241 $347 $1,588 0.67 4.50 0.9% -11% -11%

Ensign Energy Services ESI $9.97 Morrison $12.25 SP 23% 4.8% 23% -4.2% -8.0% -0.1% 0.0% -1.1% -39.5% $17.74 $8.17 $1,523 $732 $2,256 4.01 5.04 3.2% -8% nmf

Mullen Group MTL $20.92 Morrison $19.00 SU -9% 5.7% -9% -0.8% -8.2% 1.9% 7.1% - 0.4 % - 24. 9% $31.34 $18.11 $1,917 $380 $2,297 1.82 4.48 2.0% -2% -2%

Pason Systems PSI $20.75 Morrison $21.00 SU 1% 3.3% 1% -5.3% -8.4% 3.1% 17.4% - 4.3 % - 30. 5% $35.51 $16.79 $1,720 -$145 $1,575 0.24 0.90 0.3% -23% -23%

Precision Drilling PD $8.36 Morrison $11.50 SO 38% 3.3% 38% -0.7% -2.8% 6.9% 27.6% 19.5% -37.6% $15.65 $5.70 $2,448 $1,361 $3,808 2.61 0.70 0.9% -6% -6%

Savanna Energy Services SVY $2.08 Morrison $2.50 SP 20% 5.8% 20% -1.4% -6.3% 12.4% -3.9% - 37.5% -74.6% $9.31 $1.51 $187 $342 $529 1.40 1.68 1.6% -12% nm

Secure Energy Services SES $16.46 Morrison $22.00 SO 34% 1.5% 34% -0.3% -4.9% 3.1% 10.7% - 2.6 % - 14. 5% $28.05 $12.79 $1,998 $393 $2,390 1.12 1.60 0.9% -29% -29%

Total Energy Services TOT $14.60 Morrison $16.00 SP 10% 1.6% 10% 2.9% 0.3% 3.6% 11.8% 12.5% -36.3% $24.00 $12.10 $453 $64 $517 0.59 13.50 2.0% -4% nmf

Trican Well Service TCW $4.88 Morrison $6.50 SP 33% 6.1% 33% 0.4% -2.6% 32.2% -7.8% - 12.4% -67.3% $18.19 $3.03 $728 $695 $1,423 5.80 1.17 3.9% 71% 71%

Trinidad Drilling TDG $5.12 Morrison $6.75 SO 32% 5.9% 32% -1.0% -4.1% 23.4% 13.1% - 0.4 % - 56. 2% $12.89 $3.82 $692 $457 $1,149 3.58 2.33 2.7% 26% nm

Western Energy Services WRG $6.89 Morrison $9.00 SO 31% 2.9% 31% -0.4% -4.4% 8.7% 25.6% 16.0% -35.0% $11.70 $4.88 $516 $203 $718 0.40 1.47 0.6% 3% 3%

Average 18% 4.4% 18% -1.2% -4.8% 11.2% 14.1% 0.4% -40.5% 1.89 3.04 1.8% 2% 2%

Notes:

1) Price targets are 12 to 18 m onths.

2) nm = not meaningful, na = not available, R = restricted.


9/33

Exhibit 8. Comparables – Integrated, Large Cap, and Dividend-Paying E&P’s


P/CF P/E D/CF EV/DACF EV/Boe/d EV/P+P NAV %

Company Ticker Price 2014 2015E 2016E 2014 2015E 2016E 2014 2015E 2016E 2014 2015E 2016E 2014 2015E 2016E Reserves P/Core P/Risked P/Unrisked

IntegratedCenovus Energy CVE $23.34 5.1x 10.8x 8.4x 27.9x na 42.5x 1.3x 2.1x 2.1x 5.7x 12.6x 9.6x $78,115 $80,081 $83,467 $7.03 129% 97% 67%

Husky Energy HSE $27.86 5.0x 7.2x 5.2x 13.5x 43.7x 16.6x 0.7x 1.5x 1.2x 5.4x 8.4x 6.1x $92,290 $95,836 $90,610 $10.48 142% 103% 89%

Imperial Oil IMO $54.22 8.7x 13.6x 11.2x 14.9x 21.8x 17.4x 1.3x 2.1x 1.5x 9.9x 15.6x 12.6x $169,833 $143,039 $121,371 $14.51 186% 125% 99%

Suncor Energy SU 40.22 6.5x 8.8x 7.5x 12.8x 27.9x 20.1x 0.9x 1.8x 1.6x 6.7x 10.0x 8.6x 124,647 121,892 117,725 8.51 158% 123% 90%

Average 6.3x 1 0.1x 8.1x 1 7.3x 31.1x 24.2x 1.0x 1.9x 1.6x 6.9x 1 1.6x 9.2x $116,221 $110,212 $103,293 $10.13 154% 112% 86%

arge apCanadian Natural Resources CNQ $40.95 4.7x 7.7x 5.3x 11.8x na 19.9x 1.5x 2.7x 1.9x 6.0x 9.6x 6.9x $74,248 $68,309 $67,487 $7.97 98% 89% 70%

Canadian Oil Sands COS $12.88 5.6x 18.8x 9.2x 13.6x na 18.4x 1.7x 6.3x 2.7x 7.0x 17.8x 10.8x $85,639 $78,947 $76,746 $5.52 115% 101% 82%

Encana ECA (US) 14.00 3.5x 8.5x 4.4x 10.4x na 19.8x 2.4x 4.4x 2.2x 5.0x 9.7x 5.8x 36,325 41,966 40,670 3.16 139% 76% 39%

Talisman Energy TLM (US) $7.89 3.8x 4.6x 4.0x na na na 2.2x 3.7x 4.0x 5.9x 7.1x 7.0x $34,395 $37,503 $37,678 $7.77 208% 115% 39%

Tourmaline Oil TOU 41.79 9.1x 9.5x 6.1x 18.3x na 24.7x 1.2x 1.7x 1.7x 11.7x 10.8x 7.4x 85,156 63,020 54,407 11.66 172% 82% 48%

Average 5.4x 9.8x 5.8x 13.5x na 20.7x 1.8x 3.8x 2.5x 7.1x 11.0x 7.6x $63,153 $57,949 $55,398 $7.21 146% 93% 56%

v en - ay ng ARC Resources ARX $25.10 7.1x 11.8x 8.9x -- -- -- 1.1x 1.6x 1.3x 7.9x 12.6x 9.6x $83,176 $76,937 $72,746 $13.90 310% 90% 47%

Baytex Energy BTE $23.75 4.0x 7.3x 6.3x -- -- -- 2.6x 2.7x 2.2x 6.0x 8.7x 7.3x $112,893 $75,860 $71,691 $15.12 195% 100% 63%

Bonavista Energy BNP 7.95 3.0x 4.4x 3.8x -- -- -- 2.1x 2.9x 2.2x 4.6x 6.5x 5.4x 37,212 35,471 33,802 6.73 132% 75% 49%

Bonterra Energy BNE $36.83 5.4x 10.4x 6.9x -- -- -- 1.0x 3.5x 2.1x 6.2x 12.6x 8.3x $118,619 $121,805 $113,418 $19.50 267% 85% 50%

Cardinal Energy CJ 16.12 7.6x 10.6x 7.9x -- -- -- 0.6x 0.8x 0.5x 10.1x 10.8x 7.9x 124,334 88,155 83,234 23.07 144% 128% 115%

Crescent Point Energy CPG $32.10 5.6x 7.9x 7.7x -- -- -- 1.4x 2.1x 2.3x 6.7x 9.2x 8.9x $126,355 $116,283 $113,320 $22.04 232% 83% 47%

Enerplus ERF 15.17 3.6x 5.4x 5.5x -- -- -- 1.6x 2.0x 2.4x 4.8x 6.8x 7.1x 41,561 44,187 42,862 10.56 174% 111% 63%

Freehold Royalties FRU $17.82 R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Journey Energy JOY $5.45 2.2x 4.9x 3.4x -- -- -- 1.1x 2.5x 1.8x 3.4x 6.6x 4.7x $33,105 $32,826 $33,670 $7.04 103% 94% 70%

Lightstream Resources LTS 1.26 0.4x 1.2x 1.3x -- -- -- 2.8x 7.3x 7.6x 2.7x 5.6x 5.8x 46,346 58,540 69,381 11.62 166% 66% 25%

Long Run Exploration LRE $0.91 0.5x 1.2x 1.2x -- -- -- 2.5x 4.8x 4.8x 2.9x 4.9x 4.9x $32,870 $31,962 $34,160 $5.95 47% 47% 18%

Northern Blizzard NBZ 9.49 3.6x 6.2x 4.6x -- -- -- 1.4x 1.7x 0.8x 4.4x 6.8x 4.6x 66,598 63,896 59,748 8.72 80% 61% 51%

Pengrowth Energy PGF $4.18 4.4x 4.9x 4.7x -- -- -- 4.2x 4.3x 3.8x 7.5x 7.4x 7.0x $59,397 $58,825 $58,825 $7.82 143% 88% 63%

Penn West Petroleum PWT 2.95 1.6x 4.9x 2.2x -- -- -- 2.5x 7.7x 3.2x 3.5x 8.6x 4.6x 33,856 37,797 37,797 6.27 200% 49% 15%

Peyto Exploration PEY $35.56 8.2x 9.1x 7.6x -- -- -- 1.5x 1.8x 1.8x 9.3x 10.2x 8.8x $85,064 $72,994 $62,466 $12.22 292% 108% 65%

PrairieSky Royalty PSK 31.68 26.0x 28.7x 21.6x -- -- -- -0.4x -0.3x -0.5x 36.0x 28.6x 21.3x 249,594 260,046 253,824 na 125% n.a. n.a.

