CHAPTER V DEMAND VERSUS SUPPLY OF FOOD GRAINS IN...

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CHAPTER–V

DEMAND VERSUS SUPPLY OF FOOD GRAINS IN

INDIA: FUTURE SCENARIO

To project the future food security scenario of India is the objective of this

chapter for which future demand and supply of food grains have been estimated on

the basis of past performance. The estimation of plausible future food scenario is

fraught with well known uncertainties and problems, but the trends and projections of

demand and supply of various important food items help policy makers to take

informed policy decisions relating to food security and food self sufficiency situation

of the country which justify the need of the study.

5.1: Per Capita availability of Food Grains:

In the pre reform period the growth of agriculture was not so impressive. In

this time period the population and income grow at the fast rate. But the food

production was not able to keep pace with it and it is the main reason of declining net

per capita availability of food grains. Figure: 5.1 shows the trends in per capita food

consumption since 1991: This shows a continuous declining trend. The annual per

capita net availability of food grains has been falling steadily during reform period. If

we consider the five year moving average from 1991 to 2012(Figure: 5.2) the figures

decline every five year without exception from 186.2 kg/per year in 1991 to 164.2 kg/

per year in 2012. The cereal per capita availability declined from 171 kg/ per annum

in 1991 to 149.1 kg/ per annum in 2012. In the decade of 2001 to 2011 the population

of India has increased 17.64 per cent. This decade also witnessed the good production

growth in cereals as compare to 1991-92 to 2000-01, but still the per capita

consumption of all the food grains is declining. It is clear from above analysis that the

main food grain demand pusher (population and per capita income), are growing

faster than domestic production of food grains. The per capita cereals has declined by

12.8 percent (from 171 kg to 149.1 kg) in time period from 1991-92 to 2011-12 and

by 3.6 percent (from 154.3 kg to 149.1 kg) in 2000-01 to 2011-12. The superior

cereals rice and wheat, which are the main constituent of countries food security, their

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per capita availability also declined over the period. The per capita availability of rice

declined by 14 percent (from 80.9 kg to 69.4 kg) since 1991 and the wheat net per

capita availability declined by 3.8 percent (from 60 kg to 57.7kg) during this period.

The net per capita availability of pulses shows no change form 1991-92 to 2011-2. In

the decades of nineties the production of pulses decline so the per capita availability

10.6 kg per year in 2003 from 15.2 kg in 1991. After 2007 it showed increasing trend

because of special effort of government under NFSM which raised the production of

pulses in the country. In 2012 the pulses net availability again increased to the level of

1991 i.e. 15.2. The net availability of food grains during the period of 1991 to 2012

decline by 11 percent and by 1 percent from 2001 to 2012. This negative trend in per

capita production and availability of food grains had appeared in early 1991 and

continues since then. So it shows that country is not able to keep pace with demand.

Figure: 5.1 Trends in annual per capita consumption of food (in kgs)

Source: Directorate of Economic and Statistics, Department of Agricultural and Cooperation.

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Figure: 5.2 Five year moving average of annual per capita consumption of food

(in kgs)

Source: Directorate of Economic and Statistics, Department of Agricultural and Cooperation.

In consequences of rising demand of food grains due to the factor like increase

in population, rise in per capita income create a pressure of rising price in economy.

After 2006-07 food price increase drastically (Table: 4.1). The rising pressure of

world food demand and supply shocks also contributed in rise in prices of food grains.

Table: 4.1 show the rate of inflation of Whole-sale Price Index from 2006-07 to 2012-

13. Most of the time food grain inflation remains above the acceptable level of 4

percent. The year 2006-07, 2009-10 and 2012-13 faced the prominent rise in prices.

Pulses which are the main source of protein of low income household face major burn

of rising prices. In 2006-07 the pulses witnessed the 31.6 percent of growth in prices

and 19.6 percent in 2012-13. The household with low income are more vulnerable to

these rising prices and affect their food security by affecting their access to food

grains. In India food expenditure constitute 38.6 percent of total household

expenditure, so the rising price because of supply bottlenecks has serious impact upon

country food security.

