Chart 1 Employee Income - Bank of Japan · Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr.-0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 Total cash...
Transcript of Chart 1 Employee Income - Bank of Japan · Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr.-0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 Total cash...
ChartsS h t M ti ith B i L d i OitSpeech at a Meeting with Business Leaders in Oita
Chart 1: Employee Income
Chart 2: Consumer Prices
Chart 3: Real GDP
Chart 4: "Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices" (April 2014)Chart 4: Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2014)
Chart 5: Consumer Prices by Item
Chart 6: Global Economic Outlook
Chart 7: U.S. Economy
Chart 8: Euro Area Economy
Chart 9: Chinese Economyy
Chart 10: Inflation Rates in Major Economies
Chart 11: Medium- to Long-Term Inflation Expectations in Major Economies
Ch 12 L b P d i iChart 12: Labor Productivity
Chart 13: Various Consumer Price Indices
Chart 14: Factors Affecting Long-Term Interest Ratesg g
Chart 15: Economic Activity in Oita PrefectureNote: Charts are based on data released on or prior to June 3, 2014 (noon Japan Standard Time).
Employee IncomeChart 1
/ % h
Employee Income
(1) Number of Employees (2) Nominal Wages* (3) Employee Income/ % h
3y/y % chg.
1
2y/y % chg. y/y % chg.
2013 2014
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr.
-0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9Total cashearnings (W)
1
2
-1
0Scheduledcashearnings
-0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2
Non-
earnings (W)
0-3
-2
Scheduled cash i
Nonscheduledcashearnings
-1.9 0.6 3.0 5.5 5.0 5.1
Special cashearnings 9.6 2.4 0.3 1.9 0.8 20.5
-1Part-time employees
Full-time employees
-4
3 earnings
Non-scheduled cash earnings
Special cash earnings (bonuses, etc.)
earnings
0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3
Number ofregularemployees (L)
-2
0 8 0 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4
Number of regular employees
CY-6
-5
0 8 0 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 14
( , )
Total cash earnings
CY
-0.0 0.9 0.5 1.5 1.3 2.2Employeeincome(W × L)
2
Note: Q1 = March-May, Q2 = June-August, Q3 = September-November, Q4 = December-February.Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.
Consumer PricesChart 2
Consumer Prices
(2) Ku-Area of Tokyo(1) Japan
2.0
All items less fresh food
y/y % chg.2.0
All items less fresh food
y/y % chg.
1.0
1.5
All items less food and energy
1.0
1.5
All items less food and energy
0 5
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
1 5
-1.0
-0.5
1 5
-1.0
-0.5
-2.0
-1.5
11 12 13 14CY-2.0
-1.5
11 12 13 14CY
Note: Figures for April 2014 and onward are estimated after adjusting for the direct effects of the consumption tax hike.Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
3
Real GDP
Chart 3
Real GDP
Developments in Real GDPs.a., ann., q/q % chg.
2014Jan.-Mar.
1st est.
R l GDP G th R t 4 9 3 5 1 3 0 3 5 9
2013
Jan.-Mar. Apr.-June July-Sep. Oct.-Dec.
Real GDP Growth Rate 4.9 3.5 1.3 0.3 5.9
Domestic Demand (3.2) (2.9) (3.3) (2.6) (6.9)
Private Demand (1.7) (1.2) (1.8) (2.0) (7.3)
Private Consumption (2.6) (1.8) (0.5) (0.9) (5.1)
Private Non-Resi. Investment (- 1.1) (0.5) (0.4) (0.8) (2.7)
Private Residential Investment (0.2) (0.1) (0.4) (0.5) (0.4)
s to
Ch
ange
s
Change in Private Inventories (0.1) (- 1.2) (0.5) (- 0.2) (- 0.8)
Public Demand (1.4) (1.8) (1.5) (0.5) (- 0.4)
Public Investment (0.8) (1.2) (1.3) (0.2) (- 0.5)
Con
trib
uti
ons
External Demand (1.7) (0.5) (- 2.0) (- 2.2) (- 1.1)
Exports (2.4) (1.7) (- 0.4) (0.3) (3.9)
Imports (- 0.7) (- 1.2) (- 1.6) (- 2.5) (- 5.0)
Source: Cabinet Office.
4
"Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices" Chart 4
(April 2014)Forecasts of the Majority of Policy Board Members
y/y % chg.