Spyglass Resources SGL 0.36 0.8x 3.8x 3.7x -- -- -- 3.3x 16.1x 15.4x 3.2x 12.0x 11.7x 17,334 26,577 29,897 4.42 na 89% 31%

Surge Energy SGY $3.75 3.1x 5.4x 4.0x -- -- -- 2.4x 3.6x 2.6x 5.1x 7.7x 5.9x $74,426 $67,242 $67,241 $12.00 109% 83% 59%

TORC Oil & Gas TOG 10.64 5.4x 10.0x 8.0x -- -- -- 1.3x 2.5x 2.0x 7.3x 11.6x 8.9x 125,906 111,104 108,944 22.18 172% 139% 68%

Trilogy E nergy TET $8.98 3.2x 10.9x 7.0x -- -- -- 2.1x 6.9x 4.5x 4.8x 13.0x 9.2x $53,588 $62,705 $67,184 $17.88 266% 60% 16%

Twin Butte Energy TBE 0.81 1.4x 1.6x 2.0x -- -- -- 1.7x 1.8x 2.3x 2.8x 3.2x 3.9x 30,026 34,038 34,039 10.42 75% 52% 42%

Vermilion Energy VET $58.75 7.7x 12.3x 8.2x -- -- -- 1.6x 2.6x 1.6x 8.8x 13.3x 9.0x $153,169 $136,814 $116,817 $30.76 120% 91% 55%

Whitecap Resources WCP 15.04 7.2x 7.6x 6.4x -- -- -- 1.6x 1.4x 0.9x 8.4x 8.4x 6.8x 161,570 131,108 116,540 23.92 163% 93% 65%

E&P Dividend-Paying Group Average 4.1x 6.7x 5.3x 1.9x 3.8x 3.1x 5.7x 8.9x 7.2x $77,019 $70,720 $67,990 $13.91 169% 85% 51%

Royalty Group Average 26.0x 28.7x 21.6x -0.4x -0.3x -0.5x 36.0x 28.6x 21.3x $249,594 $260,046 $253,824 125%

Notes:

1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months.

2) All Encana & Talisman figures are in USD unless stated otherwise.


4) Only includes Freehold Royalties and PrairieSky Royalty.


10/33

Exhibit 9. Comparables – Junior, International, and Oilfield Services Co’s


P/CF P/E D/CF EV/DACF EV/Boe/d + NAV %

Company Ticker Price 2014 2015E 2016E 2014 2015E 2016E 2014 2015E 2016E 2014 2015E 2016E 2014 2015E 2016E Reserves P/Core P/Risked P/Unrisked

Junior Bellatrix Exploration BXE $3.81 2.6x 5.7x 3.6x -- -- -- 2.4x 5.6x 4.2x 4.7x 9.1x 6.6x $35,967 $33,577 $36,284 $5.70 136% 94% 34%

Birchcliff Energy BIR $8.12 4.1x 7.9x 4.6x -- -- -- 1.8x 4.2x 3.1x 5.6x 10.2x 6.7x $52,817 $47,935 $45,265 $3.98 91% 91% 26%

Cequence Energy CQE 0.96 2.9x 4.3x 3.0x -- -- -- 1.0x 1.8x 2.3x 3.4x 5.5x 4.8x 25,092 25,036 28,178 2.41 141% 88% 31%

Crew Energy CR $5.17 3.7x 6.9x 4.7x -- -- -- 1.5x 2.6x 2.5x 5.1x 8.4x 6.4x $40,567 $45,186 $38,880 $4.37 122% 92% 41%

DeeThree Exploration DTX 7.44 3.8x 5.3x 3.9x -- -- -- 1.0x 1.2x 0.9x 4.7x 6.1x 4.7x 73,583 65,090 59,367 16.27 110% 87% 47%

Kelt Exploration KEL $8.95 9.6x 14.4x 9.3x -- -- -- 0.9x 2.3x 2.2x 13.0x 16.6x 10.7x $118,862 $81,445 $74,138 $11.02 144% 100% 46%

Legacy Oil & Gas LEG $2.65 1.5x 3.7x 2.3x -- -- -- 2.5x 6.2x 3.6x 3.6x 7.4x 4.9x $58,696 $60,425 $59,914 $8.90 65% 61% 21%

NuVista Energy NVA 8.39 R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Painted Pony Petroleum PPY $6.90 7.1x 16.6x 7.3x -- -- -- 0.0x 1.6x 2.9x 7.6x 17.9x 9.5x $52,202 $47,035 $41,883 $1.45 81% 70% 26%

Paramount Resources POU 36.73 28.9x 18.6x 6.7x -- -- -- 11.6x 3.5x 1.7x 22.1x 15.0x 7.1x 179,064 80,304 66,221 10.32 141% 94% 53%

Perpetual Energy PMT $0.99 1.9x 11.6x 4.6x -- -- -- 4.2x 8.2x 4.1x 1.8x 6.3x 4.6x $9,955 $13,308 $16,064 $2.98 480% 59% 31%Raging River Exploration RRX 9.17 7.7x 11.3x 7.9x -- -- -- 0.6x 1.2x 0.5x 8.5x 11.9x 8.1x 177,857 145,483 129,806 29.58 156% 121% 81%

RMP Energy RMP $3.48 2.7x 4.7x 3.0x -- -- -- 0.8x 1.5x 1.2x 3.3x 5.9x 3.9x $47,150 $41,627 $37,003 $13.76 147% 92% 62%

Seven Generations Energy VII 20.65 14.2x 12.3x 6.3x -- -- -- 0.5x 2.3x 2.1x 13.3x 11.6x 7.1x 167,594 102,957 69,672 7.03 111% 105% 58%

Average 7.0x 9.5x 5.2x 2.2x 3.2x 2.4x 7.4x 10.2x 6.5x $79,954 $60,724 $54,052 $9.06 148% 89% 43%

InternationalBankers Petroleum BNK $3.57 3.3x 6.3x 4.5x -- -- -- -0.4x -0.5x -0.3x 2.5x 4.3x 3.4x $39,257 $42,970 $40,457 $3.46 84% 80% --

Canacol Energy CNE 3.63 4.3x 6.2x 4.0x -- -- -- 1.0x 3.4x 2.3x 5.1x 6.8x 4.9x 45,238 59,838 48,515 14.53 131% 78% --

Gran Tierra Energy GTE $4.39 4.1x 6.9x 5.3x -- -- -- -0.8x -1.4x -1.1x 2.9x 4.2x 3.4x $39,373 $40,620 $45,231 $7.23 91% 70% --

Pacific Rubiales PRE 3.88 0.6x 1.0x 0.7x -- -- -- 2.4x 3.7x 2.9x 2.3x 3.0x 2.6x 37,124 39,963 43,476 13.03 178% 48% --

Petroamerica Oil PTA 0.12 1.4x 6.9x 9.1x -- -- -- -0.3x -0.6x 3.4x 1.1x 3.7x 9.3x 13,497 20,368 50,299 7.60 90% 74% --

Parex Resources PXT $9.28 R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

TransGlobe Energy TGL 5.41 3.7x 11.8x 7.0x -- -- -- -1.3x -3.8x -2.0x 1.6x 4.3x 3.5x 14,263 17,932 21,032 4.58 78% 74% --

Average 2.9x 6.5x 5.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.9x 2.6x 4.4x 4.5x $31,459 $36,948 $41,502 $8.41 109% 71%

Oilfield Services ↓ EV/EBITDA ↓ ↓ P/TBook ↓Black Diamond Group BDI $15.64 4.9x 8.4x 8.9x 13.3x 34.8x 36.8x 1.3x 2.7x 2.6x 5.9x 8.9x 9.2x -- -- -- 2.0x -- -- --

Calfrac Well Services CFW 9.88 3.5x nm 5.5x 12.4x nm nm 2.5x 60.2x 4.3x 4.4x 19.5x 6.8x -- -- -- 1.1x -- -- --

Canyon Services Group FRC $8.14 4.0x 21.5x 5.8x 10.4x nm 20.5x 0.2x 2.3x 0.3x 4.8x 26.0x 6.5x -- -- -- 1.7x -- -- --

Enerflex EFX 15.78 10.0x 7.4x 6.9x 14.8x 14.1x 12.5x 2.8x 0.9x 0.5x 7.9x 6.2x 6.2x -- -- -- 4.6x -- -- --

Ensign Energy Services ESI $9.97 3.2x 6.6x 4.8x 12.6x nm 26.4x 1.5x 3.1x 2.0x 4.2x 8.6x 6.0x -- -- -- 0.7x -- -- --

Mullen Group MTL 20.92 7.4x 12.6x 9.5x 15.4x 48.1x 27.0x 1.5x 4.1x 2.9x 8.0x 12.5x 10.3x -- -- -- 3.3x -- -- --Pason Systems PSI $20.75 8.3x 18.1x 12.9x 12.4x nm 28.7x -0.7x -1.7x -1.3x 5.8x 15.4x 9.9x -- -- -- 4.1x -- -- --

Precision Drilling PD 8.36 3.6x 6.0x 4.7x 10.6x nm 31.2x 2.0x 3.4x 2.1x 4.7x 7.2x 5.3x -- -- -- 1.1x -- -- --

Savanna Energy Services SVY 2.08 1.3x 3.0x 2.0x 5.9x nm nm 2.4x 4.9x 2.8x 2.9x 7.9x 4.8x -- -- -- 0.3x -- -- --

Secure Energy Services SES $16.46 11.0x 13.2x 10.8x 28.4x nm 27.0x 2.2x 1.1x 0.1x 11.2x 13.1x 9.6x -- -- -- 3.8x -- -- --

Total Energy Services TOT 14.60 4.6x 9.6x 8.0x 9.3x 28.6x 16.6x 0.6x 0.0x -0.3x 5.1x 8.2x 6.3x -- -- -- 1.2x -- -- --

Trican Well Service TCW $4.88 3.3x nm 14.8x nm nm nm 3.1x 125.0x 14.9x 5.3x nm 26.9x -- -- -- 0.6x -- -- --

Trinidad Drilling TDG 5.12 3.3x 8.4x 4.8x 12.1x 31.0x 12.4x 2.2x 6.1x 3.2x 4.6x 8.9x 5.7x -- -- -- 0.7x -- -- --

Western Energy Services WRG $6.89 3.4x 9.0x 5.9x 3.8x 21.2x 10.8x 1.3x 3.5x 1.9x 4.1x 8.2x 5.5x -- -- -- 1.0x -- -- --

Average 5.1x 10.3x 7.5x 12.4x 29.6x 22.7x 1.6x 15.4x 2.6x 5.6x 11.6x 8.5x 1.9x

Notes:

1) Price targets are 12 to 18 months. 3) Oil field Services, Junior E&Ps, Large Caps and Integrated E&Ps D/CF calculated using Net Debt; Dividend-Paying, and Internat ional's D/CF calculated using Current Assets2 ) nm = no t meaning fu l, na = no t ava ilab le , R = rest ri cted . m inus Curren t L iabi li ties .