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Table: 5.1 Growth rate of (Inflation) WPI of food grains (Base: 2004-05=100)

Year

(weight)

Food grain

(4.09)

Cereals

(3.37)

Rice

(1.79)

Wheat

(1.12)

Pulses

(0.72)

2006-07 14.1 10.1 4.6 19.1 31.6

2007-08 6.9 9.5 11.3 7.3 -2.8

2008-09 11 11.9 14.8 9.9 7.5

2009-10 14.5 12.6 12.3 12.8 22.4

2010-11 4.9 5.3 5.9 3 3.2

2011-12 3.6 3.9 3.1 -1.8 2.5

2012-13 14.6 13.4 12.7 15.6 19.6

Source: Agriculture Statistics at Glance, Ministry of Agriculture

5.2: Plausible Future Scenario of Food Security:

In country like India it was always a big challenge to feed the growing

population. With the robust economic growth, rising population, where agriculture

still a gamble of monsoon; policy makers always face tough question like: what will

be the food demand in future? Will India be able to feed its growing population or it

will it have to depend on large amount of imports? So study projecting of food

demand and supply is always like a light house that will guide their path in making

appropriate policies. There is number of studies which projects future food grain

demand and supply. Some of the well known studies of demand and supply projection

of food grains are showed in Table: 5.2 and 5.3. The demand and supply projections

are different for every study because of different assumptions made about the

parameters on which demand and supply depends. The estimates for cereal demands

range from 237.3 million tons (Rosegrant et.al., 1995)1 to 374.7 million tons (Bhalla,

2001) 2

in 2020. It can be assumed from those studies the demand that on an average

the food grain demand will range around 250-260 million tons. The demand for food

grains range from 281 million tons to 296 million tons. On the other hand supply

projection for the country range from 259.8 to 289.6 million tons for cereals and 296

to 24 million tons for food grains. These studies show India hardly meets its food

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demand even in some cases supply can fall shorts of total food demand. This can be a

major implication for the food security of country. During the period from 1991 to

2007 agriculture growth shows a declining trend in India. Most of these studies

conducted on the basis of this time period. In 11th

FYP plan agriculture get more

coverage and there were improvement agriculture production trends. It can be hoped

there will be improvement in future food grain supply.

Table: 5.2 Demand Projection (million tons)

Study Year Rice Wheat Total

cereals

Pulses Food

grain

Rosegrant et. Al. (1995)

2020 -- -- 237.3 -- --

Kumar (1998)3

2020 121.9 100.3 265.7 30.9 296.6

Bhalla (2001)

2020 -- -- 374.7 -- --

Chand (2007)4

2020 -- -- 261.5 19.1 280.6

Mittal (2008)5

2021 96.9 66.8 242.8 38.7 281.5

2026 102.2 69.1 273.5 51.5 324.5

Ganesh et. al. (2012)6

2020 101.4 82.6 -- 13.1 --

2025 104.7 91.5 -- 14.5 --

Table: 5.3 Supply Projection (million tons)

Study Year Rice Wheat Total

cereals

Pulses Food

grain

Kumar (1998) 2020 130.40 127.3 309 -- --

Mittal (2000)

2020 149.3 128.5 -- -- --

Kumar & Mittal (2003)7

2020 127 111.5 274. 15.2 289.2

Mittal (2008) 2021 105.8 91.6 242.2 17.6 259.8

2026 111.2 97.9 260.2 18.4 278.6

Ganesh et. al. (2012) 2020 135.9 96.3 -- -- --

2025 153.1 102 -- -- --

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5.3 Demand Forecast:

Forecasting of food grains demands for India has been done on the basis of

two techniques; Normative Approach and Absorption Approach. Besides direct

demand, there is also an important component of total demand which includes seed,

feed, industrial uses and wastage, and has been termed as „indirect demand‟.

Conventionally, the indirect demand is assumed to be 12.5 per cent of the total food

grain production; an assumption being used since 1950s for all official estimates.

