Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
Transcript of Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
1/38
Sustainable, CO 2-neutral
Source of Energy
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
2/38
http://www.energycommission.org/
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
3/38
In the last 100 years, the Earth warmedup by ~1 C
100 years is nothing by geological time scales!
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
4/38
Temperature over the last 420,000 yearsSource: Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
5/38
Shouldntwe beworriedabout anew iceage?
ForgetaboutGlobalwarming!
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
6/38
Previous ice ages arethought to be caused bychanges in the orbit andinclination of the Earth.
but there is somethingnew happening!
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
7/38
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
8/38Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future.
We continue to refine the predictions of Global Warming
The great Americanphilosopher of the 20 th century
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
9/38
Climate change dueto natural causes(solar variations,volcanoes, etc.)
Climate change dueto natural causes
and humangeneratedgreenhouse gases
Can we predict the past?
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
10/38
CO 2 Concentration, Temperature, and Sea LevelContinue to Rise Long after Emissions are Reduced
100 years
1,000 years
Sea-level rise due to icemelting: severalmillennia
Sea-level rise due to
thermal expansion:centuries to millennia
Temperature stabilization:a few centuries
CO 2 stabilization:100 to 300 years
CO 2 emissions
CO 2 emissions peak0 to 100 years
Today
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
11/38
The possibility / likelihood of global warming
is disturbing
but there may be a bigger problem!
Chu
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
12/38
Consumption of Energy Increased by 85%Between 1970 and 1999
20202015201020051999199519901985198019751970
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Quadrillion Btu
History Projections
By 2020, Consumption will Triple
Chu
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
13/38
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
14/38
Global Energy Consumption, 1998
Total: 12.8 TW U.S.: 3.3 TW (99 Quads)
4.52
2.72.96
0.286
1.21
0.286
0
1
2
3
4
5
TW
Oil Coal Biomass
Gas HydroRenewable
How long will our fossil fuels last?
Courtesy Nate Lewis
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
15/38
M. King Hubbert Predicted in 1959 that U.S.Domestic Production would Peak in 1970 .
Chu
Production in the Lower 48 StatesPeak discovery: 1930Peak production: 1972
Discov
eries, Gb/a
Production, Gb/a
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
16/38
World production of oil and gas is predicted to peakwithin 10 - 40 years
2010
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
17/38
Energy conservation and
efficiency can buy time(a factor of ~2)
but the fundamental problem remains
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
18/38
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
19/38
EnergyCosts
0
24
6
8
1 0
1 2
1 4
$ /G
C o a l O il B io m a s s E
B r a z
i lE
u r o p e
$0.05/kW-hr
www.undp.org/seed/eap/activities/wea
Courtesy Nate Lewis
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
20/38
Potential Sources of Energy whenFossil Fuels Run Out
Nuclear Fission
Magnetic PlasmaConfinement,Inertial Fusion
Waste &Nuclear Proliferation
Nuclear Fusion
10 TW = 10,000 new 1GW reactors: i.e., a new
reactor every other day for the next 50 years
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
21/38
Solar Energy
We do not know how to store electricalenergy on a massive scale
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
22/38
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
23/38
Nature has found a way to convert
sunlight, CO 2, water and nutrientsinto chemical energy
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
24/38
Photosynthesis Photovoltaic andelectricity to
chemical
H O
O H
2
22
sc M
e
sc
e
M
CO
Sugar
H O
O
2
2
2
Solar to Chemical Energy
Semiconductor/liquid junctions
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
25/38
Energy gained in corn ethanol production
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
26/38
Total CO 2 emissions
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
27/38
From Summary of Renewable Fuel Options(NCEP)
Unlike corn ethanol, cellulosic ethanol haspotential to achieve near-zero net carbonemissions.
Cultivation of cellulosic feedstocks requiresvery low energy inputs and, if sustainablymanaged, the carbon released during fuelcombustion is reabsorbed by the growth of new feedstocks.
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
28/38
~ 450 M acres of land under cultivation in the US
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
29/38
Land with Crop Production Potential, 1990: 2.45x10 13 m2
Cultivated Land, 1990: 0.897 x10 13 m2
Additional Land needed to support 9 billion people:
0.416x10 13 m2
Remaining land available for biomass energy: 1.28x10 13 m2
Courtesy Nate Lewis
Biomass resources estimate
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
30/38
Photosynthesis:the creation of chemical energy from CO 2,
sunlight, water and nutrients
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
31/38
Engineering microbes to produce drugs
Malaria is caused by asingle-cell protozoan Transmitted by Anopheles
mosquito
Destroys red blood cells 1.5-2.7 million people die of
malaria every year 90% of the victims are
children 40% of the worlds
population is at risk
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
32/38
Artemisinin-based drugs
The current cost for an artemisinin-based drug is approximately $2.25. Artemisinin generally adds $1.00-1.50 to the
cost for drugs Most developing countries spend less than
$4/person/year on health care
As many as 10-12 treatments areneeded for each person annually
World Health Organization estimatesthat 700 tons will be needed annually
S h i Bi l
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
33/38
Synthetic Biology: Production of artemisinin in bacteria Jay Keasling
Identify thebiosynthesispathways in A. annua
Can synthetic organisms beengineered to produce
methane from sunlight, CO 2,
water and sustainable sourcesof nutrients?
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
34/38
Hybrid Devices
Integration of many disciplines will be needed
New ideas
Chemical Fuel From Solar Energy
ComputingSciences
MaterialsScience
Physics,Chemistry
LifeSciences
Nanoscience
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
35/38
A solution may lie at the interface of biologyand
the physical sciences at the nano-scale
A diversified portfolio of investments is needed
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
36/38
National Concerns
Sustainable, CO 2 neutral energy
which is intimately tied toenergy security
1) National security
3) The environment
2) Economic prosperity
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
37/38
-
8/9/2019 Chu Solar to Chem Energy 3-28-05
38/38
Lawrence Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley
Who will keep the lights on after we run out of fossil fuel?