Chemical transport modeling in support of NPS-CIRA activities Mike Barna 1 Marco Rodriguez 2 Kristi...
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Transcript of Chemical transport modeling in support of NPS-CIRA activities Mike Barna 1 Marco Rodriguez 2 Kristi...
![Page 1: Chemical transport modeling in support of NPS-CIRA activities Mike Barna 1 Marco Rodriguez 2 Kristi Gebhart 1 Bret Schichtel 1 Bill Malm 1 Jenny Hand 2.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062719/56649eea5503460f94bfbde5/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Chemical transport modeling in support of NPS-CIRA activities
Mike Barna1
Marco Rodriguez2
Kristi Gebhart1
Bret Schichtel1
Bill Malm1
Jenny Hand2
1 ARD-NPS, Fort Collins, CO2 CIRA, Fort Collins, CO
June 16, 2011National Park ServiceU.S. Department of the Interior Cooperative Institute
for Research in the Atmosphere
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Air quality models, generally speaking
• Air quality models are ‘transfer functions’ that convert emissions to impacts (concentration & deposition) at downwind receptors
• They are useful for…• Filling in gaps of unmonitored species• Developing source apportionments• Evaluating ‘what if’ scenarios• A component in a weight-of-evidence evaluation
• Want to employ current ‘state-of-the-science’ models in our work
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Models used for regulatory work
puff models
near-fieldmodels
oneatmosphere
models
e.g., AERMOD
What are the peak exposure levels very
near a source?
e.g., Calpuff
What are the impacts from this powerplant
plume?
e.g., CAMx
What is the chemical state of the
atmosphere, and which sources influenced it?
complexity
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How CAMx works
• CAMx treats the atmosphere as a big box (the ‘model domain’) which is then chopped-up into a bunch of little boxes.
• In each little box, the chemical evolution over time is evaluated, and once per hour the concentration and deposition of species is reported.
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Things that CAMx can do (or try to do)
• Sulfate• Ozone• Oxidized nitrogen• Reduced nitrogen• Organics• Deposition• Wind blown dust• Toxics/mercury
easier
harder
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Current modeling efforts
• Simulating oxidized and reduced nitrogen impacts at Rocky Mountain NP (RoMANS2)
• Examining the ‘carrying capacity’ of western US airsheds in terms of nitrogen deposition and ozone
• Air quality impacts from oil and gas development
• Fire impacts on regional ozone (DEASCO3)
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Need a large-scale perspective
• Pollutants and precursors can travel 100’s – 1000’s kms before reaching a receptor
• Lots of things can happen en route:• Chemical transformation• Deposition
(Tong & Mauzerall, 2008)
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The NPS – CIRA modelers
• Kristi Gebhart (NPS), Marco Rodriguez (CIRA), Mike Barna (NPS)
• Modeling hardware:• 30 Xeon cores• 60 GB memory• 50 TB storage
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Two examples of current modeling
• Nitrogen deposition
• Ozone
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Nitrogen deposition
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• NH3: rapid deposition, NH3 NH4+, no gas-phase oxidation
• NOx: complicated photochemistry, HNO3 NO3-, some species rapidly deposit (HNO3, NO.)
NH3 NOx
Where does the nitrogen go?
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CASTNet species:
example ‘missing N’ species:
Simulated nitrogen
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NH4+
NO3
SO4=
NH3
HNO3
SO2
Beaver Meadows (RMNP) Grant, Nebraska
RoMANS CAMx results, April 2006
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spring: summer:
Example CAMx apportionment (w/PSAT)
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CAMx tracer runs
• Another apportionment tool is to treat emissions as conserved tracers, and then apply statistical models to indicate largest contributors
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Estimated NH3 emissions in Brush, CO
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Ozone
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18(Jaffe & Ray, 2007)
Western ozone trends
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Simulated 8hr ozone (2005)
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Observed peak 8hr ozone (2004 – 2006)
(WRAP, 2010)
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NOx emissions from O&G
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Ozone impacts from oil & gas emissions
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Ozone impacts from NGS NOx
National Park Peak hourly ozone impactfrom NGS (ppb)
Grand Canyon (Marble Canyon) 15Grand Canyon (Grand Canyon Village) 6Canyonlands 3Capitol Reef 7Bryce Canyon 5Zion 3Mesa Verde 2
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Should we focus on VOCs or NOx?
HCHO
NO2
HCHO/NO2
HCHO and NO2 can be detected from the OMI satellite, and provide
‘indicator species’ to help assess whether a region is
VOC or NOx limited.
HCHO/NO2 > 1Suggests NOx limited
(Duncan et al., 2010)
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Summary
• Established modeling group working on issues important to NPS, including nitrogen deposition and ozone
• It’s notable that several of our projects are linked to nitrogen emissions
• Future projects:• Climate change influence on regional air quality• Fire impacts