Chula Vista Market Update 020310

MARKET UPDATEMcMillin Realty's

· Current Real Estate Market Conditions for Single Family Homes· Trends in Pricing· Current Levels of Supply and Demand· Value Metrics

· Report for the week ofFebruary 01, 2010

· Presented by Liz Klaser'sMcMillin Realtywww.mcmillinrealty.com - [email protected]

CHULA VISTA, CA

Powered by Altos Research LLC | www.altosresearch.com | Copyright © 2005-2009 Altos Research LLC

Median List Price

Median Lot Size

26.1

Percent Relisted (reset DOM)

2102

2.5

7 %

Median Number of Bathrooms

145

Inventory of Properties Listed

$ 180

Percent Flip (price increased)

6,501 - 8,000 sqft

Median House Size (sq ft)

$ 379,450

17 %

4.0

Market Action Index

Median Number of Bedrooms

Asking Price Per Square Foot

7 %

Percent of Properties with Price Decrease

Buyer's Advantage

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±+

±+

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Altos Research Value Statistics

Most Expensive Listing

Average Days on Market (DoM)

Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First

This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend

The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" By measuringthe current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30implies a seller's advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to thebuyer.

Supply and Demand

Characteristics per Quartile

6 113217

1332.5 10

3.0

19

145

4.0 153

134

25

8

0.25 - 0.50acre

42

$ 339,000

19

18

153

3.5

4,501 -6,500 sqft

113.0

1466 6,501 -8,000 sqft

153

$ 260,000

4.0

169

4,501 -6,500 sqft$ 413,900

5.0$ 540,000

8

14

2407

Inventory is up and Market Action istrending down recently. While days-on-market appears to be trendinglower, the overall conditions areweakening a bit.

Monday February 1, 2010

McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491

153

1804

2.0

The median list price in CHULA VISTA,CA this week is $379,450. The 612properties have been on the marketfor an average of 145 days.

Most expensive 25% of properties

Upper-middle 25% of properties

Lower-middle 25% of properties

Least expensive 25% of properties

Quartile Median Price Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOMSq. Ft.

No change

Strong upward trend Strong downward trend

Slight upward trend Slight downward trend±+

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CHULA VISTA,CA

City Overview

Least Expensive Listing

Average List Price

Average Age of Listing

612

$ 3,800,000

$ 170,000

$ 430,071

19

Trend Key:

The Market Action Index has beentrending lower for several weekswhile prices have remainedrelatively stable. If inventorycontinues to grow relative todemand however, it is likely that wewill see downward pressure onpricing.

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Single Family Homes in


City OverviewCHULA VISTA,

CA


Median PriceThe market seems to have paused around this plateau. The Market Action Index is a good leading indicator for the durability ofthis trend.

90-day Average7-day Average

Quartile PricesPrices have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in all four quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift(up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move from these current levels.

First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom

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CA


Price per Square FootThe market plateau is seen across the price and value. The price per square foot and median list price have both beenreasonably stagnant. Watch the Market Action Index for persistent changes as a leading indicator before the market moves fromthese levels.


Inventory of Properties Listed for SaleInventory has been climbing lately. Note that rising inventory alone does not signal a weakening market. Look to the MarketAction Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is keeping up with available supply.


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CA


Market Action IndexThe CHULA VISTA market is currently in the Buyer's Advantgae zone (below 30), though not strongly so. The 90-day MarketAction Index stands this week at 26.14 so buyers should expect find reasonable levels of selection.

Buyers/Sellers Cutoff90-day Average

Market Action Index per QuartileNot surprisingly given the overall Market Action Index, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months ofinventory given the current rate of demand for homes in the quartile. Watch the quartile for changes before the overall marketshifts. Often one end of the market (e.g. the low end) will improve and signal a strengthening market before the whole group


Buyers/Sellers Cutoff

Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterized byanalyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer’s Advantagezone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction.

The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates a blance between supply and demand using a statistical function of thecurrent rate of sale versus current inventory.

