Chris Molanphy EMP Pop Con 2014 Portable Jukebox (25Apr14)
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CHARTING THE PORTABLE JUKEBOX How technology and mobility have rewritten the rules for how popular music is consumed By Chris Molanphy Experience Music Project – EMP Pop Conference 2014 25 April 2014
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ABSTRACT “Charting the Portable Jukebox: How Mobile Technologies Have Rewritten the Rules for Pop Music—And What Chart History Tells Us About the Future of How We Listen” When we talk about why songs are hits or why the industry chases certain sounds, we often frame the question in terms of musical trends at best, or base business interests at worst. But format and technology—more benign (even passive) cultural forces—have a greater impact on what becomes a hit than we often realize. It’s a technological tail wagging the cultural dog. Billboard’s Hot 100 formula has three major components: sales, airplay, and streaming. Each has been rocked by new mobile technology in the last decade, reshaping not just how we consume music but how artists and labels present it: Sales: The prime mover in song sales is iTunes, which now provides the industry with a greater proportion of its revenue than any single source. Features Apple dreamed up solely to improve its iTunes interface and lock in mobile consumers—including a la carte downloads and the “Complete My Album” feature—have scrambled label release strategies and led artists to rethink how their albums are received. Streaming: On-demand streams didn’t exist, in essence, until the last decade. But YouTube, fortified by the music-oriented Vevo, has supercharged the model. The advent of the smartphone has only multiplied views, making YouTube—more than Spotify—the Millennials’ portable jukebox. And with video views now counting for the Hot 100, artists have only grown more committed to musical (and visual) self-branding. Airplay: Finally, radio has been rocked by a mobile technology with far-reaching consequences—but it’s a technology experienced by only a few thousand of its consumers: the Portable People Meter. The wearable ratings-measuring device has improved audience measurement but also brutalized certain genres and formats. It may even be responsible for sustaining Top 40 radio’s surprising late-00s comeback. I’ll walk through all three legs of the Hot 100 stool and their technological changes; talk about what artists, songs and genres have been boosted on the charts by each mobile movement; and see whether past format-driven chart periods—the cassette era (1983–91) wrought by the Walkman and the CD era (1992–2003) fueled by the skip button—offer any guidance into what comes next.
Transcript of Chris Molanphy EMP Pop Con 2014 Portable Jukebox (25Apr14)
CHARTING THE PORTABLE JUKEBOXHow technology and mobility have rewritten the rules for how popular music is consumedBy Chris Molanphy
Experience Music Project – EMP Pop Conference 2014
25 April 2014
Music and format: What defined the 1980s?
Vinyl? Compact discs?
Cassettes: The unsexy format that defined the ’80s
1988: Cassettes peak at $6.1B –
59.1% of total US music shipments
Cassette era (1983–91)
Average no. of Top 10 hits per album, 5.4; average single peak, 3.23
Cassette era (1983–91): Every single a Top 10 hit
3 Top 10s(+1 Airplay hit)
Peaks: 1 • 1 • 8 (28A)
Av. peak: 3
4 Top 10s(+1 R&B hit)
Peaks: 3 • 1 • 1 • 1 (10R)
Av. peak: 2
4 Top 10sPeaks: 1 • 1 • 1 • 1
Av. peak: 1
7 Top 10sPeaks: 1 • 2 • 1 • 4 • 2 • 1 • 1
Av. peak: 2
7 Top 10sPeaks: 2 • 1 • 1 • 5 • 7 • 10 • 4
Av. peak: 4
7 Top 10sPeaks: 2 • 7 • 9 • 6 • 5 • 9 • 6
Av. peak: 66 Top
10sPeaks: 2 • 1 • 1 • 1 • 1 • 5
Av. peak: 3
5 Top 10sPeaks: 8 • 1 • 3 •
3 • 7
Av. peak: 4
Average no. of Top 10 hits per album, 2.6; average single peak, 8.37
CD era (1992–2003): one-fourth of singles miss the Top 10 entirely—and fewer hits per album
5 Top 10s (C)Peaks: 3 • 1 • 1 •