11/33

Exhibit 10. CIBC vs Consensus – Integrated, Large Cap, and Dividend-Paying E&P’s


2015E CFPS 2015E Production 2016E CFPS 2016E Production

Company Ticker C IBC B ase C on se nsu s Differe nce CIBC Strip C IBC Base C on se nsu s Differe nce CIB C Ba se Co nsen sus D iffe ren ce C IBC S trip CIB C B ase Co nse nsus D iffe ren ce

IntegratedCenovus Energy CVE $2.15 $2.25 -5% $2.74 285,797 280,332 2% $2.77 $2.63 5% $2.85 289,644 287,230 1%

Husky Energy HSE $3.86 $3.47 11% $3.96 343,588 341,972 0% $5.37 $4.42 22% $5.24 373,539 352,376 6%

Imperial Oil IMO $4.00 $3.63 10% $4.68 371,317 360,826 3% $4.85 $4.81 1% $4.98 429,154 421,185 2%

Suncor Energy SU $4.55 $4.07 12% $4.66 568,162 572,691 -1% $5.35 $5.35 0% $5.27 591,053 585,745 1%

Average 7% 1% 7% 2%

Large CapCanadian Natural Resources CNQ $5.35 $5.44 -2% $5.63 873,469 870,016 0% $7.67 $6.74 14% $6.31 883,484 861,222 3%

Canadian Oil Sands COS $0.69 $0.75 -9% $0.72 105,444 103,270 2% $1.41 $1.58 -11% $1.22 105,444 106,049 -1%

Encana ECA (US) $1.65 $2.03 -19% $1.71 415,476 412,522 1% $3.18 $2.68 18% $2.01 434,873 411,221 6%Talisman Energy TLM (US) $1.73 $1.61 7% $1.71 378,636 363,414 4% $1.96 $1.96 0% $1.56 417,028 367,601 13%

Tourmaline Oil TOU $4.39 $4.22 4% $4.41 165,646 163,970 1% $6.87 $5.68 21% $5.81 209,083 194,052 8%

Average -4% 2% 8% 6%

D v dend-Pay ng ARC Resources ARX $2.13 $2.16 -1% $2.30 121,500 120,232 1% $2.81 $2.64 6% $2.55 128,500 126,086 2%

Baytex Energy BTE $3.26 $3.13 4% $3.45 86,000 86,179 0% $3.76 $3.27 15% $3.29 91,000 88,181 3%

Bonavista Energy BNP $1.82 $1.84 -1% $1.89 81,000 80,669 0% $2.10 $1.93 9% $1.81 85,000 81,509 4%

Bonterra Energy BNE $3.54 $3.38 5% $3.93 12,850 13,137 -2% $5.35 $4.70 14% $4.94 13,800 13,559 2%

Cardinal Energy CJ $1.53 $1.52 0% $1.74 11,200 11,224 0% $2.05 $1.81 13% $1.74 11,700 11,698 0%

Crescent Point Energy CPG $4.06 $4.19 -3% $4.34 153,000 152,673 0% $4.17 $4.11 2% $3.99 157,000 156,001 1%

Enerplus ERF $2.80 $2.63 7% $2.93 97,000 97,234 0% $2.77 $2.48 12% $2.43 100,000 97,945 2%

Freehold Royalties FRU R $1.16 R R R 9,920 R R $1.50 R R R 9,744 R

Journey Energy JOY $1.13 $1.16 -3% $1.33 11,200 11,059 1% $1.62 $1.48 10% $1.37 11,200 11,203 0%

Lightstream Resources LTS $1.05 $0.88 19% $1.14 32,000 30,978 3% $0.99 $0.73 36% $0.82 27,000 25,975 4%

Long Run Exploration LRE $0.77 $0.76 1% $0.83 33,000 32,375 2% $0.79 $0.69 15% $0.63 30,000 28,950 4%

Northern Blizzard NBZ $1.54 $1.63 -6% $1.66 21,600 21,813 -1% $2.05 $1.73 19% $1.76 23,100 21,328 8%

Pengrowth Energy PGF $0.85 $0.87 -1% $0.94 74,000 74,129 0% $0.89 $0.88 2% $0.74 74,000 73,126 1%

Penn West Petroleum PWT $0.60 $0.64 -6% $0.71 93,000 91,405 2% $1.34 $1.00 34% $1.13 93,000 86,283 8%Peyto Exploration PEY $3.91 $3.79 3% $3.97 89,000 89,667 -1% $4.66 $4.51 4% $4.04 104,000 101,726 2%

PrairieSky Royalty PSK $1.10 $1.13 -2% $1.14 18,026 18,583 -3% $1.46 $1.39 5% $1.34 18,398 18,799 -2%

Spyglass Resources SGL $0.09 $0.12 -25% $0.21 9,000 8,949 1% $0.10 $0.08 22% $0.14 8,000 7,900 1%

Surge Energy SGY $0.70 $0.64 9% $0.82 20,000 19,496 3% $0.93 $0.77 21% $0.85 20,000 18,490 8%

TORC Oil & Gas TOG $1.07 $1.18 -9% $1.36 13,225 13,059 1% $1.34 $1.41 -5% $1.30 13,625 13,804 -1%

Trilogy Energy TET $0.83 $0.80 3% $0.94 30,000 30,070 0% $1.29 $1.13 14% $1.03 28,000 27,118 3%

Twin Butte Energy TBE $0.50 $0.48 5% $0.53 18,750 18,745 0% $0.41 $0.39 5% $0.37 18,750 18,534 1%

Vermilion Energy VET $4.79 $4.80 0% $4.95 55,500 55,192 1% $7.12 $6.71 6% $6.24 65,000 62,102 5%

Whitecap Resources WCP $1.99 $1.72 15% $2.09 40,000 39,722 1% $2.35 $1.87 26% $2.17 45,000 43,124 4%

E&P Dividend-Paying Group Average 1% 0% 13% 3%

Notes:

1) All Encana & Talisman figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise. Consensus numbers converted from $CAD to $USD using currency strip pricing; 0.81 USD/CAD for 2015 and 0.815 USD/CAD for 2016.



12/33

Exhibit 11. CIBC vs Consensus – Junior, International, and Oilfield Services Co’s

2015E CFPS 2015E Production 2016E CFPS 2016E Production

Company Ticker C IBC B ase C on se nsu s Differe nce CIBC Strip C IBC Base C on se nsu s Differe nce CIB C Ba se Co nsen sus D iffe ren ce C IBC S trip CIB C B ase Co nse nsus D iffe ren ce

Junior Bellatrix Exploration BXE $0.67 $0.71 -7% $0.73 43,010 43,056 0% $1.06 $1.05 2% $0.86 43,800 44,045 -1%

Birchcliff Energy BIR $1.03 $1.14 -10% $1.21 39,585 39,248 1% $1.77 $1.56 13% $1.57 45,955 42,301 9%

Cequence Energy CQE $0.22 $0.21 7% $0.24 11,500 11,449 0% $0.32 $0.25 28% $0.25 12,630 11,734 8%

Crew Energy CR $0.75 $0.74 2% $0.79 21,875 21,032 4% $1.09 $0.90 21% $0.86 28,450 26,027 9%

DeeThree Exploration DTX $1.41 $1.44 -2% $1.55 12,600 13,132 -4% $1.90 $1.85 2% $1.74 13,815 14,609 -5%

Kelt Exploration KEL $0.62 $0.67 -7% $0.72 20,000 20,034 0% $0.96 $0.96 0% $0.80 23,625 22,244 6%

Legacy Oil & Gas LEG $0.71 $0.81 -12% $0.88 23,300 23,269 0% $1.15 $1.12 3% $1.03 23,000 23,095 0%

NuVista Energy NVA R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Painted Pony Petroleum PPY $0.42 $0.49 -16% $0.42 16,000 16,033 0% $0.94 $0.99 -5% $0.67 22,900 22,575 1%

Paramount Resources POU $1.98 $2.75 -28% $2.51 57,000 56,690 1% $5.45 $4.90 11% $4.53 73,350 70,040 5%

Perpetual Energy PMT $0.09 $0.08 8% $0.11 18,958 19,585 -3% $0.21 $0.20 7% $0.10 17,760 17,732 0%

Raging River Exploration RRX $0.81 $0.84 -3% $0.94 13,500 13,562 0% $1.16 $1.25 -8% $1.08 14,695 15,895 -8%

RMP Energy RMP $0.73 $0.82 -10% $0.82 13,500 13,627 -1% $1.16 $1.01 15% $1.02 16,000 14,919 7%

