China National Day Golden Week 2017 Review October … · China National Day Golden Week 2017...
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1 Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director, FGRT [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2017 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. October 18, 2017 China National Day Golden Week 2017 Review This year, China’s National Day Golden Week holiday took place on October 1‒8. Total spending on retail and food services posted a record high of ¥1.5 trillion ($226 billion), up 10.3% year over year. During the first seven days of the holiday, tourism-related revenues reached ¥549 billion ($83 billion), up 13.9% year over year. What was evident from this year’s Golden Week holiday was: 1) Chinese outbound tourists are focusing more on local experiences and are spending in a more diversified and rational manner. Demand for experiential travel and customized travel is increasing. 2) Apart from the more conventional destinations, mainland tourists are becoming increasingly adventurous, with new destinations seeing more than 50% growth in the number of tourist bookings: Morocco, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Czech Republic, Croatia, Finland, Austria, Germany, Vietnam, Cambodia and Italy. 3) Mobile payment gained traction during this year’s National Day Golden Week holiday, as overseas transactions for Ant Financial’s Alipay grew eightfold, compared to the same period last year. Another Record-Breaking Golden Week Data from the China National Tourism Administration (CNTA) showed that 705 million trips were made during the combined eight-day National Day and Mid-Autumn holidays this year, with tourism-related revenues reaching ¥584 billion ($88 billion). During the first seven days of the National Day Golden Week holiday, 663 million trips were made, which is up 11.9 % from the seven-day holiday last year, with tourism-related revenues reaching ¥549 billion ($83 billion), implying an increase of 13.9% year over year. Five years ago, 428 million trips were made during the seven-day holiday.
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Transcript of China National Day Golden Week 2017 Review October … · China National Day Golden Week 2017...
1 DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
October18,2017
China National Day Golden Week 2017 Review
Thisyear,China’sNationalDayGoldenWeekholidaytookplaceonOctober1‒8.Totalspendingonretailandfoodservicespostedarecordhighof¥1.5trillion($226billion),up10.3%yearoveryear.
Duringthefirstsevendaysoftheholiday,tourism-relatedrevenuesreached¥549billion($83billion),up13.9%yearoveryear.Whatwasevidentfromthisyear’sGoldenWeekholidaywas:
1) Chineseoutboundtouristsarefocusingmoreonlocalexperiencesandarespendinginamorediversifiedandrationalmanner.Demandforexperientialtravelandcustomizedtravelisincreasing.
2) Apartfromthemoreconventionaldestinations,mainlandtouristsarebecomingincreasinglyadventurous,withnewdestinationsseeingmorethan50%growthinthenumberoftouristbookings:Morocco,Turkey,UnitedArabEmirates,CzechRepublic,Croatia,Finland,Austria,Germany,Vietnam,CambodiaandItaly.
3) Mobilepaymentgainedtractionduringthisyear’sNationalDayGoldenWeekholiday,asoverseastransactionsforAntFinancial’sAlipaygreweightfold,comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.
AnotherRecord-BreakingGoldenWeekDatafromtheChinaNationalTourismAdministration(CNTA)showedthat705milliontripsweremadeduringthecombinedeight-dayNationalDayandMid-Autumnholidaysthisyear,withtourism-relatedrevenuesreaching¥584billion($88billion).DuringthefirstsevendaysoftheNationalDayGoldenWeekholiday,663milliontripsweremade,whichisup11.9%fromtheseven-dayholidaylastyear,withtourism-relatedrevenuesreaching¥549billion($83billion),implyinganincreaseof13.9%yearoveryear.Fiveyearsago,428milliontripsweremadeduringtheseven-dayholiday.
2 DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
October18,2017
TheCNTAalsoestimatesthatthenumberofoutboundtouristsexceeded6millionduringtheholidayperiod,aslightincreasecomparedtolastyear.Inaddition,71%ofoutboundtouristsspentover¥8,000duringtheNationalDayGoldenWeekholiday,accordingtodatafromXinhuanet.StatisticsfromonlinetravelagentCtripshowedthat46%ofoutboundtravelisstillconcentratedinSoutheastAsia,withThailandbenefittingthemostfromChineseoutboundtravel.
QualityTourismontheRiseChineseoutboundtouristsarefocusingmoreonlocalexperiencesandappeartobespendinginamorediversifiedandrationalmanner.Webelievethisisdrivenbytheirsolidpurchasingpower,aswellastheriseofthemiddleclassinChina.
• Experientialtravel:Airbnbannouncedthatdomesticbookingsincreased126%andoverseasbookingsincreased32%duringtheholidayperiod.Localbed-and-breakfastplayerTujiaalsosawanover400%increaseyearoveryear.ASpokespersonforTujianotedthattouristsarelookingformorepersonalizedexperiencesandhigh-qualityaccommodations,withanaveragespendingof¥557perroompernightduringtheGoldenWeekholiday.
• Customizabletravel:Thereisalsogrowingdemandforamorepersonalizedholidayexperience,asmorethanhalfofChinesetouristsprefercustomizabletravel.Some45%ofChinesetouristschosetraditionalpackagetours,44%choseself-plannedtripsand11%chosetailor-madetravelservices,accordingtodatafromCtrip.
• Solidpurchasingpower:Some70%ofChineseoutboundtouristsspentmorethan¥8,000duringthisyear’sNationalDayGoldenWeekholiday,accordingtodatafromXinhuanet,ofwhich24%spentbetween¥15,000and¥20,000,and6%spentmorethan¥20,000.AmongChineseoutboundtourists,morethan90%chosefour-star-or-aboveaccommodationsthisholiday,accordingtoCtripdata.
