China / Hong Kong Monthly Chart Book HK Property Bliss NT Ma On Shan 100 364 On sale Others The...

ed TH / sa- AH

What will developers sell in 2017 New project launches in Kai Tak area will be the key focus.

Tsuen Wan is another battlefield.

SHKP & Wheelock have strong project launch pipelines.

New project launches in Kai Tak area will be the key focus. Five developments there with >3,900 units in total are expected to go on sale in 2017. Judging from the recent overwhelming response to the launch of One Kai Tak and encouraging tender results for residential sites nearby, these projects should attract strong market attention when offered for sale. Tsuen Wan is another battlefield. Developers are applying for pre-sale consent for three large projects situated at Tsuen Wan West Rail Station. These will provide over 4,300 flat units upon completion and are expected to compete with each other. Elsewhere, SHKP also plans to launch Cullinan West atop the Nam Cheong Station, two stops from the Tsuen Wan West Rail Station. Given its good transportation accessibility, this large development should draw strong market interest when launched for pre-sale. SHKP & Wheelock have a strong project launch pipeline in 2017. SHKP’s projects are diversified in terms of location and product mix. Hence, the company should be well positioned to tap the demand from different home purchasers. Wheelock & Co plans to release three new projects onto the market in 2017. They include TKOTL126 and Lohas Park Package 5 in Tseung Kwan O and the Kai Tak project which altogether provide c.3200 units. Elsewhere, its 61%-owned subsidiary Wharf will continue to sell Mount Nicholson on the Peak. Elsewhere, New World Development intends to launch Mount Pavilia, a low density residential development in Sai Kung, in 2Q17 following the pre-sale of The Pavilia Bay in Tsuen Wan. These two projects should dominate the company's development earnings for FY17-18. Other projects up for sale include The Artisan House in Sai Ying Pun and Park Villa (a completed house development) in Yuen Long.

HSI: 22,150 ANALYST Jeff YAU CFA, +852 2820 4912 [email protected]

Ian CHUI [email protected]

Valuation & recommendation

Disc . t oJ u l- 17

NA VHK $ HK $ HK $bn %

Henderson Land(12 HK)

41.80 47.75 152 (47) Hold

K Wah Int'l(173 HK)

3.61 4.50 11 (68) Buy

Kerry Props(683 HK)

21.45 25.70 31 (71) Buy

Lai Sun Dev(488 HK)

0.146 0.220 3 (77) Buy

MTR Corp(66 HK)

38.35 38.45 226 (15) Hold

New World Dev(17 HK)

8.43 11.20 79 (62) Buy

Sino Land(83 HK)

11.90 15.40 75 (50) Buy

SHKP(16 HK)

100.70 132.00 292 (50) Buy

Tai Cheung(88 HK)

6.82 7.86 4 (65) Buy

Wheelock & Co.(20 HK)

45.05 49.40 92 (27) Buy

Wing Tai Props(369 HK)

4.68 5.54 6 (70) Buy

RecomT argetPric e

Company Pric e M k tCap

Source: DBS Vickers

DBS Group Research . Equity 4 Jan 2017

China / Hong Kong Monthly Chart Book

HK Property (Issue No. 83) Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report


HK Property

Major project launches in 2017

Project / Lot no Locat ion Locat ion Stake (%) Total no. of unit s

Remark

Crescendo NT Yuen Long 100 67 Presale consent obtained in Sep-16Tsuen Wan West Station TW7 Bay NT Tsuen Wan 100 970 Presale consent pending approvalTsuen Wan West Station TW7 Bay NT Tsuen Wan 100 1,436 Presale consent pending approvalIL 8920 HK North Point 100 378 Presale consent pending approvalIL 8949 Ph 1 HK Mid-levels 100 115 Presale consent pending approvalSTTL 574 NT Ma On Shan 100 454 Presale consent pending approvalSHKPEight Regency NT Tuen Mun 100 321 Presale consent obtained in Aug-16St. Moritz NT Shatin 100 59 Presale consent pending approvalIL9027 RP Ph 1 HK North Point 100 355 Presale consent pending approvalCullinan West Kln Nam Cheong 100 1,050 Presale consent pending approvalSTTL 581 Ph 1 NT Ma On Shan 100 353 Presale consent pending approvalSTTL 581 Ph 2 NT Ma On Shan 100 67 Presale consent pending approvalGrand YOHO Development Ph 2 NT Yuen Long 100 826 Presale consent pending approvalBarbington Hill HK Mid-levels 92 79 Old leaseNew World Dev elopmentMount Pav ilia NT Sai Kung 63 680 Presale consent obtained in Dec-15The Pavilia Bay NT Tsuen Wan 80 983 Presale consent pending approvalCPIL 18 & TMTL 99 NT Tuen Mun 100 100 Presale consent pending approvalArtisan House HK Sai Ying Pun 100 250 Old leaseF leur Pav ilia HK North Point 40 611 Old leaseHenderson LandEden Manor NT Sheung Shui 100 590 Presale consent pending approvalWheelockTKOTL 126 NT Tseung Kwan O 100 926 Presale consent pending approvalLohas Park Package 5 NT Tseung Kwan O 100 1,600NKIL 6541 Kln Kai Tak 100 648 Presale consent pending approval

One Kai Tak (II) Kln Kai Tak 100 624 Presale consent obtained in Nov-16K. Wah Internat ionalNKIL 6526 Kln Kai Tak 100 900 Presale consent obtained in Oct-16Wing Tai Propert iesSTTL 567 NT Shatin 35 158 Presale consent pending approvalSTTL 565 NT Shatin 35 69 Presale consent pending approvalSIL 854 HK Shau Kei Wan 100 75 Presale consent pending approval

Source: Company, Lands Department, Building Department, Local presses, DBS Vickers


HK Property

Major project launches in 2017

Project / Lot no Locat ion Locat ion Stake (%) Total no. of unit s

Remark

Chinachem (unlisted)Tsuen Wan West Station TW7 City NT Tsuen Wan 100 953 Presale consent pending approvalManhat tan Realty (unlisted)1 Tsing Lung Road NT Tuen Mun 100 75 Pre-sale consent obtained in Feb 14Emperor Internat ional8 Kwun Fat Street NT Tuen Mun 100 14 Presale consent pending approvalHKRLa Cresta NT Shatin 50 61 JV with Nan FungNan F ung (unlisted)RBL1190 HK Island South 100 54 Presale consent pending approvalLa Cresta NT Shatin 50 61 Presale consent pending approvalF ar East Consort iumMarin Point NT Sha Tau Kok 100 261 Presale consent pending approvalTan Kwai Tsuen NT Yuen Long 100 24Chev ailer City Hub Kln To Kwa Wan 100 175 Presale consent obtained in Aug-16Chinese Estates12 Shiu Fai Terrace HK Mid-levels 100 24 Presale consent pending approvalPoly Propert y NKIL 6527 Kln Kai Tak 100 930 Presale consent pending approvalK&K Propert y

NKIL 6525 Kln Kai Tak 100 822 Presale consent pending approvalWang On GroupThe Met. Bliss NT Ma On Shan 100 364 On saleOthersThe Woods NT Sai Kung 100 6 Pre-sale consent obtained in Apr 16Mount V ienna NT Shatin 100 12 Presale consent pending approvalLot 1588 in DD243 NT Sai Kung 100 8 Presale consent pending approval

2 Tsing Min Path NT Tuen Mun 100 356 Presale consent pending approval

T Plus NT Tuen Mun 100 356 Presale consent pending approval

45 Tai Tam Road HK Tai Tam 100 7 Presale consent pending approval

L'Aquatique NT Tsing Lung Tau 100 198 Presale consent pending approval Source: Company, Lands Department, Building Department, Local presses, DBS Vickers


