Chương 7LP,TN

8/2/2019 Chng 7LP,TN

1/54

Chng 7LM PHT & THT NGHIP

MI QUAN H GIA LMPHT & THT NGHIP


2/54

Ni dung nghin cu ca chng

1. Lm pht

2. Tht nghip

3. Mi quan h gia lm pht v tht nghip.


3/54

Lm pht

Cc khi nim v lm phtCc ch tiu o lng lm phtT l lm phtCc khi nim c lin quan n lm phtPhn loi lm phtNguyn nhn gy ra lm phtTc ng ca lm phtKhc phc lm pht


4/54

Cc khi nim v lm pht

Lm pht l hintngtingiydtha so vinhu cucnthit.

Xa: Gi trlngtingiy pht hnh > Gitr qu kim NHTW dtr l lm pht.

Nay: M > (PQ/V) l lm pht.

Hay lm pht l hin tngmc gi chungcahng ha dchvtng ln trong mtkhongthigian nhtnh, gi trngtingim.


5/54

Cc ch tiu o lng lm phto lng lm pht: dng ch s gi

C 3 loi ch s gi thng dng:

Ch s gi hng tiu dng (CPI)

Ch s gi sn xut (PPI/WPI)

Ch s gim pht GDP (D%)


6/54

Cc ch tiu o lng lm pht

Ch s gi hng tiu dng (CPI:Consumer Price Index):o lngmc gitrung bnh canhng hng ha dchv thng

thng m mt gia nhin hnh tiu dng khin hnh so vikgc.

Cng thc tnh:

100

1

00

1

0

x

qp

qp

CPIn

i

ii

n

i

iti


7/54


Trong pi

t : Gi snphm i nm t.p

i

0 : Gi snphm i nmgc.qi

0 : S lng snphm loi i m mt gianh tiu dng nmgc.

Gi hng ha tnh CPI thng bao gm

mt s lng hng ha nht nh, tnhnhanh. Vd: VN c 184 loi. Msdnggihng gm 8000 lai.


8/54


Ch s gi hng sn xut (PPI: Producer PriceIndex): o lng mc gi trung bnh ca nhnghng ha dch v bn s, c dng lm u vo

cho snxut,khin hnh so vikgc. Cng thc tnh:

Trong : qi

t: khilng SP loi i csnxutnm t

pit: n gi snphmloi i nm t.

pi

0: n gi snphmloi i nmgc.

n

i

ii

n

i

i

t

i

qp

qp

PPI

1

00

1

0


9/54

Cc ch tiu o lng lm pht Ch s gim pht GDP (D%: GDP Deflator

Rate):olngmc gi trung bnh cattc cchng ha dch v m mt nn kinh t sn xutc,khin hnh so vikgc.

Cng thc tnh:

Trong : qi

t: khilng SP loi i csnxutnm t pi

t: n gi snphmloi i nm t.

pi0

: n gi snphmloi i nmgc.

100100

1

0

1 xGDP

GDPx

qp

pq

Dt

R

t

N

n

i

t

ii

n

i

t

i

t

i


10/54

T l lm pht Tllm pht (If): l tlphntrm gia tng trong

mc gi chung cak ny so viktrc.

Hai cch tnh tllm pht:

Cch 1:

Cch 2:

100

1

1 xCPI

CPICPII

t

ttf

100%

%%

1

1 xD

DDI

t

ttf


11/54

T l lm pht

Vd: CPI nm 2005 / 1994 l 106,5%.

CPI nm 2006 / 1994 l 112,8%.

Tnh Ifcanm 2006/2005?

%91,5

%100*15,106

8,112

%100*1

05/06

05/06

05

06

05/06

I

I

CPI

CPII


12/54

T l lm pht

Nhn xt:

Cch 1:

u: tnh nhanh

Nhc: khng chnh xc, v ch da trn mtgi hng ha chn.

Cch 2:

u: tnh chnh xcNhc: phiihtnmmi c sliuthngk tnh, nn chm.


13/54

Cc khi nim c lin quan n lm pht Gim pht: l hin tngmc gi chungca cc loi

hng ho v dch vgimxung trong mt thi giannhtnh.

