CHICK PEA PRODUCTION 2009 EDIBLE BEAN PRODUCTION 2009 EDIBLE BEAN IMPORTS TO MEXICO MEXICAN...

• CHICK PEA PRODUCTION 2009

• EDIBLE BEAN PRODUCTION 2009

• EDIBLE BEAN IMPORTS TO MEXICO

MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009

• PRODUCTION STATES

• SINALOA (60%) (RAINFALL AND IRRIGATION)

• SONORA (40%)(IRRIGATION)

• BAJA (10%) (IRRIGATION)


CHICK PEAS 2009

INCREASING CONCERNS ABOUT POTENTIAL SIZE OF 2009 CROP IN SINALOA MAINLY DUE TO:

1. GOOD EARLY RAIN IN OCTOBER, VERY SCARCE LATER RAINS

2. RELATIVELY WARM WINTER

3. HARVEST PROGRESS AT 95%


CHICK PEAS 2009

SONORA AND BAJA, EXPECT LOWER YIELDS THAN LAST YEAR DUE TO:

1. RELATIVELY WARM WINTER

2. HARVEST PROGRESS AT 3%

3. COMPLETION OF HARVEST EXPECTED BY THE END OF MAY


CHICK PEAS 2009


CHICK PEAS 2009

CHICK PEA PRODUCTION 2009 VS 2008 IN HECTARES

STATE HECTARES 2009 HECTARES 2008 HA CHANGE % CHANGE

SINALOA IRRIGATION 28,967 25,821 3,146 12.18%

SINALOA RAINFALL 12,320 11,434 886 7.74%

SONORA 19,015 21,260 -2,245 -10.56%

BAJA 4,850 5,230 -380 -7.26%

TOTAL 65,152 63,745 1,407 -2.20%


CHICK PEAS 2009

CHICK PEA PRODUCTION 2009 VS 2008 AVERAGE ESTIMATED YIELDS IN MT

STATE 2009 MT PER HA 2008 MT PER HA MT CHANGE % CHANGE

SINALOA RAINFALL 0.6 0.9 -0.3 -33.3%

SINALOA IRRIGATION 1.65 2.1 -0.45 -21.4%

SONORA 2.1 2.33 0 -9.87%

BAJA 2.1 2.10 0 0%


CHICK PEAS 2009

CHICK PEA PRODUCTION 2009 VS 2008 IN METRIC TONS

STATE 2009 IN MT 2008 IN MT DIF IN MT % CHANGE

SINALOA IRRIGATION 47,795 54,224 -6,429 -11.9%

SINALOA RAINFALL 7,392 10,290 -2,898 -28.2%

SONORA 39,931 49,961 -10,030 -20.07%

BAJA 10,185 10,983 -798 -7.26%

TOTAL 105,303 125,458 -20,155 -16.06%

• ESTIMATED TONNAGE HARVEST IS LOWER BY 16%

• PRODUCTION OF 105,000 MT TRANSLATE INTO 90,000 MT EXPORT QUALITY

• CARRYOVER ESTIMATED AT 16,000 MT

• TIGHT SUPPLY BASED ON 2008 EXPORTS


CHICK PEAS 2009


CHICK PEAS 2009

CHICK PEA 2008 EXPORT PER MONTH IN KG

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE

3,752,228 4,732,814 13,261,616 9,692,753 8,966,390 10,667,465

JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DIC

10,776,752 11,455,078 12,119,624 10,476,561 7,092,299 5,808,913

TOTAL 108,802,493

• 2009 IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES VS 2008

• CURRENT PRICES 20% TO 25% LOWER THAN LAST YEAR AVERAGE, WHAT WILL DEMAND DO?

• DIFFERENCE IN PRICE TO INDIAN CHICK PEAS IS NOT AS WIDE, WHAT WILL DEMAND DO?


CHICK PEAS 2009

• AT TODAY´S PRICES LEVELS FARMERS HAVE VERY LIMITED INCENTIVES FOR PLANTING CHICK PEAS

FOR 2009

• WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF SHORTFALL WILL HAVE A MARKET INFLUENCE AND WHEN?


