China’s Low Carbon Scenario under global 2 degree target ...
Transcript of China’s Low Carbon Scenario under global 2 degree target ...
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China’s Low Carbon Scenario under global 2 degree target
Toward Policy Making Process
Kejun JIANG, Hu Xiulian [email protected]
Energy Research Institute, China
19th AIM International Workshop, Tsukuba, 13-15 Dec. 2012
ERI, China ERI, China
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Mt-
CO
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CO2 Emission in China
Baseline
LC
ELC
2Degree
Transformation: CO2 emission, a rapid change
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What we did in 2013
• Modeling analysis for key factors toward 2 degree target • National 13th Five Year Plan: key indicators on energy and
CO2 • Energy and CO2 policy roadmap in Building: MOHURD study • Energy and CO2 policy roadmap for Transport: Ministry of
Transport • Carbon Tax regulation design • Roadmap for CCS in China • Up-Grading of Chinese Economy: Case study for Yangtze
River • Cap on coal modeling study • EST cap setting for Tianjin • EST design for 7 pilot cities • Energy Plan for Gui Yang city • IPCC things • Scenario for China, US, Japan, EU
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What’s the future of China’s low carbon policy: key factors
• Economic structure optimization policies • Energy efficiency policies • Renewable energy/nuclear power generation oriented policies • CCS • Low carbon consumption/ lifestyle • Land use emission reduction policies: so far relatively poor • Climate change target: China is key part of that • Can we pay for it? Cost and benefit
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Products output in major sectors, Low Carbon and ELC
Unit 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050Steel Million ton 355 610 570 440 360Cement Million ton 1060 1600 1600 1200 900
GlassMillioncases
399 650 690 670 580
Copper Million ton 2.6 7 7 6.5 4.6Ammonia Million ton 8.51 16 16 15 12Ethylene Million ton 5.1 7.2 7 6.5 5.5Soda Ash Million ton 14.67 23 24.5 23.5 22Casutic Million ton 12.64 24 25 25 24Paper Million ton 62.05 110 115 120 120FertilizerMillion ton 52.2 61 61 61 61Aluminum Million ton 7.56 34 36 36 33Paper Million ton 46.3 50 50 50 45Calcium carbideMillion ton 8.5 10 8 7 4
分部门能源消费量, Energy demand by sector, 1995-2010
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农、
林、
牧、
渔业
采掘
业煤
炭开
采和
洗选
业石油和天然气开采业
黑色
金属
矿采
选业
有色
金属
矿采
选业
非金
属矿
采选
业其
他采
矿业
农副
食品
加工
业食
品制
造业
饮料
制造
业烟
草制
品业
纺织
业纺
织服
装、
鞋、
帽制
造业
皮革
、毛
皮、
羽毛
(绒)及
其制
品业
木材
加工
及木
、竹
、藤
、棕
、草
制品
业
家具
制造
业造
纸及
纸制
品业
印刷
业和
记录
媒介
的复
制文教体育用品制造业
石油
加工
、炼
焦及
核燃
料加
工业
化学
原料
及化
学制
品制
造业
医药
制造
业化
学纤
维制
造业
橡胶
制品
业塑
料制
品业
非金
属矿
物制
品业
黑色
金属
冶炼
及压
延加
工业
有色
金属
冶炼
及压
延加
工业
金属
制品
业通
用设
备制
造业
专用
设备
制造
业交
通运
输设
备制
造业
电气
机械
及器
材制
造业
通信
设备
、计
算机
及其
他电
子设
备制
造业
仪器
仪表
及文
化、
办公
用机
械制
造业
工艺品及其他制造业
废弃
资源
和废
旧材
料回
收加
工业
电力
、煤
气及
水生
产和
供应
业电
力、
热力
的生
产和
供应
业燃
气生
产和
供应
业水
的生
产和
供应
业建
筑业
交通
运输
、仓
储和
邮政
业批
发、
零售
业和
住宿
、餐
饮业
其他
行业
生活
消费
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2010
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高效照明 【如 LED照明】
光伏电池
能源检测系统 (家用电器)
生态生活教育
减少 60% 采暖需求, 普及率70%
(25-47% 的家庭拥有屋顶光伏电池, 转换效率接近30%
COP =8, 普及率 100%
超高效空调
太阳热利用 普及率: 20-60%
(目前 6%)
热泵采暖 COP=5 普及率 30-70%
燃料电池 普及率 0-20%
高效绝热
减少50%照明需求, 普及率 100%
待机电源耗电
降低1/3 , 普及率100%
2050年的低碳住宅 舒适和节能
屋顶植被
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太阳能利用
高效家用电器 减少能源需求,支持舒适和安全生活方式
向公众提供经济和环境 信息促使大家成为
低碳消费
减少10-20% 能源需求
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百万
吨标
煤
年份
一次能源需求量,2度情景
生物柴油
醇类燃料
生物质能电
太阳能
风电
核电
水电
天然气
油
煤
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分部门终端能源需求量,当量法
建筑
交通
工业
农业
Final energy use by sectors
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万吨
标煤
低碳交通能源需求
其他
生物柴油
醇类燃料
电
天然气
油品
Transport energy demand
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百万
吨标
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服务业能源需求量
电
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油品
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焦炭
煤
Energy demand in tertiary
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电
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油品
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焦炭
煤
Urban household Energy demand
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吨标
煤农村居民能源需求量
电
热力
天然气
油品
煤气
焦炭
煤
Rural household Energy demand
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吨标
煤建筑能源需求量
电
热力
天然气
油品
煤气
焦炭
煤
Energy demand in building
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TWh
Power Generation
Bio
Solar
Wind
Nulcear
Hydro
N.Gas
Oil fired
Coal fired
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CCS future
