China Maritime Technologies and StructuresChristopher P. Carlson

Admiralty Trilogy Group

Technology and Future Fleet ArchitecturesHopper & Leidos Chairs’ Workshop

U.S. Naval War College3-4 November 2021

Scene Setter(An additional slide that has the verbal preamble to the workshop presentation)

u The PLAN has undergone rapid technological advancement in naval warfightingcapabilities during the last 17 years.

u This incredible pace is tied to several factors:– 1) Stable maritime strategy.– 2) Stable funding.– 3) Significant foreign technology insertion; particularly from Russia.– 4) Imitative innovation concept – significant R&D savings in both time and money.

• Research = Shopping list for proven foreign systems.• Development = Modifying acquired systems to better meet PLAN requirements.

– 5) Use of spiral development to field rapid changes in payload while maintaining consistencyin hull, mechanical, and electrical components.

u PLAN’s technology requirements are driven by Chinese maritime strategy.

u PLAN surface warship capabilities are a function of the order of battle and thesystems on the individual ship classes.

– Focus on frigate-size ships and larger. Patrol combatants lack the volume to make full use ofthe technological advancements.

• Type 056/056A corvettes are considered light frigates for the purpose of this presentation. – Examine the capabilities in four warfare areas: anti-surface, anti-air, anti-submarine, and

strike over the history of the PLAN – roughly 1950 thru 2021.

Medium Range Missiles

WWII Era – HF Sonars, Depth Charges, ASW Rockets MF Sonars, VDS, Helos, Homing Torpedoes

Towed Arrays, MPA,ASW Missiles

Anti-Air Warfare – Area Defense

Long Range Missiles, AESA Radars

Maritime Strategy Near Coast Defense

Near Seas Active Defense

Far Seas Operations

Warfare Areas

Anti-Surface WarfareWWII Era – Guns Only Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Year

Anti-Air Warfare – Point DefenseWWII Era – Guns Only Short Range Missiles

Anti-Submarine Warfare

Submarine Warfare – Primarily Anti-ShipWWII Era – Sonar and Torpedoes MF Sonars, Homing Torpedoes LF Sonars, Towed Arrays,

ASCMsStrike - SubmarineJL-1? JL-2

Strike – Surface Ship

DH-10?Aircraft Carriers

Amphibious Warfare

Foreign TechnologyInfluence

WWII Era Concepts and Ships Modern OTH

W. Europe & USA RussiaSoviet Union

OTH-T, Long Range, SupersonicAnti-Ship Cruise Missiles

Varyag Transferredto PLAN

Liaoning

PLAN Technology Timeline

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200

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600

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Carrier Cruiser Destroyer Frigate Patrol

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2021

Year

Ships

u Order of battle does not include Coast Guard, Customs, CMS, MSA, or militia.u 1950 – 1995: Patrol craft make up 92+% of the PLAN order of battle.u Advanced maritime/naval technologies tend to require a lot of volume.

PLAN Surface Combatant Order of Battle(1950 – 2021)

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Carrier Cruiser Destroyer Frigate Patrol

PLAN Surface Combatant Total Displacement(1950 – 2021)

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2021

Year

Tons

u From 1995 and on, patrol craft represent less than half the total OOB displacement.u Will ignore patrol craft for remainder of this discussion.

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Carrier Cruiser Destroyer Frigate

PLAN Surface Combatant Order of Battle(1950 – 2021)

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2021

Year

Ships

u This represents the ships of greater interest for investigating the effects of advances innaval technologies – available volume.

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

OTH Horizon Gun

PLAN Anti-Surface Warfare Assessment(1950 – 2021)

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2021

Year

Ships

SY-1, HY-1, SY-2, YJ-8

YJ-83, YJ-62, YJ-12, YJ-18OTH Targeting Complexes

Near CoastDefense

Near SeasActive Defense

Far SeasOperations

u PLAN was an early adopter of the anti-ship cruise missile.u Core competency – by 2020 PLAN had transitioned to an OTH capable force.

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Long PD-Med Gun

PLAN Anti-Air Warfare Assessment(1950 – 2021)

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2021

Ships

u Not a priority concern until the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis revealed significant vulnerabilities.u Far seas operations pushing the development and deployment of long-range air defense.

Year

HQ-61B, Crotale, HQ-7,HQ-10, SA-N-7, HQ-16A

Near CoastDefense

Near SeasActive Defense

Far SeasOperations

SA-N-20, HQ-9, HQ-16BAESA Radars

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Long Medium Short

PLAN Anti-Submarine Warfare Assessment(1950 – 2021)

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2021

Ships

Year

MF Hull Sonar, Helos

Near CoastDefense

Near SeasActive Defense

Far SeasOperations

MF Hull Sonar, Passive & Active Towed Arrays, Yu-8, Yu-11, Helos

u PLAN recognizes the SSN force is a U.S. advantage; understands their ships are vulnerable.u Far seas operations drove the rapid development and deployment of ship ASW capability.

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VLS CV Gun

PLAN Strike Warfare Assessment(1950 – 2021)

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2021

Ships

Year

Near CoastDefense

Near SeasActive Defense

Far SeasOperations

Universal VLS

CarrierAircraft

u Weakest warfare area for the PLAN – CVs have limited strike capability.u No indication DH-10 has been launched from a Universal VLS equipped ship.

Conclusions

u China has been rapidly developing advanced naval technologies.– Significant benefit from foreign technology insertion; particularly from Russia.– True believers of the “spiral development” concept.– Imitative Innovation: takes proven systems and adjusts them to better serve China’s needs.– The era of Imitative Innovation is likely drawing to a close; China has assimilated most of

the technologies and procedures they obtained from the Russians.

u PLAN’s technology requirements are driven by Chinese maritime strategy.– Far Seas Operations has been a critical driver for many of the systems that have been fielded by the PLAN; also benefit Near Seas Active Defense.

u PLAN surface warship capabilities have grown tremendously in the past 20 years.– Anti-Surface Warfare: Almost a total OTH capable force with long-range ASCMs and ship-based targeting complexes. Currently superior to the U.S. Navy.

– Anti-Air Warfare: Behind the U.S. Navy but moving steadily forward. HQ-9 family ofSAMs coupled with AESA radars will be a potent threat to strike aircraft.

– Anti-Submarine Warfare: China is putting considerable effort into their ship-based ASWcapabilities, an acknowledged weakness - active towed arrays and Yu-8/Yu-11 ASW missiles.

– Strike Warfare: Weakest area due to carrier limitations (size of air wing & aircraftrestrictions) and the apparent lack of a DH-10 launch from a Universal VLS ship.