China: Today, Tomorrow and the Transition

Kenneth W. HunterMaryland China Initiative, University of Maryland

What is China

China and Our Common Global Agenda: Looking to 2013 and Beyond

China components of your alternative scenarios and plans

What is China?What westerners see as tourists

and observers vs. the big, diverse and intense China we experience

China by the maps

China by the numbers

Chinese and American traditions and temperament

Ken as tourist

What tourists and observers see

What tourists and observers see

What tourists and observers see

What tourists and observers see

China for tourists and observers: the Sichuan earthquake

Experiencing China today

Big

Diverse

Intense

Big, diverse and intense: massive industrial operations

Big, diverse and intense: coal powered

Big, diverse and intense: largest car market

Big, diverse and intense: more cars

Big, diverse and intense: construction everywhere

Big, diverse and intense: more construction

Big, diverse and intense: massive cement operations

Big, diverse and intense: small farm agriculture

Big, diverse and intense: more farms

Big, diverse and intense: more farms

Big, diverse and intense: more farms

Big, diverse and intense: water

Big, diverse and intense: water

Big, diverse and intense: water

Big, diverse and intense: massive production facilities

Big, diverse and intense: worker protests

Big, diverse and intense: Massive Factory “Towns”

Big, diverse and intense: massive rail system development

Big, diverse and intense: massive port operations

Big, diverse and intense: shipping around the world

Big, diverse and intense: industrial and research parks

Big, diverse and intense: new environmental technology industry

Big, diverse and intense: more environmental industry

Big, diverse and intense: retailing is taking off

Big, diverse and intense: development of the professions -- IT

Big, diverse and intense: development of the professions -- finance

Big, diverse and intense: development of investment markets

Big, diverse and intense: huge reserves and currency pegged to dollar

Big, diverse and intense: military development

Big, diverse and intense: military development

Big, diverse and intense: civilian aircraft development

China by the maps

Make sure you are using the correct maps!

China by the maps: The World as Seen from America

China by the maps: Great River Systems

China by the maps: borders

China by the maps: Asia as Seen from Asia

China by the numbers

China by the numbers: PopulationPopulations 1.3 billion

Rate of change 0.5

Gender disparity 115 males to 100 females

Civilian labor force 800 million

Labor force distribution:

Agriculture 40 percent

Mfg, mining, utilities, const. 27

Services 33

China by the numbers: ProductionGDP (PPP) $10 trillion

GDP per capita (PPP) $7,500

Annual growth rate 8 to 12 percent

Origin of GDP:

Agriculture 11 percent

Mfg, mining, utilities, const. 49 percent

Services 40 percent

China by the numbers: foreign tradeExports: percent of GDP 33 percent

Imports: percent of GDP 26 percent

Major exports:

Telecommunications equipment 13 percent

Computers 11

Electrical and semiconductors 11

Clothing 9

China by the numbers: foreign tradeImports: percent of GDP 26 percent

Major imports:

Electrical and semiconductors 20

Petroleum and products 15

Iron and steel 9

Professional instruments 6

China by the numbers: foreign trade

China by the numbers: Reserves and Currency ValueForeign Exchange Reserves $2,850

billion

Renminbi per dollar:

2005 and earlier 8.2

2007 7.6

2008 6.9

Today 6.6

Resumed gradual appreciation in June 2010

China and U.S. traditions and temperaments

Chinese traditions and temperament

2,500 + years

And

United States traditions and temperament

250+ years

China and U.S. traditions and temperaments

A basis for

Convergence,

Co-evolution or

Conflict

through the 21st Century?

China and U.S. traditions and temperaments

A basis for

Convergence,

Co-evolution or

Conflict

through the 21st Century?

China and Our Common Global

Agenda

The Questions You Should Be Asking

China Component of

Alternative Scenarios

Ken’s

Patterns of Change and

Leadership and Luck Matrix

China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic

Barring bad luck and bad leadership, China will complete its modernization to catch up and regain a leadership position in the world in the next few decades in a process of co-evolution with the West. Today all of the key elements of that modernization are mid-way (1979 to 2040) but have significant momentum:

China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic Moving all China’s people out of poverty

Industrialization and urbanization within climate change limits on a per capita basis

Science and technology up to date in application with a few innovations

Governance institutions with high competence and much improved ethics but still as a one party system

Regional political, economic and security relationships stabilized but still stressed over water and supply chain protection

International relationships and participation on a basis of mutual respect and collaboration where needed

China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic

The question:

Does China have the momentum, capacity and resilience to survive the next globally cascading crisis and remain in a leadership position?

China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic

If yes, China will participate in shaping the post-crisis global institutions, which will involve confronting complexity while modernizing, streamlining and rebalancing our institutions.

China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic

If China fails, all the world will have a very large problem to deal with and the next global crisis likely will be very deep and very long in duration.

QuestionsKenneth W. Hunter

Senior Fellow

Maryland China Initiative

University of Maryland

Tel: 410-925-7395

E-mail: khunter1@umd.edu or khunter100@aol.com