5.3.1 Normative Approach:

The normative approach is based on the requirement of food and nutrient

contents of balanced diet for moderately active person or for sedentary life style. The

National Institute of Nutrition, Hyderabad has prescribed the normative requirement

per capita per day for different life styles. As per NIN (ICMR2010) the recommended

dietary allowance for Indian with moderate and sedentary life style are as following

for food grains:

Table: 5.4 Recommended Dietary Allowance for Indian of Different Life Styles

(kgs/year/per capita)

Food Items Annual per capita

Requirements for

Moderate Life Style

Annual per capita

Requirements for

Sedentary Life Style

Cereals 146 kg 122kg

Pulses 29.2 kg 25 kg

Edible Oils 10.5 kg 9 kg

Source:

Multiplying the per capita consumption by the projected population of each of the

year gives the total requirement for human consumption.

Total Domestic Demand = (Annual per capita Consumption * Population) +

SFW. This approach also assume short term static Behaviour in Consumption, i.e.

increase in income level has no effect on consumption.

The demand projection based on the recommended diet for sedentary life style

is shown in Table: 5.5 after adjusting it with SFW ratio it gives the minimum demand

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of food grains for the country in coming decade. The population projection was used

given by FAOSTAT based on current census. According to this approach the total

demand for cereals will be 185.74 million tons in 2020-21 and 165.10 million only for

food purposes. This demand increases to with increase in population to 194.72 million

tons in 2025-26 and 202.63 million tons in 2030-31. Pulses which are very important

for nutrition security of Indian population, where more than half people are vegetarian

reached to 38 million tons in 2020-21, 39.90 million tons in 2025-26 and 41.52

million tons in 20230-31. That is the minimum demand that the country should meet

to ensure nutrition security for its population. The total for food will be 223.80 million

tons in 2020-21, 234.62 million tons in 2025-26 and 244.15 million tons in 2030-31.

In which net food grain demand constitutes 198.93 million tons, 208.55 million tons

and 217.02 million tons respectively for 2020-21, 2025-26 and 2030-31.

Table: 5.5 Demand Projection with Sedentary Life Styles:

(in million tons)

Year Cereals Pulses Food Grain

2015-16 176.00 36.06 212.07

2020-21 185.74 38.06 223.80

2025-26 194.72 39.90 234.62

2030-31 202.63 41.52 244.15

Source: Based on table no. 5.4, Data for Population taken from FAOSTAT.

Table: 5.6 shows the total food grain demand for moderate life style. The total

food grain demand for moderate life style is greater than the food demand under

sedentary life style a food requirement for moderate life style is higher compare to

sedentary life style. The total cereal demand in 2020-21 will be 222.28 million tons

and 197.5 million tons net cereal demand. The net cereals demand increase to 207.13

million tons in 2025-26 and total cereal demand will be 233.02 million tons. In 2030-

31 the total cereal demand increases to242.50 million ton. The pulses demand will be

44.45 million in 2020-21which increase to 48.50 million tons in 2030-31. The total

food grains demand according to recommended diet will be 266.73 million tons in

2020-21 and 237.09 million tons consist of net food grain demand. Food grains

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demand will increase to 279.63 million tons in 2025-26. In 2030-31 the total food

grain demand will be 290.99 million tons, and net food demand will be 258.66 million

tons according to normative approach.

Table: 5.6 Demand Projection with Moderate Life Style:

(in million tons)

Year Cereals Pulses Food Grain

2015-16 210.63 42.12 252.75

2020-21 222.28 44.45 266.73

2025-26 233.02 46.60 279.63

2030-31 242.50 48.50 290.99

Source: Based on table no. 5.4, Data for Population taken from FAOSTAT.

The Food and Agriculture Organisation recommend the 440 gm of food grain

per day for active and healthy life and ensure food security in India8. The FAO

dietary recommendation (160kg per year) falls within the range of dietary

recommendation given by NIN for sedentary lifestyle (147 kg per year) and moderate

lifestyle (175.2 kg per year). So, if we apply normative approach on FAO

recommendation to find food demand, it will provide more balance picture.

According to FAO norms the food demand will be 243.59 million tons in 2020-21.