Seven Generations Energy VII $1.67 $1.69 -1% $1.80 59,315 57,962 2% $3.25 $2.65 23% $2.90 98,825 91,516 8%

Average -6% 0% 9% 3%

InternationalBankers Petroleum BNK $0.56 $0.82 -31% $0.56 19,655 19,763 -1% $0.79 $0.91 -13% $0.56 21,361 20,466 4%

Canacol Energy CNE $0.58 $0.91 -36% $0.60 11,601 11,731 -1% $0.90 $1.58 -43% $0.89 14,493 16,855 -14%

Gran Tierra Energy GTE $0.64 $0.69 -7% $0.62 23,088 19,195 20% $0.84 $0.93 -11% $0.74 21,133 20,297 4%

Pacific Rubiales PRE $4.02 $4.02 0% $3.98 176,018 156,010 13% $5.19 $4.63 12% $4.07 154,012 139,729 10%

Petroamerica Oil PTA $0.02 $0.03 -38% $0.02 4,608 4,539 2% $0.01 $0.05 -74% $0.01 3,011 5,110 -41%

Parex Resources PXT R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

TransGlobe Energy TGL $0.46 $0.46 -2% $0.45 12,975 13,295 -2% $0.78 $0.96 -19% $0.53 12,829 13,872 -8%

Average -19% 5% -25% -7%

Oilfield Services 2015E Revenue 2015E EBITDA 2016E Revenue 2016E EBITDA

Company Ticker CIBC B ase Consensus Difference CIBC B ase Consensus Difference CIBC B ase Consensus Difference CIBC B ase Consensus DifferenceBlack Diamond Group BDI $299 $315 -5% $95 $103 -8% $284 $334 -15% $90 $113 -20%

Calfrac Well Services CFW $1,821 $1,768 3% $87 $104 -16% $2,300 $2,140 7% $251 $243 3%

Canyon Services Group FRC $397 $419 -5% $24 $34 -29% $532 $534 0% $91 $84 8%

Enerflex EFX $1,512 $1,718 -12% $224 $227 -1% $1,654 $1,830 -10% $215 $238 -9%

Ensign Energy Services ESI $1,556 $1,596 -2% $261 $291 -10% $1,768 $1,846 -4% $357 $358 0%

Mullen Group MTL $1,272 $1,323 -4% $203 $226 -10% $1,409 $1,484 -5% $242 $261 -7%

Pason Systems PSI $305 $325 -6% $101 $119 -15% $386 $399 -3% $156 $185 -16%

Precision Drilling PD $1,793 $1,676 7% $535 $503 6% $2,104 $1,934 9% $660 $608 8%

Savanna Energy Services SVY $547 $505 8% $62 $69 -11% $612 $640 -4% $93 $103 -10%

Secure Energy Services SES $2,197 $1,891 16% $183 $182 0% $2,434 $2,159 13% $232 $242 -4%

Total Energy Services TOT $355 $355 0% $55 $57 -3% $365 $406 -10% $69 $77 -10%

Trican Well Service TCW $1,437 $1,725 -17% -$10 $28 -134% $1,687 $2,130 -21% $54 $170 -68%

Trinidad Drilling TDG $427 $600 -29% $134 $144 -7% $522 $694 -25% $203 $189 7%

Western Energy Services WRG $281 $322 -13% $87 $89 -2% $363 $412 -12% $123 $122 1%

Average -4% -17% -6% -8%

Notes:

1) nm = not meanngful, na = not avalable, R = restrcted.


13/33


Exhibit 12. Senior Oil & Gas Producers – Operating Metrics


CIBC Base Price Case

Production Per Share Growth CFPS Growth EPS Growth

2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Cenovus Energy CVE 1% 6% 0% 1% 10% 9% -1% -4% -53% 29% 32% 6% 36% -46% -94% na 131% 8%

Husky Energy HSE 3% 9% 1% 9% 3% 4% 19% 6% -31% 39% 21% 4% 3% -4% -69% na 52% 5%

Imperial Oil IMO 4% 5% 20% 16% 3% -1% -15% 24% -36% 21% 29% -3% -25% 9% -32% na 44% -5%

Suncor Energy SU 2% -5% 6% 4% 14% 4% -1% -1% -26% 18% 28% 8% -1% 1% -54% na 52% 11%

Integrated Average 3% 4% 7% 7% 7% 4% 1% 6% -37% 27% 27% 4% 3% -10% -62% na 70% 5%

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 2% 18% 10% 1% 11% 8% 25% 27% -39% 43% 43% 14% 52% 55% -90% na 118% 20%

Canadian Oil Sands COS -7% -4% 12% 0% 0% 2% -15% -18% -70% 105% 33% 5% -15% -45% -179% na 35% 4%

Encana ECA (US) -2% -8% -22% 2% 11% 17% -25% 13% -58% 93% 66% 29% -20% 24% -149% na 206% 36%

Talisman Energy TLM (US) -12% -1% 2% 10% 4% 2% -28% -3% -16% 14% 11% 2% -360% -109% -2054% na -13% 0%

Tourmaline Oil TOU 30% 39% 41% 25% 26% 16% 67% 64% -4% 56% 57% 17% 866% 178% -77% na 118% 18%

Large Cap Average 2% 9% 9% 8% 10% 9% 5% 17% -38% 62% 42% 13% 104% 21% -510% na 93% 16%

Total Average 2% 7% 8% 8% 9% 7% 3% 12% -37% 46% 35% 9% 59% 7% -311% na 83% 11%

Production (Boe/d) Total Cash Flow/Boe FCF Yield

2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Cenovus Energy CVE 267,508 284,787 285,797 289,644 318,544 345,875 $35.11 $31.56 $22.21 $21.96 $26.63 $26.13 3% 4% 0% -1% 0% 0%

Husky Energy HSE 311,929 340,525 343,588 373,539 383,770 398,601 $45.87 $44.46 $30.28 $38.77 $45.56 $45.52 1% 2% 3% 1% 3% 5%

Imperial Oil IMO 294,439 309,910 371,317 429,154 444,129 438,587 $40.04 $46.99 $25.24 $26.48 $33.14 $32.54 -9% 1% 0% 3% 6% 3%

Suncor Energy SU 562,385 534,578 568,162 591,053 671,094 694,375 $46.85 $48.62 $37.43 $41.05 $44.77 $45.44 6% 4% 0% 2% 5% 6%

Integrated Average $41.97 $42.91 $28.79 $32.07 $37.52 $37.41 0% 3% 1% 1% 4% 3%

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 671,157 790,199 873,469 883,484 980,425 1,059,443 $30.52 $33.24 $18.06 $25.51 $32.85 $34.28 1% -4% -1% 2% 7% 14%

Canadian Oil Sands COS 98,037 94,557 105,444 105,444 105,444 108,016 $38.27 $32.04 $8.64 $17.65 $23.55 $24.01 0% 3% -2% 5% 9% 8%

Encana ECA (US) 516,399 478,358 415,476 434,873 481,181 564,873 $13.41 $15.52 $8.92 $16.81 $25.25 $27.75 2% -22% 0% 2% 5% 8%

Talisman Energy TLM (US) 373,113 370,054 378,636 417,028 435,619 443,374 $14.32 $14.73 $11.47 $11.98 $12.89 $12.95 -10% -7% -15% -13% -9% -9%

Tourmaline Oil TOU 74,796 112,929 165,646 209,083 263,750 306,250 $19.29 $22.54 $15.35 $19.19 $23.90 $24.04 -11% -6% -8% -9% -6% -4%

Large Cap Average $23.16 $23.61 $12.49 $18.23 $23.69 $24.61 -3% -7% -5% -3% 1% 3%

Total Average $31.52 $32.19 $19.73 $24.38 $29.84 $30.30 -2% -3% -3% -1% 2% 3%

Notes:


2) All Encana & Talisman figures are in $USD unless stated otherwise.



14/33

Exhibit 13. Senior Oil & Gas Producers – Operating Metrics


Forward Strip CaseProduction Per Share Growth CFPS Growth EPS Growth

2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Cenovus Energy CVE 1% 6% 0% 2% 10% 9% -1% -4% -39% -2% 15% 6% 36% -46% -34% -21% 64% 7%

Husky Energy HSE 3% 9% 1% 9% 3% 4% 19% 6% -23% 23% 7% 6% 3% -4% -49% 43% 18% 13%

Imperial Oil IMO 4% 5% 20% 16% 3% -1% -15% 24% -33% 1% 15% -1% -25% 9% -27% -6% 23% -2%

Suncor Energy SU 2% -5% 6% 4% 14% 3% -1% -1% -20% 8% 10% 9% -1% 1% -42% 9% 5% 17%

Integrated Average 3% 4% 7% 8% 7% 4% 1% 6% -29% 8% 12% 5% 3% -10% -38% 6% 27% 9%

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 2% 18% 10% 1% 11% 8% 25% 27% -32% 13% 23% 18% 52% 55% -78% 62% 68% 40%

Canadian Oil Sands COS -7% -4% 12% 0% 0% 2% -15% -18% -64% 56% 5% 9% -15% -45% -162% -169% 7% 18%

Encana ECA (US) -2% -8% -22% 2% 11% 17% -25% 13% -55% 36% 50% 37% -20% 24% -138% -114% 1024% 79%Talisman Energy TLM (US) -12% -1% 2% 10% 4% 2% -28% -3% -16% -3% -18% 5% -360% -109% -2045% 83% 29% 13%

Tourmaline Oil TOU 30% 39% 41% 25% 26% 16% 67% 64% -4% 33% 41% 21% 866% 178% -77% 79% 99% 32%

Large Cap Average 2% 9% 9% 8% 10% 9% 5% 17% -34% 27% 20% 18% 104% 21% -500% -12% 245% 37%