HK Property

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Share price performance 5

What were the transaction trends in primary and secondary markets? 10

What are the factors affecting residential demand and supply? 12

What projects were launched? 14

Where are the upcoming projects? 15

How about the office market? 16

How about the retail market? 17

What did corporates do? 19

Discount to NAV – Property developers & investors 21

Discount to NAV band – Property developers & investors 24

Price to book NAV band - REITs 27

Historical yield band - REITs 28

Any important dates to look out for? 29

Our past publications 30


HK Property

Share price performance

Property developer index vs HSI Property developer index vs HSI (6 month)

0

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100

150

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HK property developers share price index HSI

Rebased (01 Jan 01 = 100)

70

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110

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130

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6

Aug

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/16

HK property developers share price index HSI

Rebased (30 Jun 16 = 100)

Property investor vs HSI Property investor index vs HSI (6 month)

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16

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17

HK property investors share price index HSI

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80

90

100

110

120

130

Jun/

16

Jul/1

6

Aug

/16

Sep/

16

Oct

/16

Nov

/16

Dec

/16

HK property investors share price index HSI

REIT vs HSI REIT index vs HSI (6 month)

40

90

140

190

240

290

340

Jan/

07Ju

l/07

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08Ju

l/08

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l/09

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l/11

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l/13

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14Ju

l/14

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l/15

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16Ju

l/16

Jan/

17

REITs share price index HSI

Rebased (29 Dec 06 = 100)

70 75 80 85 90 95

100 105 110 115 120

Jun/

16

Jul/1

6

Aug

/16

Sep/

16

Oct

/16

Nov

/16

Dec

/16

REITs share price index HSI

Rebased (30 Jun 16 = 100)

Source: Thomson Reuters; DBS Vickers


HK Property

Valuation – Property developers

Disc. to

Mkt Last 12-m PE PE J ul-17 J ul-17 Y ield Y ieldCompany Code F YE Cap Price target Recom F Y16 F Y17 NA V NA V F Y16 F Y17

HK$bn HK$ HK$ x x HK$ % % %

Henderson Land 12 HK Dec 152 41.80 47.75 Hold 11.1 14.7 79.6 (47) 3.9 3.9

K Wah Int'l 173 HK Dec 11 3.61 4.50 Buy 5.2 6.8 11.2 (68) 4.7 4.7Kerry Props 683 HK Dec 31 21.45 25.70 Buy 8.6 6.2 73.4 (71) 4.2 4.2

Lai Sun Dev 488 HK Jul 3 0.146 0.220 Buy 11.2 13.1 0.6 (77) 1.3 1.3

MTR Corp 66 HK Dec 226 38.35 38.45 Hold 24.6 26.8 45.2 (15) 8.5 8.5New World Dev 17 HK Jun 79 8.43 11.20 Buy 11.2 10.9 22.4 (62) 5.2 5.2

Sino Land 83 HK Jun 75 11.90 15.40 Buy 13.6 14.1 23.7 (50) 4.3 4.3

SHKP 16 HK Jun 292 100.70 132.00 Buy 12.0 11.7 203.1 (50) 3.8 3.8Tai Cheung 88 HK Mar 4 6.82 7.86 Buy 18.6 13.3 19.6 (65) 4.4 4.4

Wheelock & Co. 20 HK Dec 92 45.05 49.40 Buy 8.0 9.0 61.7 (27) 2.7 2.7

Wing Tai Properties 369 HK Dec 6 4.68 5.54 Buy 14.9 15.0 15.8 (70) 3.2 3.2

^ ^

^ Included proposed special dividend Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Vickers

Valuation – Property investors

Disc . t oM k t Last 12- m PE PE J u l- 17 J u l- 17 Y ield Y ield

Company Code F Y E Cap Price t arget Recom F Y 16 F Y 17 NA V NA V F Y 16 F Y 17

HK $bn HK $ HK $ x x HK $ % % %

Hang Lung Props 101 HK Dec 76 16.90 15.40 Hold 15.1 14.4 34.2 (51) 4.4 4.4

HK Land @ HKL SP Dec 15 6.51 7.76 Buy 17.7 16.4 11.9 (45) 2.9 2.9Hysan Dev 14 HK Dec 35 33.60 32.10 Hold 15.1 14.8 64.2 (48) 4.0 4.0

Swire Props 1972 HK Dec 129 22.10 26.45 Buy 19.6 16.4 40.6 (46) 3.2 3.2Wharf 4 HK Dec 163 53.80 56.00 Hold 12.3 12.5 86.2 (38) 3.9 3.9

@ denominated in USD

Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Vickers

Valuation – REITs

M k t Last 12- m Y ield Y ield Y ield Price/

REIT Code F Y E Cap Pric e T arget Recom F Y 15A F Y 16F F Y 17F BV

HK $m HK $ HK $ % % % (x )

Champion REIT* 2778 HK Dec 24,411 4.21 4.94 Buy 4.7 5.3 5.3 0.49

J inmao Investments* 6139 HK Dec 8,100 4.05 4.93 Hold 10.7 9.2 9.2 1.01

Langham Hospitality^ 1270 HK Dec 6,491 3.14 n.a. NR 8.0 7.8 7.4 0.55

New Century REIT^ 1275 HK Dec 2,369 2.49 n.a. NR 13.1 7.8 7.0 0.87

Regal REIT^ 1881 HK Dec 6,743 2.07 n.a. NR 7.4 n.a. n.a. 0.50

Spring REIT^ 1426 HK Dec 3,629 3.21 n.a. NR 8.3 7.7 7.5 0.50

Sunlight REIT* 435 HK J un 7,442 4.55 5.22 Buy 4.8 5.3 5.4 0.55

Link REIT* 823 HK Mar 113,133 50.90 52.40 Hold 3.6 4.0 4.4 0.90

Yuexiu REIT^ 405 HK Dec 12,038 4.12 n.a. NR 6.8 7.3 7.0 0.74 @ denominated in RMB ^ DPU based on consensus Source: Thomson Reuters, *DBS Vickers


HK Property

Trading range comparison – Property developers and investors

LastPrice

F Y16FP/E atHighPrice

F Y16FP/E at

LowPrice

Discountto NAVat High

Price

Discountto NAVat Low

PriceHighPrice

LowPrice

HighPrice

LowPrice

HighPrice

LowPrice

HK$ x x % % HK$ HK$ HK$ HK$ HK$ HK$

Property dev elopers

Henderson Land 12 HK 41.80 12.4 10.7 -41% -49% 46.90 40.50 45.85 40.50 42.85 40.50

K Wah Int'l 173 HK 3.61 6.2 5.0 -60% -68% 4.34 3.49 4.26 3.49 3.89 3.49

Kerry Properties 683 HK 21.45 10.2 8.4 -65% -71% 25.30 20.75 24.85 20.75 22.25 20.90

Lai Sun Dev 488 HK 0.146 13.0 11.0 -72% -76% 0.17 0.14 0.16 0.14 0.15 0.14

MTR Corp 66 HK 38.35 28.1 24.0 1% -14% 43.80 37.30 42.60 37.30 38.90 37.30

New World Dev 17 HK 8.43 13.5 10.8 -52% -62% 10.18 8.16 9.75 8.16 8.78 8.16

Sino Land 83 HK 11.90 16.1 12.7 -40% -53% 14.12 11.16 12.66 11.16 12.18 11.38

SHKP 16 HK 100.70 14.1 11.6 -41% -51% 118.40 97.15 115.80 97.15 105.20 97.15

Tai Cheung 88 HK 6.82 19.0 17.1 -64% -68% 6.95 6.28 6.95 6.43 6.95 6.66

Wheelock & Co 20 HK 45.05 8.7 7.5 -14% -26% 48.70 42.15 47.60 42.15 46.60 43.05

Wing Tai Properties 369 HK 4.68 15.5 14.6 -70% -71% 4.89 4.60 4.79 4.60 4.72 4.63

