China / Hong Kong Industry Focus China Property Sector · grew 19% from last year. Yanlord, CIFI,...

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ed-JS / sa- AH

Favourable policies to boost 4Q sales • Expect strong 4Q15 sales from developers as they

accelerate new launches to meet full-year targets

• Favourable policy environment to support the market. Following Chongqing, Shenyang and Qingyuan, more local governments are expected to follow suit

• Valuations are recovering; pick quality names and those with limited downside

Developers' Sep contracted sales picked up after Aug. Contracted sales of 30 listed developers increased 11% m-o-m, following a 2% m-o-m decline in Aug. 9M15 sales grew 19% from last year. Yanlord, CIFI, R&F, CC Land, Glorious, and Hopson achieved record year high monthly sales in Sep. Contracted sales locked-in ratio reached 71% of target as of end-Sep. To meet the full-year target, 4Q monthly sales will need to pick up 54% from 9M15 or 14% y-o-y. To this end, we believe developers will push for new launches in 4Q15 as what they did in June. Along with supportive policies, we believe developers will be able to achieve >10% y-o-y growth on average in 2015 contracted sales, despite a high base in 4Q14.

Local governments keep kicking in supportive measures to spur demand. The 25% down payment requirement is being gradually implemented in various cities. Shenyang is supporting the market by offering tax breaks to both first time and upgrade buyers and subsidising home purchases during the Autumn Property Trade Fair. Qingyuan is subsidising low income families and civil servants up to Rmb48k in cash starting Oct 1, 2015. Chongqing is allowing developers to slow down their construction starts and completions, and reduce commercial components in their project planning. It is also urging banks to support developers’ development loans and apply the 25% down payment requirement. We expect more local governments to follow suit.

Valuations are recovering while some are still trading near their trough levels. The sector is trading at 6.0x FY16F PE, up from the trough level of 5.1x in late Aug 2015. Country Garden, Longfor, Franshion, and COGO are trading at PEs close to their 2011 trough levels. Thus, we believe these stocks have limited downside. We also like CR Land, COLI and Vanke for their strong fundamentals.

HSI: 23,067

ANALYST Danielle WANG, CFA · (852) 2820 4915· danielle_wang @hk.dbsvickers.com Carol WU · (852) 2863 8841· [email protected] Ken HE, CFA +86 21 6888 3375 [email protected] Andy YEE, CFA · (852) 2971 1773· [email protected]

Recommendation & valuation

F Y 15F

PEHK $ HK $ US$bn x

China Ov erseas(688 HK)

25.90 38.96 Buy 33 8.3

CR Land(1109 HK)

21.50 24.98 Buy 19 11.8

China V anke 'H'(2202 HK)

18.24 23.41 Buy 26 9.7

Company Pric eM k tCapRec

T argetPric e

Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Vickers

DBS Group Research . Equity 16 October 2015

China / Hong Kong Industry Focus

China Property Sector Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Industry Focus

China Property Sector

Daily average sales volumes for 25 cities: Daily average for 15D-Oct was 2% lower than Sept

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Beiji

ng

Shan

gha

i

Gu

ang

zhou

Shen

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Ch

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Han

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31

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Aug-2015 Sep-2015 15D Oct, 2015

k sm

Source: NBS; DBS Vickers

Industry Focus


9M15 sales: Developers on average has locked in 71% of sales target

86%70%

68%63%

81%76%

65%67%

66%62%

66%88%

52%52%

113%

70%75%

69%

126%

64%63%76%56%57%

64%74%

55%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000

2015 Pre-sales target (RHS) 9M15 Pre-sales (LHS)

Pre-sales lock-in ratio Average lock-in ratio

RMB mnAverage=71%

^ Converted from HKD to RMB

* Sales targets based on our estimates

Source: DBS Vickers; Company

Industry Focus


9M15 sales: Most developers recorded y-o-y growth in 9M15 contracted sales

21%

31% 20%21%

4%

43%

0%

-8%-1%10%

4%

-17%

30%

-6%

25%14%

213%

16%

90%

-3%

24%

202%

63%

14%16%

16%

136%

63%75%

9%16%

-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%220%240%260%280%300%

-10,0000

10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

100,000110,000120,000130,000140,000150,000

9M15 Pre-sales Y-o-Y growth

RMB mn


* Sales targets based on our estimates


Industry Focus


Contracted ASP: More than half of the developers recorded higher ASP in Sept compared with 2014.

-27%-11%-11%

-8%-8%

-7%-7% -6% -3%-1% -1% 0%

3% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 10%13%14% 14%16% 16%18%19%22%43%51%

-120%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%

(60,000)

(40,000)

(20,000)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

Cen

tral

Chi

na

C C

Lan

d

R&F

Hop

son

Agi

le

Sino

-Oce

an

Yuz

hou

Yue

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Prop

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Cou

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Gar

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Shim

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Poly

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Van

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Pow

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Fran

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Glo

rious

Pro

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Shui

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Land

Shen

zhen

Inve

stm

ent

Sept-15 2014 ASP (RMB/sm) % change

RMB/smRe corded ASP drops Re corded ASP increases



Industry Focus


Shanghai property market performance Beijing property market performance

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Jan-

05

Oct

-06

Jul-0

8

Apr

-10

Jan-

12

Oct

-13

Aug

-15

RMB/sm000 sm

Volume (LHS) Annual avg vol (LHS)Price (RHS)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan-

05

Oct

-06

Jul-0

8

Apr

-10

Jan-

12

Oct

-13

Aug

-15

RMB/sm000 sm


Shenzhen property market performance Chongqing property market performance

05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

Jan-

05

Oct

-06

Jul-0

8

Apr

-10

Jan-

12

Oct

-13

Aug

-15

RMB/sm000 sm


01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Jan-

06Ju

n-06

Nov

-06

Apr

-07

Sep-

07Fe

b-08

Jul-0

8D

ec-0

8M

ay-0

9O

ct-0

9M

ar-1

0A

ug-1

0Ja

n-11

Jun-

11N

ov-1

1A

pr-1

2Se

p-12

Feb-

13Ju

l-13

Dec

-13

Ma y

-14

Oct

-14

Mar

-15

Aug

-15

RMB/sm000 sm


Note: the above data only refers to Chongqing downtown.

Guangzhou property market performance

Tianjin property market performance

02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,000

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

Jan-

06Ju

n-06

Nov

-06

Apr

-07

Sep-

07Fe

b-08

Jul-0

8D

ec-0

8M

a y-0

9O

ct-0

9M

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ug-1

0Ja

n-11

Jun-

11N

ov-1

1A

pr-1

2Se

p-12

Feb-

13Ju

l-13

Dec

-13

Ma y

-14

Oct

-14

Mar

-15

Au g

-15

RMB/sm000 sm

Volume (LHS) Annual avg vol (LHS)

Price (RHS)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,600

Jan-

05

Oct

-06

Jul-0

8

Apr

-10

Jan-

12

Oct

-13

Aug

-15

RMB/sm000 sm


Source: CEIC, Soufun, DBS Vickers

Industry Focus


Wuhan property market performance

Hangzhou property market performance (downtown)

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan-

06Ju

n-06

Nov

-06

Apr

-07

Sep-

07Fe

b-08

Jul-0

8D

ec-0

8M

ay-0

9O

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9M

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Jun-

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pr-1

2Se

p-12

Feb-

13Ju

l-13

Dec

-13

May

-14

Oct

-14

Mar

-15

Aug

-15

RMB/sm000 sm


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Jan

-06

Jun

-06

No

v-0

6A

pr-

07

Sep

-07

Feb

-08

Jul-

08

Dec

-08

May

-09

Oct

-09

Mar

-10

Au

g-1

0Ja

n-1

1Ju

n-1

1N

ov-

11

Ap

r-1

2Se

p-1

2Fe

b-1

3Ju

l-1

3D

ec-1

3M

ay-1

4O

ct-1

4M

ar-1

5A

ug

-15

RMB/sm000 sm

Volume (LHS) Annual avg vol (LHS)