Total Average 2% 7% 8% 8% 9% 7% 3% 12% -32% 18% 16% 12% 59% 7% -295% -4% 148% 24%

Production (Boe/d) Total Cash Flow/Boe FCF Yield

2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Cenovus Energy CVE 267,508 284,787 283,627 289,644 318,544 345,875 $35.11 $31.56 $27.36 $21.68 $22.75 $22.14 3% 4% 2% -3% -3% -3%

Husky Energy HSE 311,929 340,525 343,588 373,539 383,770 398,601 $45.87 $44.46 $33.79 $38.27 $39.89 $40.72 1% 2% 5% 0% 1% 2%

Imperial Oil IMO 294,439 309,910 371,317 429,154 444,129 438,587 $40.04 $46.99 $26.36 $23.13 $25.79 $25.84 -9% 1% 0% 2% 3% 1%

Suncor Energy SU 562,385 534,578 568,162 591,053 671,094 694,375 $46.85 $48.62 $40.06 $40.86 $38.96 $40.22 6% 4% 1% 1% 3% 3%

Integrated Average $41.97 $42.91 $31.89 $30.98 $31.85 $32.23 0% 3% 2% 0% 1% 1%

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 671,157 790,199 873,469 883,484 980,425 1,059,443 $30.52 $33.24 $20.02 $22.26 $24.64 $26.69 1% -4% 1% 0% 1% 7%

Canadian Oil Sands COS 98,037 94,557 105,444 105,444 105,444 108,016 $38.27 $32.04 $10.39 $16.21 $17.05 $18.04 0% 3% -1% 4% 5% 4%

Encana ECA (US) 516,399 478,358 415,476 434,873 481,181 564,873 $13.41 $15.52 $9.66 $12.86 $17.53 $20.43 2% -22% 1% -3% -6% -5%

Talisman Energy TLM (US) 373,113 370,054 378,636 417,028 435,619 443,374 $14.32 $14.73 $11.55 $10.11 $7.70 $7.94 -10% -7% -15% -17% -19% -19%

Tourmaline Oil TOU 74,796 112,929 165,646 209,083 263,750 306,250 $19.29 $22.54 $15.28 $16.25 $18.25 $19.00 -11% -6% -8% -12% -12% -10%

Large Cap Average $23.16 $23.61 $13.38 $15.54 $17.03 $18.42 -3% -7% -4% -6% -6% -5%

Total Average $31.52 $32.19 $21.61 $22.40 $23.62 $24.56 -2% -3% -2% -3% -3% -2%

Notes:





15/33

Exhibit 14. Senior Oil & Gas Producers – Valuation



Net Debt/Capitalization Net Debt/Cash Flow Total Payout Ratio

2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Cenovus Energy CVE 20% 31% 25% 31% 34% 36% 0.7x 1.3x 2.1x 2.1x 1.8x 2.0x 104% 103% 137% 143% 129% 125%

Husky Energy HSE 13% 16% 22% 23% 23% 22% 0.6x 0.7x 1.5x 1.2x 1.1x 1.0x 118% 111% 108% 119% 104% 99%

Imperial Oil IMO 23% 23% 23% 19% 12% 8% 1.4x 1.3x 2.1x 1.5x 0.7x 0.5x 189% 97% 114% 75% 59% 78%

Suncor Energy SU 13% 16% 22% 23% 21% 19% 0.7x 0.9x 1.8x 1.6x 1.2x 1.0x 84% 93% 123% 110% 86% 84%

Integrated Average 18% 22% 23% 24% 22% 21% 0.8x 1.0x 1.9x 1.6x 1.2x 1.1x 124% 101% 120% 112% 94% 97%

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 27% 33% 36% 34% 29% 20% 1.3x 1.5x 2.7x 1.9x 1.2x 0.7x 105% 136% 122% 101% 81% 62%

Canadian Oil Sands COS 14% 29% 32% 29% 22% 16% 0.6x 1.7x 6.3x 2.7x 1.5x 1.1x 148% 145% 166% 65% 50% 61%

Encana ECA (US) 47% 42% 37% 36% 31% 25% 1.8x 2.4x 4.4x 2.2x 1.2x 0.8x 103% 175% 111% 98% 91% 88%

Talisman Energy TLM (US) 34% 34% 42% 50% 56% 61% 2.7x 2.2x 3.7x 4.0x 4.1x 4.6x 129% 84% 189% 169% 145% 145%

Tourmaline Oil TOU 20% 21% 25% 32% 33% 32% 1.6x 1.2x 1.7x 1.7x 1.3x 1.2x 250% 169% 179% 157% 122% 112%

Large Cap Average 28% 32% 34% 36% 34% 31% 1.6x 1.8x 3.8x 2.5x 1.9x 1.7x 147% 142% 153% 118% 98% 93%

Total Average 24% 27% 29% 31% 29% 26% 1.3x 1.5x 2.9x 2.1x 1.6x 1.4x 137% 124% 139% 115% 96% 95%

EV/DACF P/EPS P/RNAV

2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E CIBC Base Forward Strip US$40/Bbl,

US$3.00/Mcf

US$50/Bbl,

US$3.50/Mcf

US$60/Bbl,

US$4.00/Mcf

US$70/Bbl,

US$4.50/Mcf

Cenovus Energy CVE 6.7x 5.8x 12.8x 9.7x 7.7x 7.5x 15.1x 27.9x na 42.5x 18.4x 17.0x 97% 120% nmf 339% 192% 140%

Husky Energy HSE 6.1x 5.5x 8.5x 6.3x 5.3x 5.1x 13.0x 13.5x 43.7x 16.6x 10.9x 10.4x 103% 121% nmf 228% 165% 129%

Imperial Oil IMO 9.9x 9.9x 15.5x 12.5x 9.3x 9.3x 16.3x 14.9x 21.8x 17.4x 12.2x 12.7x 125% 192% nmf 477% 255% 177%

Suncor Energy SU 5.5x 6.7x 10.1x 8.7x 6.7x 6.2x 12.9x 12.8x 27.9x 20.1x 13.2x 11.9x 123% 148% nmf 461% 237% 168%

Integrated Average 7.0x 7.0x 11.7x 9.3x 7.3x 7.0x 14.3x 17.3x 31.1x 24.2x 13.7x 13.0x 112% 145% nmf 376% 212% 154%

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 5.8x 6.0x 9.8x 7.0x 4.8x 3.9x 18.3x 11.8x na 19.9x 9.1x 7.6x 89% 131% nmf 281% 157% 112%

Canadian Oil Sands COS 5.0x 7.1x 18.0x 10.9x 7.9x 7.2x 7.5x 13.6x na 18.4x 13.7x 13.1x 101% 163% nmf nmf 346% 176%

Encana ECA (US) 7.2x 5.1x 10.0x 6.0x 3.7x 2.8x 12.9x 10.4x na 19.8x 6.5x 4.8x 76% 150% nmf 487% 132% 76%

Talisman Energy TLM (US) 7.9x 5.9x 7.1x 7.0x 6.8x 7.0x na na na na na na 115% 243% nmf 839% 189% 107%

Tourmaline Oil TOU 15.5x 11.7x 10.9x 7.4x 5.0x 4.4x na 18.3x na 24.7x 11.3x 9.6x 82% 108% 160% 111% 88% 74%

Large Cap Average 8.3x 7.2x 11.1x 7.7x 5.6x 5.0x 12.9x 13.5x na 20.7x 10.1x 8.8x 93% 159% 160% 429% 182% 109%

Total Average 7.7x 7.1x 11.4x 8.4x 6.3x 5.9x 13.7x 15.4x 31.1x 22.4x 11.9x 10.9x 101% 153% 160% 403% 196% 129%

Notes:





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Exhibit 15. Senior Oil & Gas Producers – Valuation


Forward Strip Case

Net Debt/Capitalization Net Debt/Cash Flow Total Payout Ratio

2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Cenovus Energy CVE 20% 31% 24% 32% 38% 44% 0.7x 1.3x 1.5x 2.2x 2.5x 2.9x 104% 103% 118% 166% 155% 152%

Husky Energy HSE 13% 16% 21% 24% 27% 27% 0.6x 0.7x 1.3x 1.3x 1.4x 1.4x 118% 111% 96% 121% 118% 111%

Imperial Oil IMO 23% 23% 22% 20% 16% 15% 1.4x 1.3x 2.0x 1.8x 1.3x 1.3x 189% 97% 109% 86% 75% 99%

Suncor Energy SU 13% 16% 21% 22% 23% 22% 0.7x 0.9x 1.5x 1.5x 1.5x 1.4x 84% 93% 114% 110% 101% 96%

Integrated Average 18% 22% 22% 25% 26% 27% 0.8x 1.0x 1.6x 1.7x 1.7x 1.7x 124% 101% 110% 121% 112% 114%

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 27% 33% 35% 36% 36% 32% 1.3x 1.5x 2.4x 2.3x 1.9x 1.5x 105% 136% 110% 116% 109% 80%

Canadian Oil Sands COS 14% 29% 31% 29% 26% 24% 0.6x 1.7x 5.0x 2.9x 2.5x 2.1x 148% 145% 138% 71% 69% 81%

Encana ECA (US) 47% 42% 36% 39% 41% 41% 1.8x 2.4x 4.0x 3.1x 2.4x 1.9x 103% 175% 102% 128% 131% 119%

Talisman Energy TLM (US) 34% 34% 42% 51% 61% 71% 2.7x 2.2x 3.6x 4.9x 7.6x 8.7x 129% 84% 188% 196% 230% 225%

Tourmaline Oil TOU 20% 21% 25% 35% 40% 43% 1.6x 1.2x 1.8x 2.2x 2.1x 2.2x 250% 169% 179% 185% 159% 141%