Property inv estors

Hang Lung Props 101 HK 16.90 15.9 14.3 -47% -52% 17.80 16.02 17.76 16.02 17.76 16.02

HK Land^ HKL SP 6.51 19.4 16.6 -36% -46% 7.15 6.10 6.68 6.10 6.51 6.13

Hysan Dev 14 HK 33.60 16.9 14.4 -43% -51% 37.60 32.05 35.40 32.05 34.90 32.05

Swire Properties 1972 HK 22.10 20.8 19.0 -40% -46% 23.45 21.40 23.45 21.40 22.55 21.40

Wharf 4 HK 53.80 13.8 11.5 -33% -44% 59.95 50.25 58.30 50.25 56.45 50.25

Sector Av erage - Dev elopers 14.1 12.0 -34% -45%Sector Av erage - Inv estors 17.3 15.2 -38% -46%Hang Seng Index 13.0 11.7

- - Last 1 month - -- - Last 2 month - -- - Last 3 month - - - - Last 3 month - - - - Last 3 month - -

^ denominated in USD



HK Property

Trading range comparison – REITs

LastPrice

F Y16FDiv y ield

at HighPrice

F Y16FDiv

y ield atLowPrice

P/BV atHigh Price

P/BV atLow Price

HighPrice

LowPrice

HighPrice

LowPrice

HighPrice

LowPrice

HK$ % % x x HK$ HK$ HK$ HK$ HK$ HK$

REIT s

Champion REIT 2778 HK 4.21 4.7 5.4 0.55 0.48 4.75 4.16 4.55 4.16 4.48 4.16

J inmao Investments 6139 HK 4.05 8.7 9.6 1.05 0.97 4.24 3.88 4.05 3.88 4.05 3.89

Langham Hospitality 1270 HK 3.14 7.8 7.9 0.55 0.54 3.14 3.07 3.14 3.07 3.14 3.08

New Century REIT 1275 HK 2.49 7.7 8.8 0.88 0.77 2.52 2.22 2.51 2.28 2.51 2.49

Regal REIT 1881 HK 2.07 n.a. n.a. 0.50 0.49 2.08 2.01 2.08 2.01 2.07 2.01

Spring REIT 1426 HK 3.21 7.2 8.0 0.54 0.49 3.45 3.12 3.30 3.12 3.30 3.12

Sunlight REIT 435 HK 4.55 4.9 5.5 0.60 0.53 4.97 4.40 4.78 4.40 4.74 4.40

Link REIT 823 HK 50.90 3.6 4.2 1.02 0.86 58.00 49.00 55.20 49.00 54.20 49.00

Yuexiu REIT 405 HK 4.12 6.1 7.2 0.85 0.72 4.74 4.02 4.55 4.02 4.32 4.02

Sector A v erage - REIT s 6.3 7.0 0.72 0.64Hang Seng Index 3.4 3.8

@ denominated in RMB



HK Property

Share price movement comparison (%)

1- w k 2- w k 1- mt h 3- mt h 6- mth 1- y r Y T D 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Henderson Land 3.2 2.5 (1.2) (9.7) (4.0) (3.2) 1.3 41.7 (11.0) 35.0 (3.8) (4.5)K Wah Int'l 2.3 2.3 (7.2) (14.3) (4.9) 13.0 0.3 89.3 26.0 (10.0) (15.6) 12.6

Kerry Properties 2.6 2.6 (0.5) (14.9) 12.4 1.4 1.9 56.6 (33.2) 4.6 (24.9) (0.5)

Lai Sun Development 1.4 1.4 (3.9) (7.0) 22.7 28.1 0.0 192.0 (31.2) (15.9) (32.5) 28.1

MTR Corp 2.8 2.3 1.3 (10.4) (2.2) (0.1) 1.7 21.3 (3.8) 8.3 20.8 (1.8)New World Dev 3.3 2.2 (2.2) (16.5) 7.4 10.1 2.8 92.0 (16.3) (3.2) (14.1) 7.0

Sino Land 4.6 4.0 2.2 (15.6) (6.0) 4.8 2.4 26.0 (24.0) 18.1 (9.3) 2.3

SHKP 3.5 2.1 (0.3) (13.9) 8.2 7.6 2.8 19.4 (15.4) 20.3 (20.9) 4.7

Tai Cheung 1.2 1.2 2.4 8.6 6.7 9.8 0.0 33.7 (7.6) 8.7 (2.7) 9.8Wing Tai Properties 0.6 0.4 0.9 (4.3) 9.6 4.5 0.0 106.1 (5.7) 5.0 (10.4) 4.5Wheelock and Co. 4.6 3.1 0.1 (2.1) 24.3 38.0 3.2 102.7 (8.6) 1.5 (9.8) 33.7

Hang Lung Properties 5.1 2.5 (0.7) (4.3) 8.2 (4.2) 2.8 39.4 (20.5) (11.2) (18.9) (6.8)

HK Land 4.7 5.7 4.5 (8.6) 6.9 (7.0) 2.8 54.0 (15.6) 14.6 3.6 (9.6)Hysan Development 4.8 3.4 (2.5) (8.9) (2.5) 5.8 4.8 46.1 (10.3) 3.7 (8.4) 0.9

Swire Properties 2.8 2.6 (2.0) (3.1) 7.5 (1.3) 3.3 n.a. (24.2) 16.8 (2.2) (4.5)

Wharf Holdings 7.1 4.1 (3.3) (5.4) 14.6 25.1 4.4 72.6 (2.1) (5.6) (23.2) 19.9

Champion REIT 0.2 1.2 (3.9) (11.4) (3.9) 8.5 0.2 27.1 (7.5) 5.0 7.8 8.2Yuexiu REIT 2.5 0.5 (4.6) (12.9) (6.2) (1.0) 0.7 7.3 2.7 2.9 6.9 (1.7)

Link REIT 3.5 1.5 (3.3) (12.1) (3.6) 9.7 1.0 35.3 (2.8) 29.1 (4.4) 8.6

Regal REIT 2.5 2.0 1.0 (0.5) 5.1 6.7 0.5 24.0 0.5 (8.1) (5.4) 6.2

Sunlight REIT 2.9 3.4 (2.4) (7.7) 2.9 18.8 1.8 48.6 (9.1) 16.7 9.4 16.7Spring REIT 2.2 1.6 (2.7) (5.3) (4.7) 5.9 (0.3) n.a. n.a. 15.5 (17.2) 6.3

New Century REIT 0.0 (0.4) (0.8) 12.2 5.1 (14.1) 0.0 n.a. n.a. (9.3) (12.1) (14.1)

Great Eagle 10.1 9.0 7.2 5.1 20.1 46.4 0.3 68.6 3.3 (4.9) 0.2 46.0

Far East Consort.Intl. 2.1 4.0 (0.4) 6.5 44.3 19.8 0.9 89.8 40.7 8.9 3.5 18.8

HSI Index 2.7 1.9 (1.8) (6.1) 6.5 1.1 0.7 22.9 2.9 1.3 (7.2) 0.4

HSP Index 3.3 1.6 (3.5) (13.8) 0.0 (1.1) 2.0 37.6 (9.2) 7.2 (2.1) (3.1)

Source: Thomson Reuters


HK Property

Residential

What were the transaction trends in primary and secondary markets?