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CA


Days on MarketThe properties have been on the market for an average of 145 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in thepast 84 or so days.


Days on Market per QuartileIt is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.


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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

29.7


1672

2.0

7 %


148


$ 176


6,501 - 8,000 sqft


$ 285,000

19 %

4.0

Market Action Index



3 %


Buyer's Advantage

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±+

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Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


15 22223

1442.0 48

3.0

6

157

3.0 29

139

5

5

8,001 -10,000 sqft

51

$ 252,900

1

2

29

2.5

6,501 -8,000 sqft

22.5

1294 8,001 -10,000 sqft

29

$ 225,000

4.0

153

6,501 -8,000 sqft$ 313,500

4.0$ 401,250

43

3

1714

Inventory is up and Market Action istrending down recently. While days-on-market appears to be trendinglower, the overall conditions areweakening a bit.



28

1582

2.0

The median list price in CHULA VISTA,CA 91911 this week is $285,000. The115 properties have been on themarket for an average of 148 days.






No change



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CHULA VISTA,CA 91911

Neighborhood Detail


Average List Price


115

$ 1,495,000

$ 170,000

$ 314,426

41

Trend Key:


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Neighborhood DetailCHULA VISTA,

CA 91911


Median PriceWe continue to see prices in this zip code hovering around these current levels, even though they bumped up a bit this week.Look for a persistent up-shift in the Market Action Index before we see prices move significantly from here.


Quartile PricesIn the quartile market segments, we see prices in this zip code have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in allfour quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift (up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move fromthese current levels.


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CA 91911






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CA 91911


Market Action IndexThe CHULA VISTA, 91911 market is currently in the Buyer's Advantgae zone (below 30), though not strongly so. The 90-dayMarket Action Index stands this week at 29.71 so buyers should expect find reasonable levels of selection.


Market Action Index per QuartileThe middle of this zip code (Quartiles 2 and 3) are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the currentlevels of demand. Notice that Quartiles 2 and 3 (the middle of the market) are showing weaker demand than either end.





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CA 91911






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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

24.6


1860

2.5

5 %


138


$ 201


6,501 - 8,000 sqft


$ 365,000

23 %

4.0

Market Action Index



7 %


Buyer's Advantage

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±+

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Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


14 43056

852.5 24

3.0

4

161

3.0 28

140

9

2

0.25 - 0.50acre

60

$ 329,500

4

6

28

3.2

6,501 -8,000 sqft

32.5

1272 6,501 -8,000 sqft

28

$ 250,438

4.0

167

4,501 -6,500 sqft$ 399,000

4.5$ 615,000

22

4

2022

The Market Action Index has beentrending down lately, while inventoryis climbing. These trends imply aweakening market.



28

1650

2.0







No change



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Neighborhood Detail


Average List Price


112

$ 2,999,500

$ 195,000

$ 484,861

33

Trend Key:


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CA 91910


Median PriceThe market for this zip code continues its bounce again this week. We're a long way from the market's high point so watch theMarket Action Index to predict how long this trend will last.


Quartile PricesIn the quartile market segments, we see price for this zip code in general with price stagnation in recent weeks. Quartile 4 isdown, while the rest of the market is basically flat. Look to the Market Action Index to determine if this plateau is the stage fora prolonged price decline.


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CA 91910


Price per Square FootIn a market where prices are rising fairly consistently, price per square foot is essentially flat. This often implies that newhomes coming on the market are pricier, and also larger than older homes. As a result the value one can buy stays the same.




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CA 91910




Market Action Index per QuartileThree of the four quartiles of this zip code are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the currentlevels of demand. Quartile 1 (the highest price group) is showing stronger demand than the others, a Seller's market, as buyersseem to be placing emphasis on the premium homes.