Large Cap Average 28% 32% 34% 38% 41% 42% 1.6x 1.8x 3.4x 3.1x 3.3x 3.3x 147% 142% 143% 139% 139% 129%

Total Average 24% 27% 29% 32% 34% 36% 1.3x 1.5x 2.6x 2.5x 2.6x 2.6x 137% 124% 128% 131% 127% 123%

EV/DACF P/EPS P/RNAV

2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E CIBC Base Forward Strip US$40/Bbl,

US$3.00/Mcf

US$50/Bbl,

US$3.50/Mcf

US$60/Bbl,

US$4.00/Mcf

US$70/Bbl,

US$4.50/Mcf

Cenovus Energy CVE 6.7x 5.8x 9.2x 9.8x 9.1x 9.0x 15.1x 27.9x 42.5x 53.8x 32.9x 30.6x 97% 120% nmf 339% 192% 140%

Husky Energy HSE 6.1x 5.5x 7.6x 6.4x 6.3x 6.0x 13.0x 13.5x 26.7x 18.6x 15.7x 13.9x 103% 121% nmf 228% 165% 129%

Imperial Oil IMO 9.9x 9.9x 14.8x 14.5x 12.3x 12.4x 16.3x 14.9x 20.4x 21.7x 17.7x 18.1x 125% 192% nmf 477% 255% 177%

Suncor Energy SU 5.5x 6.7x 9.2x 8.7x 8.0x 7.4x 12.9x 12.8x 22.1x 20.2x 19.3x 16.5x 123% 148% nmf 461% 237% 168%

Integrated Average 7.0x 7.0x 10.2x 9.8x 8.9x 8.7x 14.3x 17.3x 27.9x 28.6x 21.4x 19.8x 112% 145% nmf 376% 212% 154%

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ 5.8x 6.0x 8.8x 8.1x 6.7x 5.5x 18.3x 11.8x na 32.8x 19.5x 13.9x 89% 131% nmf 281% 157% 112%

Canadian Oil Sands COS 5.0x 7.1x 15.1x 12.0x 11.1x 10.1x 7.5x 13.6x na 31.9x 30.0x 25.3x 101% 163% nmf nmf 346% 176%

Encana ECA (US) 7.2x 5.1x 9.3x 7.8x 5.7x 4.4x 12.9x 10.4x na na 17.4x 9.7x 76% 150% nmf 487% 132% 76%

Talisman Energy TLM (US) 7.9x 5.9x 7.1x 8.1x 10.7x 11.2x na na na na na na 115% 243% nmf 839% 189% 107%

Tourmaline Oil TOU 15.5x 11.7x 10.9x 8.9x 6.9x 6.1x NA 18.3x na 45.0x 22.6x 17.1x 82% 108% 160% 111% 88% 74%

Large Cap Average 8.3x 7.2x 10.2x 9.0x 8.2x 7.5x 12.9x 13.5x na 36.6x 22.4x 16.5x 93% 159% 160% 429% 182% 109%

Total Average 7.7x 7.1x 10.2x 9.4x 8.5x 8.0x 13.7x 15.4x 27.9x 32.0x 21.9x 18.1x 101% 153% 160% 403% 196% 129%

Notes:





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Exhibit 16. Senior Oil & Gas Producers – Per Share Metrics


CIBC Base Price Case Forward Strip Case

Cash Flow Per Share ($) Earnings Per Share ($) Cash Flow Per Share ($) Earnings Per Share ($)

2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Cenovus Energy CVE $4.77 $4.59 $2.15 $2.77 $3.64 $3.87 $1.55 $0.84 $0.05 $0.55 $1.27 $1.37 $4.77 $4.59 $2.80 $2.76 $3.18 $3.37 $1.55 $0.84 $0.55 $0.43 $0.71 $0.76

CAGR (%) - -4% -33% -17% -7% -4% - -46% -81% -29% -5% -2% - -4% -23% -17% -10% -7% - -46% -40% -35% -18% -13%

Husky Energy HSE $5.31 $5.62 $3.86 $5.37 $6.49 $6.73 $2.15 $2.07 $0.64 $1.68 $2.55 $2.68 $5.31 $5.62 $4.31 $5.30 $5.68 $6.02 $2.15 $2.07 $1.04 $1.50 $1.77 $2.01

CAGR (%) - 6% -15% 0% 5% 5% - -4% -46% -8% 4% 4% - 6% -10% 0% 2% 3% - -4% -30% - 11% -5% -1%

Imperial Oil IMO $5.06 $6.25 $4.00 $4.85 $6.28 $6.09 $3.32 $3.63 $2.48 $3.11 $4.46 $4.26 $5.06 $6.25 $4.17 $4.23 $4.89 $4.83 $3.32 $3.63 $2.66 $2.49 $3.07 $3.00

CAGR (%) - 24% -11% -1% 6% 4% - 9% -14% -2% 8% 5% - 24% -9% -6% -1% -1% - 9% -11% -9% -2% -2%

Suncor Energy SU $6.26 $6.18 $4.55 $5.35 $6.85 $7.37 $3.13 $3.15 $1.44 $2.00 $3.04 $3.38 $6.26 $6.18 $4.93 $5.31 $5.83 $6.35 $3.13 $3.15 $1.82 $1.99 $2.08 $2.44

CAGR (%) - -1% -15% -5% 2% 3% - 1% -32% -14% -1% 2% - -1% -11% -5% -2% 0% - 1% -24% -14% -10% -5%

Integ rated Average $5.35 $5.66 $3. 64 $4. 58 $5. 81 $6. 01 $2.54 $2.42 $1.15 $1.83 $2.83 $2.92 $5.35 $5.66 $4.05 $4.40 $4.89 $5.14 $2. 54 $2. 42 $1. 52 $1.60 $1.91 $2.05

CAGR (%) Average 6% -18% -5% 2% 2% -5% - 33% -10% 3% 3% 6% -13% -6% -2% -1% -5% - 23% -14% - 7% -4%

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ $6.86 $8.74 $5.35 $7.67 $10.98 $12.55 $2.23 $3.47 $0.35 $2.06 $4.50 $5.39 $6.86 $8.74 $5.93 $6.68 $8.19 $9.65 $2.23 $3.47 $0.77 $1.25 $2.10 $2.94

CAGR (%) - 27% -12% 4% 13% 13% - 55% -60% -3% 19% 19% - 27% -7% -1% 5% 7% - 55% -41% -18% -2% 6%Canadian Oil Sands COS $2.79 $2.28 $0.69 $1.41 $1.87 $1.96 $1.72 $0.95 -$0.75 $0.70 $0.94 $0.98 $2.79 $2.28 $0.83 $1.29 $1.35 $1.47 $1.72 $0.95 -$0.59 $0.40 $0.43 $0.51

CAGR (%) - -18% -50% -20% -10% -7% - -45% n.a. -26% -14% -11% - -18% -46% -23% -17% -12% - -45% n.a. -38% -29% -22%

Encana ECA $3.50 $3.96 $1.65 $3.18 $5.26 $6.78 $1.09 $1.35 -$0.66 $0.71 $2.16 $2.94 $3.50 $3.96 $1.79 $2.43 $3.65 $4.99 $1.09 $1.35 -$0.51 $0.07 $0.80 $1.44

CAGR (%) - 13% -31% -3% 11% 14% - 24% n.a. -13% 19% 22% - 13% -29% -11% 1% 7% - 24% n.a. -60% -7% 6%

Talisman Energy TLM $2.13 $2.07 $1.73 $1.96 $2.18 $2.23 -$0.24 $0.02 -$0.41 -$0.53 -$0.46 -$0.46 $2.13 $2.07 $1.74 $1.69 $1.38 $1.44 -$0.24 $0.02 -$0.40 -$0.74 -$0.96 -$1.08

CAGR (%) - -3% -10% -3% 1% 1% - 109% -30% -30% -18% -14% - -3% -10% -7% -10% -8% - 109% -30% -45% -41% -35%

Tourmaline Oil TOU $2.80 $4.58 $4.39 $6.87 $10.77 $12.58 $0.82 $2.29 $0.53 $1.69 $3.68 $4.35 $2.80 $4.58 $4.38 $5.82 $8.22 $9.94 $0.82 $2.29 $0.52 $0.93 $1.85 $2.44

CAGR (%) - 64% 25% 35% 40% 35% - 178% -20% 27% 45% 39% - 64% 25% 28% 31% 29% - 178% -21% 4% 22% 24%

Large Cap Average $3.61 $4.33 $2. 76 $4. 22 $6. 21 $7. 22 $1.12 $1.62 -$0.19 $0.92 $2.16 $2.64 $3.61 $4.33 $2.93 $3.58 $4.56 $5.50 $1.12 $1.62 -$0.04 $0.38 $0.84 $1.25

CAGR (%) Average 20% -13% 5% 15% 15% 44% na -6% 18% 19% 64% 25% 28% 31% 29% 44% n.a. -30% -7% 2%

Total Average $4.39 $4.92 $3.15 $4.38 $6.03 $6.68 $1.75 $1.97 $0.41 $1.33 $2.46 $2.76 $4.39 $4.92 $3.43 $3.95 $4.71 $5.34 $1.75 $1.97 $0.65 $0.92 $1.32 $1.61

CAGR (%) Average 12% -15% 0% 8% 9% 13% -52% -9% 9% 10% 20% -10% 0% 6% 9% 28% -27% -23% -9% -4%

Notes:





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Exhibit 17. Senior Oil & Gas Producers – Capital Expenditures, Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow



Net Capital Expenditures ($ millions) Cash Flow ($ millions) Free Cash Flow ($ million) - net of A&D

2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Cenovus Energy CVE $3,011 $2,790 $1,885 $2,579 $3,141 $3,292 $3,609 $3,479 $1,795 $2,300 $3,064 $3,277 $343 $688 -$90 -$279 -$77 -$15

