Chicago crime conference

www.shapingtomorrow.com

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Presented by:Dr Mike Jackson

Founder – Shaping Tomorrow

Leading in a Global Environment

The Future of Crime to 2030

http://www.shapingtomorrow.com/



2Shaping Tomorrow




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Competitorsand new

approaches

Source: Sheila Moorcroft

Demographics Values andlifestyles

Energy andresources

Worldevents

Legislation

Newtechnologies

Economictrends

KeyIssues/

question(s)

Future of Crime to 2030

There are thousands of trends at any one timeHow do you make sense of and respond to it all?




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Technology trendsDriverless carsGoogle Glass/Oculus riftDrones/Exoskeletons/RobotsWearables/CloakingCloud/Big dataCyber security IoT and SMART everythingMobile payments/self serve!Artificial intelligence3D printed guns, drugs & ?

For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction – Newton

One man’s meat is another’s poison –Lucretius

The future is already here: it’s just unevenly distributed -William Gibson




55Business trendsCrowd-sourcingZero cost40% of existing jobs eliminated by 2020!But, talent shortages

and, many new roles

Predictive analyticsReal-time artificial intelligenceSocial networking




66Values and lifestylesSocial

Behavioral monitoringInstant gratificationAgeingLack of trustFinancial instabilityUnemploymentCivil unrest

https://uk-mg-bt.mail.yahoo.com/neo/launch?.partner=bt-1&.rand=1n3ejdfu45vtd#mail




7Political trends

Rising inequalityCyber securityTransparency vs privacyDemographics

Time, distance and price are collapsing

TRUST THE KEY USP!!

Anticipation and preparedness CRITICAL!! BUT HOW?

Proactive forward policy required




88Potential surprises

Supply chain threatsTerrorismInfrastructure damageFinancial riskExtreme weatherExtraction/frackingTechnology misuseConventional and asymmetric threats

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9Future policing?Individualized crime assessments/organisation dataExploiting intelligence to assist officers in real-timeGreater focus on cyber crimeContinued fight against drug trafficking/BitcoinsOpen-source intelligence inc videoLegal CloudsSMART policemen and vehiclesRobo-cops!Greater risk, change and business management skills

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1010Preparing for the future

Horizon scanningStrategic foresightAction planningChange preparednessNetworking

A switch from static news gathering, limited analysis and reactive response to:

Dynamic intelligence reconnaissance, whole system thinking and anticipatory response and preparedness




1111Early warning

Using social & web intelligence to see what’s coming

Cypruscrisis

Growthreturns

UkraineChina

Source: Shaping Tomorrow

Graphical pattern finding




1212Strategic foresight

Automatic and crowd scans for: search terms,organizations,peoplescanners,protesters, regulators etc.

Continuous and systematic scanning




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1. Geopolitical tensions over access to strategic water resources could become more systemically impactful.

2. Among other existential risks is the possibility that breakthroughs in artificial intelligence could move rapidly in unexpected directions

3. The inevitable spread of drone technology will create new hard-to-address capabilities for actors

4. Organized-crime groups or national militaries have an overwhelming, dominant and lasting advantage over defenders could be just one disruptive technology away. Knowing which is key?

5. more ..

80 page report read in 20 seconds

Auto scanning example

Auto foresight




14Aggregated foresight




1515Watson

Cognitive technology that processes information more like a human than a computer—by understanding natural language, generating hypotheses based on evidence and learning

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IBM's Watson Can Now Debate Its Opponents



http://io9.com/ibms-watson-can-now-debate-its-opponents-1571837847

http://io9.com/ibms-watson-can-now-debate-its-opponents-1571837847


1616Modeling, gaming and simulationStructured data analytics

Visual dashboards as early warning systemsBalanced scorecardsPartnership approaches

MMORPGS e.g IFTF Warcraft equivalents




1717World data/future data

Rising interest in mixing large data sets

e.g crime and happiness

Massive funding for global intelligence projectsData fusion e.g GapMinderForward Indicators e.g.

Shock Index




1818Predictive analytics

Aim to move from single keyword to real-time, multiple meta data searchesScour the web, extract, analyze, rank, make it usefulCollaboration, knowledge management, search and discovery, data integration

Big Data uses for Foresight




1919Content profiling

Filtering Insights and Trends by user profile:e.g. industry, interests, expertise

Sentiment analysise.g. fear, excitement

Narrative capturee.g. ideas

Latent Semantic Indexinge.g. concept searches

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2020Think & Act

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2121Law enforcement - strategic foresight intelligenceRequirements

Knowledge managementSystematicCollaborativePersistentNational serviceLow cost

BenefitsStrategicAgilePersistentResilientInnovationRisk aware

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A national/global law enforcement Oracle?




2222Thanks for listening

Questions? Contact me to receive this presentation in your organization?Mike Jackson

(H) 01902 851918(O) 01902 851985(M) 07966 155912(E) [email protected](S)* shapingtomorrow

or visit us at shapingtomorrow.com* Skype

* Skype



mailto:[email protected]

Chicago crime conference

Data & Analytics

Transcript of Chicago crime conference