Primary market transaction volume

Primary market transaction value

0

500

1,000

1,500

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Jan-

09A

pr-0

9Ju

l-09

Oct

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pr-1

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-10

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-16

No of units Nov-16

-1.9% m-o-m

114.2% y-o-y

11M16

12.7% y-o-y

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

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35,000

Jan-

09A

pr-0

9Ju

l-09

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pr-1

0Ju

l-10

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-10

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11A

pr-1

1Ju

l-11

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-11

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12A

pr-1

2Ju

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-12

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13A

pr-1

3Ju

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14A

pr-1

4Ju

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15A

pr-1

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l-15

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-15

Jan-

16A

pr-1

6Ju

l-16

Oct

-16

HK$mNov-16

247.1% y-o-y

28.6% m-o-m

11M16

19.3% y-o-y

Source: Centaline Property Agency Source: Centaline Property Agency

Secondary market transaction volume

Secondary market transaction value

0

2,000

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2Ju

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-13

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15A

pr-1

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l-15

Oct

-15

Jan-

16A

pr-1

6Ju

l-16

Oct

-16

No of units Nov-16

4.2% m-o-m152.4% y-o-y

11M16

-7.7% y-o-y

0 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Jan-

09A

pr-0

9Ju

l-09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10A

pr-1

0Ju

l-10

Oct

-10

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11A

pr-1

1Ju

l-11

Oct

-11

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12A

pr-1

2Ju

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-12

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-13

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pr-1

4Ju

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-14

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15A

pr-1

5Ju

l-15

Oct

-15

Jan-

16A

pr-1

6Ju

l-16

Oct

-16

HK$mNov-16

169.9% y-o-y

6.3% m-o-m

11M16

-7.9% y-o-y



HK Property

Confirmor – Overall

Confirmor – Over HK$7m

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%

0 200 400 600 800

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

Jul-9

5Ju

l-96

Jul-9

7Ju

l-98

Jul-9

9Ju

l-00

Jul-0

1Ju

l-02

Jul-0

3Ju

l-04

Jul-0

5Ju

l-06

Jul-0

7Ju

l-08

Jul-0

9Ju

l-10

Jul-1

1Ju

l-12

Jul-1

3Ju

l-14

Jul-1

5Ju

l-16

No. of cases of confirmor (LHS)

As a % of total secondary registrations (RHS)

Nov-16 0, 0%

Oct-16 0, 0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jul-9

5Ju

l-96

Jul-9

7Ju

l-98

Jul-9

9Ju

l-00

Jul-0

1Ju

l-02

Jul-0

3Ju

l-04

Jul-0

5Ju

l-06

Jul-0

7Ju

l-08

Jul-0

9Ju

l-10

Jul-1

1Ju

l-12

Jul-1

3Ju

l-14

Jul-1

5Ju

l-16

No. of cases of confirmor (LHS)

As a % of over $7m secondary registrations (RHS)

Nov-16 0, 0%

Oct-16 0, 0%


Centa-City leading index (Secondary market price index)

Residential rents (Based on saleable area)

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

6

8

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

Mar

-09

Jul-0

9N

ov-0

9M

ar-1

0Ju

l-10

Nov

-10

Mar

-11

Jul-1

1N

ov-1

1M

ar-1

2Ju

l-12

Nov

-12

Mar

-13

Jul-1

3N

ov-1

3M

ar-1

4Ju

l-14

Nov

-14

Mar

-15

Jul-1

5N

ov-1

5M

ar-1

6Ju

l-16

Nov

-16

Mom growth (RHS) CCL Index (LHS)

%

0.5% m-o-m

6.9% ytd

Nov-16

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Hong Kong KowloonNew Territories East New Territories WestOverall

HK$psf Oct-16

Overall: 1.3% m-o-m1.2% y-o-y



HK Property

What are the factors affecting residential demand and supply?

Real GDP growth

Unemployment rate

(10)

(8)

(6)

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

6

8

10

1Q05

3Q05

1Q06

3Q06

1Q07

3Q07

1Q08

3Q08

1Q09

3Q09

1Q10

3Q10

1Q11

3Q11

1Q12

3Q12

1Q13

3Q13

1Q14

3Q14

1Q15

3Q15

1Q16

3Q16

%3Q16: 1.8% y-o-y

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jan/

01

Jan/

02

Jan/

03Ja

n/04

Jan/

05

Jan/

06

Jan/

07

Jan/

08Ja

n/09

Jan/

10

Jan/

11

Jan/

12

Jan/

13Ja

n/14

Jan/

15

Jan/

16

%Sep-16 -Nov-16: 3.3%

Aug-16 -Oct-16: 3.4%

Source: CEIC Source: CEIC

3-mth HIBOR vs Prime rate

Effective mortgage rate

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

3-mth HIBOR HK Prime rate

% Nov-16

3-mth HIBOR: 0.69%Prime rate: 5%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan-

96Ja

n-97

Jan-

98Ja

n-99

Jan-

00Ja

n-01

Jan-

02Ja

n-03

Jan-

04Ja

n-05

Jan-

06Ja

n-07

Jan-

08Ja

n-09

Jan-

10Ja

n-11

Jan-

12Ja

n-13

Jan-

14Ja

n-15

Jan-

16

% Nov-16: 1.78%

Oct-16: 1.70%

Source: CEIC Source: CEIC, DBS Vickers


HK Property

Housing affordability – private households

Rental yields (mass market projects) (Based on Saleable Area)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Jan-

94Ja

n-95

Jan-

96Ja

n-97

Jan-

98Ja

n-99

Jan-

00Ja

n-01

Jan-

02Ja

n-03

Jan-

04Ja

n-05

Jan-

06Ja

n-07

Jan-

08Ja

n-09

Jan-

10Ja

n-11

Jan-

12Ja

n-13

Jan-

14Ja

n-15

Jan-

16

Prime base HIBOR base

Prime base HIBOR base

Nov-16

Oct-16 51.7

52.2

49.5%

50.1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Jan-

96Ja

n-97

Jan-

98Ja

n-99

Jan-

00Ja

n-01

Jan-

02Ja

n-03

Jan-

04Ja

n-05

Jan-

06Ja

n-07

Jan-

08Ja

n-09

Jan-

10Ja

n-11

Jan-

12Ja

n-13

Jan-

14Ja

n-15

Jan-

16

Oct-163.22%

Source: Centaline Property Agencys Source: Centaline Property Agency

Yield spread

Housing supply

(10)

(8)

(6)

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

6

Jan-

96Ja

n-97

Jan-

98Ja

n-99

Jan-

00Ja

n-01

Jan-

02Ja

n-03

Jan-

04Ja

n-05

Jan-

06Ja

n-07

Jan-

08Ja

n-09

Jan-

10Ja

n-11

Jan-

12Ja

n-13

Jan-

14Ja

n-15

Jan-

16

%

Jun-03

Max:

3.77%

0 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

E20

17E

2018

E20

19E

2020

E

Completion No of primary units sold

Average

No of units

Average completion (96-15)

17,988 units

Source: CEIC, Centaline Property Agency, DBS Vickers Source: DBS Vickers


HK Property

What projects were launched?

Project Launches (Dec 2016)

NIL

Source: DBS Vickers

Occupation permits issued (Oct 2016)

Project s Locat ion Locat ion Dev elopers No of unit s

Kensington Hill Sai Ying Pun HK Wheelock 75

H. Bonaire Ap Lei Chau HK Henderson Land 10647 Cumberland Road Kowloon Tong KL Private Developer 10

279 Prince Edward Road West Ho Man Tin KL Yuexiu Property 18128-130 Nga Tsin Wai Road Kowloon City KL Private developer 26

Skypark Mong Kok KL New World Development 439 Source: Buildings Department


HK Property

Where are the upcoming projects?