Husky Energy HSE $4,978 $4,957 $2,906 $5,128 $5,436 $5,383 $5,222 $5,526 $3,797 $5,286 $6,382 $6,623 $207 $435 $891 $158 $946 $1,240

Imperial Oil IMO $7,731 $4,736 $3,460 $2,681 $2,702 $3,637 $4,303 $5,315 $3,421 $4,148 $5,371 $5,209 -$1,986 -$272 -$39 $1,467 $2,669 $1,573

Suncor Energy SU $6,425 $6,858 $6,472 $6,812 $6,789 $7,057 $9,412 $9,058 $6,548 $7,676 $9,745 $10,324 $2,635 $2,097 $76 $864 $2,956 $3,267

Integrated Average $5,536 $4,835 $3,681 $4,300 $4,517 $4,842 $5,637 $5,845 $3,890 $4,853 $6,141 $6,358 $300 $737 $209 $553 $1,624 $1,516

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ $7,125 $11,581 $6,038 $7,325 $8,578 $7,274 $7,251 $9,202 $5,758 $8,250 $11,755 $13,291 $184 $521 -$281 $924 $3,177 $6,017

Canadian Oil Sands COS $1,342 $930 $457 $346 $355 $478 $1,369 $1,106 $333 $681 $906 $949 $27 $176 -$124 $335 $552 $471

Encana ECA $2,191 $4,987 $1,306 $2,400 $3,800 $4,800 $2,527 $2,967 $1,352 $2,676 $4,435 $5,722 -$185 $441 -$748 $276 $635 $922

Talisman Energy TLM $2,552 $1,513 $3,081 $3,131 $2,981 $3,056 $2,196 $2,143 $1,781 $2,021 $2,242 $2,296 -$981 -$2,384 -$1,300 -$1,110 -$739 -$760

Tourmaline Oil TOU $1,319 $1,567 $1,657 $2,300 $2,800 $3,000 $527 $929 $928 $1,469 $2,301 $2,687 -$1,019 -$170 -$985 -$831 -$499 -$313

Large Cap Average $2,906 $4,116 $2,508 $3,100 $3,703 $3,722 $2,774 $3,269 $2,030 $3,019 $4,328 $4,989 -$395 -$283 -$687 -$81 $625 $1,268

Total Average $4,075 $4,435 $3,029 $3,634 $4,065 $4,220 $4,046 $4,414 $2,857 $3,834 $5,133 $5,598 -$86 $170 -$289 $200 $1,069 $1,378

Forward Strip Case

Net Capital Expenditures ($ millions) Cash Flow ($ millions) Free Cash Flow ($ million) - net of A&D

2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Cenovus Energy CVE $3,011 $2,790 $1,872 $2,889 $3,191 $3,342 $3,609 $3,479 $2,311 $2,272 $2,619 $2,777 $343 $688 $439 -$617 -$572 -$565

Husky Energy HSE $4,978 $4,957 $2,906 $5,128 $5,436 $5,383 $5,222 $5,526 $4,237 $5,217 $5,588 $5,925 $207 $435 $1,331 $89 $152 $542

Imperial Oil IMO $7,731 $4,736 $3,460 $2,681 $2,702 $3,637 $4,303 $5,315 $3,572 $3,622 $4,181 $4,136 -$1,986 -$272 $112 $941 $1,479 $500

Suncor Energy SU $6,425 $6,858 $6,472 $6,812 $6,789 $7,057 $9,412 $9,058 $7,095 $7,627 $8,321 $8,986 $2,635 $2,097 $622 $815 $1,532 $1,929

Integrated Average $5,536 $4,835 $3,678 $4,378 $4,529 $4,855 $5,637 $5,845 $4,304 $4,685 $5,177 $5,456 $300 $737 $626 $307 $648 $601

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ $7,125 $11,581 $6,038 $7,325 $8,578 $7,274 $7,251 $9,202 $6,382 $7,197 $8,819 $10,349 $184 $521 $344 -$129 $240 $3,075

Canadian Oil Sands COS $1,342 $930 $457 $347 $355 $479 $1,369 $1,106 $400 $626 $656 $713 $27 $176 -$56 $279 $301 $234

Encana ECA $2,191 $4,987 $1,306 $2,400 $3,800 $4,800 $2,527 $2,967 $1,464 $2,047 $3,078 $4,211 -$185 $441 -$636 -$353 -$722 -$589

Talisman Energy TLM $2,552 $1,513 $3,081 $3,131 $2,981 $3,056 $2,196 $2,143 $1,791 $1,736 $1,417 $1,483 -$981 -$2,384 -$1,290 -$1,395 -$1,564 -$1,573

Tourmaline Oil TOU $1,319 $1,567 $1,657 $2,300 $2,800 $3,000 $527 $929 $924 $1,244 $1,757 $2,124 -$1,019 -$170 -$989 -$1,056 -$1,043 -$876

Large Cap Average $2,906 $4,116 $2,508 $3,101 $3,703 $3,722 $2,774 $3,269 $2,192 $2,570 $3,145 $3,776 -$395 -$283 -$525 -$531 -$558 $54

Total Average $4,075 $4,435 $3,028 $3,668 $4,070 $4,225 $4,046 $4,414 $3,131 $3,510 $4,048 $4,523 -$86 $170 -$14 -$158 -$22 $297

Notes:





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Exhibit 18. Dividend Paying E&P’s – Investment Ratings and Valuation


Share Total

Price Shares Market Total Senior Conv. Enterprise Debt/CF Total Cur. Drawn ($M) Target Expected

Symbol 04/24/15 High Low O/S (M) Cap ($M) Debt Notes Debs. Value 2014A 2015E 2016E Avail ($M) Current Current 2014A Price Return Rating

ARC ARX $25.10 $33.68 $20.75 337.3 $8,465 $882.7 $991 $0 $9,348 1.1x 1.6x 1.3x $1,040 -$352 0% 0% $30.00 24% SO Kaliel

Baytex BTE $23.75 $49.88 $14.56 204.6 $4,858 $1,665.6 $1,399 $0 $6,524 2.6x 2.7x 2.2x $1,200 $56 5% 55% $25.00 10% SO Kaliel

Bonavista BNP $7.95 $17.73 $5.62 216.1 $1,718 $1,155.4 $885 $0 $2,873 2.1x 2.9x 2.2x $600 $154 26% 26% $10.50 37% SO Kaliel

Bonterra BNE $36.83 $65.99 $32.87 32.2 $1,185 $380.4 $0 $0 $1,565 1.0x 3.5x 2.1x $500 $327 65% 62% $45.00 27% SP Kaliel

Cardinal CJ $16.12 $20.96 $11.58 56.7 $914 $74.6 $0 $0 $988 0.6x 0.8x 0.5x $125 -$1 -1% 38% $17.50 14% SO Gill

Crescent Point CPG $32.10 $48.68 $21.20 446.5 $14,333 $3,458.2 $1,589 $0 $17,791 1.4x 2.1x 2.3x $3,600 $1,261 35% 49% $37.00 24% SO Kaliel

Enerplus ERF $15.17 $27.05 $9.02 205.7 $3,121 $1,165.2 $1,057 $0 $4,286 1.6x 2.0x 2.4x $1,000 -$102 0% 8% $15.00 3% SP Kaliel

Freehold * FRU $17.82 $28.15 $16.14 71.2 $1,335 $136.4 $0 $0 $1,471 1.0x R R R R R R R R R Grayfer

Journey JOY $5.45 $12.25 $3.69 43.5 $237 $106.8 $0 $0 $344 1.1x 2.5x 1.8x $190 $68 36% 41% $5.50 6% SP Gill

Lightstream LTS $1.26 $9.09 $0.64 197.3 $249 $1,624.7 $909 $7 $1,873 2.8x 7.3x 7.6x $1,150 $569 49% 49% $1.15 -9% SU Kaliel

Northern Blizzard NBZ $9.49 $19.00 $6.86 103.4 $981 $399.0 $314 $0 $1,380 1.4x 1.7x 0.8x $530 $67 13% 13% $14.00 58% SO Kaliel

Pengrowth PGF $4.18 $7.78 $2.77 533.4 $2,230 $2,123.3 $1,549 $137 $4,353 4.2x 4.3x 3.8x $1,250 $191 15% 0% $4.50 13% SP Kaliel

Penn West PWT $2.95 $11.00 $1.67 497.3 $1,467 $2,048.0 $1,866 $0 $3,515 2.5x 7.7x 3.2x $1,200 $0 0% 0% $3.00 3% SP Kaliel

Peyto PEY $35.56 $41.95 $29.67 158.7 $5,644 $852.1 $320 $0 $6,496 1.5x 1.8x 1.8x $1,000 $439 44% 61% $42.00 22% SO KalielPrairieSky * PSK $31.68 $42.60 $23.06 149.6 $4,730 -$69.0 $0 $0 $4,661 -0.4x -0.3x -0.5x $150 -$63 -42% -46% $37.00 17% S O Grayfer

Spyglass SGL $0.36 $1.89 $0.26 127.8 $45 $193.8 $0 $0 $239 3.3x 16.1x 15.4x $200 $175 87% 87% $0.25 -30% SU Kaliel

Surge SGY $3.75 $8.82 $2.23 220.1 $825 $519.6 $0 $0 $1,345 2.4x 3.6x 2.6x $675 $491 73% 78% $4.00 15% SP Kaliel

TORC TOG $10.64 $16.33 $6.48 109.8 $1,168 $262.1 $0 $0 $1,430 1.3x 2.5x 2.0x $375 $138 37% 42% $ 11.50 13% SO Gill

Trilogy TET $8.98 $31.64 $5.27 125.9 $1,130 $751.0 $296 $0 $1,881 2.1x 6.9x 4.5x $725 $405 56% 56% $11.00 22% SO ( Sp ec .) Kal ie l