Price (RHS)

Chengdu property market performance

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Jan-

08

Aug

-08

Mar

-09

Oct

-09

May

-10

Dec

-10

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Aug

-12

Apr

-13

Oct

-13

Jun-

14

Dec

-14

Aug

-15

RMB/sm000 sm


Source: CEIC, Soufun, DBS Vickers

Industry Focus


Valuation comparison

3- mt hdaily Net D isc /

M k t t rad ing 12- m EPS g t h PE PE Y ield Y ield RO E RO E G earing P/Bk NA V (Prem)Pric e Cap v alue Rec om t arget 15F 16F 15F 16F 14A 15F 15F 16F 1H15 1H15 t o NA V

Company Name Code HK $ US$bn US$m HK $ % % x x % % % % % x HK $ %

L arge c apChina Ov erseas* 688 HK 25.9 33.0 81.0 Buy 38.96 (8) 7 8.3 7.8 2.1 2.5 17.2 15.5 13.0 1.4 25.4 (1.8)Country Garden* 2007 HK 3.04 8.9 7.3 Buy 4.86 (20) 8 5.7 5.3 5.4 5.7 15.4 14.8 54.1 0.9 4.4 30.9CR Land* 1109 HK 21.5 19.2 40.3 Buy 24.98 (28) 16 11.8 10.2 2.3 2.3 11.0 10.9 39.4 1.3 27.5 21.9China V anke 'H'* 2202 HK 18.24 26.0 22.0 Buy 23.41 8 17 9.7 8.3 3.3 3.6 18.2 18.6 15.8 1.9 22.4 18.5Dalian Wanda 'H' 3699 HK 51.3 30.0 22.1 NR n.a. (40) 24 10.5 8.5 2.3 2.8 11.5 13.6 73.7 1.2 n.a. n.a.Ev ergrande* 3333 HK 5.2 9.7 42.4 Hold 5.35 (50) 37 10.0 7.3 9.9 2.5 5.7 7.8 85.8 1.2 9.4 44.8Longfor 960 HK 10.28 7.7 3.9 NR n.a. (19) 11 6.8 6.1 3.4 3.5 14.4 14.1 61.1 1.0 n.a. n.a.Shimao Property * 813 HK 13.68 6.1 14.2 Buy 13.50 (7) 6 5.2 4.9 6.3 6.6 15.2 14.6 57.5 0.8 28.5 52.0A v erage (21 ) 16 8 .5 7 .3 4 .4 3 .7 13 .6 13 .7 50 .1 1 .2 27 .7

M id capAgile Property * 3383 HK 4.38 2.2 5.1 Hold 3.66 (27) (10) 4.1 4.6 9.0 6.1 8.8 7.4 72.4 0.4 16.6 73.7China South City *^^ 1668 HK 2.05 2.1 4.9 Buy 2.96 (45) 17 7.6 6.5 6.8 5.6 8.1 9.1 65.3 0.7 5.2 60.4COGO* 81 HK 2.53 0.7 0.8 Buy 4.30 29 49 3.5 2.4 2.0 2.0 12.5 16.1 81.4 0.3 9.2 72.4China J inmao Hldgs* 817 HK 2.26 3.1 3.5 Buy 2.97 (47) 24 7.8 6.3 5.1 3.8 7.9 9.3 49.5 0.6 4.5 50.1Greentown 3900 HK 6.63 1.8 4.1 NR n.a. 65 8 4.1 3.8 0.0 3.8 10.7 10.8 78.0 0.5 18.5 64.2Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 7.8 3.2 7.0 NR n.a. 4 10 3.8 3.4 0.0 8.2 13.0 12.8 119.4 0.6 18.1 56.9Hopson Dev 754 HK 6.54 1.9 0.9 NR n.a. (57) 7 11.7 10.9 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.0 73.5 0.3 n.a. n.a.KWG Property 1813 HK 5.81 2.2 5.5 NR n.a. (8) 20 4.6 3.9 6.9 7.4 14.1 15.2 69.8 0.7 10.8 46.3Poly (Hong Kong) 119 HK 2.51 1.2 6.2 NR n.a. (63) 42 26.4 18.6 3.0 1.3 1.5 2.6 109.2 0.3 13.1 80.8Shenzhen Inv 604 HK 3.24 3.1 6.9 NR n.a. (30) 13 8.6 7.6 4.9 5.3 8.8 9.1 57.7 0.7 n.a. n.a.Shui On Land* 272 HK 2.12 2.2 3.7 Hold 1.97 (131) n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.9 0.4 (1.5) (0.3) 86.9 0.4 4.9 56.9Sino-Ocean Land* 3377 HK 4.65 4.5 4.6 Buy 6.70 (21) 26 8.2 6.5 5.1 4.0 8.3 9.7 62.6 0.6 8.4 44.4Soho China* 410 HK 3.78 2.5 5.2 F V 3.60 (93) 67 58.9 35.3 8.0 0.9 0.7 1.2 26.4 0.4 9.0 57.9Sunac China 1918 HK 4.88 2.1 12.6 NR n.a. 12 23 3.7 3.0 4.8 5.1 20.0 21.1 70.7 0.8 n.a. n.a.Yanlord Land*^ YLLG SP 1.04 1.5 1.3 Buy 1.34 (29) 44 10.3 7.2 1.3 1.4 4.6 6.4 39.2 0.5 1.9 46.6Yuexiu Property * 123 HK 1.39 2.2 4.3 Hold 1.49 (41) 16 8.4 7.2 5.2 5.0 5.7 6.3 65.5 0.5 3.1 55.4A v erage# (18 ) 21 8 .1 6 .6 3 .9 4 .2 9 .0 9 .8 72 .5 0 .5 59 .2