3 • 1
Av. peak: 2 (C)
3 Top 10sPeaks: 1 • 3 • 4
Av. peak: 3
2 Top 10s13A•15A•65A • 4 • 6
• 3AAv. peak: 5 (17)
3 Top 10sPeaks: 2 • 1 • 4 •
20Av. peak: 7
3 Top 10sPeaks: 10 • 9 • 6
• 14Av. peak: 10
1 Top 10Peak: 1
Av. peak: 1
3 Top 10sPeaks: 1 • 1 • 3 •
76Av. peak: 20
2 Top 10sPeaks: 6 • 25 • 6
• 30Av. peak: 17
3 Top 10sPeaks: 4 • 1 • 5
Av. peak: 3
2 Top 10sPeaks: 2 • 4 • 15
• 14Av. peak: 9
3 Top 10sPeaks: 1 • 4 • 4 •
31Av. peak: 10
The Billboard Hot 100 in the 21st century:Technology is the tail that wags the content dog
Sales: Shift to digital reinvents the means to a hit single
Airplay: How the Portable People Meter has changed radio’s metabolism
Streaming: The YouTube effect and the accidental hit
The Billboard Hot 100 in the 21st century:Technology is the tail that wags the content dog
Sales: Shift to digital reinvents the means to a hit single
Airplay: How the Portable People Meter has changed radio’s metabolism
Streaming: The YouTube effect and the accidental hit
Apple’s greatest music innovation/scourge: The unbundling of the album
Billboard, 12 February 2005
The album cut: a relic of the pre-digital age
Hot 100 peak:
No. 3, 2005
First digital-era album cut–turned–hit
Album cuts–turned–hits of the pre-digital era
Hot 100 peak:
No. 11980
Hot 100 peak:
No. 12002
Hot 100 peak:
No. 12001
Hot 100 peak:
No. 11965
Focus-grouped chart-toppers of the iTunes era
Third single from 21No. 1, 2012
Third single from PrismNo. 1, 2014
Apple 2007: year of iPhone, first iOS Music Store… and, more importantly, Complete My Album
Chart effects of Complete My Album: Why wait for album release date before fans sample?
From Tha Carter III
Nos. 1, 6, 10
All 2008 tracks released ahead of their respective albums
From Paper Trail
Nos. 1, 1From I Am…Sasha Fierce
Nos. 3, 1
Taylor Swift: queen of the digital sales model
5 prerelease singles
“Change” No. 10“Love Story” No. 4“Fearless” No. 9“You’re Not Sorry” No. 11“You Belong with Me” No. 2
4 prerelease singles
“Mine” No. 3“Speak Now” No. 8“Back to December” No. 6“Mean” No. 11
4 prerelease singles
“We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together”No. 1“Begin Again” No. 7“Red” No. 6“I Knew You Were Trouble”No. 2
Debut week sales:
592,000
Debut week sales:
1,047,000
Debut week sales:
1,280,000
2008 2010 2012
The Billboard Hot 100 in the 21st century:Technology is the tail that wags the content dog
Sales: Shift to digital reinvents the means to a hit single
Airplay: How the Portable People Meter has changed radio’s metabolism
Streaming: The YouTube effect and the accidental hit
PPM: ghastly gadget, radio ratings revolution
PPM loves “turbo-pop”; ballads are a challenge
PPM-friendly turbo-pop/”surge” hits
Ballad hits – had to get past radio’s PPM bias
The New Power Rotation: Spins of big hits doubled in a decade; one-week audience record has been reset
2013 One-week radio record set
228.9 millionAll-format audience impressions(week of 31 August 2013)
2005 One-week radio record set
212.2 millionAll-format audience impressions(week of 9 July 2005)
The Billboard Hot 100 in the 21st century:Technology is the tail that wags the content dog
Sales: Shift to digital reinvents the means to a hit single
Airplay: How the Portable People Meter has changed radio’s metabolism
Streaming: The YouTube effect and the accidental hit
The Vevo–YouTube duopoly: The industry finally monetizes music videos
YouTube on the Hot 100: Good for memes, but are they “hits”?
The Miley model: Video titillation leads to radio dominance…
July 2013No. 2
September 2013No. 1
First-week US video
streams:40
million
…plus an assist from a devoted fan
December 2013Returns to No. 1
YouTube 2014: Still generating random hits
Charts and technology: The big get bigger…
Sales: Shift to digital has reinvented the means to a hit single
Airplay: How the Portable People Meter has changed radio’s metabolism
Streaming: The YouTube effect
…but left-field routes to success are still possible!
