Chuy+¬n -¦+¼ 1

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Chuyn 1Hnh vi li xut &Cu trc li sutChuyn 1Hnh vi li xut 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-3 Cc yu t quyt nh cu ti sn Ti s!n"#$ giu c%&' (h!n )nh t*ng ngu+n l$c thu,c s- h.u c) nh/n, 0ao g+1 t2t c! ti s!n. 34inhu5n67v8ng'34inhu5n67v8ngtronggiai 9o:nti;(theotr?ng @uanvAitis!n6h)c.BC'34inhu5n67v8ngcDa 9Eu t> FG so vAi 9Eu t> vng. !i r"# l 1Hc 9, 6hIng chJc chJn vK thu nh5( tr]is^nsng0)n"cungHng&- 1,t 1Hc gi) nh2t 9Tnh. `d a `s b)c9Tnh tr:ng th)i c/n 0_ng gi) v lXi su2t. Ghi`dc`s ,cEutVngv>4t@u),gi)tr)i (hi;u tVng v lXi su2t tr)i sd gi!1. Ghi `d e `s , cung v>4t @u), gi) tr)i (hi;u gi!1 v lXi su2t sd tVng. 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-f AhBn' th(y 2i tr"n' c>n ?@n' li sut #$ thaL 9*i trong cEu tr)i (hi;u' #$ giu c%' 6hi thu nh5( v s$ giu c% cDa ng>]i d/n tVng,9>]ngcEutr)i(hi;usdchuLNndTchvK0]ng cEu tr)i (hi;u dTch chuLNn vK 0]ng cEu tr)i (hi;u dTch chuLNn sang (h!i. 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-10 H' 6hi 1Hcl4inhu5ntVng,9>]ngcungsdchuLNn dTch vK 0]ngcungchuLNndTchsang (h!i. 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-13 1n' t6. tFt cc nh>n t tc 5n' l. -ch chuyDn 0;n' cun' tri 4hiu 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-1P $h(y 2i 0;n' cun' tri 4hiu#$ gia tVng cung tr)i (hi;u l1cho9>]ngcung chuLNn dTch sang (h!i#$ gia tVng cung tr)i (hi;u l1cho9>]ngcung chuLNn dTch sang (h!i 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-15 Ghn Hn' i vIi th(y 2i c!( l=. 4ht 9: v,n'`>Ac 1. 3:1 (h)t 67 v8ng tVng 9>]ng cEu tr)i (hi;u chuLNn dTch sang tr)i`>Ac 1. 3:1 (h)t 67 v8ng tVng 9>]ng cEu tr)i (hi;u chuLNn dTch sang tr)i`>Ac 2. 9>]ng cung tr)i (hi;u chuLNn dTch sang (h!i`>Ac 2. 9>]ng cung tr)i (hi;u chuLNn dTch sang (h!i`>Ac 3. ji) tr)i (hi;u gi!1 v lXi su2t c/n 0_ng thT tr>]ng tVng lAc 3. ji) tr)i (hi;u gi!1 v lXi su2t c/n 0_ng thT tr>]ng tVng l]ng tiKn tQ c/n 0_ng gs a gd ThU thT tr>]ng tr)i (hi;u cvng c/n 0_ng `s a `d 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-20 $r=n' thi c>n ?@n' tin trn th tr0;n'BAil>4ngcung thwalXisu2t gi!1 vK iZBAil>4ngcung thwalXisu2t gi!1 vK iZBAil>4ngcEu thwalXisu2t tVng vK iZBAil>4ngcEu thwalXisu2t tVng vK iZ 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-21 Cu tin tr"n' 9hun' 4h>n t%ch th%ch th(nh 9h"n Trong tr>]ng h4( lXi su2t tVng'o TVng chi (hR c? h,i cDa viQc nJ1 gi.a tiKn tVng xo ji!1 gi!1 l4i nhu5n 67 v8ng cDa tiKnx xv do 9% l>4ng cEu tiKn gi!1. 