Charts for Inflation Report 1/2003. 30%50%70%90% Chart 1 Consumer price inflation 1). Projection and...
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Transcript of Charts for Inflation Report 1/2003. 30%50%70%90% Chart 1 Consumer price inflation 1). Projection and...
Charts for Inflation Report 1/2003
0
1
2
3
4
5
2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
1
2
3
4
5
30% 50% 70% 90%
Chart 1 Consumer price inflation1). Projection and uncertainty based on a sight deposit rate of 5 ½ per cent and the average exchange rate for February. 12-month rise. Per cent.
1) Adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE)
The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for consumer price inflation.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
1
2
3
4
5
2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
1
2
3
4
5
30% 50% 70% 90%
Chart 2 Consumer price inflation1). Projection and uncertainty based on market expectations of the sight deposit rate and a weaker exchange rate. 12-month rise. Per cent.
1) Adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE)
The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for consumer price inflation.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 20020
2
4
6
8
10
Norway
Trading partners
Chart 1.1 Labour costs¹) in Norway and among trading partners. Percentage change from previous year.
¹) Hourly labour costs in manufacturing
Sources: Ministry of Finance, TRCIS and Norges Bank
Chart 1.2 Three-month money market rates for Norway and the US.
0
2
4
6
8
10
1995 1997 1999 2001 20030
2
4
6
8
10
Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank
Norway
US
Chart 1.3 Equity prices, long-term interest rates in the US, oil prices in USD and price of gold. Index, week 1 2001=100. Weekly figures.
60
80
100
120
140
jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 02 jan 0360
80
100
120
140
Sources: EcoWin, The Economist and Wilshire Associates
Wilshire 5000
Oil price
Interest rates (10 years)
Gold price
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2001 2002 2003
80
90
100
110
120
Chart 1.4 Import-weighted exchange rate (I-44), trade-weighted exchange rate1) and interest rate differential against other countries2).. Weekly figures
1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone
Source: Norges Bank
I-44 (right-hand scale)3-month interest
rate differential (left-hand scale)
TWI (right-hand scale)
0
2
4
6
8
1995 1997 1999 2001 20030
2
4
6
8
Chart 1.5 Unemployed (LFS), registered unemployed and persons participating in labour market programmes. Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted1)
Registered unemployed and labour market programmes
LFS unemployment
Registered unemployed
1) LFS unemployment: 3-month moving average
Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour
2,22
2,24
2,26
2,28
2,30
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20032,22
2,24
2,26
2,28
2,30
Chart 1.6 Employed persons according to LFS. Jan 1998 - Dec 2002. In millions. Seasonally adjusted
Source: Statistics Norway
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Chart 1.7 The output gap1) in the Norwegian economy. 1980-2002
1) See box page 40.
Source: Norges Bank
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Chart 1.8 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total1) and by supplier sector2). 12-month rise. Per cent
1) Norges Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway2) Norges Bank's estimates
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Goods and services produced in Norway
CPI-ATE
Imported consumer goods
0
2
4
6
jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 02 jan 030
2
4
6
Chart 1.9 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Domestic components. 12-month rise. Per cent
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Services with wages as a dominant price factor
House rent
Other services
Domestically produced goods excl. energy products
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
Cars
Chart 1.10 Consumer prices for some imported goods adjusted for tax changes. 12-month rise. Per cent.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Clothing and footwear
Audiovisual equipment
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1999 2000 2001 2002 20030
1
2
3
4
5
6
Chart 1.11 Consumer prices (CPI). Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. 12-month rise. Per cent
CPI-AT: CPI adjusted for tax changesCPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products1) Norges Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CPI-AT1)
CPI-ATE1)
CPI
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2001 2002 200350
100
150
200
250
300
350
Chart 1.12 Electricity prices. Index. 1 January 1998= 100
Sources: Statistics Norway, Nord Pool, The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and Norges Bank
Spot prices including taxes and transmission tariffs
Electricity in CPI
Source: EcoWin
40
60
80
100
120
jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 02 jan 0340
60
80
100
120
All share Index EnergyManufacturing FinanceICT*
* The ICT (Information and Communication Technology) index is calculated as the average sum of the IT and Telecom indices.
