Chart Discussion: Fri 15-Apr-2016Chart Discussion: Fri 15-Apr-2016 2 Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April...
Transcript of Chart Discussion: Fri 15-Apr-2016Chart Discussion: Fri 15-Apr-2016 2 Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April...
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Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)
Chart Discussion: Fri 15-Apr-2016
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Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)
Firstly - A Diversion:1912 Article on Climate Change
Rob Vertessy (Director of Meteorology, Australia), yesterday tweeted a link to this 1912 article on the greenhouse effect:
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Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)
Some Consequences:A Century Later
Impact of climate change on Indigenous communities By Catherine Marciniak, Thursday April 14, 2016 - 16:42 EST
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/
impact-of-climate-change-on-indigenous-communities/488986
The communities of the Torres Strait Islands are among the most vulnerable to
the impacts climate change according to the United Nations. –ABC
Getano Bann, Torres Strait Islander:
“ … Your whole sense of spirituality, your whole sense of who you are is
connected there. Now imagine that island is sinking under the water and there is
nothing you can do about it. Where is your sense of identity? Where is your
connect to country? What have you become now?”
Source:
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MSL Analysis/Sat Image: Thu-14-Apr-2016
http://www.bom.gov.au
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.gif
Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)
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MSL Analysis/Sat Image: Fri-15-Apr-2016
Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)
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ECMWFUS GFS
ACCESS
Review of Model ForecastsMSL Pressure: Fri 15-Apr-2016 (+192 HR)
Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)
Trend in Accuracy of Melbourne Forecasts12-Month ‘Running’ Accumulated % Variance Explained
To Apr-2016
Refer also to: QJRMS Stern & Davidson (2015)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2559/abstract
Based upon a presentation to the 2016 AMOS National Conference
Maximum Temperature: A steady increase in accuracy
over the past 50+ years (at Day 1 from 50% to 90%; for
Days 2-4 from 35% to 75%; and, for Days 5-7 from 20% to
50%).
Day1-7: Based on BoM predictions.
Beyond Day-7: Based on GFS Model predictions.
Rainfall Amount: Accuracy peaked during the very wet
summer of 2010-2011 when some extreme events were
very well predicted.
Day1-7: Based on BoM predictions.
Beyond Day-7: Based on GFS Model predictions.
BoM predictions of ‘0 mm’, when made with a PoP of at
least 50%, result from ‘rounding off’ and are accordingly
‘adjusted’ : to 0.2 mm, when with a PoP of 50%, to 0.4mm,
when with a PoP of greater than 50%.
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Seasonal Outlook
Part One
Chart Discussion: Fri 15-Apr-2016
Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)
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Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesEl Niño declining; 50 per cent likelihood of La Niña for later in 2016
Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)
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Verification (1989 to 2015) of the accuracy of the BoM’s
Seasonal Climate Outlooks [Rainfall]
QLD
NSW
VIC
NT
SA
WA
TAS
ALL STATES
Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)
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Seasonal Outlook Apr ‘16 - Jun ‘16
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Melbourne Monthly Outlook - Next 30 Days
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Last Week
Part Two
Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)
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MSL Analyses : Sat-09-Apr to Thu-14-Apr
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Southern Hemisphere: Thu-14-Apr-2016
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Next Week
Part Three
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Jet Streams: Fri 15-Apr-2016
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MSL Pressure: Fri 15-Apr-2016
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Jet Streams: Sat 16-Apr-2016
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MSL Pressure: Sat 16-Apr-2016
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Jet Streams: Sun 17-Apr-2016
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MSL Pressure: Sun 17-Apr-2016
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Jet Streams: Mon 18-Apr-2016
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MSL Pressure: Mon 18-Apr-2016
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Jet Streams: Tue 19-Apr-2016
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MSL Pressure: Tue 19-Apr-2016
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Jet Streams: Wed 20-Apr-2016
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MSL Pressure: Wed 20-Apr-2016
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MSL Pressure: Thu 21-Apr-2016
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MSL Pressure: Fri 22-Apr-2016
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ECMWF
+180HR
US GFS
+180HR
ACCESS
+192 HR
Model ForecastsMSL Pressure: Fri 22-Apr-2016
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MSL Pressure: Sat 23-Apr-2016
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MSL Pressure: Sun 24-Apr-2016
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Chart Discussion: Fri 15-Apr-2016
Thank You
http://www.weather-climate.com/ChartDiscussion15Apr2016.pdf
Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)