1. U.S.-China Economic & SecurityReview Commission Commissioner George Becker Commissioner Michael Wessel Presentation to the AFL-CIO Las Vegas, Nevada March, 2005

2. Commission Mandate

Established as part of Congressional PNTR deal.

Monitors both economic and national security dimensions of US-China relationship.

Defines national security as covering economic security as well.

Reports annually to Congress (Unclassified and Classified).

3. Recent Commission Activities

Since Jan 2004, held 11 public hearings in DC and around the country.

Heard from senators, congressmen, business leaders, labor leaders, state & local government officials, academics and other experts, public at large.

Economic hearings focused on Chinas:

• WTO compliance

• Exchange rate policies

• Impact on the US manufacturing base

• Presence in global capital markets

• Impact on jobs and standard-of-living

Released 2004 bi-partisan annual report.

4. Commissioned Research

McMillion Study:Trade flows highlighting deficit in Advanced Technology Product (ATP)

Bronfenbrenner & Luce Study: Accelerating outsourcing and offshoring of jobs to China, India

• 406,000 jobs shifted out of US in 2004

• Companies moving production offshore tend to be large, publicly held, highly profitable and well established

EPI Study:1.5 million jobs lost to China deficit since 1989losses accelerating dramatically since PNTR

• EPI estimates that each $1 billion in trade deficits equals 12,400 jobs lost

5. Key Commission Policy Findings

The U.S.-China relationship has been mismanaged and as currently structured is doing short- and long-term damage to the US. Economy.

Our relationship with China is of such scale that the course and character of globalization will be substantially influenced by how we manage it.

6.

2004 overall goods trade deficit:$666.2 billion( 21.7% )

Deficit with China:$162 billion( 30.9% )

Overall ATP deficit:$37 billion( 38.1% )

ATP deficit with China:$36.3 billion( 72% )

Trade accounted for a huge drag on fourth-quarter growth, subtracting $49 billion, or 1.7 percentage points from GDP growth. Business Week, January 28, 2005

Major Trade Developments in 2004 7. 2004 U.S. Trade Balance by Region Not Seasonally Adjusted Deficits with every region; China the largest Balance ($ billions) % of Total Total(census basis) - $666.2 100.0% North America - $110.8 16.6% Canada -$65.8 9.9% Mexico -$45.1 6.8% Western Europe - $114.1 17.1% Euro area -$82.9 12.4 % Pacific Rim - $282.5 42.4% Japan -$75.2 11.3% China -$162 24.3% OPEC -$71.9 10.8% Rest of the World -$86.9 13.0% 8. Import-Export Ratios: China is our most lopsided major manufacturing trade relationship Country 2001 2002 2003 2004 (Jan-Nov) China 5.32 5.66 5.36 5.67 Canada 1.33 1.30 1.32 1.35 Mexico 1.29 1.38 1.42 1.41 EU-15 1.38 1.57 1.63 1.62 Japan 2.20 2.20 2.27 2.38 9. 10. 11. Exchange Rates (FX per $) Other Countries Have Adjusted; China Has NOT Jan. 2, 2002 Feb. 17, 2005 % Change Euro 1.11 0.77 30.6% Japanese yen 132.02 102.59 20% Canadian dollar 1.60 1.23 23.1% Chinese yuan 8.28 8.28 0.0% 12. China Trade Deficit Factors

Under-valuation (15-40%) of Chinas currency

• As much as 40% tax on our exports to China

• 40% subsidy to their products coming here

Unfair Chinese competition

• Denial of worker rights

• Failure to implement WTO obligations

• Creation of new trade barriers

• Subsidized credit hundreds of billions of dollars of non-performing loans

• Dual pricing of energy, other subsidies

• Intellectual property rights violations

• Offsets, targeting of investment

• Corruption

Domestic consumption spending boom

Corporate America requiring pricing to theChina Price

Roughly 55% of U.S. imports from China come from foreign multinational firms operating in China

13. "The China Price" Even manufacturers that have weathered past import waves are being swamped by China's combo of low prices and high tech 14. Steel

Chinas dramatic growth is driving up the price of inputs.

China is adding capacity year-after-year has plans to become a net exporter of steel and independent of imports by 2010.

Traditional steel exports to China will be forced to find other markets.

15. Autos and Auto Parts

Defined as a backbone industry by China.

Plans to become worlds largest auto producer in 5 years.

Plans to export $100 billion in auto products by 2010.