Figure1.NationalDayGoldenWeek—SpendingbyChineseOutboundTourists
Note:AsofOctober3,2017.Source:Xinhuanet
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Above¥20,000
¥15,000–¥20,000
¥8,000–¥15,000
¥3,000–¥8,000
¥3,000orbelow
3 DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
October18,2017
LessConventionalDestinationsAreBecomingPopularAswehadanticipatedinourChinaNationalDayGoldenWeek2017Preview,SoutheastAsia,ThailandandJapanwerethetopbeneficiariesofChineseoutboundtravelduringthisyear’sNationalDayGoldenWeekholiday,andKoreawasthebiggestloser.AccordingtotheCNTA,themostvisitedcountriesthisyearincludedRussia,Thailand,Vietnam,SingaporeandMalaysia,andthetopcitieswereMoscow,St.Petersburg,Bangkok,PattayaandSingapore.
Apartfromthemoreconventionaldestinations,mainlandtouristsarealsobecomingincreasinglyadventurous.DatafromtheCNTAshowthatChineseoutboundtouriststraveledto1,155overseascitiesin88countriesforthisyear’sholiday.AccordingtoCtrip,severalnewdestinationssawmorethan50%growthinthenumberoftouristbookingsthisyear:Morocco,Turkey,UnitedArabEmirates,CzechRepublic,Croatia,Finland,Austria,Germany,Vietnam,CambodiaandItaly.
WinnersandLosersAccordingtoCtrip,46%ofChineseoutboundtouristschosetotraveltoSoutheastAsiaduringtheNationalDayGoldenWeek.WeseeThailandandJapanasthetopbeneficiariesofChineseoutboundtravelduringtheholiday,andKoreaasthelargestloser.
Figure2.NationalDayGoldenWeek—FavoriteDestinationsbyChineseOutboundTourists
Note:AsofSeptember28,2017.Source:Ctrip
ThailandtheFavoriteDestinationforChineseTravelersTherehasbeenarecentcrackdowninChinaon“zerodollars”tours—i.e.,tourswhereChinesetouristsaretrickedintobuyingacheaptourpackageonlytofindtheirexpensesincreasesignificantlyoncetheyarriveatthedestination.Asaresult,260,000ChinesevisitorstravelledtoThailandduringthisyear’sGoldenWeek,ayear-over-yearincreaseof35%fromlastyear,accordingtotheTourismAuthorityofThailand.TheseChinesetouristsareexpectedtogeneratetourism-relatedrevenuesofoverTHB11billion(or$33million)forThailandduringtheholiday,accordingtotheMinistryofTourismandSports.
SouthEasiaAsia,46%
HongKong/Macau/
Taiwan,13%
Japan/Korea,12%
Europe,11%
America,7%
MiddleEastandAfrica,6%
Australia,5%
4 DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
October18,2017
MobilePaymentGainsTractionOverseastransactionsforAntFinancial’sAlipaygreweightfoldovertheNationalDayGoldenWeekholiday,comparedtothesameperiodlastyear,accordingtoAntFinancial.Incomparison,thetransactionvalueofoverseaspaymentsinHongKongreachedbillionsofrenminbiduringtheGoldenWeekholiday,nearlydoublethetransactionvalueinJapanduringthesameperiod.
Source:Alipay.com
RetailSawSolidGrowth;PopularityofDutyFreeShopsContinuesRetailandrestaurantrevenuesreached¥1.5trillion($225.6billion)duringtheholiday,withdailyaveragesalesup10.3%yearonyear,accordingtotheMinistryofCommerce.DutyfreeshoppingcontinuestobethefavoriteamongChinesetourists.AccordingtodatafromWeChat,over52%ofoutboundtouristsshoppedatdutyfreeretailersovertheNationalDayGoldenWeekholiday.
Figure3.NationalDayGoldenWeek—MostPopularStoresAmongChineseOutboundTourists
Note:AsofOctober8,2017.Source:WeChat
Duty-Free
Retail
PharmaciesConvenience
Stores
Food&Beverage
Others
5 DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
October18,2017
Losers
SouthKoreaMissesOutDuringGoldenWeekAsalreadydiscussedinourChinaNationalDayGoldenWeek2017Preview,Koreahasfallenofftheleaguetableforthetop-10most-populardestinationsforChinesetourists.SincetheTHAADmissileincidentearlierthisyear,thenumberofChinesetouriststoKoreahasplummeted.Ctrippredictedafallofaround70%inthenumberofChineseoutboundtouriststoSouthKoreaduringtheNationalDayholiday.
ForouranalysisoftheperformanceofKorea’sretailsectorintheaftermathoftheTHAADmissileincident,seeourDeepDive:Future-ProofingDepartmentStoresinAsia—Part1
Figure4.ChineseOutboundTravel—AnnualChange(%)
Source:NationalTourismOrganizations
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
HongKong Macau Thailand JapanSouthKorea Singapore Taiwan Malaysia
TheTHAADmissileincident'simpactonKorea.
Malaysiaisbecomingapopulardesqnaqon.
6 DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
October18,2017
DeborahWeinswig,CPAManagingDirectorFGRTNewYork:917.655.6790HongKong:852.6119.1779China:[email protected]
SimicChanSeniorResearchAssociate
HongKong:2ndFloor,HongKongSpinnersIndustrialBuildingPhase1&2800CheungShaWanRoad,KowloonHongKongTel:85223004406London:242–246MaryleboneRoadLondon,NW16JQUnitedKingdomTel:44(0)2076168988NewYork:1359Broadway,18thFloorNewYork,NY10018Tel:6468397017
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