Chart 1.13 Developments in some indices on the Oslo Stock Exchange. Daily figures, 01.01.01. – 27.02.03
0
5
10
15
20
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030
5
10
15
20
Chart 1.14 Credit from domestic sources (C2). 12-month growth. Per cent
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Credit to households
Credit to non-financial enterprises
Credit to municipalities
Chart 1.15 Norges Bank`s sight deposit rate and short-term money market rates. Nominal market rates. Daily figures, 01.01.01 – 28.02.03.
5
6
7
8
9
2001 2002 20035
6
7
8
9
Source: Norges Bank
Sight deposit rate
1-week rate
3-month rate
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1.16 Forward rates for Norway and Germany. Calculated future short-term rates 2002-2013.
0
2
4
6
8
02 04 06 08 10 12 140
2
4
6
8
28 February
24 October
Norway
Germany
Chart 1.17 Interest rate expectations in the US. Actual development and expected key rate.
0
2
4
6
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040
2
4
6
Source: Norges Bank
1 JulyKey rate
24 February
24 October
0
2
4
6
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040
2
4
6
Source: Norges Bank
1 JulyKey rate
24 February
24 October
Chart 1.18 Interest rate expectations in the euro area. Actual development and expected key rate.
5,5
6
6,5
7
7,5
8
5,5
6
6,5
7
7,5
8
01.11 01.12 01.01 01.02
Chart 1.19 Interval for the sight deposit rate in Strategy Document 3/2002 for November 2002 to the end of February 2003 and actual development.
Interval in Strategy Document 3/02
Sight deposit rate
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2.1 GDP growth in the US, Japan and the euro area. Seasonally adjusted volume growth from the previous quarter. Per cent.
-2
-1
0
1
2
2001 2002-2
-1
0
1
2US Japan
Euro area Trading partners
Sources: BEA, EU Com., Eurostat, Economic Planning Agency, National Statistics, EcoWin and Norges Bank
Chart 2.2 Gross business investment. Volume1) . Index Q1 2000 = 100.
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2000 2001 200285
90
95
100
105
110
115
Euro area
US
Japan
UK
Sweden
1) Figures for Sweden and the euro area include dwellings
Sources: EcoWin, US Department of Commerce, National Statistics, ESRI, EUROSTAT and Statistics Sweden
60
90
120
150
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-30
-20
-10
0
10
Sources: European Commission and The Conference Board
Euro area(right-hand scale)
US (left-hand scale)
UK (right-hand scale)
Chart 2.3 Consumer confidence indicators in the US, the UK and the euro area. Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. Monthly figures
Chart 2.4 Key rates.
0
2
4
6
1999 2000 2001 2002 20030
2
4
6
Source: EcoWin
UK
Euro area
US
Japan
Source: EcoWin
Chart 2.5 Current balance in Japan, Germany and the US. Per cent of GDP. Quarterly figures.
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
US
Japan
Germany
Chart 2.6 Producer prices. Index, Jan.1999 = 100. Monthly figures.
97
100
103
106
109
112
1999 2000 2001 2002 200397
100
103
106
109
112
Sources: Datastream and Norges Bank
US
UK
Japan
Trading partners
Euro area
Chart 2.7 Rise in prices for goods in the consumer price index. Percentage change from the same quarter the previous year.
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Source: Datastream
US, excl. food and energy
UK
Euro area, excl. food and energy
Japan
Chart 2.8 Rise in prices for services in the consumer price index and wage growth. Percentage change from the same quarter last year.
0
1
2
3
4
5
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020
1
2
3
4
5
Sources: EcoWin and Datastream
US
Euro area
CPI Wage growth
Chart 2.9 Oil prices Brent Blend. USD per barrel. Daily figures.