Tllm pht lsm. TLLP < 0 Gimlm pht: l hintngxy ra khi tllm pht

ca nm c xt thp hn t l lm pht ca nmtrc.

Tllm pht lsdng. TLLPt< TLLPt-1. Thiu pht: l hintngxy ra khi tllm phtthc

nhhn tllm phtdkin lm snlngthcnhhnsnlngdkin.

TLLPt < TLLPe Y < Ye.


14/54

Phn loi lm pht

Cn c vo kh nng d on:

Lm pht d on

Lm pht ngoi d on.

Cn c vo t l lm pht:

Lm pht va phi,

Lm pht phi mSiu lm pht.


15/54

Lm pht d on Pe (Expected):

L lm pht din ra ngnhdkin.

Lm pht ny khng gy ra nhngtnthtln chonn kinh t v dn chng s lm gimthithica

mnhbng hai cch Th nht: hch ton thm t l lm pht vonhngch tiu c lin quan.

Thhai:nu lm pht donxy ra vi t llm pht cao dn chng s gi vng, ngoi t

mnh.


16/54

Lm pht ngoi d on Pune (unexpected):

Lphntllm pht vt ra ngoi doncamingi.

P = Pe + Pune

Tc ng: gy ra s phn phi li ca ci trongdn chng. Tc ng ny din ra nhth no?


17/54


18/54

Lm pht va phi

Lm pht vaphi: l lm pht mt con s. If 0

khi thtrng lao ng cnbngvn cnhngngitht nghip. Mcthtnghiptlthtnghipt nhin th lm

pht nnh


49/54

3. T l tht nghip t nhin

Ld: cu lao ng; Ld nghchbinvi w.

Ls: cung lao ng thc t;

Ls ngbinvi w. Lf: Lclng lao ng, hay

cung lao ng d kin mi mclng.

LsLf: Nhng ngikhng chpnhn cng vic

EF: t l tht nghip t

nhin.

w

L0

Ld

Ls Lf

E

weF


50/54

4. Bin php hn ch tht nghip

Chnh sch nhm vo cung lao ng

Gimtrcpthtnghip

Gimthu thu nhp

oto v otoli cho nghngChnh sch nhm vo cu lao ng

Trcphocgimthuivi gi nguyn vtliu.

Tomiiukinthunli pht trinsnxut Pht trinmi thnhphn kinh t v tngcng thu

ht utnc ngoi.


51/54

Mi quan h gia lm pht v tht nghip

ng cong Phillips trong ngn hn

P%

U%0

ng congPhillips

P1

U1

P2

U2

ng cong Phillips chothy t l lm pht cao hn

ko theo t l tht nghipthphn v ngcli.Mtnc c th gimtlthtnghipnusn sngtr gi l chpnhntngtllm pht.


52/54


ng cong Phillips trong ngn hn

Trong ngn hn, c s nh i gia lm pht v

thtnghip TN (CSTK + CSTT) mrng AD If

If(CSTK + CSTT) thu hp ADY TN


53/54


ng cong Phillips trong di hn

ng congPhillips di hn

P%

U%0Un

ng Phillips thng ngtitlthtnghipt nhin.

iu c ngha:cui cng

nn kinh ts quay li t lthtnghiptnhin cho dlm pht l bao nhiu, lmpht lun c xu hngtngln trong di hn.V vi s thay i ca tinlng, cung v cu lao ngs c khuynh hngtrvvtr cn bng: LAS = Yp


54/54


ng cong Phillips trong di hn LP (CSTK + CSTT) thu hp TN wCuLTTL cnbng: Un = Ut

Trong di hn, c mt mc tht nghip ti thiu m nnkinh t c thchungc m khng gy ra lm pht.NHTWphi tm ccbin php i ph vilm pht.

C thlidngng cong Phillips ngnhn:

a t l tht nghip xung di t l tht nghip tnhin nhng ci giphitr l lm pht tng ln. Hocphi chu t l tht nghip cao y lm phtxung.

Chương 7LP,TN

Documents

Transcript of Chương 7LP,TN