Small c apBJ Cap Land 'H' 2868 HK 3.64 1.0 2.3 NR n.a. (8) 24 3.9 3.1 8.4 6.8 13.4 16.7 155.3 0.7 n.a. n.a.BJ North Star 'H' 588 HK 2.51 1.1 1.2 NR n.a. 6 12 8.4 7.5 2.9 3.4 4.7 4.8 84.7 0.4 n.a. n.a.C C Land* 1224 HK 2.11 0.7 0.5 Hold 2.06 6 (79) 4.8 23.2 2.4 4.1 7.4 1.5 19.9 0.4 2.8 23.8Central China* 832 HK 1.66 0.5 0.3 Buy 1.89 (15) 8 4.4 4.1 8.0 6.8 11.1 11.2 66.9 0.5 6.1 72.6China SCE 1966 HK 1.74 0.8 0.5 NR n.a. 11 24 4.9 3.9 0.0 5.1 15.1 15.7 62.0 0.7 n.a. n.a.CIF I Holdings 884 HK 1.62 1.4 2.1 NR n.a. 15 20 3.7 3.1 8.3 7.3 19.1 19.3 72.5 0.8 n.a. n.a.F irst Sponsor*^ F SG SP 1.185 0.5 0.1 Buy 1.57 112 13 12.9 11.4 1.7 1.4 5.9 6.4 n.a. 0.7 2.0 42.1Glorious Property 845 HK 1 1.0 0.3 NR n.a. (127) (63) 8.0 21.5 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.9 142.5 0.4 5.9 83.0Hy doo Int'l 1396 HK 1.1 0.6 0.2 NR n.a. 42 28 5.0 3.9 5.2 7.8 16.0 n.a. 60.4 0.8 n.a. n.a.Kaisa Group 1638 HK 1.56 1.0 0.0 NR n.a. 14 22 2.2 1.8 11.9 13.5 16.4 14.9 70.4 0.3 n.a. n.a.Lai Fung* 1125 HK 0.138 0.3 0.1 NR n.a. (79) 50 9.8 6.5 2.2 2.2 1.8 2.6 24.3 0.2 0.6 76.2Minmetals Land 230 HK 0.8 0.3 0.1 NR n.a. 43 44 4.4 3.1 1.9 2.3 7.3 9.7 45.4 0.3 n.a. n.a.Powerlong 1238 HK 1.63 0.8 0.5 NR n.a. (16) 21 4.6 3.8 4.7 4.9 5.6 8.0 68.3 0.3 n.a. n.a.Renhe Commercial 1387 HK 0.43 2.4 2.4 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 26.0 0.5 2.7 84.3Road King 1098 HK 6.76 0.6 0.3 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. 81.8 0.4 n.a. n.a.Greenland* 337 HK 3.66 1.2 4.3 Buy 8.28 345 195.9 16.6 5.4 0.0 0.0 7.7 18.7 193.0 1.1 6.4 42.5SRE Group 1207 HK 0.39 0.3 1.2 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 182.3 0.3 n.a. n.a.Wuzhou Int'l 1369 HK 1.21 0.8 1.8 NR n.a. (10) 61 19.8 12.3 0.0 0.0 6.4 10.0 81.4 1.2 n.a. n.a.Ying Li YINGLI SP 0.183 0.3 0.6 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.5 0.9 80.1Yuzhou Properties* 1628 HK 1.89 0.9 1.1 NR n.a. 31 39 3.3 2.4 7.0 9.3 18.3 21.7 69.0 0.7 5.0 62.2Zhong An 672 HK 0.88 0.3 0.1 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 75.2 0.3 n.a. n.a.A v erage** (1 ) 12 6 .0 4 .5 3 .9 5 .5 10 .9 11 .3 80.2 0 .5 67 .7

A v erage (O v erall)@ (12 ) 16 7 .4 6 .0 4 .0 4 .6 10 .8 11 .3 71.3 0 .7 53 .2~

16- O c t

^ Denominated in SGD for price

~ Simple average discount to NAV; Market cap weighted average NAV = 29%

# Exclude Soho China & Shui On Land ** Exclude Greenland, First Sponsor & Lai Fung

@ Exclude Soho China, Shui On Land, Greenland, First Sponsor & Lai Fung

^^ FY15: 16F; FY16: FY17F

Source: Thomson Reuters, *DBS Vickers

Industry Focus


PE valuations, 2007 to 2014 (based on earnings forecasts)

16- O c t M k t 15F 16F PE

Company Name CodePric eHK $

CapUS$bn

PEx

PEx

T rough07- 08

Peak07- 08

T rough2009

Peak2009

T rough2010

Peak2010

T rough2011

Peak2011

T rough2012

Peak2012

T rough2013

Peak2013

T rough2014

Peak2014

China Overseas* 688 HK 25.90 33.0 8.3 7.8 9.8 37.8 11.2 25.3 12.9 17.2 6.6 12.2 7.2 12.5 7.9 11.4 6.2 8.6Country Garden* 2007 HK 3.04 8.9 5.7 5.3 3.6 50.2 5.2 20.3 10.7 16.7 5.2 11.6 5.8 9.2 6.5 10.0 4.0 6.4CR Land* 1109 HK 21.50 19.2 11.8 10.2 15.9 69.0 13.1 30.4 14.4 21.1 7.2 15.2 10.1 17.6 11.9 16.2 7.1 10.7China V anke 'H'* 2202 HK 18.24 26.0 9.7 8.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.3 9.0Dalian Wanda 'H' 3699 HK 51.30 30.0 10.5 8.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.Evergrande* 3333 HK 5.20 9.7 10.0 7.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.8 9.1 2.9 8.9 3.3 6.1 4.2 6.4 3.4 4.6Longfor 960 HK 10.28 7.7 6.8 6.1 n.a. n.a. 17.8 24.4 13.8 21.7 6.3 14.2 5.6 11.9 7.4 10.4 5.3 6.9Shimao Property* 813 HK 13.68 6.1 5.2 4.9 3.8 30.0 4.2 18.4 8.6 13.3 3.6 9.7 3.9 9.5 6.4 8.8 4.3 6.1A v erage 8 .5 7 .3 8 .3 46.8 10.3 23.7 10 .7 16.5 5 .3 12 .0 6 .0 11 .1 7 .4 10 .5 5 .2 7 .5

Agile Property * 3383 HK 4.38 2.2 4.1 4.6 1.6 36.9 4.7 21.0 8.5 13.7 2.7 11.1 3.8 7.1 4.0 7.6 2.4 4.3China South City *^^ 1668 HK 2.05 2.1 7.6 6.5 n.a. n.a. 17.7 19.6 6.9 20.4 4.3 12.3 5.9 6.6 4.3 6.9 5.1 11.8COGO* 81 HK 2.53 0.7 3.5 2.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.6 9.8 5.0 9.8 6.3 10.0 3.1 5.1China J inmao Hldgs* 817 HK 2.26 3.1 7.8 6.3 5.5 48.2 6.9 21.8 15.0 19.1 6.1 16.8 6.0 10.3 7.3 9.3 4.8 6.8Greentown 3900 HK 6.63 1.8 4.1 3.8 1.9 15.7 2.3 18.3 6.3 10.2 2.0 6.1 1.5 6.3 3.3 6.6 2.3 4.5Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 7.80 3.2 3.8 3.4 2.4 41.2 4.8 17.8 6.8 10.5 3.2 8.0 3.2 7.4 4.7 8.1 3.8 4.8Hopson Dev 754 HK 6.54 1.9 11.7 10.9 1.0 21.0 2.2 10.3 4.9 7.5 2.8 6.4 2.8 16.0 5.6 13.7 3.9 16.1KWG Property 1813 HK 5.81 2.2 4.6 3.9 2.1 34.3 2.9 22.1 8.0 14.2 3.1 9.9 2.8 6.6 3.7 6.6 2.9 5.2Poly (Hong Kong) 119 HK 2.51 1.2 26.4 18.6 10.0 30.0 3.8 51.0 14.9 25.2 4.2 16.1 4.9 9.8 5.2 9.9 3.9 6.4Shenzhen Inv 604 HK 3.24 3.1 8.6 7.6 2.1 22.8 4.2 14.9 6.5 9.5 3.8 9.0 4.6 8.6 6.2 11.8 5.3 8.0Shui On Land* 272 HK 2.12 2.2 n.a. n.a. 1.7 25.0 3.4 21.3 9.4 16.6 5.2 16.2 6.5 12.6 9.1 17.6 10.6 13.8Sino-Ocean Land* 3377 HK 4.65 4.5 8.2 6.5 4.7 82.2 9.0 24.8 11.3 15.7 4.1 10.3 5.4 12.1 6.7 11.4 6.0 7.8Soho China* 410 HK 3.78 2.5 58.9 35.3 6.4 23.6 4.5 12.4 5.2 8.8 10.1 19.9 5.0 6.9 7.1 8.6 9.9 13.3Sunac China 1918 HK 4.88 2.1 3.7 3.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.5 5.8 1.4 3.5 1.4 5.5 3.1 4.9 2.2 5.1Yanlord Land*^ YLLG SP 1.04 1.5 10.3 7.2 4.1 28.7 6.6 19.8 9.3 14.5 5.0 10.5 6.7 15.0 9.3 14.4 7.5 9.8Yuexiu Property* 123 HK 1.39 2.2 8.4 7.2 1.9 31.9 2.9 25.5 8.9 15.7 4.5 11.0 4.5 9.1 5.8 9.5 5.9 7.9A v erage# 8 .1 6 .6 3 .4 35.7 5.7 22.3 8 .6 14.0 3 .6 10 .0 4 .2 9 .3 5 .4 9 .3 4 .2 7 .4

