China and Iceland Economic Cooperation
40
China and Iceland Economic Cooperation Li YANG, Trade Representative Embassy of Iceland in Beijing
Transcript of China and Iceland Economic Cooperation
China and IcelandEconomic Cooperation
Li YANG, Trade Representative
Embassy of Iceland in Beijing
Iceland-China Trade & EconomicCooperation After FTA： April 2015
• China 2015
• Understanding China
• China-Iceland Economic Cooperation
2015
• Iceland-China Economic Cooperation:
Beyond Bilateral Nature
China 2014: Biggest Economy in the World?
China Economy: A New Norm of Quality over Quantity
7,7 7,7 7,6 7,5 7,4
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2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f
China Developing Countries East Asia & Pacific Euro area (17) Japan US
Major Developments in China
• Upgrading in the global value chain
• World workshop
• A growing market
• Ongoing structural change
• Domestic consumption
• balanced development
• Encouragement of Entrepreneurship and Innovation
• Foreign trade: $ 3,958.64 billion，-8%
- Import : $ 1,682.07 billion, -14.1%
- Export: $ 2,276.57 billion, -2.8%
- Service export: $ 288 billion, 9.2%- Complete plant: 10%，
(train/ship/aircraft)
• FDI inflow: $ 126 billion, 7.9% (est.)
• FDI outflow: $ 118 billion, 14.7%
- Telecom, Software and IT: 240%
- Manufacturing: 105.9%
• Foreign reserve: $3,330 bil, -$512 bil.
- USD/RMB: 6.2284, -1.4% -6,00%
-4,00%
-2,00%
0,00%
2,00%
4,00%
6,00%
8,00%
10,00%
Economic Growth
2015
Belt & Road Initiative: March 2015
• USD 40
billion
• Est. 29 Dec
2014
• Beijing
New Development Bank
• $ 100 billion (equal
contribution by
BRICKs)
• Est. 21 July 2015
• Shanghai
• $ 100 billion
• Est. 16 Jan 2016
• Beijing
Iceland-China Trade & EconomicCooperation After FTA
• China 2015
• Understanding China
• China-Iceland Economic Cooperation
2015
• Iceland-China Economic Cooperation:
Beyond Bilateral Nature
• Economic engagement with China beyond trade is viewed with caution, scepticism, and fear. This attitude stems from both China-specific and Iceland-specific factors, including a low level of knowledge of Chinese culture, a suspicion of Chinese motives, and a lack of trust in the Icelandic political establishment.
• There is a strong opposition to Chinese foreign direct investment into sensitive Icelandic sectors, especially land, fisheries, and energy. Chinese investment in these sectors is seen as a threat to national sovereignty and the beginning of a slippery slope where all of Iceland is controlled by China.
Stakeholder or Challenger or Advocate
• Responsible Stakeholder
• Aggressive Challenger
• Advocate of New Game
of Rule
Justin Lin vs Gordon Zhang ….
China Miracle, 1994 China Collapse, 2001 Hard landing: Gorge Soros (21 Jan 2016)
Negative China sovereign credit: S & P (2 Mar 2016) &
Moody (31 Mar 2016)
Global Value/Production Chain
Tertiary/service
Secondary/manufacturing
Primary/natural resources
Global Value/Production Chain & Geo-economies
Tertiary/service
Secondary/manufacturing
Primary/natural resources
Developed
countries
Developing
countries
Global Value/Production Chain: Where is China?
Tertiary/service
Secondary/manufacturing
Primary/natural resources
Global Value/Production Chain: Where is China?
Tertiary/service
Secondary/manufacturing
Primary/natural resources
“One Country, Three Worlds”
Rural areas
2nd-tier cities
and some east
coastal areas
1st-tier cities
and some
east coastal
areas
The World is Flat: 2005
• “The rule of the market economy is that if somethere has the richest human resources and the cheapest labor, of course, the enterprises and businesses will naturally go there….
• It is like building a building. Today, the US you are the designers, the architects, and the developing countries are the bricklayers for the building. But one day, I hope we will become architects.”
-- Dr. Deren Xia, Mayor of Dalian
Global Value/Production Chain: Where is China?
Tertiary/service
Secondary/manufacturing
Primary/natural resources
“One Country, Three Worlds”
Rural areas
2nd-tier cities
and some east
coastal areas
1st-tier cities
and some
east coastal
areas
• Foreign trade: $ 3,958.64 billion，-8%
- Import : $ 1,682.07 billion, -14/1%
- Export: $ 2,276.57 billion, -2.8%
- Service export: $ 288.19 billion, +9.2%- Complete plant: 10% (train, ship, aircraft)
• FDI Inflow: $ 126 billion, +.7.9% (est.)
• FDI Outflow: $ 118 billion, +1.47%
- Telecom, Software and IT: 240%
- Manufacturing: 105.9%
• Foreign reserve: $3,330.4 bil, -$512.7 bil.