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CA 91910






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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

24.9


2310

2.5

4 %


144


$ 172


4,501 - 6,500 sqft


$ 399,000

14 %

4.0

Market Action Index



7 %


Buyer's Advantage

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±+

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Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


6 03040

1192.5 6

3.0

3

172

3.0 28

127

3

2

6,501 -8,000 sqft

9

$ 364,950

5

3

29

3.5

4,501 -6,500 sqft

02.5

1544 2.5 - 5.0acres

28

$ 295,000

4.0

158

4,501 -6,500 sqft$ 429,500

5.0$ 499,950

6

0

2462

The Market Action Index has beentrending down lately, while inventoryand days-on-market are climbing. Thetrends imply a weakening market.



28

2153

2.5







No change



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Neighborhood Detail


Average List Price


113

$ 685,000

$ 239,580

$ 399,698

8

Trend Key:


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CA 91915


Median PriceWe continue to see prices in this zip code bouncing around this plateau. Look for a persistent up-shift in the Market Action Indexbefore we see prices move from these levels.




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CA 91915






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CA 91915




Market Action Index per QuartileNot surprisingly, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current levels ofdemand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the overall market shifts.





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CA 91915






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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

22.0


3024

3.5

1 %


184


$ 174


8,001 - 10,000 sqft


$ 499,900

12 %

5.0

Market Action Index



5 %


Strong Buyer's

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Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


4 24235

1933.0 6

4.0

6

146

5.0 21

183

2

3

0.50 - 1.0acre

7

$ 465,000

0

2

21

4.5

6,501 -8,000 sqft

13.5

2150 4,501 -6,500 sqft

21

$ 390,000

5.0

213

8,001 -10,000 sqft$ 575,000

5.0$ 670,000

5

1

3617

Demand measured by the MarketAction Index is increasing and days-on-market is trending downward.Even as more properties comeavailable, these are positive trendsfor the market.



20

2656

2.5







No change



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Neighborhood Detail


Average List Price


83

$ 3,800,000

$ 322,000

$ 642,981

6

Trend Key:

Home sales have been exceedingnew inventory for several weeks.Since this is a Buyer's market pricesare not yet moving higher as excessinventory is consumed. However,the as supply and demand trendscontinue, the market moves into theSeller's zone, and we are likely tosee upward pressure on pricing.

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CA 91914


Median PriceAgain this week in this zip code we see a downward notch for prices. Pricing has been weak in recent weeks and versus theirabsolute-high level. At this point, we will be looking for a persistent upward shift in the Market Action Index as a leadingindicator for a trough in prices.




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CA 91914


Price per Square FootDespite recently falling prices, the price per square foot has stayed reasonably flat. This implies that there's a portion of themarket being priced at a premium. You can investigate this condition in the quartile details.




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CA 91914


Market Action IndexThe CHULA VISTA, 91914 market is currently quite strongly in the Buyer's Advantage zone (below 30). The 90-day Market ActionIndex stands at 21.96. With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice.







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CA 91914






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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

26.9


2123

2.5

12 %


133


$ 176


4,501 - 6,500 sqft


$ 379,900

15 %

4.0

Market Action Index



9 %


Buyer's Advantage

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±+

±+

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Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


7 33114

1062.5 8

3.0

5

123

4.0 47

162

6

2

6,501 -8,000 sqft

8

$ 350,000

4

5

48

3.5

4,501 -6,500 sqft

33.0

1613 Less than4,500 sqft

47

$ 310,000

4.0

139

4,501 -6,500 sqft$ 410,850

5.0$ 495,000

8

2

2500

The Market Action Index has beentrending down lately, while inventoryand days-on-market are climbing. Thetrends imply a weakening market.



47

1901

2.5







No change



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Neighborhood Detail


Average List Price


189

$ 875,000

$ 191,000

$ 392,627

10

Trend Key:


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CA 91913


Median PriceWe continue to see prices in this zip code bouncing around this plateau. Look for a persistent up-shift in the Market Action Indexbefore we see prices move from these levels.




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CA 91913






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CA 91913









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CA 91913






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Chula Vista Market Update 020310

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