BJ Cap Land 'H' 2868 HK 3.64 1.0 3.9 3.1 1.6 18.8 3.1 15.9 5.1 9.6 1.9 5.9 2.0 4.7 3.3 5.3 2.6 3.3BJ North Star 'H' 588 HK 2.51 1.1 8.4 7.5 3.5 49.9 5.0 18.0 7.5 12.7 3.6 10.5 6.5 8.9 4.0 7.0 3.8 8.2C C Land* 1224 HK 2.11 0.7 4.8 23.2 18.7 536.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.2 17.4 3.9 12.7 6.7 10.9 3.5 6.4Central China* 832 HK 1.66 0.5 4.4 4.1 1.3 10.8 1.5 9.4 3.9 6.6 2.8 5.6 2.8 6.3 3.5 5.2 2.6 3.8China SCE 1966 HK 1.74 0.8 4.9 3.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.7 6.9 3.7 5.5 2.9 3.5 2.4 6.6 5.6 5.6CIF I Holdings 884 HK 1.62 1.4 3.7 3.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.8 5.9 3.2 4.3F irst Sponsor*^ F SG SP 1.19 0.5 12.9 11.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 29.9 31.3Glorious Property 845 HK 1.00 1.0 8.0 21.5 n.a. n.a. 12.9 17.7 6.4 10.8 2.8 7.3 2.8 6.3 4.8 11.0 4.4 9.1Hy doo Int'l 1396 HK 1.10 0.6 5.0 3.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.6 5.5 2.3 5.9Kaisa Group 1638 HK 1.56 1.0 2.2 1.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.5 8.4 3.7 10.0 2.9 6.9 2.8 5.9 1.9 3.9Lai F ung* 1125 HK 0.14 0.3 9.8 6.5 0.8 7.9 3.2 11.1 6.7 17.4 3.1 19.0 2.6 4.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0Minmetals Land 230 HK 0.80 0.3 4.4 3.1 0.8 3.4 2.2 13.2 6.9 20.1 3.8 n.a. 2.3 7.1 4.2 6.6 3.6 5.9Powerlong 1238 HK 1.63 0.8 4.6 3.8 n.a. n.a. 4.7 7.0 5.3 8.2 1.5 6.5 1.6 5.6 3.6 6.7 2.8 3.8Renhe Commercial 1387 HK 0.43 2.4 n.a. n.a. 10.5 12.5 5.7 10.7 5.4 7.2 3.2 7.0 2.7 9.4 4.7 23.9 7.7 7.7Road King 1098 HK 6.76 0.6 n.a. n.a. 1.1 11.0 4.4 7.2 5.4 7.3 2.2 7.0 2.4 7.6 6.5 7.3 6.8 6.8Greenland* 337 HK 3.66 1.2 16.6 5.4 0.1 2.8 1.1 11.9 3.6 6.7 1.2 3.2 1.0 7.6 0.6 44.8 11.7 28.2SRE Group 1207 HK 0.39 0.3 n.a. n.a. 1.0 8.8 1.5 4.6 2.0 3.7 2.3 2.9 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1Wuzhou Int'l 1369 HK 1.21 0.8 19.8 12.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.3 12.4Ying Li^ YINGLI SP 0.18 0.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 64.8 196.2 22.4 331.2 6.9 42.9 4.7 13.0 7.8 16.1 4.1 14.7Yuzhou Properties* 1628 HK 1.89 0.9 3.3 2.4 n.a. n.a. 9.6 11.7 5.5 9.9 2.7 5.8 3.6 6.5 3.6 6.5 2.4 3.3Zhong An 672 HK 0.88 0.3 n.a. n.a. 1.7 128.9 2.9 22.3 7.8 13.8 3.0 12.3 9.9 14.9 5.3 10.3 8.3 8.3A v erage** 6 .0 4 .5 4 .5 86.7 9.9 27.8 6 .5 32.6 3 .3 10 .5 3 .5 7 .7 4 .2 8 .3 4 .1 6 .4

A v erage (O v erall)@ 7 .4 6 .0 4 .6 56.7 8.2 24.8 8 .1 22.3 3 .8 10 .6 4 .2 8 .9 5 .2 9 .1 4 .3 6 .9 ^ Denominated in SGD for price

# Exclude Soho China & Shui On Land for 15F & 16F PE

** Exclude Greenland, First Sponsor & Lai Fung for 15F & 16F PE

@ Exclude Soho China, Shui On Land, Greenland, First Sponsor & Lai Fung for 15F & 16F PE

^^ FY15: 16F; FY16: FY17F


Industry Focus


PE valuations, 2007 to 2014 (based on reported earnings)

3- mt h dailyM k t t rad ing F Y 15 F Y 16

Pric e Cap v alue PE PE A v g Peak T rough Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak

Company Name Code HK $ US$bn US$m x x PE (x ) 2007 2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China Ov erseas* 688 HK 25.9 33.0 81.0 8.3 7.8 10.4 34.3 10.2 26.0 21.2 12.0 9.7 10.4 9.0 7.1Country Garden* 2007 HK 3.04 8.9 7.3 5.7 5.3 14.6 41.7 11.3 86.8 25.3 10.6 9.0 8.2 9.5 7.1CR Land* 1109 HK 21.5 19.2 40.3 11.8 10.2 12.2 52.0 13.1 35.6 21.6 14.5 10.2 11.5 9.3 7.8China V anke 'H'* 2202 HK 18.24 26.0 22.0 9.7 8.3 8.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.9 10.3Dalian Wanda 'H' 3699 HK 51.3 30.0 22.1 10.5 8.5 10.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.1Evergrande* 3333 HK 5.2 9.7 42.4 10.0 7.3 6.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 52.1 7.0 6.6 6.3 4.5 3.8Longfor 960 HK 10.28 7.7 3.9 6.8 6.1 6.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 14.8 11.7 9.2 10.2 8.7 6.2Shimao Property* 813 HK 13.68 6.1 14.2 5.2 4.9 9.4 18.7 11.4 63.7 14.2 9.6 6.7 7.4 7.6 6.7A v erage 8 .5 7 .3 9.8 36 .7 11 .5 53 .0 24 .9 10 .9 8 .6 9 .0 8 .4 6 .9