Pre-sale consent granted (Nov 2016)

Project Dev elopers Locat ion Locat ion No. of unitNKIL 6517 Kln Kai Tak 624

Source: Lands Department

Pre-sale consent pending approval (Nov 2016)

Project Dev elopers Locat ion Locat ion No. of unitIL 8949 (Ph1) - HK Mid-levels 11512 Shiu Fai Terrace Chinese Estates HK Mid-levels 24IL 8920 - HK North Point 378IL 9027 RP (Ph1) SHKP HK North Point 355SIL 854 Wing Tai Props HK Shau Kei Wan 75RBL 1190 Nan Fung Group HK Shouson Peak 5445 Tai Tam Road National Electronics Consortium HK Tai Tam 7NKIL 6527 Poly Property Group Kln Kai Tak 930NKIL 6525 K&K Property Kln Kai Tak 822NKIL 6541 Wheelock & Co. Kln Kai Tak 648Cullinan West SHKP Kln West Kowloon 1,050Seanorama - NT Ma On Shan 454STTL 581 (Ph1) SHKP NT Ma On Shan 353STTL 581 (Ph2) SHKP NT Ma On Shan 67Lot 1588 in DD 243 V ice Chairman of Agile NT Sai Kung 8Marin Point Far East Consortium NT Sha Tau Kok 261STTL 567 Wing Tai Props/Manhattan Realty NT Shatin 158STTL 565 Wing Tai Props/Manhattan Realty NT Shatin 69La Cresta HKR/Nan Fung Group NT Shatin 61STTL 566 SHKP NT Shatin 59Mount V ienna Hanison Construction Holdings Ltd NT Shatin 12Eden Manor Henderson Land NT Sheung Shui 590TKOTL 126 Wheelock & Co. NT Tseung Kwan O 926The Pav ilia Bay New World/Vanke NT Tsuen Wan 983TWTL 401 (Ph3A) - NT Tsuen Wan 1,436TWTL 401 (Ph3) - NT Tsuen Wan 970L'Aquatique MCC NT Tsing Lung Tau 198TWTL 417 Chinachem/MTRC NT Tsuen Wan 953T Plus Chun Wo NT Tuen Mun 356CPTL 18 and TMTL 99 New World NT Tuen Mun 1008 Kwun Fat Street Emperor International NT Tuen Mun 14Grand YOHO Development (Ph2) SHKP NT Yuen Long 826

13,312

Source: Lands Department


HK Property

How about the office market?

Office rentals

Office capital values

0

50

100

150

200

250

Aug

-07

Dec

-07

Apr

-08

Aug

-08

Dec

-08

Apr

-09

Aug

-09

Dec

-09

Apr

-10

Aug

-10

Dec

-10

Apr

-11

Aug

-11

Dec

-11

Apr

-12

Aug

-12

Dec

-12

Apr

-13

Au g

-13

Dec

-13

Apr

-14

Aug

-14

Dec

-14

Apr

-15

Aug

-15

Dec

-15

Apr

-16

Au g

-16

Premium Central Traditional Central

HK$psf/mth P remium Central

Nov-16: 0.7% m-o-m

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Sep-

07Ja

n-08

Ma y

-08

Sep-

08Ja

n-09

Ma y

-09

Sep-

09Ja

n-10

May

-10

Sep-

10Ja

n-11

May

-11

Sep-

11Ja

n-12

Ma y

-12

Sep-

12Ja

n-13

May

-13

Sep-

13Ja

n-14

Ma y

-14

Sep-

14Ja

n-15

Ma y

-15

Sep-

15Ja

n-16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Overall Central

HK$psf/mth Nov-16

HK$30,776psf, 2.9% m-o-mOverall Ce ntral

Source: Knight Frank Source: Knight Frank

Office vacancy

Expectations to hire

1.42.5 3.0 2.5

10.7

4.8

1.52.7

1.62.5

10.7

4.7

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

10.011.012.0

Cen

tral

Wan

chai

/ Cau

sew

ay

Bay

HK

Eas

t

Tsim

shat

sui

Kow

loon

Eas

t

Ove

rall

Oct-16 Nov-16%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

4Q01

2Q02

4Q02

2Q03

4Q03

2Q04

4Q04

2Q05

4Q05

2Q06

4Q06

2Q07

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

2Q11

4Q11

2Q12

4Q12

2Q13

4Q13

2H14

2H15

2H16

%2H16

15.7%

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Source: Hudson Global Resources (HK)


HK Property

How about the retail market?

Private retail rent index

Private retail price index

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan/

93Ja

n/94

Jan/

95Ja

n/96

Jan/

97Ja

n/98

Jan/

99Ja

n/00

Jan/

01Ja

n/02

Jan/

03Ja

n/04

Jan/

05Ja

n/06

Jan/

07Ja

n/08

Jan/

09Ja

n/10

Jan/

11Ja

n/12

Jan/

13Ja

n/14

Jan/

15Ja

n/16

Rental Index (1999=100)

Oct-160.8% m-o-m-2.3% y-o-y

50

150

250

350

450

550

Jan/

93Ja

n/94

Jan/

95Ja

n/96

Jan/

97Ja

n/98

Jan/

99Ja

n/00

Jan/

01Ja

n/02

Jan/

03Ja

n/04

Jan/

05Ja

n/06

Jan/

07Ja

n/08

Jan/

09Ja

n/10

Jan/

11Ja

n/12

Jan/

13Ja

n/14

Jan/

15Ja

n/16

Price Index (1999=100)

Oct-161% m-o-m-8% y-o-y

Source: Rating and Valuation Department Source: Rating and Valuation Department

Overall retail sales growth

Monthly retail sales growth of jewelleries/watches

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

Jan

-08

Jul-

08Ja

n-0

9Ju

l-09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10Ja

n-1

1Ju

l-11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12Ja

n-1

3Ju

l-13

Jan

-14

Jul-

14Ja

n-1

5Ju

l-15

Jan

-16

Jul-

16

Yoy, % Oct-16: -2.9% y-o-y

10M16: -9.0% y-o-y

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Jan

-Feb

08

Jun

-08

Oct

-08

Mar

-09

Jul-

09N

ov-

09A

pr-

10A

ug-1

0D

ec-1

0M

ay-1

1S

e p-1

1Ja

n-F

eb 1

2Ju

n-1

2O

ct-1

2M

ar-1

3Ju

l-13

No

v-13

Ap

r-14

Aug

-14

Dec

-14

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan

-Feb

16

Jun

-16

Oct

-16

Yoy, % Oct-16: -0.1% y-o-y

10M16: -19.7% y-o-y



HK Property

Monthly retail sales growth of consumer durable goods

Monthly retail sales growth of supermarket items

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan

-Feb

08

Jun

-08

Oct

-08

Mar

-09

Jul-

09N

ov-

09A

pr-

10A

ug-1

0D

ec-1

0M

ay-1

1S

e p-1

1Ja

n-F

eb 1

2Ju

n-1

2O

ct-1

2M

ar-1

3Ju

l-13

No

v-13

Ap

r-14

Aug

-14

Dec

-14

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan

-Feb

16

Jun

-16

Oct

-16

Yoy, % Oct-16: -14.0% y-o-y

10M16: -21.3% y-o-

-202468

1012141618

Jan

-Feb

08

Jun

-08

Oct

-08

Mar

-09

Jul-

09N

ov-

09A

pr-

10A

u g-1

0D

ec-1

0M

a y-1

1S

e p-1

1Ja

n-F

eb 1

2Ju

n-1

2O

ct-1

2M

ar-1

3Ju

l-13

No

v-13

Ap

r-14

Aug

-14

Dec

-14

Ma y

-15

Se p

-15

Jan

-Feb

16

Jun

-16

Oct

-16

Yoy, % Oct-16: 3.5% y-o-y

10M16: 1.0% y-o-y


Visitor arrivals growth – overall

Visitor arrivals growth – China

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan/

08Ju

l/08

Jan/

09Ju

l/09

Jan/

10Ju

l/10

Jan/

11Ju

l/11

Jan/

12Ju

l/12

Jan/

13Ju

l/13

Jan/

14Ju

l/14

Jan/

15Ju

l/15

Jan/

16Ju

l/16

Yoy, % Nov-16: -2.1% y-o-y-5.4% y-o-y11M16:

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan/

08Ju

l/08

Jan/

09Ju

l/09

Jan/

10Ju

l/10

Jan/

11Ju

l/11

Jan/

12Ju

l/12

Jan/

13Ju

l/13

Jan/

14Ju

l/14

Jan/

15Ju

l/15

Jan/

16Ju

l/16

Yoy, %Nov-16: -3.5% y-o-y

-7.8% y-o-y11M16:



HK Property

What did corporates do?

