CHRISTO 2050: Rewrapping Gotham

Laurie Kerr, FAIA, LEED AP Director of Policy, Urban Green

Facades + April 16, 2015

Will we have to re-wrap New York to achieve Mayor de Blasio’s target

of 80% carbon reductions by 2050?

NYC’S CARBON EMISSIONS ARE DOMINATED BY ITS BUILDINGS

70% OF NYC’S GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS COME FROM ENERGY USED IN BUILDINGS

ACHIEVING 80 X 50 WILL REQUIRE HUGE ENERGY EFFICIENCY UPGRADES*

NEW CONSTRUCTION

EXISTING BUILDINGS

FUEL & POWER

65% LESS ENERGY THAN BUILDINGS BUILT TODAY, BY 2025 OR 2030

45% LESS ENERGY THAN THEY DO NOW, ON AVERAGE

•  PHASE OUT OIL

•  ELECTRIFICATION OF 50% OF HEAT AND HOT WATER

•  (GRID TO BECOME MUCH CLEANER)

* This represents one possible scenario; one could, for example, relax the requirements on new construction, but then existing buildings would need to become even more efficient.

IMPROVING BUILDING ENVELOPE PERFORMANCE WILL BE CRITICAL

41% OF NYC’S CARBON FROM BUILDINGS IS IMPACTED BY BUILDING ENVELOPES (HEATING + COOLING)

63% IF LIGHTING IS INCLUDED

NEW CONSTRUCTION: ENERGY CODE SHIFT BY 2025 OR 2030

0  

50  

100  

150  

200  

250  

300  

Existing code and median

Commercial Office Multifamily Residential Code until Jan. 2015

Code until Jan. 2015

WHAT WILL THIS MEAN FOR BUILDING ENVELOPES?

HIGHRISES

SMALLER BUILDINGS

•  NEED MODELS ACCEPTABLE TO R.E. INDUSTRY

•  NEED THE “2030 STANDARD”

•  WILL THERE BE A BIFURCATION BETWEEN RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL?

•  RESIDENTIAL: CLOSE TO A PASSIVE HOUSE-TYPE STRATEGY; NEED TO SOLVE TECHNICAL AND COST BARRIERS (LARGER, THICKER PANELS; THERMAL BRIDGING, ETC.)

•  COMMERCIAL: HEAT DOMINATED, SO WHAT IS THE ENVELOPE STRATEGY?

•  MORE ENVELOPE DOMINATED

•  MOVE TOWARD PASSIVE HOUSE-TYPE STANDARDS?

BUT NYC’S EXISTING BUILDINGS REPRESENT THE LARGER CHALLENGE

BY 2050, ROUGHLY 80% OF THE BUILDINGS IN NYC WILL BE BUILDINGS WE ALREADY HAVE TODAY* *AND THERE ARE A MILLION OF THEM!

EXISTING BUILDINGS HAVE TO REDUCE 45% ON AVERAGE

0  

50  

100  

150  

200  

250  

300  

Existing code and median

Commercial Office Multifamily Residential Code until Jan. 2015

Code until Jan. 2015

THIS IS ALSO AN UPRECEDENTED OPPORTUNITY FOR THE INDUSTRY

5.4 BILLION SQUARE FEET

TO BE RETROFITTED

A QUARTILE APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM

.4

.25

.2

.15

Fraction of sector energy used by each quartile

.4

Achieving a 45% sector wide reduction with a stepped quartile approach

60%

45%

.25

.2

.15 35%

20% .15

.16 .14 .13 .12

Approx. 60% of sector energy is used in the bottom two quartiles

Approx. 78% of sector savings comes from the bottom two quartiles

WHAT HAPPENS TO ENVELOPES IN EACH QUARTILE?

60%

45%

.15 35%

20%

4 QUARTIL

E

TH 3 QUARTIL

E

2 QUARTIL

E

1 QUARTIL

E

ST ND RD

4

1

2

3

VERY DEEP ENERGY RETROFITS:

•  RE-WRAPPING/ INSULATION •  NEW WINDOWS/ SEALING •  SOME TEAR-DOWN/ REBUILD?

DEEP ENERGY RETROFITS: •  SOME RE-WRAPPING/

INSULATION •  NEW WINDOWS/ SEALING

QUARTILE

STANDARD RETROFIT •  ROOF INSULATION •  NEW WINDOWS/ SEALING

MODEST RETROFIT •  SEALING •  (MOSTLY E. SYSTEMS/

OPERATIONAL IMPROVEMENTS)

≈ 75% OF NYC’S BUILDING STOCK WILL NEED ENVELOPE UPGRADES

4

1

2

3

VERY DEEP ENERGY RETROFITS:

•  RE-WRAPPING/ INSULATION •  NEW WINDOWS/ SEALING •  SOME TEAR-DOWN/ REBUILD?

DEEP ENERGY RETROFITS: •  SOME RE-WRAPPING/

INSULATION •  NEW WINDOWS/ SEALING

QUARTILE

STANDARD RETROFIT •  ROOF INSULATION •  NEW WINDOWS/ SEALING

MODEST RETROFIT •  SEALING •  (MOSTLY E. SYSTEMS/

OPERATIONAL IMPROVEMENTS)

NEED COST EFFECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR DIFFERENT TYPES

SCALING ISSUES

FAÇADE TYPES

•  COST EFFECTIVE, DURABLE SOLUTIONS

•  COORDINATE WITH LL87 AND WINDOW REPLACEMENT CYCLES (OVER 35 YEARS)

•  STRATEGIES FOR MINIMAL DISRUPTION

•  TRAINED WORKFORCE

•  SCALING MOST DIFFICULT FOR 1-4 FAMILIES: REPRESENT 850,000 PROPERTIES

•  OLDER CURTAIN WALLS: DETAILING/ FEASIBILITY?

•  SIMPLE BRICK FACADES: WRAPPING

•  DECORATIVE MASONRY FACADES: INTERIOR INSULATION

•  ETC.

If we do our jobs, much of New York will look different

in 2050