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-22 $h(y 2i c>n ?@n' li sut -" tc 5n' c!( t>. l* th%ch th(nh 9h"n #$ thaL 9*i trong nhu cEu tiKn' Tnhh0Rn'thunh84#6hi1Hcthunh5( tVnglAc 1. s$ gia tVng thu nh5( hoOc 1Hc gi) c! dTch chuLNn 9>]ng cEu tiKn sang (h!i`>Ac 1. s$ gia tVng thu nh5( hoOc 1Hc gi) c! dTch chuLNn 9>]ng cEu tiKn sang (h!i`>Ac 2. lXi su2t c/n 0_ng tr]ng tVng lAc 2. lXi su2t c/n 0_ng tr]ng tVng l]i 67 v8ng l:1 (h)t sd tVng trong t>?ng lai. Ghis$tVnggi)dwngl:i,s$67v8ngl:1(h)tsd @u/L tr- vK 0. T)c9,ngcDal:1(h)tvznc{nt+nt:i6higi)c! ti;( tic tVng. 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-2[ C6 4hi tW lS tXn' tr0Rn' cun' tin cn' c(" th< li sut cn' th4Y |athRchthanh6ho!n6;tlu5nr_ng1,ts$ giatVngtrongcungtiKnsdl1lXisu2t gi!1' t)c 9,ng thanh 6ho!n }nhh>-ngthunh5(l1cholXisu2ttVng 0-i vU s$ gia tVng cung tiKn l1 tVng ngu+n v=n 9* vo nKn 6inh t;. "9>]ng cEu chuLNn dTch sang (h!i&. 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-2f C6 4hi tW lS tXn' tr0Rn' cun' tin cn' c(" th< li sut cn' th4YJti4 thZ"M siQuHngcDagi)d$9o)n1,ts$giatVng cungtiKn9N9)(Hngv?is$tVnggi)dzn 9;n lXi su2t tVng. T)c 9,ng cDa l:1 (h)t 67 v8ng cho th2L c% s$ tVng lXi su2t 0-i vU s$ gia tVng cung tiKn c% thN l cho ng>]i d/n d$ 9o)n gi) c! tVng l:1 (h)t sd tVng trong t>?ng lai. 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-30 [i'urZ 11#4hn Hn' qu( th;i 'i(n s+ tXn' ln tr"n' tXn' tr0Rn' cun' tin 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-31 $Xn' tr0Rn' tinJ\C7 tW lS hn' nX.M v li sutJ$%n 4hiu 9h" ?=c nh n0Ic 9: h=n L thn'M7 1NOQPCQ11Sources: lederal Seserve' qqq.kederalreserve.govrreleasesrhWrhistrhWhist1.tbt.Cu trc r!i r" v cu trc 9: h=n c!( li sut 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-33 Cu trc r!i r" c!( li Tr)i (hi;u c% c~ng 67 h:n nh>ng c% lXi su2t 6h)c nhau l do'o SDi ro 6hIng thanh to)n n4 "rDi ro 1Oc 9Tnh&o Thanh 6ho!n o hgha vi thu; 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-3P ]^ th 1#)3i tHc tri 4hiu -i h=n7 1N1NPCQ11#ources' `oard ok jovernors ok the lederal Seserve #Lste1, `an6ing and gonetarL #tatistics, 1fP1o1fY0 lederal Seserve qqq.kederalreserve.govrreleasesrh15rdata.ht1. 