With the growing population this will reached to 255.37 million tons in 2025-26 and

265.74 million tons in 230-31. This is the minimum food grain requirement for

country to ensure food security at national level.

5.3.2 Absorption Approach:

The second approach of estimating demand is absorption approach. The

biggest benefit of this approach is, there is no need to make any assumption seed,

feed, wastage and industrial use and there is no reliable estimates regarding SFW. The

absorption in economy includes human consumption, animal feed, seed, industrial

use, wastage and any change in private stocks with traders, farmers and household.

Actual demand absorption of a commodity in a particular year is estimated by

addition of production and net imports minus change in government stocks. Normally

the absorption has smooth behaviour, but many time it fluctuate due to change in

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especially related with the private sector stocks affects the total absorption in year9.

To estimate the future food demand the annual absorption since 1991-92 to 2010-11

annual absorption data had been taken. Over the years the absorption of major food

grains shows increasing trends. The total absorption of food grains was 173.4 million

tons in 1991-92 this increase to 232.9 million tons in 2010-11. Cereals absorption

increase to 161 million tons in 1991-92 and increase to 212.4 million tons. The

absorption of rice and wheat increases to 90.5 million and 82.5 million tons in 2011-

12 from 75.6 million tons and 59.4 million tons. Pulses absorption increases to 20.5

million tons in 2010-11 from 12.3 million tons.

Table: 5.7 Annual Absorption of Food Grains

(in million tons)

YEAR RICE Wheat Coarse

Grain

Cereals Pulses Food

Grains

1991-92 75.6 59.4 26 161 12.3 173.4

1992-93 70.5 50.1 36.6 157.2 13.2 170.4

1993-94 75.3 57.5 30.7 163.5 13.9 177.3

1994-95 77.7 63.9 29.8 171.4 14.5 186

1995-96 75.6 66.6 29 171.2 12.7 183.9

1996-97 81.2 71.5 34 186.7 14.8 201.6

1997-98 79.1 62.8 30.4 172.3 13.8 186

1998-99 82.6 67.1 31.3 181 15.4 196.4

1999-2000 83.9 72.4 30.5 186.8 13.5 220.3

2000-01 75.2 57.7 30.8 163.7 11.2 174.9

2001-02 91.9 68 33.5 193.4 15.4 208.8

2002-03 77.8 79 26 182.8 13 195.7

2003-04 85.3 73.1 36.4 194.8 16.5 211.3

2004-05 79 71.3 32.3 182.6 14.2 196.9

2005-06 86.6 74.9 33 194.5 14.6 209.1

2006-07 88.8 77.1 34.4 200.3 16.2 216.5

2007-08 90 68.4 37.4 195.8 17.4 213.2

2008-09 88.3 72.7 35.5 196.5 16.9 213.4

2009-10 82.3 80.3 31.1 193.7 18.1 211.7

2010-11 90.5 82.5 39.4 212.4 20.5 232.9

Source: Planning Commission Report of Working Group on Food Grains

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The absorption per year shows the increasing trend in table: 5.7. It can be

assumed in normal conditions if population is increasing the absorption per year will

also increase. There is some fluctuation in these trends; this is due to change in the

stock with government and private traders. The projection of future food grain

demands has been done different alternative scenario. First simple trend has been

extrapolated to find the future demand. But, to smoothen the fluctuation three year

and five year moving average has been calculated and corresponding growth rates has

been estimated. The food grain demand was projected on the basis of point to point

CAGR after taking different base year scenarios.

Table: 5.8 show the projection of total demand of rice in coming decade. If we

simply follow the absorption trend of rice consumption give in Table: 5.8 the rice

demand will be around 97.6 million tons in 2020-21 which increase to 105 million

tons in 2030-31. The demand for rice in 2030-31 ranges from 105 million tons to

108.5 million tons under alternative scenario. The projection using exponential trends

gives highest projection. If we calculate rice demand using three year moving

average; the compound annual growth rates of absorption comes 0.92 percent. Taking

the average of 2008-11 as base year, the estimates for rice demand comes 96.25

million tons for 2015-16, 100.76 million tons for 2025-26 and 105.48 million tons for

2030-31. If we take five year moving average of absorption of rice then the CAGR

was observed 1.1 percent and which gives the projection of demand 99.13 million

tons in 2015-16. The rice demand will be 104.19 million tons in 2025-26 and 109.51

million tons in 2030-31 using this scenario.