Agile Property* 3383 HK 4.38 2.2 5.1 4.1 4.6 6.2 28.8 1.2 7.9 20.9 6.1 9.6 5.9 7.2 5.6China South City *^^ 1668 HK 2.05 2.1 4.9 7.6 6.5 5.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.8 4.3 7.0 9.7COGO* 81 HK 2.53 0.7 0.8 3.5 2.4 7.5 12.4 32.9 188.9 n.a. 4.9 8.0 8.9 9.2 13.3China J inmao Hldgs* 817 HK 2.26 3.1 3.5 7.8 6.3 8.9 7.4 8.4 33.1 24.9 17.0 9.6 9.5 6.8 5.1Greentown 3900 HK 6.63 1.8 4.1 4.1 3.8 14.3 25.5 4.2 30.5 18.9 10.7 5.2 4.3 6.2 12.4Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 7.8 3.2 7.0 3.8 3.4 7.4 26.4 3.3 28.6 20.6 10.2 8.3 6.0 5.2 5.9Hopson Dev 754 HK 6.54 1.9 0.9 11.7 10.9 5.9 12.3 1.1 16.2 4.1 3.9 11.7 7.3 8.2 7.1KWG Property 1813 HK 5.81 2.2 5.5 4.6 3.9 8.0 9.3 6.2 n.a. 19.5 11.8 6.9 4.9 4.9 4.5Poly (Hong Kong) 119 HK 2.51 1.2 6.2 26.4 18.6 11.8 44.2 11.4 59.7 40.1 18.6 10.8 8.3 9.1 16.4Shenzhen Inv 604 HK 3.24 3.1 6.9 8.6 7.6 7.2 13.6 2.2 20.5 13.7 8.9 6.7 5.5 6.6 5.4Shui On Land* 272 HK 2.12 2.2 3.7 n.a. n.a. 7.3 15.1 1.6 11.7 7.8 6.3 4.7 9.1 10.4 9.1Sino-Ocean Land* 3377 HK 4.65 4.5 4.6 8.2 6.5 10.0 24.0 4.5 25.5 22.5 16.2 12.8 8.5 8.3 7.1Soho China* 410 HK 3.78 2.5 5.2 58.9 35.3 10.8 20.5 n.a. n.a. 6.7 7.9 8.0 2.4 3.8 7.1Sunac China 1918 HK 4.88 2.1 12.6 3.7 3.0 3.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.2 5.4 6.0 6.7Yanlord Land*^ YLLG SP 1.04 1.5 1.3 10.3 7.2 10.6 33.4 4.1 27.4 17.6 11.0 11.6 8.0 10.4 8.7Yuexiu Property * 123 HK 1.39 2.2 4.3 8.4 7.2 7.1 15.9 3.4 20.2 n.a. 12.0 2.5 5.7 6.8 6.3A v erage# 8 .1 6 .6 8.2 20 .6 6 .5 39 .2 18 .1 10 .4 7 .8 6 .5 7 .3 8 .1

BJ Cap Land 'H' 2868 HK 3.64 1.0 2.3 3.9 3.1 7.4 23.6 2.3 21.7 13.2 6.3 5.4 4.7 4.0 3.2BJ North Star 'H' 588 HK 2.51 1.1 1.2 8.4 7.5 7.9 46.9 1.6 12.7 6.1 6.9 5.2 5.7 7.7 9.5C C Land* 1224 HK 2.11 0.7 0.5 4.8 23.2 10.0 36.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 36.8 27.0 13.7 16.1 4.7Central China* 832 HK 1.66 0.5 0.3 4.4 4.1 4.7 n.a. 1.1 6.7 11.0 7.4 6.6 6.3 6.1 5.8China SCE 1966 HK 1.74 0.8 0.5 4.9 3.9 5.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.9 6.1 6.3 5.8 5.8CIF I Holdings 884 HK 1.62 1.4 2.1 3.7 3.1 3.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.6 4.6 4.6F irst Sponsor*^ F SG SP 1.185 0.5 0.1 12.9 11.4 14.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 33.3Glorious Property 845 HK 1 1.0 0.3 8.0 21.5 8.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.8 6.3 8.5 10.1 39.2 (3.7)Hy doo Int'l 1396 HK 1.1 0.6 0.2 5.0 3.9 10.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 27.5Kaisa Group 1638 HK 1.56 1.0 0.0 2.2 1.8 3.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 20.2 3.2 7.0 4.8 3.9 5.1Lai F ung* 1125 HK 0.138 0.3 0.1 9.8 6.5 5.8 n.a. 2.1 15.2 5.9 7.8 5.4 2.5 5.7 2.9Minmetals Land 230 HK 0.8 0.3 0.1 4.4 3.1 8.2 19.8 2.2 16.4 38.4 12.1 9.5 15.6 11.8 8.5Powerlong 1238 HK 1.63 0.8 0.5 4.6 3.8 2.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.0 3.7 3.2 3.1 5.4 3.9Renhe Commercial 1387 HK 0.43 2.4 2.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.8 9.3 9.1 9.4 5.7 17.4 (8.4) (5.3)Road King 1098 HK 6.76 0.6 0.3 n.a. n.a. 7.2 14.7 2.1 15.9 6.8 8.8 6.7 6.1 6.0 5.4Greenland* 337 HK 3.66 1.2 4.3 16.6 5.4 13.2 13.1 2.4 39.3 7.2 4.9 4.2 (1.8) 364.4 108.1SRE Group 1207 HK 0.39 0.3 1.2 n.a. n.a. 7.0 7.9 3.2 20.7 4.7 4.8 6.7 6.8 13.3 (13.9)Wuzhou Int'l 1369 HK 1.21 0.8 1.8 19.8 12.3 18.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.2 32.2Ying Li^ YINGLI SP 0.183 0.3 0.6 n.a. n.a. 26.7 n.a. 1.8 4.8 112.2 33.8 17.6 11.5 26.6 17.8Yuzhou Properties* 1628 HK 1.89 0.9 1.1 3.3 2.4 4.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.2 4.7 4.6 7.1 4.1 4.5Zhong An 672 HK 0.88 0.3 0.1 n.a. n.a. 9.3 21.8 4.2 29.4 15.4 12.4 10.4 7.2 9.1 16.1A v erage** 6 .0 4 .5 8.9 23 .0 2 .8 17 .5 17 .7 10 .3 8 .2 7 .2 27 .9 13 .1

A v erage (O v erall)@ 7 .4 6 .0 9.0 23 .8 5 .8 32 .4 19 .1 10 .4 8 .1 7 .2 16 .8 10 .3HSI Index HSI 19 .2 9 .1 23 .1 18 .2 13 .6 11 .7 11 .0 11 .3 12 .0

PE (x )16 - O c t

^ Denominated in SGD for price

# Exclude Soho China & Shui On Land for 15F & 16F PE

** Exclude Greenland, First Sponsor & Lai Fung for 15F & 16F PE

@ Exclude Soho China, Shui On Land, Greenland, First Sponsor & Lai Fung for 15F & 16F PE

^^ FY15: 16F; FY16: FY17F


Industry Focus


Share price performance

Price Performance 20071-wk 2-wk 1-mth 2-mth 3-mth 4-mth 5-mth 6-mth YTD 1-y r 2011 2012 2013 2014 high

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %Tier 1 play ersChina Overseas 688 HK 3.8 3.6 10.7 10.2 (2.3) (7.8) (12.4) (11.1) 12.4 23.3 (9.7) 78.0 (5.6) 5.7 34.1Country Garden 2007 HK 3.1 6.7 11.4 3.4 (4.4) (10.1) (24.4) (20.4) (1.9) 4.8 (2.3) 46.4 15.3 (32.8) (76.5)CR Land 1109 HK 3.4 8.9 14.4 5.4 (6.7) (11.5) (14.0) (11.7) 8.7 26.3 (12.1) 69.1 (8.9) 6.4 3.9China Vanke 'H' 2202 HK 5.7 6.9 9.2 (2.8) (4.0) (5.2) (7.9) (4.9) 5.4 31.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.Dalian Wanda 3699 HK 3.3 11.5 8.8 (7.7) (13.1) (23.8) (26.3) (6.6) 3.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.Evergrande 3333 HK 8.3 8.6 9.5 1.4 10.4 22.4 (24.6) 8.3 65.6 75.1 (14.8) 32.0 (30.4) 6.1 n.a.Longfor Properties 960 HK 1.8 7.0 6.2 (2.7) (10.1) (15.3) (22.7) (15.2) 2.9 14.3 (18.9) 72.9 (28.6) (7.8) n.a.Shimao Property 813 HK 1.5 10.7 19.8 6.7 (4.7) (14.1) (22.0) (21.6) (21.1) (13.3) (43.5) 120.5 21.9 (2.7) (52.9)A v erage 3.9 8.0 11.2 1.8 (4.4) (8.2) (19.3) (10.4) 9.4 23.1 (16.9) 69.8 (6.1) (4.2) (22.9)

