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yi = + GI

{ }i

+

T1989

TI{ =}i

+

+

T1989

TG

I{ }i

I{ =}i

+ Xi + i,

yi I{ }i

i

I{ =}i

i

T1989 {1990, 1992, 1993, 1995} TG T1989

TG = E(y| , ,X ) E(y| , , X)

[E(y| , ,X ) E(y| , ,X)] ,

E(| , ,X ) E(| , ,X ) =

= E(| , ,X) E(| , , X) .

TG1990

= 0 TG1992

TG1993

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TG1995

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