Table: 5.8 Rice Demand Projections

(million tons)

Year Trend Exponential

Trend

3 MA 5 MA

2015-16 93.23 93.89 91.95 94.32

2020-21 97.16 98.52 96.25 99.13

2025-26 101.08 103.39 100.76 104.19

2030-31 105.00 108.5 105.48 109.51

Source: calculated from Table: 5.7

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Table: 5.9 observed the future demand projection for wheat. The demand for

wheat in 2030-31 ranges 102.18 million tons to 112.34 million tons. Simple trend

analysis shows that wheat demand will be 90.87 in 2020-21, 96.52 million tons in

2025-26 and 102.18 million ton in 2030-31. Exponential trend slightly overestimated

the demand in comparison of other alternatives. This trend shows the wheat demand

will be 103.25 million tons in 2025-26 and 112.34 million tons in 2030-31. The

estimates of wheat demand calculated on the basis of three year moving average

shows the demand will be 107.31 million tons in 2030-31. The CAGR for three year

moving average of absorption comes 1.5 percent, with the base year consumption

78.5 it shows that it will increase to 99.61 in 2025-26. The estimates based on five

year moving average, with 1.4 percent CAGR, shows wheat consumption will be

96.51 million tons in 2025-26 and 103.46 million tons in 2030-31.

Table: 5.9 Wheat Demand Projections

(million tons)


Trend

3 MA 5 MA

2015-16 85.21 87.22 85.83 83.98

2020-21 90.87 94.90 92.46 90.03

2025-26 96.52 103.25 99.61 96.51

2030-31 102.18 112.34 107.31 103.46


With the improvement in economic condition the consumption of coarse grain

has been down but they are still play important role ensuring food security at local

level. In recent decade there is increase in demand for coarse cereals because of

increase in their industrial uses. The estimates show that the demand will be around

41 to 43 million tons for food grains in 2030-31. The projection based on three year

moving average with 0.84 percent annual growth rate will be 40.39 million tons in

2025-26 and 42.11 million tons in 2030-31. Five year moving average of absorption

with 0.89 annual growth rate estimate coarse grain demand 39.54 million tons in

2020-21, 41.34 million tons in 2025-26 and 43.21 million tons in 2030-31.

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Table: 5.10 Coarse Cereals Demand Projections

(million tons)


Trend

3 MA 5 MA

2015-16 36.87 36.98 37.15 37.83

2020-21 38.42 38.78 38.73 39.54

2025-26 39.96 40.67 40.39 41.34

2030-31 41.50 42.65 42.11 43.21


In 2030-31 the total demand for cereals ranges from 246.81 million ton to

261.81 million tons. According to simple trends basis the total cereal demand will be

226.41 million tons in 2020-21, 237.58 million tons 2025-26 and 248.7 million tons in

2030-31. Based on three year moving average with 1.2 percent of annual growth rate

the demand for cereals will reached to 229.03 million tons in 2020-21, 243.10 million

tons in 2025-26 and 258.04 million tons in 2030-31. The five year moving average

with 0.96 percent annual growth the demand will reach to 234.96 million tons in

2025-26 and 246.96 million tons in 2030-31.