- USD/RMB: 6.2284, -1.4% -6
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Economic Growth 2015
China FTAs
Belt & Road Initiative: March 2015
• USD 40
billion
• Est. 29 Dec
2014
• Beijing
New Development Bank
• $ 100 billion (equal
contribution by
BRICKs)
• Est. 21 July 2015
• Shanghai
• $ 100 billion
• Est. 16 Jan 2016
• Beijing
Iceland-China Trade & EconomicCooperation After FTA
• China 2015
• Understanding China
• China-Iceland Economic Cooperation
2015
• Iceland-China Economic Cooperation:
Beyond Bilateral Nature
Iceland-China Economic Cooperation: Why FTA?
• Platform for further development in:
• Trade
• Tourism
• Regional & international Cooperation (e.g. Investment)
• Misunderstanding: FTA is “DUTY Free”
Iceland-China Bilateral Trade 1999-2014
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Exports Fob Imports CIF
ISK Million
Iceland-China Bilateral Trade (2010-2015)
0,0
10.000,0
20.000,0
30.000,0
40.000,0
50.000,0
60.000,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
28.731,4
35.121,5
42.743,1
47.841,6
46.390,4
54.914,30
Export
Import
0,0
1.000,0
2.000,0
3.000,0
4.000,0
5.000,0
6.000,0
7.000,0
8.000,0
9.000,0
10.000,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
3.413,9
5.430,7
7.646,97.020,1
4.803,2
9.569,80
ExportISK Million
0 1.000.000.000 2.000.000.000
Other whole-frozen fish
Whole-frozen flatfish
Other marine products
Other manufacturing products
Frozen capelin, whole or in fillets
Whole-frozen redfish
Other fish oil
Electronic weighing machinery
Cod liver oil for human consumption
Miscellaneous
Whole-frozen cod
Frozen shrimp
Frozen lobster
Medicine and medical prod.
Frozen capelin roe
Other frozen cod fillets
Other agricultural products
Preserved marine products
Frozen herring, whole or in fillets
Non-alcoholic beverages
0 1.000.000.000 2.000.000.000
Whole-frozen redfish
Other whole-frozen fish
Whole-frozen flatfish
Other marine products
Electronic weighing machinery
Other manufacturing products
Frozen capelin, whole or in fillets
Cod liver oil for human consumption
Other fish oil
Frozen capelin roe
Other frozen fish roe
Other frozen redfish fillets
Preserved marine products
Other agricultural products
Other frozen cod fillets
Other block-frozen fish fillets
Non-alcoholic beverages
Medicine and medical products
Frozen herring, whole or in fillets
Other frozen fish fillets
0 1.000.000.000
Whole-frozen flatfish
Other whole-frozen fish
Whole-frozen redfish
Other marine products
Cod liver oil for human consumption
Other fish oil
Other manufacturing products
Electronic weighing machinery
Food processing machinery
Frozen shrimp
Export 2013 Export 2015
Export 2014
0,0
1.000,0
2.000,0
3.000,0
4.000,0
5.000,0
6.000,0
7.000,0
8.000,0
9.000,0
10.000,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Export
China StatisticsUSD Thousand
66125
380
72,48
0
100
200
300
400
China Import from Iceland China Export to Iceland Icelandic Import from China Icelandic Export to China
Statistics
Discrepancy
2015
7.101 7.658
9.539
14.664 14.376
12.501
4.133
7.558
8.896
7.580
5.9716.607
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0,0
10.000,0
20.000,0
30.000,0
40.000,0
50.000,0
60.000,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
3.413,95.430,7
7.646,97.020,1
4.803,2
9.569,80
28.731,4
35.121,5
42.743,1
47.841,6
46.390,4
54.914,30
Export Import
Icelandic Statistics
USD Million
ISK Million
Tourism 2014：Huge Potential
26.037180.503
Russia Japan Finland Switzerland
Italy Poland Spain China
Netherlands Canada Sweden Denmark
Norway France Germany Other countries
U.S.A. U.K.
9.532
5.759 5.3685.194
8.784
14.036
17.597
26.037
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Russia Japan China
China Tourists: New Opportunities
26037
47643
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2014 2015
242805
241024
65822
51402
49225
47,643
46654
2954627166
27079 25935
23817
16547 16021
4877
U.S.A. U.K. France Norway
Denmark China Canada Netherlands
Spain Poland Switzerland Italy
Japan Finland Russia
Tourism Shopping: Story of best Sales in Japan
What if each of the
47,000 Chinese
travellers spending
USD 1,000 on buying
consumer goods in
Iceland?
What can be offered
in Iceland?
• China 2015
• Understanding China
• China-Iceland Economic Cooperation
2015
• Iceland-China Economic Cooperation:
Beyond Bilateral Nature
Iceland-China Trade & EconomicCooperation After FTA
Global Value/Production Chain: Where is China?
Tertiary/service
Secondary/manufacturing
Primary/natural resources
“One Country, Three Worlds”
Rural areas
2nd-tier cities
and some east
coastal areas
1st-tier cities
and some
east coastal
areas
Beyond the Bilateral & In the Future
• China a global economy with global vision
• Iceland’s regional andglobal importance
Iceland：Regional Importance
Iceland: Global Importance
Great Minds Think Alike