0
10
20
30
40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040
10
20
30
40
Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank
Futures27 February 2003
IR 1/03
-4
-2
0
2
4
-4
-2
0
2
4
1990 1994 1998 2002
Chart 3.1 The output gap in the Norwegian economy. 1990-2005
Source: Norges Bank
-15
0
15
1970 1980 1990 2000-15
0
15Local currency
Common currency
Chart 3.2 Relative labour costs. Divergence from the average since 1970.Per cent. 1970 – 2003.
Sources: Ministry of Finance, TRCIS and Norges Bank
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Chart 3.3 Industrial confidence indicator. Seasonally adjusted diffusion index1).
1) Values below zero indicate that the majority of the industrial leaders expect weaker development the coming three months.
Source: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
20
40
60
80
1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 20030
20
40
60
80
Chart 3.4 Petroleum investment. Actual investment and projections. Billions of NOK. Constant 1999 prices.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
2
4
6
Q3 00 Q1 02 Q3 01 Q1 02 Q3 020
2
4
6
Transport1)
Chart 3.5 Gross investment in the service sector. Billions of NOK. Constant 1999 prices.
1) Excluding pipeline transport and foreign shipping
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Business services
Retail trade
Post and telecommunications
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-30
-15
0
15
30
45
Total
Personal financial situation
The country`s economic situation
Chart 3.6 Consumer confidence indicator1). Unadjusted figures. 1999 Q1 - 2002 Q3
1) Provides an expression of the share with a positive assessment of the current situation and outlook for the future less the share with a negative assessment.
Source: Norsk Gallup Institutt AS
0
5
10
15
20
25
1998 2000 20020
5
10
15
20
25
Chart 3.7 House prices and credit to households. 12-month rise. Per cent
Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, FINN.no, ECON and Norges Bank
Credit to households
House prices
90
110
130
150
170
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 20000
3
6
9
12
Chart 3.8 Household debt as a percentage of disposable income¹) and household interest expenses after tax as a percentage of cash income. 1980-2002
Interest expenses(right-hand scale)
Debt(left-hand scale)
1) Figures for household disposable income taken from the national accounts
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
1990 1995 2000 2005
Chart 3.9 Change in the structural non-oil budget balance1). 1990-2003
1) The budget balance as a percentage of trend mainland GDP; change from previous year.
Source: National Budget 2003 and Norges Bank
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2001 2004 2007 20100
1
2
3
4
5
6
Chart 3.10 Structural non-oil deficit. Per cent of trend mainland GDP.
Sources: Long-Term Programme 2002 – 2005, Revised National Budget 2002 and National Budget 2003
Revised National Budget 2002
Long-Term Programme
National Budget 2003
55
65
75
85
95
1993 1996 1999 200255
65
75
85
95
Manufacturing
Other market-oriented activities in mainland Norway
Chart 3.11 Wage shares. Labour costs as a share of factor costs. Per cent.
Sources: TRCIS and Statistics Norway
0
2
4
6
8
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004-4
-2
0
2
4
Chart 3.12 Change in employment from previous year. Per cent. Unemployment1) as a percentage of the labour force. 1980-2005
1) According to LFS
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Unemployment rate, LFS(left-hand scale)
Employed(right-hand scale)
67
69
71
73
75
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005-4
-2
0
2
4
Chart 3.13 Change in the labour force from previous year. Per cent. The labour force as a percentage of the population aged 16-74 (labour force participation rate). 1980-2005
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Change in labour force (right-hand scale)
Labour force participation rate(left-hand scale)
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 4.1 Technical assumption for the exchange rate in the baseline scenario.
84
88
92
96
100
104
108
2001 2002 2003 200484
88
92
96
100
104
108
IR 1/03: 94.8
IR 1/03: 88.3
Trade-weighted exchange rate index (1990=100)
Import-weighted exchange rate
(1995=100)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 20050
2
4
6
8
10
Source: Norges Bank
Sight deposit rate
3-month money market rate
IR 1/03: 5.5
Chart 4.2 Technical assumption for the sight deposit rate in the baseline scenario.
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Chart 4.3 Consumer and producer prices. Trading partners. Percentage rise.