Table: 5.11 Total Cereals Demand Projection

(million tons)


Trend

3 MA 5 MA

2015-16 215.33 217.91 215.76 213.55

2020-21 226.41 231.66 229.03 224.00

2025-26 237.58 246.27 243.10 234.96

2030-31 248.7 261.81 258.04 246.96


The pulses consumption will rise with the increase in per capita income. The

pulses demand will range from 21.71 to 24.22 million tons in 2025-26; this will reach

around 24 to 26 million tons in 2030-31. The exponential trend shows the demand for

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pulses will be 20.87 million tons in 2020-21, 22.82 million tons in 2025-26 and 24.94

million tons in 2030-31. The three year moving average taking average of 2008-09 to

2010-11 as base year with 1.7 growth rate the absorption of pulses will be 22.26

million tons in 2020-21, 24.22 million tons in 2025-26 and 26.35 million tons in

2030-31. With five year moving average, CAGR was observed 1.4 percent and

estimates for total pulses demand comes 22.83 million tons for 2025-26 and 24.56

million tons for 2030-31.

Table: 5.12 Pulses Demand Projection

(million tons)


Trend

3 MA 5 MA

2015-16 18.93 19.1 20.46 19.73

2020-21 20.32 20.87 22.26 21.23

2025-26 21.71 22.82 24.22 22.83

2030-31 23.1 24.94 26.35 24.56


The projection for total food grain demand will also made using alternative

scenario. In 2020-21 the food grain demand will ranges between 246.85 million tons

to 252.51 million tons, this will ranges between 271.38 million tons to 285.91 million

tons in 2030-31. It can be safely assumed the food grain demand will be around 280

million tons in 2030-31. With three year moving average total food grain demand

comes 252.81 million tons for 2020-21, 269.68 million tons in 2025-26 and 287.67

million tons in 2030-31, observing 1.3 percent of annual growth rate. The estimates

for total food grain demand comes 252.51 million tons for 2020-21, 268.69 million

tons for 2025-26 and 285.91 million tons for 2030-31, by taking five year moving

average.

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Table: 5.13 Total Food Grain Demand Projections:


Trend

3 MA 5 MA

2015-16 234.57 237.45 237.00 237.3

2020-21 246.85 252.65 252.81 252.51

2025-26 259.12 268.93 269.68 268.69

2030-31 271.38 286.2 287.67 285.91


5.4 Food Grain Supply Projection:

The future food grain supply of India is projected on two methods. The first

simple business as usual approach the by fitting simple linear regression equation as

under:

Yi = a + bTi

Simple regression estimates on time as explanatory variable from 1991-92 to

2012-13 has been extrapolated to find the future supply. This approach assumed

future movement in data series is determined by the past pattern embedded in the

series and past trend will continue in future also.

The second approach based upon simple The second approach based on

simple production function approach i.e.

Production = f (Area, Yield)

Production= Area * Yield

To project the future supply average annual growth rates of area and yield was

calculated and on the basis of growth rate future area and yield of particular crops was

estimated and this estimated area and yield was used to project the future food grain

supply. This approach assumed the current increase in productivity growth will

remain in future also, and area expansion will also take place.

Table: 5.14 shows the future supply of food grains in India. Rice and wheat

are the main cereals, on which India food security depends. The production of rice

based on the production trend from 1991-91 to 2012-13 shows that the rice supply

will be around 111.44 million tons in 2020-21, 117.87 million tons in 2025-26 and

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124.29 2030-31. If the growth rates of area and yield are calculated for this period the

growth came 0.005 percent for area and 1.3 percent for yield. It shows that the further

area expansion is not possible and the increase in future supply will depend upon

yield growth. On the basis of yield and area growth the supply of rice comes 112.31

million tons for 2020-21, 120.40 million tons for 2025-26 and 129.07 million tons in

2030-31.

The supply of wheat based first method shows that the wheat production will

be 100.90 million tons in 2020-21, 108.52 million tons in 2025-26 and 116.16 million

tons in 2030-31(Table: 5.14). The wheat area registered the average annual growth

0.85 percent and yield growth rate was observed 1.13 percent by assuming triennium

ending 2012-13 as base year the wheat production will be 106.96 million tons in

2020-21, 118.03 million tons in 2025-26 and 130.25 million tons in 2030-31. If we

assume no further area expansion will not be possible the wheat production will be

105.73 million tons in 2025-26 and 111.84 million tons in 2030-31.