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-35 Cu trc r!i r" li sut Jti4 thZ"M SDi ro 1Oc 9Tnh' b)c su2t 9N nh (h)t hng 6hIng thN hoOc 6hIng sn sng thanh to)n tiKn lXi hoOc v=n g=c.o Tr)i (hi;u chRnh (hD g 9>4c be1 l rDi ro 1Oc 9Tnh 0_ng 6hIng. BU chRnh (hD c% thN tVng thu;. o 1_ r!i r"' ch]ng cEu tr)i (hi;t FtL chuLNn dTch sang tr)i`>Ac 1' rDi ro v n4 tVng 9>]ng cEu tr)i (hi;t FtL chuLNn dTch sang tr)i`>Ac 2' v 9>]ng cEu tr)i (hi;u 6ho 0:c chuLNn dTch sang (h!i`>Ac 2' v 9>]ng cEu tr)i (hi;u 6ho 0:c chuLNn dTch sang (h!i`>Ac 3' 9iKu nL l1 tVng gi) tr)i (hi;u6ho0:cvl1gi!1gi) tr)i(hi;uctLandlXisu2ttr)i (hi;u6ho0:cgi!1tVnglXisu2t tr)i (hi;u cIng tL do 9% l1 tVng 6ho!n chAc 3' 9iKu nL l1 tVng gi) tr)i (hi;u6ho0:cvl1gi!1gi) tr)i(hi;uctLandlXisu2ttr)i (hi;u6ho0:cgi!1tVnglXisu2t tr)i (hi;u cIng tL do 9% l1 tVng 6ho!n ch?ng ng>]i 1ua 0)n tr]ng tr)i (hi;u F)c ngha vi vK thu; thu nh5( o Thunh5(lXitr)i(hi;uchRnh@uLKn9Ta(h>?ng th>]ng 9>4c 1iMn thu; thu nh5(. 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-3f [i'urZ LdntZrZst (tZs "n \unici4(l (n- $rZ(sury 1"n-s`>Ac 1' 1iMn thu; l cho 9>]ng cEu tr)i (hi;u 9Ta (h>?ng dTch chuLNn sang (h!i`>Ac 1' 1iMn thu; l cho 9>]ng cEu tr)i (hi;u 9Ta (h>?ng dTch chuLNn sang (h!i`>Ac 2' and 9>]ng cEu tr)i (hi;u chRnh (hD dTch chuLNn sang tr)i `>Ac 2' and 9>]ng cEu tr)i (hi;u chRnh (hD dTch chuLNn sang tr)i `>Ac 3' 6;t @u! gi) tr)i (hi;u 9Ta (h>?ng tVng l?ng th2( h?n lXi su2t tr)i (hi;u chRnh (hD`>Ac 3' 6;t @u! gi) tr)i (hi;u 9Ta (h>?ng tVng l?ng th2( h?n lXi su2t tr)i (hi;u chRnh (hD 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-P0 Cu trc 9: h=n li sut Tr)i (hi;u c% c~ng 9Oc 9iN1 vK rDi ro thanh to)n,tRnhlpng,vthu;nh>nglXisu2tc% thN6h)cnhau0-ith]igian9)oh:n6h)c nhau. 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-P1 Cu trc 9: h=n li sut Jti4 thZ"M ]0;n' c"n' li sut' l 9+ thT (h!n )nh 1=i @uan hQ gi.a lXi su2t vAi 67 h:n cDa n%. o >]ng cong lXi su2t h>Ang l]ng cong (hng' lXi s2t ngJn h:n v lXi su2t di h:n nh> nhau. o >]ng cong lXi su2t h>Ang bu=ng' lXi su2t di h:n "long-ter1 rates are 0eloq short-ter1 rates& 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-P2 )* thuyt v cu trc 9: h=n c!( li sut 'ii th%ch cc tr0;n' h34 ny1. 3Xi su2t tr)i (hi;u c% 67 h:n 6h)c nhau sd c~ng 0i;n 9*i theo th]i gian.2. Ghi lXi su2t ngJn h:n th2(, 9>]ng cong lXi su2t c% nhiKu 6h! nVng d=c l]ng cong lXi su2t d=c bu+ng, 9!o ng>4c.3. >]ng cong lXi su2t hEu nh> luIn luIn d=c l]ngh4( 9Eu nh>ng 6hIng gi!i thRch tr>]ng h4( thH 32. 3thuL;t(h/n6hcthTtr>]nggi!ithRch tr>]ngh4(3nh>ng6hInggi!ithRch2 tr>]ng h4( 9Eu.3. 3 thuL;t vK chi (hR thanh 6ho!n 6;t h4( 2 l thuL;t v gi!i thRch 3 tr>]ng h4( 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-PW ]^ th# AhBn' ?in 5n' thZ" th;i 'i(n c!