CHICK PEAS 2009

PRODUCTION STATES BY IMPORTANCE AND PERIODS OF HARVEST

1. ZACATECAS (OCT-DIC)2. DURANGO (OCT-DIC)3. SAN LUIS (OCT-DIC)

4. CHIHUAHUA (SEP-NOV)5. SINALOA (JAN-MAR) ´096. NAYARIT (JAN-MAR) ´09

MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009 EDIBLE BEANS

2009

• SIX STATES ACCOUNT FOR 70% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION

• SEEDING EXTENSION INCREASE BY 4.3% OVERALL VS LAST CROP

• YIELDS DECREASE FOR MOST REGIONS, AND FINAL PRODUCTION TONNAGE DECREASE BY

1.36% VS LAST CROP


2009


2009

EDIBLE BEAN PRODUCTION 2008 VS 2007 IN HECTARES STATE 2008 IN HA 2007 IN HA HA CHANGE % CHANGE

CHIHUAHUA 99,769 80,508 19,261 23.92%DURANGO 205,215 202,029 3,186 1.58%NAYARIT ´09 49,838 57,181 -7,343 -12.84SAN LUIS 108,797 108,591 206 0.19%SINALOA ´09 92,851 82,704 10,147 12.27%ZACATECAS 441,396 425,686 15,710 3.69% TOTAL 997,866 956,699 41,167 4.30%


2009

EDIBLE BEAN PRODUCTION 2008 VS 2007 IN MT STATE 2008 IN MT 2007 IN MT HA CHANGE % CHANGE

CHIHUAHUA 75,360 61,829 13,531 21.88%DURANGO 103,819 109,621 -5,802 -5.29%NAYARIT 2009 51,300 70,345 -19,045 -27.07%SAN LUIS 60,617 39,586 21,031 53.12%SINALOA 2009 128,561 139,448 -10,887 -7.80%ZACATECAS 221,930 229,620 -7,690 -3.34% TOTAL 641,587 650,449 -8,862 -1.36%

• EVEN WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN PRODUCTION, DOMESTIC PRICES HIGHER THAT LAST YEAR FOR

MOST VARIETIES

• HIGHER PRICES DUE TO VERY LIMITED CARRYOVER INTO 2008

• HARD TO ESTIMATE CARRYOVER DUE TO LACK OF INFORMATION AND HIGH NUMBER OF

PARTICIPANTS


2009


2009

TOTAL EDIBLE BEAN CARRYOVER 2005 TO 2008

YEAR CARRYOVER IN ´000 OF METRIC TONS

2005 200 TO 240

2006 180 TO 210

2007 130 TO 160

2008 20 TO 40

• LAST TIME CARRY OVER WAS AT THIS LEVEL WAS IN 2001

• SUPPLY FOR MOST BEANS IS AT SHORTAGE

• TOTAL SHORTAGE ESTIMATED AT 150,000 MT FOR ALL VARIETIES

• SHORTAGE REFLECTS ON INCREASES ON IMPORTS


2009

• FARMERS HIGHLY INCENTIVIZED TO SEEDING EDIBLE BEANS FOR 2009

• MOST REGIONS EXPECTED TO INCREASE PLATING OF ALL VARIETIES OF BEANS

• FINAL PLANTING INTENTION DEPENDS ON GRAIN PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATE BEHAVIOR


2009

• IMPORTS ONLY ALLOWED FROM USA AND CANADA

• INCREASE IN IMPORTS VS LAST YEAR


EDIBLE BEAN IMPORTS 2009


EDIBLE BEAN IMPORTS 2009

EDIBLE BEAN IMPORTS JULY TO DIC OF 2008 VS JULY TO DIC OF 2007 IN MT LAST HALF 2008 LAST HALF 2007 MT DIF % CHANGEWHITE BEANS CANADA 222 211 11 5.21%USA 1,265 915 350 38.25%

BLACK BEANS CANADA 446 466 -20 -4.29%USA 22,601 16,508 6,093 36.90%

OTHER BEANS CANADA 3,542 823 2,719 330%USA 36,548 22,637 13,911 61.45%

TOTAL 64,624 41,560 23,064 55.50%

IMPORTS DURING 2009 WILL DEPEND ON TWO MAIN POINTS

1. EXCHANGE RATE BEHAVIOR

2. PRICES OF USA AND CANADA BEANS FOR CURRENT CROP

MEXICAN STATISTICS 2009 EDIBLE BEAN IMPORTS

2009

SECRETARIA DE ECONOMÍA MÉXICO

SAGARPA MÉXICO

PORTAL AGRÍCOLA MEXICANO

ADUAMEX


“REFERENCES”

CHICK PEA PRODUCTION 2009 EDIBLE BEAN PRODUCTION 2009 EDIBLE BEAN IMPORTS TO MEXICO MEXICAN...

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