The supply of coarse cereals will be around 44.04 million tons in 2020-21 and

46.75 million tons in 2025-26, this will reached to 49.47 percent in 2030-31. With the

advent of green revolution the importance of coarse cereals declines. The area under

coarse cereals registered negative growth of 1.08 percent during the time period from

1991-91 to 2012-13; in the same period the yield registered the growth of 2.7 percent.

Based upon this scenario taking triennium ended 2012-13 as base period the

production of coarse cereals will be 47.63 million tons in 2020-21, 51.62 million tons

in 2025-26 and 55.95 million tons in 2030-31 (Table: 5.14). The total cereal

production of country will be around 253.61 million tons in 2020-21, 269.74 million

tons in 2025-26 and 285.81 million tons in 2030-31. (Table: 5.14).

The pulses production be extrapolating current production trends comes 17.7


2030-31. The area under pulses registered the annual growth rate of 0.38 percent

during the time period from 1991-91 to 2012-13 and the yield registered the growth of

1 percent. Based upon these growth rates and taking triennium ended 2012-13 as base

period the production of pulses will be 20.05 million tons in 2020-21, 21.48 million

tons in 2025-26 and 23.01 million tons in 2030-31 (Table: 5.14). During the green

revolution pulses did not get enough policy importance and their production decline

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continuously. But in 2007-08 they again get the policy focus and under NFSM effort

are done to increase the productivity of pulses in low productivity areas. This is the

reason during the period from 2001-02 to 2012-13 the area under pulses registered the

growth of 1.2 percent and productivity of pulses rise with rate of 2.3 percent per

annum. If we take this scenario continue the pulses production will be around 23.71


2030-31. The total food production of the country will be around 271.32 million tons

in 2020-21, 288.44 million tons in 2025-26 and 305.56 million tons in 2030-31

(Table: 5.14).

Table: 5.14 Supply Projections of Food Grains

(million tons)

Crops Methods 2015-16 2020-21 2025-26 2030-31

Rice I 105.02 111.44 117.87 124.29

II 104.76 112.31 120.40 129.07

Wheat I 93.28 100.90 108.52 116.16

II 96.92 106.96 118.03 130.25

Coarse

Cereals

I 41.32 44.04 46.75 49.47

II 43.95 47.63 51.62 55.95

Pulses I 16.71 17.7 18.62 19.67

II 18.72 20.05 21.48 23.01

Cereals I 237.48 253.61 269.74 285.87

Food grain I 254.2 271.32 288.44 305.56

Source: Calculation based on data from various issues of Agriculture Statistics at Glance.

5.5 Future Food Security Situation:

Comparison of the projected demand for food grains for 2015-16, 2020-21,

2025-26 and 2030-31 with their corresponding forecasted supply (domestic

production) will provide an estimate of the possible future surplus or deficit. The

future surplus and deficit situation is predicted by taking average of demand and

supply projected from all scenarios. Figure: 5.3 and 5.4 show that there will be

surplus situation for two main cereals rice and wheat. In case of rice the surplus

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ranges from 13 million tons to 16 million tons in 2020-21, 16 to 19 million tons in

2025-26 and 14 to 19 million tons in 2030-31. In case of wheat the surplus will ranges

from 10 million tons to 14 million tons in 2020-21, 5 to 12 million tons in 2025-26

and 13 to 17 million in 2030-31.

Figure: 5.3 Future Demand and Supply of Rice

Source: based on Table 5.8 & 5.14

Figure: 5.4 Future Demand and Supply of Wheat


Figure: 5.5 show the situation of pulses in coming decade in India. The

analysis shows there will be deficit of pulses production. The green line in figure

shows the pulses demand based on absorption approach and red line shows the

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demand projection based on normative approach. The normative approach gives the

minimum requirement of pulses, to maintain the healthy life. Pulses are the key of

nutritional security of India. Still India‟s pulses absorption is very low to recommend

diet. This analysis shows that despite the fact India is the largest producer of pulses; it

has to depend upon the import of pulses. The deficit of pulses will be around 20

million tons based on the normative approach and 3 million tons according to

absorption approach in 2030-31.