Source: Datastream, OECD and Norges Bank
Producer prices
Consumer prices
0
1
2
3
4
5
2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
1
2
3
4
5
30% 50% 70% 90%
Chart 4.4 Consumer price inflation1). Projection and uncertainty based on a sight deposit rate of 5½ per cent and the average exchange rate for February. 12-month rise. Per cent.
1) Adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE)
The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for consumer price inflation.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005-4
-2
0
2
4
6
CPI-ATE
Chart 4.5 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) in the baseline scenario. Total and distributed by supplier sector. 12-month rise. Per cent
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Goods and services produced in Norway
Imported consumer goods
-2
0
2
4
6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005-2
0
2
4
6
Chart 4.6 Consumer prices (CPI) in the baseline scenario. Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent.
CPI
CPI-ATE
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 4.7 Forward rate for NOK (I-44) and technical assumption in the baseline scenario. Index.
80
90
100
110
1999 2001 2003 200580
90
100
110
Source: Norges Bank
Forward rate
Average last month (88.3)
Import-weighted exchange rate (I-44)
Chart 4.8 Expectations concerning short-term money market rates1) and technical assumption in the baseline scenario. Per cent.
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
2
4
6
8
10
1) Three-month money market rates up to and including Q4. Three-month forward rates are estimated using four money market rates and five government bond yields with diffrerent maturities as observed on 28 February.
Source: Norges Bank
Forward interest rates on 28 February
Assumption IR 1/03
0
1
2
3
4
2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
1
2
3
4
CPI-ATE
Forward interest rate and forward exchange rate
Baseline scenario
Chart 4.9 Different scenarios for consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) with different assumptions for interest rate and exchange rate. 12-month rise. Per cent
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
1
2
3
4
5
2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
1
2
3
4
5
30% 50% 70% 90%
Chart 4.10 Consumer price inflation1). Projection and uncertainty based on forward interest rates and exchange rates. 12-month rise. Per cent.
1) Adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE)
The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for consumer price inflation.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1 Trade-weighted exchange rate index (TWI) and three-month interest rate differential. July 1999 – Jan 2003.
0
1
2
3
4
5
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
90
95
100
105
110
115
Interest rate differential, (left-hand scale)
TWI, (right-hand scale1) )
1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone
Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank
Chart 2 Trade-weighted exchange rate index (TWI) and equity prices in the US (S&P 500). July1999 – Jan 2003.
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1999 2000 2001 2002 200390
95
100
105
110
115Equity prices, (left-hand scale)
TWI, (right-hand scale1) )
1) A falling curve denotes an appreciation of the krone
Source: Norges Bank
6
9
12
15
18
21
1999 2000 2001 2002 200390
95
100
105
110
115
GHI, (left-hand scale)
Chart 3 Trade-weighted exchange rate index (TWI) and GHI. July1999 – Jan 2003.
1) A falling curve denotes an appreciation of the krone
TWI, (right-hand scale1) )
Source: Norges Bank
10
15
20
25
30
35
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
90
95
100
105
110
115
Oil price, (left-hand scale2) )
1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone2) USD per barrel
Chart 4 Trade-weighted exchange rate index (TWI) and oil price (Brent Blend). July 1999 – Jan 2003.
TWI, (right-hand scale1) )
Source: Norges Bank
90
95
100
105
110
115
1999 2000 2001 2002 200390
95
100
105
110
115
Actual
Estimated
Chart 5 Actual and predicted value of the trade-weighted exchange rate index (TWI). July 1999 – Jan 2003.
1) A falling curve denotes an appreciation of the krone
Chart 1 Actual GDP and trend GDP. Billions of NOK.
Constant 1999-prices. 1980-20021)
600
800
1000
1200
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000600
800
1000
1200
1) GDP figures for 2002 are estimates. Figures for trend output up to and including 1999 are calculated by using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Thereafter the trend is an estimate.