Major corporate actions

Date Ev ent

9-Dec New World and China Merchant s (CMSIZ ) formed a joint venture to develop four parcels of land in Shekou, Shenzhen. 9-Dec A consort ium comprising Kerry Group (50%), Kerry Propert ies (25%) & Bank of East A sia (25%) have

acquired a site for mixed-use development in Qianhai, Shenzhen for Rmb3.02bn14-Dec Prada announced it will shut its store at the retail arcade of Peninsula Hotel in Tsim Sha Tsui at end-Dec16-Dec Link REIT has agreed to dispose of five non-core retail properties for HK$3.636bn at exit y ield of ~3.4%16-Dec Hanison Const ruct ion enters into an MOU to dispose agricultural land in Yuen Long for HK$250m17-Dec 21 developers submitted tenders for the Kai Tak residential site (NKIL 6562)19-Dec A unit at Far East F inancial Center in Admiralty was sold for a record price of HK$38,200psf19-Dec A China-based conglomerate won the tender for the residential site in Kai Tak for HK$5.412bn or HK$13,600psf.23-Dec A consortium led by Goldin F inancial won the tender of the first package of Ho Man Tin Station project (GFA: 742,700sf)

23-Dec Government announced that it would offer a business site in Cheung Sha Wan (NKIL 6505) for tender starting 30-Dec23-Dec 15 developers submitted tenders for the Kai Tak residential site (NKIL 6566)29-Dec K Wah Int ' l won the tender for Kai Tak residential site (NKIL 6566) for HK$5.87bn or HK$10,220 psf (GFA: 574,254sf)

Source: DBS Vickers


HK Property

Stake change by major shareholders

Company Dat e No o f shares Buy /Sell A v g p ric e A moun t(HK $ ) (HK $m)

Henderson L andLee Shau Kee 23-Dec-16 287,000 Buy 40.53 11.6Lee Shau Kee 22-Dec-16 230,000 Buy 40.66 9.4Lee Shau Kee 21-Dec-16 279,000 Buy 40.80 11.4Lee Shau Kee 19-Dec-16 345,000 Buy 40.98 14.1Lee Shau Kee 16-Dec-16 259,000 Buy 41.13 10.7Lee Shau Kee 15-Dec-16 215,000 Buy 41.14 8.8

K erry Propert iesKerry Group Limited 15-Dec-16 230,945 Buy 19.14 4.4

Sun Hung K ai Pro pert iesKwok F amily 23-Dec-16 177,000 Buy 97.33 17.2Kwok F amily 16-Dec-16 312,000 Buy 99.54 31.1Kwok F amily 15-Dec-16 562,000 Buy 99.92 56.2

G reat Eag leLo Ka Shui 23-Dec-16 114,000 Buy 33.86 3.9Lo Ka Shui 22-Dec-16 1,000 Sell 33.80 0.0Lo Ka Shui 22-Dec-16 79,000 Buy 34.04 2.7Lo Ka Shui 21-Dec-16 59,000 Buy 33.98 2.0Lo Ka Shui 20-Dec-16 134,000 Buy 34.04 4.6Lo Ka Shui 19-Dec-16 24,000 Buy 33.23 0.8Lo Ka Shui 16-Dec-16 164,000 Buy 33.36 5.5Lo Ka Shui 05-Dec-16 26,000 Buy 34.43 0.9

Source: HK Exchange


HK Property

Discount to NAV – Property developers & investors

Property developers

Henderson Land K.Wah International

(70)(60)(50)(40)(30)(20)(10)

0 10 20 30

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

%

Average: -31%

+2SD: 2%

+1SD: -15%

-1SD: -47%

-2SD: -63%

(85)(80)(75)(70)(65)(60)(55)(50)(45)(40)(35)

Sep-

09

Jul-1

0

May

-11

Apr

-12

Feb-

13

Dec

-13

Oct

-14

Aug

-15

Jul-1

6

%

Average: -63%

+2SD: -51%

+1SD: -57%

-1SD: -69%

-2SD: -76%

Kerry Properties MTR Corporation

(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

%

Average: -40%

+2SD: 13%

+1SD: -14%

-1SD: -66%

-2SD: -92%

(35)

(30)

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

May

-09

Nov

-09

Apr

-10

Sep-

10M

ar-1

1A

ug-1

1Ja

n-12

Jul-1

2D

ec-1

2M

ay-1

3N

ov-1

3A

pr-1

4Se

p-14

Mar

-15

Aug

-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Dec

-16

%

Average: -14%

+2SD: -2%

+1SD: -8%

-1SD: -20%

-2SD: -26%

New World Development Sino Land

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

Jul-0

6Ja

n-07

Jul-0

7Ja

n-08

Jul-0

8Ja

n-09

Jul-0

9Ja

n-10

Jul-1

0Ja

n-11

Jul-1

1Ja

n-12

Jul-1

2Ja

n-13

Jul-1

3Ja

n-14

Jul-1

4Ja

n-15

Jul-1

5Ja

n-16

Jul-1

6

%

Average: -50%

+2SD: -19%

+1SD: -34%

-1SD: -65%

-2SD: -80%

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

%

Average: -31%

+2SD: 11%

+1SD: -10%

-1SD: -52%

-2SD: -73%



HK Property

Property developers (continued)

Sun Hung Kai Properties Tai Cheung

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

%

Average: -25%

+2SD: 14%

+1SD: -5%

-1SD: -45%

-2SD: -64%

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Feb-

08A

ug-0

8Fe

b-09

Sep-

09M

ar-1

0Se

p-10

Apr

-11

Oct

-11

Apr

-12

Oct

-12

May

-13

Nov

-13

May

-14

Dec

-14

Jun-

15D

ec-1

5Ju

l-16

%

Average: -62%

+2SD: -46%

+1SD: -54%

-1SD: -70%

-2SD: -78%

Wheelock & Co. Sector average

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

%

Average: -29%

+2SD: -3%

+1SD: -16%

-1SD: -41%

-2SD: -54%

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

Jul/0

6

Aug

/08

Sep/

10

Oct

/12

Nov

/14

Dec

/16

%

+2SD: 3%

+1SD: -12%

Average: -26%

-1SD: -40%

-2SD: -55%



HK Property

Property investors

Hang Lung Properties Hong Kong Land

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

%

Average: -19%

+2SD: 26%

+1SD: 4%

-1SD: -42%

-2SD: -64%

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

%

Average: -25%

-2SD: -57%

-1SD: -41%

+1SD: -10%

+2SD: 6%

Hysan Swire Properties

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

8

Aug

-10

Aug

-12

Aug

-14

Sep-

16

%

Average: -39%

-2SD: -59%

-1SD: -49%

+1SD: -29%

+2SD: -19%

(55)(50)(45)(40)(35)(30)(25)(20)(15)(10)(5)