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IGCC
US-Critical
Super Critical
Large Coal Unit
Samll Coal
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Power generation capacity with CCS
NGCC
IGCC-Fuel Cell
IGCC
US-Critical
Super Critical
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Annual Investment for CCS in China
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煤炭消费量,2度情景
其他
居民
供热
炼焦
建材
钢铁
发电
Coal use will reach peak by 2015
Industry CO2 emission will reach peak before 2020
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MtS
O2
SO2 Emission
BaU
LC
ELC
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Black Carbon Emission in China
BaU
LowCarbon
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NOx Emission in China, ELC scenario
Other
Power generation
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PM2.5 Emission
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Power generation
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Mercury Emission
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Power generation
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Can we do it: Peak before 2025?
• Economic structure will change soon, pushing by policy or wait until market decide(this will cause big problem for low capacity utilization)
• Technology is ready • Economic ability is getting much stronger to pay for low
carbon development • Global target need us move faster • Low carbon development is getting to be a main stream in
China
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Technology learning curve
Fuel Cell IGCC
Hydrogen Car
Poly-Generation
Solar Thermal Power
PV
4th Generation Nuclear
Off shore wind
on shore wind
Biomass Power
Advanced NGCC
Electic Car
CCS
Solar 2010
Wind 2010
CCS-PostC
CCS-Enduse
LED Lighting
Price: US$38000 Subsidy: US$15000(Shanghai), no need to apply number plate(cost US$10000) US$18000(Beijing), no need to apply number plate(By Oct. 2012, 1.1 million people apply for 20000number plates per month),
By 2020, Wind 200GW to 250GW, Solar 50WG
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Renewable Energy
• Renewable Energy Planning 2006: wind 30GW, Solar 2GW by 2020
• 2009 Energy Bureau: Wind 80WG • 2010 Energy Planning: Wind 150 GW, Solar 20GW by 2020
• Now: Wind 200GW to 250GW, Solar 50WG
• Based on the conclusion from Chinese Academy for
Engineering, grid in China could adopt these renewable energy power generation in short term.
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Renewable Energy
• Renewable Energy Planning 2006: wind 30GW, Solar 2GW by 2020
• 2009 Energy Bureau: Wind 80WG • 2010 Energy Planning: Wind 150 GW, Solar 20GW by 2020 • 2013, the 12th Five Year Plan: 20GW of solar PV by 2015,
150GW wind • February 2013, 35GW PV by 2015
• Now: Wind 200GW to 300GW, Solar 50WG to 120 GW • Based on the conclusion from Chinese Academy for
Engineering, grid in China could adopt these renewable energy power generation in short term.
• By Nov.2013, the plan on renewable energy development could be revised again, 43GW for solar.
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Natural Gas Scenarios
• In 2010,Natural Gas use 107.2BCM, while 12.2BCM imported.
• In our low carbon scenario: by 2030, 370BCM
• NEA’s planning: 260BCM by 2015/230BCM
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The New Five Year Plan on Air Pollution Control
• From 2013 to 2017
• Target: 30% improvement of air pollution
• A package of policies
• In which: reducing coal use in key areas including Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Yangtze Delta Regions, Pearl River Delta Region
• Clean oil supply for vehicle, upgrade emission standard and oil quality
• Regulation on diffusion on high efficiency cars
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R&D Expenditures in China
US R&D expenditures in 2008
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^8Yu
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GDP in China, current price
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Investment in Energy Industry in China
BaU
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HELC
LLC
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Energy Expenditures in China
BaU
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HELC
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Industry Transport Building Total
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Yu
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Addtional Investment in end use sectors in ELC
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
2010 2020 2030 2050 2075 2100
GDP Loss, %
650ppm
550ppm
450ppm
Per Capita
Carbon Intensity