( li sut tri 4hiu ch%nh 4he \f vIi cc 9: h=n 9hc nh(u#ources' lederal Seserve qqq.kederalreserve.govrreleasesrh15rdata.ht1. 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-PY )* thuyt 9: v,n' 3Xi su2t tr)i (hi;u di h:n sd l trung 0Unh cIng cDa lXisu2tngJnh:n118ing>]i67v8ngsdb!Lra trong su=t th]i gian cDa tr)i (hi;u di h:n hh9Eut>6hIngthRchtr)i(hi;uc%1,t679)o h:n h?n l lo:i nhiKu 67. s8 sd 6hIng nJ1 gi. 02t 67l>4ngno,n;ul4inhu5n67v8ngcDan%th2( h?n so vAi tr)i (hi;u c% nhiKu 67 h:n 67 h:n Tr)i chD sd be1 bt tr)i (hi;u c% 67 h:n 6h)c nhau 9N c% s$ thaL th; hon h!o. 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-P[ )* thuyt 9: v,n'# v% -/ 3Xi su2t tr)i (hi;u 67 h:n 1 nV1 l W. hh9Eut>67v8nglXisu2ttr)i(hi;u67 h:n1nV1l[chonV1ti;(theo.ou eb(ecttheinterestrateonaone-Lear0ond to 0e [ nebt Lear. hgha l l4i nhu5n 67 v8ng 1ua 2 tr)i (hi;u 67 h:n 1 nV1 trung 0Unh l "W u [&r2 a Y. hh>v5LlXisu2ttr)i(hi;u67h:n2nV1 (h!i l Y thU nh 9Eu t> 1Ai c% thN 1ua. 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-Pf )* thuyt 9: v,n' Jti4 thZ"M Ghi 9Eu t> 1 it alXisu2thiQnhnhtr)i(hi;u67h:n1 nV1. Ietu1 alXisu2ttr)i(hi;u67h:n1nV167 v8ng nV1 ti;( theo.i2t alXisu2thiQnhnhtr)i(hi;u67h:n2 nV1 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-50 )* thuyt 9: v,n' Jti4 thZ"MLi nhun k vng khi u t 1$ qua 2 nm i vi t!"i #hi$u k h%n 2 nm v& nh& u nm gi' (ut th)i gian u t *1 + i2t,*1 + i2t, -1. 1 + 2 i2t + *i2t,2 / 1. 2 i2t + *i2t,2 0hi*i2t,2 th1 !2t nh34h1 5i nhun k vng 67a vi86 n9m gi'a t!"i #hi$u k h%n 2 nm 5& 2 i2t 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-51 )* thuyt 9: v,n' Jti4 thZ"M:$u nh& u t u t 1$ ;n 9hc `onds ok dikkerent 1aturities are not su0stitutes at all The interest rate kor each 0ond qith a dikkerent 1aturitL is deter1ined 0L the de1and kor and su((lL ok that 0ond Investors have (rekerences kor 0onds ok one 1aturitL over another Ik investors generallL (reker 0onds qith shorter 1aturities that have less interest-rate ris6, then this eb(lains qhL Lield curves usuallL slo(e u(qard "kact 3& 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.5-55 )* thuyt 0( th%ch th(nh 9h"n v 4hn ?_ th(nh 9h"n The interest rate on a long-ter1 0ond qill e@ual an average ok short-ter1 interest rates eb(ected to occur over the like ok the long-ter1 0ond (lus a li@uiditL (re1iu1 that res(onds to su((lL and de1and conditions kor that 0ond `onds ok dikkerent 1aturi