Excluding the effects of theconsumption tax hikes
Real GDPCPI (all items less
fresh food)
+2.2 to +2.3
[+2.2]
+2.5 to +2.9 +0.7 to +0.9
[+2 7] [+0 7]
+0.8
Forecasts made in
January 2014
Fiscal 2013
[+2.7] [+0.7]
+0.8 to +1.3 +3.0 to +3.5 +1.0 to +1.5
[+1.1] [+3.3] [+1.3]
+0.9 to +1.5 +2.9 to +3.6 +0.9 to +1.6Forecasts made in
January 2014
Fiscal 2014
0.9 to 1.5 2.9 to 3.6 0.9 to 1.6
[+1.4] [+3.3] [+1.3]
+1.2 to +1.5 +1.9 to +2.8 +1.2 to +2.1
[+1.5] [+2.6] [+1.9]
Forecasts made in January 2014
Fiscal 2015
+1.2 to +1.8 +1.7 to +2.9 +1.0 to +2.2
[+1.5] [+2.6] [+1.9]
+1.0 to +1.5 +2.0 to +3.0 +1.3 to +2.3Fiscal 2016
Forecasts made in January 2014
[+1.3] [+2.8] [+2.1]Fiscal 2016
Note: Figures in brackets indicate the median of the Policy Board members' forecasts (point estimates).Source: Bank of Japan. 5
Consumer Prices by ItemChart 5
Consumer Prices by Item
(1) Energy (2) Digital Appliances (3) Meals Outside the Home
0 8
1.0
Meals outside the home
y/y % chg.
5.0
10.0
Digital appliances
y/y % chg.
9.0
10.0
Energy
y/y % chg.
0.6
0.8
-5.0
0.0
6 0
7.0
8.0
0.4
-15.0
-10.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
0.0
0.2
30 0
-25.0
-20.0
2.0
3.0
-0.2
12 13 14CY
-35.0
-30.0
12 13 14CY
0.0
1.0
12 13 14CY
Notes: 1. Figures for April 2014 and onward are estimated after adjusting for the direct effects of the consumption tax hike.2. Prices of digital appliances refer to those of the following CPI items: TV sets, mobile audio players, electronic dictionaries, video
recorders, personal computers (desktop type), personal computers (note type), PC printers, digital cameras, and video cameras.Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. 6
Global Economic Outlook
Chart 6
Global Economic Outlook
IMF Projections (as of April 2014)
2014 2015projection projection
3.6 3.9( 0 1) ( 0 1)
CY
World 3.2 3.0
real GDP growh rate, y/y % chg.
2012 2013
(-0.1) (-0.1)2.2 2.3
(0.0) (0.0)2.8 3.0
(0.0) (0.0)1 2 1 5
Advanced economies 1.4 1.3
United States 2.8 1.9
1.2 1.5(0.1) (0.1)1.4 1.0
(-0.3) (0.0)4.9 5.3Emerging market and developing
5 0 4 7
Euro area -0.7 -0.5
Japan 1.4 1.5
(-0.2) (-0.1)6.7 6.8
(0.0) (0.0)7.5 7.3
(0.0) (0.0)China 7.7 7.7
economies 5.0 4.7
Developing Asia 6.7 6.5
( ) ( )4.9 5.4
(-0.2) (-0.2)2.5 3.0
(-0.4) (-0.3)Latin America and the Caribbean 3.1 2.7
ASEAN 6.2 5.2
Notes: 1. Figures are calculated using GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP) shares of the world total from the International Monetary Fund.
2. Figures in parentheses are the difference from the January 2014 World Economic Outlook .Source: International Monetary Fund.
7
U S Economy
Chart 7
U.S. Economy
(2) Households' Balance Sheet(1) Fiscal Balance*
83tril. U.S. dollar
40001600
CBO Projections
U.S. bil. dollar U.S. bil. dollar15
increase and decrease from the peak (2007/Q3), tril. U.S. dollar
68
73
78 Net assets of U.S. households
3000
3500
800
1200
CBO Projections
0
5
10
58
63
68
2500
3000
0
400
-10
-5
0
43
48
53
1500
2000
1200
-800
-400
Fiscal balance
Expenditure (right scale) 25
-20
-15
Other assets and liabilities (right scale)Stocks including pension funds (right scale)Real estate (right scale)
38
43
02 04 06 08 10 12CY
1000-1600
-1200
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
p ( g )
Revenue (right scale)
FY
-30
-25
07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Real estate (right scale)Net assets (right scale)
Note: Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Projections are as of April 2014. Accounting year basis (from October of previous year to September of current year).
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Haver Analytics. 8
Euro Area Economy
Chart 8
Euro Area Economy(1) Business Confidence (2) Consumer Confidence
115
120
65
70 DI, % points CY 2005=100
10
15
10
15 DI, % points
105
110
115
55
60
65
10
-5
0
5
10
-5
0
5
95
100
45
50
-25
-20
-15
-10
-25
-20
-15
-10
85
90
35
40
Manufacturing PMI
Services PMI-40
-35
-30
-40
-35
-30 Euro area
Germany
France
80 30
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Services PMI
IFO business climate index (right scale)
CY-50
-45
-50
-45
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
France
Spain
CY
Sources: Markit (© and database right Markit Economics Ltd 2014. All rights reserved.); Thomson Reuters Datastream.
