Chart Book and Financial Market Update (2/3/14)
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Transcript of Chart Book and Financial Market Update (2/3/14)
Weekly Chart BookFebruary 3, 2014
Global Clients…Global Portfolios
disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg.
Financial Conditions
4
Developed Markets
5
Emerging Markets
6
US Financial Conditions vs. 52 weeks & 2000-2007 Period
7
1 Year Default Probability – Developed Markets
8
1 Year Default Probability – Emerging Markets
9
Developed Market – CDS
10
Emerging Market – CDS
11
Global Banks – CDS
12
The VIX Index (S&P 500 Implied Volatility)
13
Global Financial Stress Index
14
Citi Macro Risk Index
15
Margin Debt & S&P 500
Fixed Income & Credit
17
US Yield Curve (Current vs. 1 Month & 12 Months Ago)
18
UST Curve vs. US Investment Grade Curve
19
U.S. Treasury 30 Year Yield
20
U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield
21
U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield – Forecast
22
Fed’s 5 Year Forward Breakeven (Inflation Expectations)
23
Investment Grade Bond Prices
24
Investment Grade Credit Spread (BBB – 10 Yr. UST Yield)
25
High Yield Bond Prices
26
High Yield Credit Spreads (HY – 10 Yr. UST Yield)
27
Emerging Market Debt (USD Denominated)
28
Emerging Market Bond Spreads
Global Equities
30
World Equity Indices
31
Earnings Scorecard
32
MSCI All Country World Index
33
ACWI Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)
34
S&P 500 Index
35
S&P 500 Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)
36
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index
37
MSCI EAFE Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)
38
MSCI Emerging Markets Index
39
MSCI EM Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)
40
Equity Risk Premiums by Country
The Economy
42
Last week’s Economic Calendar
43
Next week’s Economic Calendar
44
Economic Surprise Monitor (Deviations from Expectations)
Currencies & Commodities
46
World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (6 Month Spot Returns)
47
World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (Spot Forecast: Q1 2014)
48
Developed Market Currency Implied Volatility
49
Emerging Market Currency Implied Volatility
50
Developed Mrkt. Currency Implied Volatility – Time Series
51
Emerging Mrkt. Currency Implied Volatility – Time Series
52
US Dollar Index
53
Euro €
54
Japanese Yen ¥
55
Mexican Peso
56
Turkish Lira
57
Russian Ruble
58
Indian Rupee
59
Global Commodity Prices
60
Continuous Commodity Index – 5 Years
61
Gold Prices – 5 Years
62
Crude Oil Prices – 5 Years
63
Copper Prices – 5 Years