T ier 2 play ersAgile Property 3383 HK 1.2 4.5 13.2 1.2 (9.5) (19.3) (32.5) (24.9) (0.7) 10.7 (39.2) 56.6 (23.8) (46.9) (77.8)China South City 1668 HK (1.4) 1.5 4.6 (14.9) (12.8) (21.5) (35.1) (41.6) (42.1) (43.4) (32.0) 17.0 88.0 60.9 n.a.COGO 81 HK 0.4 1.6 2.4 (18.6) (26.0) (37.1) (47.0) (44.6) (35.8) (40.0) 88.6 105.6 (20.7) (46.7) (44.3)China J inmao Hldgs 817 HK 6.1 10.2 18.9 (4.6) (10.3) (21.3) (26.9) (23.9) 1.8 24.9 (35.9) 85.9 (3.2) (17.4) (63.8)Greentown 3900 HK 1.8 10.7 11.8 (14.5) (22.5) (34.1) (36.9) (24.8) (13.9) (11.4) (60.8) 321.4 (16.6) (35.0) (66.1)GZ R&F 2777 HK 2.1 6.0 8.0 2.6 (10.3) (15.1) (20.0) (16.8) (17.8) (2.7) (44.8) 110.1 (12.1) (16.3) (82.0)Hopson Dev 754 HK 2.3 4.5 1.1 (3.1) (10.4) (16.8) (25.2) (20.0) (7.9) (2.4) (51.8) 207.2 (24.6) (24.0) (79.1)KWG 1813 HK 0.9 4.5 16.7 11.7 (6.3) (11.0) (21.2) (10.5) 14.3 14.5 (55.7) 122.1 (26.1) 33.4 (57.3)Poly HK 119 HK 5.9 8.2 16.2 (10.4) (21.8) (36.0) (45.4) (46.1) (21.3) (19.0) (55.7) 79.8 (31.7) (22.9) (78.1)Shenzhen Inv 604 HK 4.5 8.0 13.7 2.2 (1.2) (18.2) (21.0) (12.4) 45.3 50.0 (48.7) 125.9 (7.0) (23.6) (58.2)Shui On Land 272 HK 8.2 15.2 21.8 11.6 1.9 (4.9) (18.5) (6.6) 15.8 18.4 (36.9) 58.9 (31.1) (23.1) (78.5)Sino-Ocean 3377 HK (4.9) 1.1 9.9 (2.3) (15.3) (14.7) (21.2) (20.1) 5.4 13.1 (29.3) 60.8 (12.1) (13.4) (69.0)SOHO China 410 HK 6.2 18.9 25.2 (17.8) (21.4) (25.7) (31.9) (34.0) (31.0) (33.3) (10.6) 20.3 7.4 (18.0) (68.3)Sunac China 1918 HK 0.4 6.8 15.1 (24.1) (34.7) (44.1) (51.2) (44.9) (38.1) (22.3) (42.1) 272.7 (22.5) 69.7 n.a.Yanlord Land YLLG SP 1.4 1.4 0.0 5.0 5.0 (6.3) (13.6) (0.5) 1.0 0.0 (43.2) 59.2 (19.4) (15.1) (75.1)Yuexiu Property 123 HK 0.0 4.5 11.2 (4.1) (9.2) (18.7) (24.9) (23.6) (6.7) 0.7 (46.2) 118.8 (22.0) (16.8) (51.8)A v erage 2.2 6.7 11.9 (5.0) (12.8) (21.5) (29.5) (24.7) (8.2) (2.6) (34.0) 113.9 (11.1) (9.7) (67.8)

T ier 3 play ersBJ Cap. Land 2868 HK 4.3 12.0 15.2 (2.7) (21.0) (42.8) (44.8) (31.6) 23.8 32.4 (41.2) 110.5 (18.0) 11.4 (51.2)BJ North Star 588 HK 6.4 7.7 14.6 (2.3) (8.7) (33.4) (25.7) (1.6) 1.6 5.9 (45.5) 82.6 (16.7) 41.1 (68.2)C C Land 1224 HK 3.9 10.5 8.8 4.5 16.6 8.2 3.9 24.9 56.3 50.7 (45.0) 88.9 (28.3) (30.8) (87.4)Central China 832 HK 12.9 10.7 16.1 (4.0) (11.2) (27.8) (34.9) (22.8) (5.1) (8.3) (31.2) 76.8 (12.8) (26.8) n.a.China SCE Property 1966 HK (0.6) 0.6 1.8 0.6 (6.5) 3.0 (0.6) 15.2 7.4 14.5 (27.7) 20.2 16.2 (12.4) n.a.CIF I Holdings 884 HK 12.5 15.7 15.7 4.5 (8.5) (19.4) (35.2) (24.7) 5.2 11.7 n.a. n.a. 17.1 (6.1) n.a.F irst Sponsor FSG SP (1.3) (1.3) (4.8) (6.7) (7.8) (7.4) (6.7) (4.4) (5.2) (0.8) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.Glorious Property 845 HK 8.7 12.4 13.6 0.0 (9.1) (2.0) (17.4) (6.5) (16.7) (16.0) (49.1) 7.4 14.4 (28.1) n.a.Hydoo Int'l 1396 HK 8.9 11.1 17.0 17.0 (1.8) (24.1) (34.1) (33.7) (43.0) (33.3) n.a. n.a. n.a. (13.5) n.a.Kaisa Group 1638 HK 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (1.9) (44.9) (42.0) 79.1 4.2 (36.4) n.a.Lai Fung 1125 HK 13.1 15.0 6.2 (12.1) (18.8) (26.2) (29.6) (22.0) (12.1) (17.4) (47.3) 25.5 (5.3) (19.9) (70.4)Minmetals Land 230 HK 1.3 2.6 3.9 (4.8) (11.1) (25.9) (31.0) (29.2) (10.1) (8.0) (53.4) 70.7 (19.5) (13.6) (78.4)Powerlong 1238 HK 4.5 10.1 7.2 11.6 7.2 (14.7) (13.3) (1.2) 49.5 63.0 (59.1) 58.7 0.6 (34.3) n.a.Renhe Commercial 1387 HK 7.5 3.6 (1.1) (27.1) (31.7) (44.2) 2.4 (3.4) 26.5 45.3 (34.6) (8.9) (38.9) (28.1) n.a.Road King 1098 HK (1.0) 0.1 0.0 (4.1) (5.1) (10.7) (16.1) (12.1) 3.2 (0.6) (36.9) 52.1 9.6 (11.7) (60.5)Greenland 337 HK (3.7) (6.2) 1.1 (10.1) (29.5) (43.6) (53.8) (40.9) 18.8 23.2 (66.1) 53.5 90.4 (18.3) (51.0)SRE Group 1207 HK 0.0 0.0 11.4 11.4 (21.2) (42.6) (47.3) 66.0 85.7 77.3 (55.7) 24.2 (32.9) (20.8) (88.5)Wuzhou Int'l 1369 HK (0.8) 4.3 (1.6) (4.7) (14.2) (13.6) (29.7) (6.9) (17.7) (35.6) n.a. n.a. n.a. 14.0 n.a.Ying Li YINGLI SP 0.0 6.4 31.7 1.7 (12.9) (22.1) (26.8) (26.8) (25.3) (25.3) (41.4) 45.1 6.8 (38.0) (84.8)Yuzhou Properties 1628 HK (1.0) 3.3 6.8 9.9 8.0 (7.4) (19.9) (6.4) (3.1) 11.2 (18.6) 37.1 2.9 1.0 n.a.Zhong An 672 HK (1.1) 0.0 7.3 7.3 6.0 (17.0) (18.5) (9.3) (22.8) (5.4) (43.9) 7.5 26.3 (20.8) (84.8)A v erage 3.5 5.7 8.1 (0.5) (8.6) (19.7) (22.8) (8.5) 5.5 6.6 (43.4) 48.9 0.9 (14.6) (72.5)