Trend
Actual GDP
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 2 The output gap in the Norwegian economy. Deviations from trend mainland GDP in per cent. 1980-2002.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Source: Norges Bank
70
80
90
100
1995 1997 1999 2001 200370
80
90
100
Chart 1 Sterling. Consumer price inflation, cars and motorcycles. UK. Index 1996=100. Jan. 95/ Jan.96 - Jan. 03.
Sources: National Statistics, Bank of England and Norges Bank
Nominal exchange rate
Cars and motorcycles1
1Price index for purchase of Vehicles in Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP).
85
90
95
100
105
110
1996 1998 2000 200285
90
95
100
105
110
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Import-weighted exchange rate I-44
Chart 2 Import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) and consumer price inflation for cars and motorcycles. Index. 1996=100. Jan. 96 - Jan. 03.
Cars and motorcycles
Chart 1 Projections for some main macroeconomic aggregates for 2001 and actual developments. Annual growth. Per cent.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Projections for 2001 Actual
DemandMainland Norway
GDPMainland Norway
Registered unemployed (rate)
Annual wage growth
CPI
Chart 2 Projections for some main macroeconomic aggregates for 2002 and actual developments1). Annual growth. Per cent..
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Projections for 2002 Actual
1) Actual developments based on estimates in IR 1/03
DemandMainland Norway
GDPMainland Norway
Registered unemployed (rate)
Annual wage growth
CPI-ATE
Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 1 Inflation (CPI-ATE). Actual and projected. 12-month rise. Per cent.
0
1
2
3
4
2000 2001 2002 2003 20040
1
2
3
4
CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2 Alternative scenarios for the interest rate.
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2002 2003 2004 20053
4
5
6
7
8
9
Alternative B
Baseline
Alternative A
Chart 3 Inflation with different scenarios for the interest rate. Actual and projected. 12-month rise. Per cent.
0
1
2
3
4
2002 2003 20040
1
2
3
4
CPI-ATE
Baseline
Alternative A
Alternative B
Source: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 4 GDP with alternative scenarios for the interest rate. Deviations from GDP in per cent.
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2002 2003 2004-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
Alternative A
Alternative B
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 5 Alternative scenarios for the import-weighted exchange rate (I-44).
80
90
100
110
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 200480
90
100
110
Forward rates
Stronger rate
Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44
Average last 3 months (89.0)
Chart 6 Inflation with alternative scenarios for the import-weighted exchange rate. Actual and projected. 12-month rise in per cent.
0
1
2
3
4
2001 2002 2003 20040
1
2
3
4
Forward rates
Stronger rate
CPI-ATE
Average last 3 months
Source: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030
2
4
6
8
10
12
Source: Norges Bank
Sight deposit rate
3-month money market rate
3-month money market rate and sight deposit rate. Monthly figures. Jan. 1995 – Feb. 2003.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1) Theoretical ECU rate up to and including Dec 98
Source: Norges Bank
Euro area1)
US
Japan
3-month rates in the US, Euro area and Japan. Per cent. Monthly figures. Jan. 1995 – Feb. 2003.
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200385
90
95
100
105
110
115
Source: Norges Bank
Import weighted exchange rate, I-44
(1995=100)
Trade-weighted exchange rate index (1990=100)
Trade-weighted exchange rate index and import-weighted exchange rate I-44. Monthly figures. Jan. 1995 – Feb. 2003.
0
5
10
15
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030
5
10
15
Source: Norges Bank
Credit to households
C2
The credit indicator (C2), credit to households and total credit to the non-financial private sector and municipalities, mainland Norway (C3). 12-month growth. Per cent. Jan. 1995 – Jan. 2003.
C3 Mainland Norway
Source: Norges Bank
Technical assumption for the exchange rate in the baseline scenario.
84
88
92
96
100
104
108
2001 2002 2003 200484
88
92
96
100
104
108
IR 1/03: 94.8
IR 1/03: 88.3
Trade-weighted exchange rate index (1990=100)
Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44 (1995=100)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 20050
2
4
6
8
10
Source: Norges Bank
Sight deposit rate
3-month money market rate
IR 1/03: 5.5
Technical assumption for the sight deposit rate in the baseline scenario.