Plans to produce 6 million carsup 20% from last year (will pass Germany as worlds 3rd largest auto producer).

By 2007, capacity is expected to exceed demand by roughly 3 million cars a year the equivalent of 15-20 average-sized auto plants.

U.S. companies are investing billions in China.

• Delphi has invested $500 million, with 14 facilities and will soon open a research center with the most advanced technology

Big Three teaching Chinese companies how to become world class producersfacing copy-cat production.

Average auto worker in Shanghai makes roughly $1.50 an hour in wages and benefits only about 5% of what a U.S. auto worker makes.

Unlike Japan in the 1980s a good portion of the production in China is being done through joint ventures of the Big Three they can ultimately send their product back here through their own distributors (Japan had to invest huge sums in dealerships and franchises to sell their products here).

16. Aerospace

China has targeted the sector for development wants to produce regional and large civil aircraft.Expanding its space program.

China has been playing Airbus against Boeing seeking to take as much offset production work for itself as possible.

Surplus in large aircraft sales trade surplus continues to decline 25% reduction from 2003 which was 30% down from the year before.

China is becoming a major world class producer of aircraft parts and components.

China exported 2 domestically-made regional airplanes and has signed export contracts for 20 more.

17. Communications

In less than 10 years, U.S. global trade surplus in cell phones has turned into a $16.3 billion trade deficit.

China has gone from trade balance in cell phones to world leader surpassing Korea as the leading exporter to the U.S.

China is becoming a major design center.In 2002 only 10% of handsets made in China were designed in house expected to rise to 40% by 2008.

China is beginning to drive product standards produce to their standards.

Microsoft, IBM, Honeywell and 3com are among the long list of US companies doing work in China.IBM openly discussed how its going to force its U.S. based employees to train their foreign replacements in China.

18. Textiles and Apparel

China now has quota free access to the US market (as well as that of other WTO members).

Chinas textile and apparel sector is stealing market share at a rapid and accelerating pace.

Bush Administration was slow to use textile safeguardtaking 17 months to write the regulations.

US Court of International Trade has blocked threat-based cases a critical safeguard that was negotiated in Chinas WTO accession agreement.

Administration doesnt collect some information critical to enforce our rights under the agreement.

19. Intellectual Property Rights (IPR)

Chinas piracy of our IPR exceeds 90% by industry estimates and is getting worse every year.

Tens of billions of dollars of profits are lost and with them jobs and our standard of living.

Piracy and counterfeiting extend well beyond software, movies and music to industrial products.

China has signed 4 separate IPR agreements when they fail to live up to their promises, the Administration simply accepts new promises and signs a new agreement.

Bush Administration claims there arent enough facts to bring a case.

20. Wal-Marts A Big Factor

In 2004, Wal-Mart imported more than $18 billion from China more than 10% of US trade deficit with China is now attributable to Wal-Mart.

If Wal-Mart were a country, it would rank as Chinas 8 th -biggest trading partner putting it ahead of Russia, Australia and Canada.

Wal-Mart is defining producers prices, driving production offshore and driving down wages here at home.

Wal-Mart is reviewing plans to buy its own shipping terminals and container ships.

21. China Is Beginning to Buy American

Lenovo connected to State Owned Company wants to purchase PC division of IBM.US Government investigating national security risks.

China purchase of Magnequench approved by US producer of rare earth magnets used in guidance systems in smart bombs.

Last year, China purchased more than 20 U.S. companies.

China foreign exchange reserves have skyrocketed since 2000 rising from $165.5 billion to $610 billion at the end of 2004.These reserves may be used to engage in a buying spree of US assets or to influence U.S. policy.

22. Chinas Energy Needs Are Growing Dramatically

Forty percent of new world oil demand is because of China.

Unlike the US and most developed countries, China wants to own their resources directly.

There is a direct link between their energy sources and their proliferation activities Iran, Sudan, etc.

Chinas energy companies are discussing buying 49% of a Canadian pipeline.China may buy 1 million barrels a day of Canadian oil out of 3 million bbd production.

Chinese state-owned energy company rumored to be interested in buying Unocal 9 thlargest US energy company.

23. China Is Resource Hungry in Other Areas

Top export category from the Port of Seattle to China is scrap materials:Waste paper, scrap steel and timber.

China bought iron ore mine in Minnesota.

China trying to buy Canadian firm Noranda primary metals producer with operations in 38 countries.

China refuses to export commodities like coking coal in violation of WTO rules.