Jan-

12

Jun-

12

Nov

-12

Apr

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

Jun-

14

Nov

-14

Apr

-15

Sep-

15

Feb-

16

Jul-1

6

Nov

-16

%

Average: -34%

-2SD: -52%

-1SD: -43%

+1SD: -25%

+2SD: -16%

Wharf Sector average

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

%

Average: -30%

-2SD: -56%

-1SD: -43%

+1SD: -17%

+2SD: -3%

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

Jul-0

6

Aug

-08

Sep-

10

Oct

-12

Nov

-14

Dec

-16

%

Average: -26%

+2SD: 4%

+1SD: -10%

-1SD: -38%

-2SD: -52%



HK Property

Discount to NAV band – Property developers & investors

Property developers

Henderson Land K Wah International

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

HK$

-63%

-43%

-23%

-2%18%

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Sep-

09

Jul-1

0

May

-11

Apr

-12

Feb-

13

Dec

-13

Oct

-14

Aug

-15

Jul-1

6

HK$

-82%

-73%

-64%

-55%

-46%

Kerry Properties MTR Corporation

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

HK$

-77%

-24%

3%

30%

-50%

22

27

32

37

42

47

52

May

-09

Nov

-09

Apr

-10

Sep-

10M

ar-1

1A

ug-1

1Ja

n-12

Jul-1

2D

ec-1

2M

ay-1

3N

ov-1

3A

pr-1

4Se

p-14

Mar

-15

Aug

-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Dec

-16

HK$

-27%

-20%

-13%

-5%

2%

New World Development Sino Land

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

HK$

-81%-61%-42%

-22%

-2%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

HK$

-73%

-45%

-17%

12%

40%



HK Property

Property developers (continued)

Sun Hung Kai Properties Tai Cheung

20

70

120

170

220

270

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

HK$

-58%

-14%

8%

30%

-36%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Feb-

08A

u g-0

8Fe

b-09

Sep-

09M

ar-1

0Se

p-10

Apr

-11

Oct

-11

Apr

-12

Oct

-12

Ma y

-13

Nov

-13

May

-14

Dec

-14

Jun-

15D

ec-1

5Ju

l-16

HK$

-83%

-38%

-49%

-61%

-72%

Wheelock & Co.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

HK$

-47%-31%-15%

1%17%



HK Property

Property investors

Great Eagle Hang Lung Properties

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jul-0

6Ja

n-07

Jul-0

7Ja

n-08

Jul-0

8Ja

n-09

Jul-0

9Ja

n-10

Jul-1

0Ja

n-11

Jul-1

1Ja

n-12

Jul-1

2Ja

n-13

Jul-1

3Ja

n-14

Jul-1

4Ja

n-15

Jul-1

5Ja

n-16

Jul-1

6

HK$

-82%

-67%

-53%

-39%

-25%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

HK$

-61%

-37%

35%

13%

-9%

Hysan Swire Properties

3

13

23

33

43

53

63

Jul-0

6

Mar

-08

Nov

-09

Jul-1

1

Mar

-13

Nov

-14

Aug

-16

HK$

-69%

-54%

-40%

-25%

-10%

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan-

12

Jun-

12

Nov

-12

Apr

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

Jun-

14

Nov

-14

Apr

-15

Sep-

15

Feb-

16

Jul-1

6

Nov

-16

HK$

-51%

-42%

-32%

-23%

-13%

Wharf

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

HK$

-66%

-1%

-17%

-33%

-50%



HK Property

Price to book NAV band - REITs

REITs

Champion REIT Link REIT

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

May

-06

Nov

-06

Ma y

-07

Nov

-07

May

-08

Nov

-08

May

-09

Nov

-09

May

-10

Nov

-10

Ma y

-11

Nov

-11

Ma y

-12

Nov

-12

May

-13

Nov

-13

May

-14

Nov

-14

May

-15

Nov

-15

Ma y

-16

Nov

-16

HK$

0.2x

0.4x

0.5x

0.7x

0.9x

-55

152535455565758595

Nov

-05

Oct

-06

Sep-

07

Aug

-08

Jul-0

9

Jun-

10

May

-11

Apr

-12

Mar

-13

Feb-

14

Jan-

15

Dec

-15

Nov

-16

HK$

0.8x

1.0x

1.3x

1.5x

1.7x

Sunlight REIT

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Dec

-06

Apr

-08

Aug

-09

Nov

-10

Mar

-12

Jul-1

3

Oct

-14

Feb-

16

HK$

0.3x

0.4x

0.6x

0.8x

0.9x



HK Property

Historical yield band - REITs

REITs

Champion REIT Link REIT

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

May

-06

Nov

-06

Ma y

-07

Nov

-07

May

-08

Nov

-08

May

-09

Nov

-09

Ma y

-10

Nov

-10

May

-11

Nov

-11

May

-12

Nov

-12

Ma y

-13

Nov

-13

Ma y

-14

Nov

-14

Ma y

-15

Nov

-15

Ma y

-16

Nov

-16

HK$

Floor 24%

Ceiling 4%

Champion REIT

Mid 14%

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

Nov

-05

Oct

-06

Sep-

07

Aug

-08

Jul-0

9

Jun-

10

May

-11

Apr

-12

Mar

-13

Feb-

14

Jan-

15

Dec

-15

Nov

-16

HK$

Link REIT

Ceiling 3% Mid 5%

Floor 7%

Sunlight REIT

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Dec

-06

Apr

-08

Aug

-09

Nov

-10

Mar

-12

Jul-1

3

Oct

-14

Feb-

16

HK$

Sunlight REIT

Ceiling 5%

Mid 15%

Floor 25%



HK Property

Any important dates to look out for?

Major upcoming events

3-Jan Retail statistics for Nov 201619-Jan Unemployment rate Oct 2016 - Dec 201620-Jan NKIL 6564 Tender Close23-Jan CPI December 2016

3-Feb Retail statistics for Dec 201610-Feb NKIL 6505 Tender Close20-Feb Unemployment rate Nov 2016 - Jan 201621-Feb CPI January 201722-Feb GDP 4Q1627-Feb Year-end Population 2016

F ebruary 2017

J anuary 2017

Source: Census and Statistics Department, Lands Department, HK Exchange, DBS Vickers


HK Property

Our past publications

1 Sep (HK Property) Growing office supply in Kowloon East 2 Sep (Sunlight REIT) FY16 Results Preview 6 Sep (Sunlight REIT) Ongoing revitalisation initiatives to unlock hidden value 7 Sep (SHKP ) FY16 results preview 9 Sep (SHKP ) Firing on all cylinders 19 Sep (Lai Sun Development) New project launch to unlock embedded value 19 Sep (Henderson Land ) Windfall profit from property disposal 22 Sep (New World Development) Right direction 28 Sep (Far East Consortium) Encouraging project sales, recovering hotel operations

4 Oct (Hong Kong Property Sector) Retail supply in focus 5 Oct (Wharf Holdings) Realising the value of telecom business 6 Oct (Link REIT) Solid retail leasing performance 13 Oct (Sunlight REIT) Asset enhancement initiative to bear fruit soon 20 Oct (Lai Sun Development) Harvest season is coming 24 Oct (Wharf Holdings) Mount Nicholson apartments well sought after 25 Oct (Lai Sun Development) Overwhelming response to the Alto Residences launch 25 Oct (Tai Cheung) To benefit from robust demand for luxury homes 31 Oct (Link REIT) Optimising asset mix 31 Oct (Swire Properties ) Value of Kowloon Bay office project realised