9
Chinese Economy
Chart 9
Chinese Economy
(2) GDP and Employment*(1) Long-Term Economic Outlook ("China
1.15job openings-to-applicants ratio, times
2030")
4.013
O tlook
ann., y/y chg. ann., y/y chg.
1.05
1.10
2014/Q12.5
3.0
3.5
10
11
12 OutlookGDP: China 2030Population: United Nations
0.95
1.00
2014/Q1
1.5
2.0
8
9
0 85
0.90
2005/Q1-2009/Q40.5
1.0
6
7
Real GDP growth rate (left scale)
0.80
0.85
5 7 9 11 13 15
2010/Q1-2014/Q1
realGDP growth rate y/y % chg
-0.5
0.0
4
5
1981-85 91-95 2001-05 11-15 21-25
Working age population (right scale)
CY
real GDP growth rate, y/y % chg.
10
Note: Solid line is the regression line of 2005/Q1-2009/Q4 data.Sources: The World Bank; Development Research Center of the State Council, People's Republic of China; United Nations; CEIC Data.
Inflation Rates in Major Economies
Chart 10
Inflation Rates in Major Economies
CPI Inflation Rates in Japan, the United States, and the Euro Area
2 5
3.0
3.5 Japan
United States
Euro area
y/y % chg.
1.5
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
-2.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14CY
Notes: 1. Figures for the United States include all items excluding food and energy. Figures for the euro area includeall items excluding energy and unprocessed food Figures for Japan include all items less food and energyall items excluding energy and unprocessed food. Figures for Japan include all items less food and energy
(alcoholic beverages are excluded from food).2. Figures for Japan for April 2014 and onward are estimated after adjusting for the direct effects of the
consumption tax hike. Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Eurostat; Bloomberg. 11
Medium- to Long-Term Inflation Expectations in Chart 11
Major EconomiesCPI Projections for 6-10 Years Ahead <Consensus Forecasts>
4.5
5.0
Japan
United States
y/y % chg.
3 0
3.5
4.0 Euro area
2.0
2.5
3.0
1.0
1.5
0.0
0.5
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14CY
Note: Survey is conducted every April and October.Source: Consensus Economics Inc.
12
Labor ProductivityChart 12
Labor Productivity
Labor Productivity of Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing
8.5
9.0mil. yen
7.5
8.0
6.5
7.0
All industries
5 5
6.0
All industries
Manufacuturing
Nonmanufacturing
5.0
5.5
90 95 00 05 10 12FY
Notes: 1. Labor productivity = (value added / number of employees ) × 1002. All industries and nonmanufacturing exclude Finance and Insurance.
Source: Ministry of Finance.13
Various Consumer Price IndicesChart 13
y/y % chg.
Various Consumer Price IndicesVarious CPI Inflation Rates in Japan
2.0
2.5
3.0 All items
All items less fresh food
All items less food and energy
All items less imputed rent
0.5
1.0
1.5 Laspeyres chain index, all items less fresh food
10 percent trimmed mean, all items
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-3.0
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14CYNotes: 1. Figures for April 2014 and onward are estimated after adjusting for the direct effects of the consumption tax hike.
2. Figures for the 10 percent trimmed mean are weighted averages of items; these items are obtained by rearrangingyear-on-year rates of price change in ascending order and then excluding items in both the upper and lower
10 il b i h10 percent tails by weight.3. Figures for the Laspeyres chain index for 2006 are the year-on-year rates for the fixed-base method.
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
14
Factors Affecting Long-Term Interest Rates
Chart 14
Factors Affecting Long-Term Interest Rates
JGB purchasesJGB purchases by the Bank
(Downward factors)
(Nominal)E pected short term +
( )long-term
interest rates
= Expected short-terminterest rates
Premiums+
(Upward factors)Improvement in the outlook for economic activity and prices
1. A rise in U.S. interest rates
2. An increase in interest rate volatilityy
15
Economic Activity in Oita PrefectureChart 15
Economic Activity in Oita Prefecture(1) Industrial Production (2) Active Job Openings-to-
Applicants Ratio(3) Business Fixed Investment
(Tankan)*
115
120
Oita Prefecture
Japan
CY 2010=100
1.08
1.00
1.10
Oita Prefecture
Japan
s.a.; times
265
240
260
280FY 2005=100
All industries
Manufacturing
105
110
JapanMETIprojection
0.88
0.80
0.90
Japan
164
177
200
180
200
220Nonmanufacturing
95
100
0 60
0.70
164
120
140
160
85
90
0.50
0.60
6876
66
76
60
80
100
120
75
80
08 09 10 11 12 13 14CY
0.30
0.40
08 09 10 11 12 13 14CY
4855
4245
20
40
60
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14FY
16
Note: Figures from fiscal 2009 onward are based on the new lease accounting standard (figures up to fiscal 2008 are based on the previous standard). Sources: Statistics and Research Division, Oita Prefectural Government; Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry (METI); Ministry of Health, Labour
and Welfare; Oita Labour Bureau; Bank of Japan.