Twin Butte TBE $0.81 $2.50 $0.65 351.8 $285 $353.3 $0 $79 $638 1.7x 1.8x 2.3x $365 $248 68% 68% $1.00 38% SP Kaliel

Vermilion VET $58.75 $78.24 $44.05 107.3 $6,304 $1,289.0 $224 $0 $7,593 1.6x 2.6x 1.6x $1,750 $1,014 58% 68% $69.00 22% SO Kaliel

Whitecap WCP $15.04 $18.70 $9.75 291.1 $4,378 $866.6 $0 $0 $5,244 1.6x 1.4x 0.9x $1,000 $825 82% 76% $18.50 28% SO KalielE&P Total/Average E&P Avg. $59,537 $20,171.6 $11,399 $222 $79,709 1.9x 3.8x 3.1x 37% 44% 17% Kaliel/Gill

Royalty Total/Average * Royalty Avg. $6,065 $67.4 N/A N/A $6,132 0.6x -0.3x -0.5x -42% -46% 17% Grayfer

Dist'n/Dividends Core Risked EV/ EV/P+P

($ per Share) P/CF (x) P+P NAV NAV P/Core P/Risked P/Bluesky Prd'n Reserves2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E 2014A 2015E 2016E 2015 2016 2014A 2015E 2016E 2014A 2015E 2016E ($/sh) ($/sh) NAV NAV NAV ($/boe/d) ($/boe)

ARC ARX $1.20 $1.20 4.8% 4.8% $3.55 $2.13 $2.81 -40.0% 31.9% 7.1x 11.8x 8.9x 7.9x 12.6x 9.6x $8.09 $27.84 310% 90% 47% $76,937 $13.90Baytex BTE $1.20 $1.20 5.1% 5.1% $5.91 $3.26 $3.76 -44.8% 15.3% 4.0x 7.3x 6.3x 6.0x 8.7x 7.3x $12.20 $ 23.85 195% 100% 63% $75,860 $15.12Bonavista BNP $0.42 $0.42 5.3% 5.3% $2.69 $1.82 $2.10 -32.3% 15.3% 3.0x 4.4x 3.8x 4.6x 6.5x 5.4x $6.04 $ 10.53 132% 75% 49% $35,471 $6.73

Bonterra BNE $1.80 $1.80 4.9% 4.9% $6.78 $3.54 $5.35 -47.8% 51.0% 5.4x 10.4x 6.9x 6.2x 12.6x 8.3x $13.78 $43.32 267% 85% 50% $121,805 $19.50

Cardinal CJ $0.84 $0.84 5.2% 5.2% $2.12 $1.53 $2.05 -27.9% 34.1% 7.6x 10.6x 7.9x 10.1x 10.8x 7.9x $11.28 $12.65 143% 127% 114% $88,155 $23.07

Crescent Point CPG $2.76 $2.76 8.6% 8.6% $5.75 $4.06 $4.17 -29.4% 2.8% 5.6x 7.9x 7.7x 6.7x 9.2x 8.9x $13.87 $38.67 232% 83% 47% $116,283 $22.04

Enerplus ERF $0.72 $0.60 4.7% 4.0% $4.20 $2.80 $2.77 -33.3% -1.2% 3.6x 5.4x 5.5x 4.8x 6.8x 7.1x $8.69 $13.68 174% 111% 63% $44,187 $10.56

Freehold * FRU R R R R $1.95 R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R RJourney JOY $0.30 $0.30 5.5% 5.5% $2.56 $1.13 $1.62 -56.1% 44.3% 2.1x 4.8x 3.4x 3.4x 6.6x 4.7x $5.41 $5.90 101% 92% 69% $32,826 $7.04Lightstream LTS $0.00 $0.00 0.0% 0.0% $2.86 $1.05 $0.99 -63.2% -6.3% 0.4x 1.2x 1.3x 2.7x 5.6x 5.8x $0.76 $1.90 166% 66% 25% $58,540 $11.62

Northern Blizzard NBZ $0.96 $0.96 10.1% 10.1% $2.61 $1.54 $2.05 -40.9% 32.8% 3.6x 6.2x 4.6x 4.4x 6.8x 4.6x $11.94 $15.66 80% 61% 51% $63,896 $8.72Pengrowth PGF $0.26 $0.24 6.2% 5.7% $0.96 $0.85 $0.89 -10.8% 4.4% 4.4x 4.9x 4.7x 7.5x 7.4x 7.0x $2.93 $4.75 143% 88% 63% $58,825 $7.82Penn West PWT $0.04 $0.04 1.4% 1.4% $1.89 $0.60 $1.34 -68.4% 123.2% 1.6x 4.9x 2.2x 3.5x 8.6x 4.6x $1.47 $6.00 200% 49% 15% $37,797 $6.27

Peyto PEY $1.32 $1.32 3.7% 3.7% $4.33 $3.91 $4.66 -9.6% 19.3% 8.2x 9.1x 7.6x 9.3x 10.2x 8.8x $12.16 $ 32.84 292% 108% 65% $72,994 $12.22PrairieSky * PSK $1.09 $1.04 3.4% 3.3% $1.22 $1.10 $1.46 -45.7% 32.8% 31.8x 28.7x 21.6x 36.0x 28.6x 21.3x $25.26 n.a. 125% na na $258,555 naSpyglass SGL $0.00 $0.00 0.0% 0.0% $0.46 $0.09 $0.10 -79.9% 3.5% 0.8x 3.8x 3.7x 3.2x 12.0x 11.7x $0.06 $0.40 na 89% 31% $26,577 $4.42

Surge SGY $0.30 $0.30 8.0% 8.0% $1.22 $0.70 $0.93 -43.1% 33.7% 3.1x 5.4x 4.0x 5.1x 7.7x 5.9x $3.43 $4.50 109% 83% 59% $67,242 $12.00TORC TOG $0.54 $0.54 5.1% 5.1% $1.97 $1.07 $1.34 -45.5% 25.3% 5.4x 9.9x 7.9x 7.3x 11.6x 8.9x $6.21 $7.66 171% 139% 67% $111,104 $22.18Trilogy TET $0.00 $0.00 0.0% 0.0% $2.78 $0.83 $1.29 -70.3% 56.0% 3.2x 10.9x 7.0x 4.8x 13.0x 9.2x $3.37 $15.07 266% 60% 16% $62,705 $17.88

Twin Butte TBE $0.12 $0.12 14.8% 14.8% $0.60 $0.50 $0.41 -15.9% -18.0% 1.4x 1.6x 2.0x 2.8x 3.2x 3.9x $1.09 $1.56 75% 52% 42% $34,038 $10.42Vermilion VET $2.58 $2.58 4.4% 4.4% $7.63 $4.79 $7.12 -37.3% 48.8% 7.7x 12.3x 8.2x 8.8x 13.3x 9.0x $48.97 $64.58 120% 91% 55% $136,814 $30.76Whitecap WCP $0.75 $0.75 5.0% 5.0% $2.10 $1.99 $2.35 -5.2% 18.2% 7.2x 7.6x 6.4x 8.4x 8.4x 6.8x $9.21 $ 16.12 163% 93% 65% $131,108 $23.92E&P Total/Average E&P Avg. 5.1% 5.1% -40.1% 26.7% 4.3x 7.0x 5 .5x 5.9x 9.1x 7.3x 167% 87% 53% $72,658 $14.31Royalty Total/Average * Royalty Avg. 3.4% 3.3% -45.7% 32.8% 3 1.8x 28.7x 21.6x 36.0x 28.6x 21.3x 125% N/A N/A $258,555 nm

CIBC Base Assumptions

Price Forecast 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E LT

BRENT (US$/bbl) $108.82 $98.84 $61.00 $80.00 $90.00

WTI (US$/bbl) $97.96 $93.03 $52.50 $70.00 $80.00Ed. Par (C$/bbl) $93.46 $94.62 $57.76 $75.29 $87.06WCS Heavy (C$/bbl) $75.33 $82.32 $48.26 $65.06 $76.24

NYMEX (US$/mcf) $3.72 $4.35 $2.75 $3.50 $4.00

Natural Gas (C$/mcf) $3.18 $4.47 $2.73 $3.53 $4.00F/X (US$/C$) $0.97 $0.91 $0.81 $0.85 $0.85

Per Share Growth

52-Week

EV/DACF (x)

Drawn (%)Analyst

Bank Credit Lines

Cash Yield

Enterprise Value ($M)

($ per Share, basic)

Cash Flow from Operations

Notes: Royalty averages include Freehold and PrairieSky, as denoted by their asterix. PrairieSky's 2014 estimates are in consideration of a 219-day stub year. Shares outstanding, net debt, and convertible debentures arebased on most recent information adjusted for any equity issues or acquisitions. Debt-to-cash flow (D/CF) ratios are based on estimated year-end debt and total cash flow for 2013E and 2014E. Ratio of enterprise value toproved plus probable (P+P) reserves based on YE/14 reserve estimates adjusted for 2015 acquisitions YTD. Ratio of enterprise value to daily production is based on 2015E estimated production. Total debt includes convertibledebentures as debt. Dividends per share represent declared dividends, and are based on the actual shares outstanding at the time of each dividend. Cash flow from operations per share is based on the weighted average ofshares outstanding during the fiscal year. Core NAV is based on a blowdown analysis of P+P reserves, using a 9% after-tax discount rate, and is net of G&A, mgmt. fees, and abandonment costs. Risked NAV = Core NAV +Risked Unbooked Value. Bluesky NAV = Core NAV + Unrisked Unbooked Value. Ratings: SO=Sector Outperformer, SP=Sector Performer, SU=Sector Underperformer, R=Restricted. Source: Company reports; CIBC estimates.

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