A v erage (Ov erall) 3.1 6.4 10.0 (1.7) (9.4) (18.3) (24.6) (14.6) 1.3 5.9 (35.5) 78.8 (4.9) (11.2) (63.1)

Source: Thomson Reuters

Industry Focus


Discount to NAV

Sector average (DBSV coverage only) Agile Property (3383 HK)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

Oct

-06

Jan

-08

May

-09

Au

g-1

0

Dec

-11

Mar

-13

Jul-

14

Oct

-15

%

M

+2SD: -7.4%

+1SD: -23.5%

Mean: -39.6%

-1SD: -55.6%

-2SD: -71.7%

(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

Jul-

08

Jul-

09

Jul-

10

Au

g-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Sep

-13

Sep

-14

Oct

-15

%

+1SD -29.6%

Avg: -51.3%

-1SD -73.1%

C C Land (1224 HK) Central China (832 HK)

(100)(90)(80)(70)(60)(50)(40)(30)(20)(10)

0

Jul-

08

Jul-

09

Jul-

10

Au

g-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Sep

-13

Sep

-14

Oct

-15

%

+1SD -48.8%

-1SD -78.6%

Avg: -63.7%

(100)

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

Jan

-09

May

-10

Sep

-11

Jan

-13

Jun

-14

Oct

-15

%

Avg: -66.1%

+1SD -59.4%

-1SD -72.9%

China Overseas (688 HK) COGO (81 HK)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

Jan

-05

Feb

-07

Ap

r-0

9

Jun

-11

Au

g-1

3

Oct

-15

%

+1SD 6.8%

Avg: -10.7%

-1SD -28.2%

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Feb

-12

Au

g-1

2

Feb

-13

Sep

-13

Mar

-14

Sep

-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

%

+1SD -31.3%

Avg: -50.3%

-1SD -69.2%


Industry Focus


Discount to NAV (continued)

CR Land (1109 HK) China Vanke (2202 HK)

(80)(70)(60)(50)(40)(30)(20)(10)

0 10 20 30

Jan

-05

May

-06

Sep

-07

Jan

-09

May

-10

Sep

-11

Jan

-13

Jun

-14

Oct

-15

%

+1SD -14.6%

Avg: -29.4%

-1SD -44.2%

(30)

(28)

(26)

(24)

(22)

(20)

(18)

(16)

(14)

(12)

(10)

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

%

+1SD -17.1%

Avg: -20.8%

-1SD -24.4%

Country Garden (2007 HK) Evergrande (3333 HK)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

Jan

-09

May

-10

Sep

-11

Jan

-13

Jun

-14

Oct

-15

%

+1SD -19.4%

Avg: -34.6%

-1SD -49.7%

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

No

v-0

9

Jan

-11

Mar

-12

May

-13

Jul-

14

Oct

-15

%

+1SD -45.5%

Avg: -56.7%

-1SD -67.9%

China Jinmao Holdings (817 HK) Greenland (337 HK)

(80)

(75)

(70)

(65)

(60)

(55)

(50)

(45)

(40)

(35)

(30)

No

v-0

9

Jan

-11

Ap

r-1

2

Jun

-13

Au

g-1

4

Oct

-15

%

+1SD -43.8%

Avg: -52.4%

-1SD -61.1%

(100)(80)

(60)(40)

(20)0

20 40

60 80

100

No

v-0

8

Jan

-10

Mar

-11

May

-12

Jun

-13

Au

g-1

4

Oct

-15

%

+1SD -9.3%

Avg: -40.8%

-1SD -72.3%


Industry Focus


Discount to NAV (continued)

Shimao Property (813 HK) Shui On Land (272 HK)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

Mar

-07

Feb

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Dec

-10

Dec

-11

No

v-1

2

No

v-1

3

Oct

-14

Oct

-15

%

+1SD -22.2%

Avg: -39.1%

-1SD -56.1%

(100)(90)(80)(70)(60)(50)(40)(30)(20)(10)

0

Oct

-06

Jul-

08

May

-10

Feb

-12

Dec

-13

Oct

-15

%

+1SD -45.9%

Avg: -56.3%

-1SD -66.7%

Sino-Ocean Land (3377 HK) SOHO China (410 HK)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

Oct

-07

Feb

-09

Jun

-10

Oct

-11

Feb

-13

Jun

-14

Oct

-15

%

+1SD -17.6%

Avg: -38.8%

-1SD -60%

(80)(60)(40)(20)

0 20 40 60 80

100 120

Oct

-07

May

-09

Dec

-10

Jul-

12

Mar

-14

Oct

-15

%

+1SD -14.6%

Avg: -35.4%

-1SD -56.2%

Yanlord Land (YLLG SP) Yuexiu Property (123 HK)

(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

Oct

-07

Feb

-09

Jun

-10

Oct

-11

Feb

-13

Jun

-14

Oct

-15

%

+1SD -25%

Avg: -42.4%

-1SD -59.8%

(75)

(70)

(65)

(60)

(55)

(50)

(45)

(40)

(35)

Feb

-13

Jul-

13

No

v-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Jan

-15

May

-15

Oct

-15

%

+1SD -52.3%

Avg: -59%

-1SD -65.7%


Industry Focus


PE charts

Sector average Agile Property (3383 HK)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan

-05

Oct

-06

Au

g-0

8

May

-10

Mar

-12

Dec

-13

Oct

-15

x

+2SD: 20.3x

+1SD: 14.6x

Mean: 8.9x

-1SD: 3.2x

-2SD: -2.5x

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Dec

-05

Mar

-07

May

-08

Au

g-0

9

No

v-1

0

Feb

-12

May

-13

Jul-

14

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 6.2x

+1SD: 8.2x

-1SD: 4.2x


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan

-05

Dec

-05

Dec

-06

Dec

-07

Dec

-08

No

v-0

9

No

v-1

0

No

v-1

1

No

v-1

2

Oct

-13

Oct

-14

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 10x

+1SD: 18.4x

-1SD: 1.6x

0123456789

10

Jun

-08

Au

g-0

9

No

v-1

0

Feb

-12

May

-13

Jul-

14

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 4.9x

+1SD: 6.1x

-1SD: 3.7x


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan

-05

Dec

-05

Dec

-06

Dec

-07

Dec

-08

No

v-0

9

No

v-1

0

No

v-1

1

No

v-1

2

Oct

-13

Oct

-14

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 10.4x

+1SD: 15.5x

-1SD: 5.3x

-10-505

10152025303540

Jan

-99

Oct

-01

Au

g-0

4

May

-07

Mar

-10

Dec

-12

Oct

-15

x 190x (Dec-07)

Avg: 7.7x

+1SD: 19x

-1SD: -3.7x


Industry Focus


PE charts (continued)


05

101520253035404550

Jan

-05

Feb

-07

Ap

r-0

9

Jun

-11

Au

g-1

3

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 12.1x

+1SD: 19x

-1SD: 5.3x

6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5

10.0 10.5 11.0

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 8.7x

+1SD: 9.5x

-1SD: 7.9x


-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ap

r-0

7

Jul-

08

Sep

-09

Dec

-10

Feb

-12

May

-13

Jul-

14

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 14.9x

+1SD: 34x

-1SD: -4.2x

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

No

v-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Oct

-10

Mar

-11

Sep

-11

Feb

-12

Au

g-1

2

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Dec

-13

Jun

-14

No

v-1

4

May

-15

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 4.7x

-1SD: 3.1x

+1SD: 6.4x


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Au

g-0

7

Dec

-08

May

-10

Sep

-11

Jan

-13

Jun

-14

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 8.8x

+1SD: 13.8x

-1SD: 3.8x

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Oct

-06

Jul-

08

May

-10

Mar

-12

Dec

-13

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 13x

+1SD: 26.7x

-1SD: -0.7x


Industry Focus


PE charts (continued)


