Charleston SC Market Update - 2009
description
Transcript of Charleston SC Market Update - 2009
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Charleston
Market Conditions
October 2009
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Market Update2009
www.Aptindex.com
(704)369-2345
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Employment…
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2002
2003
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2007
Jo
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Building Permits…
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
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10,000
12,000
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Boom market…
Housing Bubble (2003-2007) created the boom market
Excess housing supply Renters become ownersExcess for-sale market becomes ‘Shadow Market’
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Renters to Owners…
Housing BubbleRenters become Owners…Reducing demand for apartments
Apartment Demand
-500
-250
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1,750
2,000
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Un
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Ab
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Actual Demand
Forecast Demand
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Boom to Bust…
Housing Bubble Bursts/ Recession (2008-2010?)Home prices fall…Excess for-sale housing supplyShadow rental market expandsEconomy in a recession…Job losses mount
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Building Permits…
0
2,000
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10,000
12,000
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YT
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Apartment Permits…
0
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600
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800
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of
Un
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rte
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Feb-05 Aug-05
Feb-06 Aug-06
Feb-07 Aug-07
Feb-08 Aug-08
Feb-09 Aug-09
Overall - Apartment Starts
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Employment…
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
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2009
2010
Jo
b G
row
th R
ate
??
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Supply & Demand…
Supply vs. Demand
-500
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Supply Growth - 2 Yr. Moving Avg.
Demand - 2 Yr. Moving Avg.
Forecast
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Occupancy & Rents…
Occupancy vs. Rent Growth
84.0%
85.0%
86.0%
87.0%
88.0%
89.0%
90.0%
91.0%
92.0%
93.0%
94.0%
95.0%
96.0%
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-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Re
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Rent Growth - 2 Yr. Moving Avg.
Occupancy - 2 Yr. Moving Avg. Forecast
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Development…
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Vacancy Rates…
Overall vacancy rate for the area is 11.1% down from 15.3%
Median vacancy rate among all communities is only 8.3%
Stabilized communities less than 30 years in age, vacancy rate is 8.5%
Class B properties generally outperforming class A and C
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Submarkets…
Goose creek area has a vacancy rate of 13.5%
Higher vacancy among newer communities
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Submarkets…
Mt. Pleasant’s overall vacancy rate is 10.9%
Excluding lease up and those more than 30 years in age, occupancy is 96%
Mt. Pleasant accounts nearly half of all units in the metro area that rent for over $1,000
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Submarkets…
Nearly half of all units in North Charleston are more than 30 years old
12.1% vacancy
Lowest rents among the submarkets
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Submarkets…
Summerville is the largest submarket, accounts for one-quarter of the entire supply
The majority of units in Summerville are less than 5 years old.
Vacancy rate is 11.1%
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Submarkets…
West Ashley accounts for one-quarter of supply
The majority of communities in are more than 30 years old
Highest occupancy rate in region at 90.6%
Rents fell -5.4% in the last year
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Regional Comparison…
Occupancy Rates
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
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Regional Comparison…
Rent Growth
-8.0%
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
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Real Data
Charles Dalton(704)369-2345
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Market Drivers…
Economy
Job Growth
Housing Market
Mortgage Rates
Demographics
New Development
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Mortgage Rates…
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
1983
1985
1987
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1991
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1999
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2009
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Home Prices…
$120,000
$130,000
$140,000
$150,000
$160,000
$170,000
$180,000
$190,000
$200,000
$210,000
$220,000
$230,0002
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