3 Nov (HK Property Sector) China firms bidding aggressively 3 Nov (HK Property) Hotel supply in focus 4 Nov (HK Property Sector) Investment appetite and Mainland Chinese demand return 7 Nov (HK Property Sector) Goodbye residential investors! 7 Nov (Link REIT) 1HFY17 result preview 10 Nov (Link REIT) Quality play in uncertain times 10 Nov (Hysan Development ) Foray into residential market 10 Nov (Hongkong Land) Tight supply to support positive office reversion 14 Nov (Swire Properties ) Office remains a bright spot 17 Nov (HK Property) Local developer replenishing land bank 22 Nov (Far East Consortium) Interim result preview 24 Nov (Far East Consortium) Strong development profit lifts earnings 28 Nov (Wharf Holdings) Narrowing decline in retail tenants?sales 28 Nov (Tai Cheung) Interim result preview

1 Dec (Tai Cheung) Strong asset backing, robust financial strength 2 Dec (HK Property) Wong Chuk Hang office market under spotlight 7 Dec (Hysan Development ) Challenging times 14 Dec (MTR Corporation) Assessing returns from new rail projects 19 Dec (Link REIT) Attractive exit yield amid rising interest rate environment 20 Dec (Property Sector) Wuxi/Shanghai mall visit takeaway: Is the worst over? 29 Dec (Far East Consortium) Diversified asset base, high earnings visibility 29 Dec (Wing Tai Properties) Too much value to ignore

3 Jan (Wheelock) Strong sales to unlock value J anuary 2017

Nov ember 2016

December 2016

October 2016

September 2016

Source: DBS Vickers


HK Property

DBSVHK recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:

STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)

BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)

HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)

FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)

SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)

Share price appreciation + dividends Completed Date: 4 Jan 2017 11:41:43 (HKT) Dissemination Date: 4 Jan 2017 14:25:01 (HKT)

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited (“DBSVHK”). This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd., DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd. (“DBSVS”) and DBSVHK, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBSVHK. The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS and DBSVHK, its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents (collectively, the “DBS Group”)) do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate independent legal or financial advice. The DBS Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss (including any claims for loss of profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The DBS Group, along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. The DBS Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies. Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed, it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report and the DBS Group is under no obligation to update the information in this report. This publication has not been reviewed or authorized by any regulatory authority in Singapore, Hong Kong or elsewhere. There is no planned schedule or frequency for updating research publication relating to any issuer. The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIED UPON as a representation and/or warranty by the DBS Group (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that: (a) such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and (b) there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments

stated therein. Please contact the primary analyst for valuation methodologies and assumptions associated with the covered companies or price targets. Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies) mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating to the commodity referred to in this report. DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ("DBSVUSA"), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research department, has not participated in any public offering of securities as a manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction in the past twelve months and does not engage in market-making.


HK Property

ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst(s) also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. The DBS Group has procedures in place to eliminate, avoid and manage any potential conflicts of interests that may arise in connection with the production of research reports. As of 4 January 2017, the analyst(s) and his/her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst(s), do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities). The research analyst(s) responsible for this report operates as part of a separate and independent team to the investment banking function of the DBS Group and procedures are in place to ensure that confidential information held by either the research or investment banking function is handled appropriately.

COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES 1. DBSVHK and its subsidiaries do not have a proprietary position in the securities recommended/mentioned in this report as of 03 Jan

2017.

2. DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVHK, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates have a net long position exceeding 0.5% of the total issued share capital in Jinmao Investments & Jinmao (China) (6139 HK) and Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (405 HK) recommended in this report as of 29 Dec 2016.

3. DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVHK, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates beneficially own a total of 1% of any class of common equity securities of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (405 HK) as of 29 Dec 2016.

4. Compensation for investment banking services: DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVHK, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA have received compensation, within the past 12 months for investment banking services from Far East Consortium International Limited (35 HK), Link Real Estate Investment Trust (823 HK) and Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (405 HK) as of 30 Nov 2016. DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVHK, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA, within the next 3 months, will receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from The Bank of East Asia Limited (23 HK) as of 30 Nov 2016. DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVHK, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA have managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for Far East Consortium International Limited (35 HK) and Link Real Estate Investment Trust (823 HK) in the past 12 months, as of 30 Nov 2016. DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any public offering of securities as a manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively.

5. Disclosure of previous investment recommendation produced: DBS Bank Ltd, DBSVS, DBSVHK, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA may have published other investment recommendations in respect of the same securities / instruments recommended in this research report during the preceding 12 months. Please contact the primary analyst listed in the first page of this report to view previous investment recommendations published by DBS Bank Ltd, DBSVHK, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA in the preceding 12 months.

RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION

General This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Australia This report is being distributed in Australia by DBS Bank Ltd. (“DBS”) or DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“DBSVS”) or DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited (“DBSVHK”), which are exempted from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under the Corporation Act 2001 (“CA”) in respect of financial services provided to the recipients. Both DBS and DBSVS are regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the laws of Singapore, and DBSVHK is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong under the laws of Hong Kong, which differ from Australian laws. Distribution of this report is intended only for “wholesale investors” within the meaning of the CA.

Hong Kong This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by DBSVHK which is licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission.

Indonesia This report is being distributed in Indonesia by PT DBS Vickers Securities Indonesia.


HK Property

Malaysia This report is distributed in Malaysia by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd ("ADBSR"). Recipients of this report, received

from ADBSR are to contact the undersigned at 603-2604 3333 in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with this report. In addition to the General Disclosure/Disclaimer found at the preceding page, recipients of this report are advised that ADBSR (the preparer of this report), its holding company Alliance Investment Bank Berhad, their respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates, their directors, officers, employees, agents and parties related or associated with any of them may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services for the subject companies. They may also have received compensation and/or seek to obtain compensation for broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services from the subject companies.

Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director, ADBSR

Singapore This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) or DBSVS (Company Regn No. 198600294G), both of which are Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBSVS, may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 6327 2288 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

Thailand This report is being distributed in Thailand by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd. Research reports distributed are only intended for institutional clients only and no other person may act upon it.

United Kingdom

This report is produced by DBSVHK which is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. This report is disseminated in the United Kingdom by DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd (“DBSVUK”). DBSVUK is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom. In respect of the United Kingdom, this report is solely intended for the clients of DBSVUK, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBSVUK. This communication is directed at persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments. Any investment activity following from this communication will only be engaged in with such persons. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely on this communication.

Dubai

This research report is being distributed in The Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”) by DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) having its office at PO Box 506538, 3rd Floor, Building 3, East Wing, Gate Precinct, Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), Dubai, United Arab Emirates. DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) is regulated by The Dubai Financial Services Authority. This research report is intended only for professional clients (as defined in the DFSA rulebook) and no other person may act upon it.

United States This report was prepared by DBSVHK. DBSVUSA did not participate in its preparation. The research analyst(s) named on this report are not registered as research analysts with FINRA and are not associated persons of DBSVUSA. The research analyst(s) are not subject to FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on analyst compensation, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst. This report is being distributed in the United States by DBSVUSA, which accepts responsibility for its contents. This report may only be distributed to Major U.S. Institutional Investors (as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6) and to such other institutional investors and qualified persons as DBSVUSA may authorize. Any U.S. person receiving this report who wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact DBSVUSA directly and not its affiliate.

Other jurisdictions

In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is intended only for qualified, professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions.

DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited

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Tel: (852) 2820-4888, Fax: (852) 2868-1523

Company Regn. No. 31758

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