-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jul-

06

May

-08

Mar

-10

Jan

-12

Dec

-13

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 9.3x

+1SD: 18.9x

-1SD: -0.4x

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Oct

-06

Jan

-08

May

-09

Au

g-1

0

Dec

-11

Mar

-13

Jun

-14

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 7.3x

+1SD: 9.8x

-1SD: 4.7x


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Sep

-07

May

-09

Dec

-10

Jul-

12

Mar

-14

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 10x

+1SD: 15.2x

-1SD: 4.7x

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Oct

-07

May

-09

Dec

-10

Jul-

12

Mar

-14

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 14.7x

+1SD: 35.7x

-1SD: -6.3x

Yanlord (YLLG SP) Yuexiu Property (123 HK)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jun

-06

Jan

-08

Jul-

09

Feb

-11

Sep

-12

Mar

-14

Oct

-15

x

+1SD: 15.6x

Avg: 10.5x

-1SD: 5.4x

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan

-03

Jun

-04

No

v-0

5

Ap

r-0

7

Sep

-08

Feb

-10

Jul-

11

Dec

-12

May

-14

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 7.2x

+1SD: 12x

-1SD: 2.4x


Industry Focus


PB charts

Sector average Agile Property (3383 HK)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan

-05

Oct

-06

Au

g-0

8

May

-10

Mar

-12

Dec

-13

Oct

-15

x

Mean 1.0x

+1SD 1.5x

-1SD 0.5x

+2SD 2.0x

-2SD -0.01x

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Dec

-05

Mar

-07

May

-08

Au

g-0

9

No

v-1

0

Feb

-12

May

-13

Jul-

14

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 1.3x

+1SD: 2.2x

-1SD: 0.5x


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Jan

-05

Dec

-05

Dec

-06

Dec

-07

Dec

-08

No

v-0

9

No

v-1

0

No

v-1

1

No

v-1

2

Oct

-13

Oct

-14

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 0.7x

+1SD: 1.3x

-1SD: 0.1x

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Jun

-08

Au

g-0

9

No

v-1

0

Feb

-12

May

-13

Jul-

14

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 0.7x

+1SD: 0.9x

-1SD: 0.5x


0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0

Jan

-05

Dec

-05

Dec

-06

Dec

-07

Dec

-08

No

v-0

9

No

v-1

0

No

v-1

1

No

v-1

2

Oct

-13

Oct

-14

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 1.9x

+1SD: 2.7x

-1SD: 1.1x

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan

-99

Oct

-01

Au

g-0

4

May

-07

Mar

-10

Dec

-12

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 0.8x

+1SD: 1.3x

-1SD: 0.2x


Industry Focus


PB charts (continued)


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan

-05

Feb

-07

Ap

r-0

9

Jun

-11

Au

g-1

3

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 1.3x

+1SD: 1.7x

-1SD: 0.8x

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 1.5x

+1SD: 1.6x

-1SD: 1.4x


0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Ap

r-0

7

Jul-

08

Sep

-09

Dec

-10

Feb

-12

May

-13

Jul-

14

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 1.9x

+1SD: 3.6x

-1SD: 0.2x

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

No

v-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Oct

-10

Mar

-11

Sep

-11

Feb

-12

Au

g-1

2

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Dec

-13

Jun

-14

No

v-1

4

May

-15

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 1x

-1SD: 0.4x

+1SD: 1.5x


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Au

g-0

7

Dec

-08

May

-10

Sep

-11

Jan

-13

Jun

-14

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 0.9x

+1SD: 1.4x

-1SD: 0.5x

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Oct

-06

Jul-

08

May

-10

Mar

-12

Dec

-13

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 0.9x

+1SD: 1.5x

-1SD: 0.4x


Industry Focus


PB charts (continued)


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Jul-

06

May

-08

Mar

-10

Jan

-12

Dec

-13

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 1.2x

+1SD: 1.9x

-1SD: 0.6x

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Oct

-06

Jan

-08

May

-09

Au

g-1

0

Dec

-11

Mar

-13

Jun

-14

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 0.7x

+1SD: 1.1x

-1SD: 0.3x


0.2

0.7

1.2

1.7

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

Sep

-07

May

-09

Dec

-10

Jul-

12

Mar

-14

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 0.8x

+1SD: 1.2x

-1SD: 0.4x0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Oct

-07

May

-09

Dec

-10

Jul-

12

Mar

-14

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 0.9x

+1SD: 1.3x

-1SD: 0.5x

Yanlord (YLLG SP) Yuexiu Property (123 HK)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Jun

-06

Jan

-08

Jul-

09

Feb

-11

Sep

-12

Mar

-14

Oct

-15

x

+1SD: 2x

Avg: 1.2x

-1SD: 0.3x

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Jan

-03

Jun

-04

No

v-0

5

Ap

r-0

7

Sep

-08

Feb

-10

Jul-

11

Dec

-12

May

-14

Oct

-15

x

Avg: 0.6x

+1SD: 0.8x

-1SD: 0.4x


Industry Focus


DBSV recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:

STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)

BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)

HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)

FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)

SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)

Share price appreciation + dividends GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited (“DBSVHK”), a direct wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Vickers Securities Holdings Pte Ltd ("DBSVH"). This report is intended for clients of DBSV Group only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBSVHK. The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBSVHK and/or DBSVH) do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate independent legal or financial advice. DBSVHK accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss (including any claims for loss of profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. DBSVH is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Bank Ltd. DBS Bank Ltd along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. DBSVHK, DBS Bank Ltd and their associates, their directors, and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies. Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIED UPON as a representation and/or warranty by DBSVHK and/or DBSVH (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that:

a. such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and

b. there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments stated therein.

Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies) mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating to the commodity referred to in this report. DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ("DBSVUSA"), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of the date the report is published, the analyst and his / her spouse and/or relatives and/or associate who are financially dependent on the analyst, do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities, directorships and trustee positions).

Industry Focus


COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES 1. DBSVHK and its subsidiaries do not have a proprietary position in the securities recommended in this report as of the date the report is

published. 2. DBSVHK, DBSVUSA, DBS Bank Ltd and/or other affiliates may beneficially own a total of 1% or more of any class of common equity

securities of the subject companies mentioned in this document as of the latest available date of the updated information. 3. Compensation for investment banking services:

DBSVHK, DBSVUSA, DBS Bank Ltd and/or other affiliates have received compensation, within the past 12 months, and within the next 3 months may receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Central China Real Estate Limited (832 HK), China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (688 HK), China Jinmao Holdings (817 HK) and Yuexiu Property Company Limited (123 HK) mentioned in this document.

DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively.

RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION General This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or

located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Australia This document is being distributed in Australia by DBSVHK, which is exempted from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under the Corporation Act 2001 [“CA”] in respect of financial services provided to the recipients. DBSVHK is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission under the laws of Hong KONG, which differ from Australian laws. Distribution of this report is intended only for “wholesale investors” within the meaning of the CA.

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Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director, ADBSR

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This research report is being distributed in The Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”) by DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) having its office at PO Box 506538, 3rd Floor, Building 3, East Wing, Gate Precinct, Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), Dubai, United Arab Emirates. DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) is regulated by The Dubai Financial Services Authority. This research report is intended only for professional clients (as defined in the DFSA rulebook) and no other person may act upon it.

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China / Hong Kong Industry Focus China Property Sector · grew 19% from last year. Yanlord, CIFI,...

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Transcript of China / Hong Kong Industry Focus China Property Sector · grew 19% from last year. Yanlord, CIFI,...