24. Communist Chinas Continuing Human Rights Abuses

• The Government's human rights record remained poor, and the Government continued to commit numerous and serious abuses.

• Abuses included instances of extrajudicial killings, torture and mistreatment of prisoners, forced confessions, arbitrary arrest and detention, lengthy incommunicado detention, and denial of due process.

• The judiciary was not independent, and the lack of due process remained a serious problem. Government pressure made it difficult for Chinese lawyers to represent criminal defendants. A number of attorneys were detained for representing their clients actively.

2003 Bush State Department Annual Human Rights Report: 25.

• Over 250,000 persons were serving sentences, not subject to judicial review, in reeducation-through-labor camps.

• The Government severely restricted freedom of assembly and association and infringed on individuals' rights to privacy.

• Every year since PNTR, Chinas record has gotten worse.

Communist Chinas Continuing Human Rights Abuses 2003 Bush State Department Annual Human Rights Report: 26. China Continues to Threaten Taiwan

More than 650 missiles aimed across the Taiwan Straits.

Chinese navy continues to build within 5 years will have more than 20 modern attack submarines, including 6 nuclear-powered.

US and Japan signed joint agreement in February 2005 that Taiwan is a mutual security concern and that security in the Taiwan Strait is a common strategic objective.

27. China Is a Serial Proliferator

In December 2005, 8 Chinese companies are sanctioned for selling missile technology to Iran.

• Significant other sanctions have been imposed in the past, many of which are still in effect.

China provides arms and support to Sudanese interests to protect their energy interests.

Chinese assistance to Pakistan was essential to the development of their missile and nuclear programs.

China has provided assistance to North Koreas missile program, its space program and possibly its nuclear program either directly or indirectly through Pakistan.

28. Perspective

China is a communist nation.

Their people do not elect their leaders.

Raw use of power to maintain control.

China has a clear plan for economic developmentabout to draft its 11 thFive Year Plan.

China is acting in its national interest we should be acting in ours.

29. US-China Relationship is Different

EU-15 with 90 million more people, ran an annualized trade deficit with China last year of roughly $100 billion.EU-15 had an annualized trade surplus with the U.S. in 2004 of about $90 billion.

China had a trade surplus with the world of only $25.3 billion in 2003.While it has surpluses with the US, EU and Japan, it has deficits with most other countries.

30. What Can We Do? 31. Policy Recommendations Trade Laws

Make labor standards a core goal of US trade policy.

Instruct USTR to report on Chinas system of subsidies, discriminatory taxes, and market access denial.

Protect our trade laws which the USTR has agreed to discuss in the Doha Round.

Fund strengthened trade enforcement; bring actions in WTO.

Act on ITC Section 421 case decisions.

Help small & medium-sized companies bring trade cases.

Restore budget on China trade enforcement which Bush eliminates for 2006.

32.

Strengthen 1988 Trade Act requiring Treasury Dept. to report on currency manipulation & take action.

Take action against Chinese currency manipulation via IMF, WTO, and 301 case.

Pressure other East Asian countries to cease currency manipulation.

Policy Recommendations Currency Manipulation 33. Policy Recommendations Intellectual Property Rights

IPR is an issue for all sectors of our economy.

Force Administration to take action billions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of jobs are being lost every year .

Have Congress initiate 301 action on IPR.

34. Making Policy Happen

Frame the Issue:

Link national security and economic security together.

Educate people on threat China poses.

Talk about leverage 30% of Chinas exports come to the U.S., only 4% of ours go there (with many only being industrial tourists).Theyve got more to lose.We dont have to accept thestatus quo .

Tools:

Were not using the tools we have (IMF, WTO, Section 421).

We also need more tools (labor standards, non-performing loans, etc.).

We need to activate the grass roots about the threat China poses.The election might be over, but the problem isnt solved.

35. Commissions Future Activities

Hearings that spotlight the administrations policies & actions.

Research & hearings on the effects of Chinas policies on US employment & investment.

Research & hearings on future of the defense industrial base.

Elevate the debate on globalization & outsourcing. What does it mean for US workers when 2.5 billion people join the global labor market?

36. 37. 38. 39. We Need To Learn How To Communicate Better There is a real threat! 40. We Need Your help

We need your union to provide us with information on what jobs are being sent to China.

We need to know what products are important to our national security, homeland security that your unions are involved in which are being offshored.

We need your input on how we can best help you in framing the issues.

AFL-CIO and the affiliated unions are the most powerful lobbying force in the U.S. representing 13 million union households now is the time for action.