Figure: 5.5 Future Demand and Supply of Pulses


Figure: 5.6 Future Demand and Supply of Coarse Cereals


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Figure: 5.7 Future Demand and Supply of Cereals


Figure: 5.8 Future Demand and Supply of Food Grain


Figure: 5.6 presents demand and supply balance of coarse cereals. The coarse

cereals used for dual purpose food and fodder as well. After green revolution period

the coarse grains lost area on the account of declining demand due to change in food

habits. However, coarse grain uses has increased feed and fodder use in livestock

sector. The figure: 5.6 shows surplus in coarse grain production. But it can be possible

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with the increasing importance of livestock sector; there can be increase in coarse

grain demand, which can create stress on surplus of coarse cereals.

The cereals supply and demand balance is shown in Figure: 5.7. In case of

cereals the surplus ranges from 12 million tons to 25 million tons in 2025-26, 14

million tons to 25 million tons in 2025-26, this surplus can be around 30 million tons

in 2030-31. In case of food grain India will remain self-sufficient and food surplus

will range around 20 to 30 million tons in 2030-31. These trends suggest that

managing the projected growth in surplus rather than managing any deficit is likely to

be the bigger policy challenge for India in the future, especially in the case of rice and

wheat. According to the expenditure estimates by NSSO, the share of cereals in total

food expenditure is declining with the increase in income. The share of cereals

expenditure comes down to 12 percent in rural area and 7.3 percent in urban area in

2012-12 from 24.2 percent and 14 percent respectively in 1993-94. On the other hand

the share of livestock products and edible oil is increasing. In case of edible oil India

is net importer. This makes a case for diversification of agriculture. With declining

cereal demand and in case of cereals production India will remain self sufficient, so

there is need to focus more on pulses production and horticulture products.

5.6 Haryana: Future Supply of Food Grains:

Haryana is being the granary of country; play important role in securing food

self sufficiency. Haryana almost cover 3 percent area of country under total food grain

production and contribute around 7 percent of food grain. The major contribution of

state is in terms of rice and production. Haryana contribute around 4 percent of rice

and 11 percent of wheat in national production. In case of procurement of wheat and

rice the Haryana share is around 6 to 7 percent for rice and around 25 percent for

wheat. Thus Haryana is the key state, which holds the foundation of country food

security firm. After estimating future supply for country in this section we will

estimate the future supply of wheat and rice of Haryana.

Table 5.15 provides the future wheat and rice supply scenario in Haryana. The

first method project the supply by extrapolating the past production trend, the second

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method based on area and yield growth rates. Analysis in chapter three shows that

area under most of food grain production in Haryana reached to plateau and there is

very minimal possibility to increase production by raising the area. So, the method

three assume constant area and supply projection is made assuming that there will be

only increase in yield rates. The table shows that the production of rice will be remain

4 to 5 million tonnes in 2030-31 and the share of Haryana in total rice production

remain consistent around 3 to 4 percent. The production of wheat reached to 20.9

million tonnes in 2030-31, if the growth observed from 1991-92 to 2012-13 will

remain continue i.e. 1.8 percent per annum for area and 1.3 percent per annum for

yield. If there is no further increase in area than the wheat production will be around

15.88 million tonnes in 2030-31. The share of Haryana in wheat production will be

remain stable around 12 percent. The yield growth will be key to increase in future

production of food grains. But the yield growth of rice and wheat are not so robust for

Haryana. The analysis in chapter four shows that because of inherent structural

constraints the food grain production in other states is low. So Haryana and Punjab

region will also hold important place in future food grain self-sufficiency. Stagnation

in yield growth rates is cause of concern which requires extra efforts on policy and

research front.

Table: 5.15 Future Rice and Wheat Supply of Haryana

Year Rice Wheat

I II III I II III

2015-16 4.13 3.90 3.80 12.53 13.2 12.33

2020-21 4.62 4.38 4.01 13.76 15.41 13.42

2025-26 5.11 4.9 4.24 15 17.6 14.60

2030-31 5.60 5.5 4.47 16.21 20.9 15.88

Source: Calculations based on the data from various issue of Statistical Abstract of Haryana

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5.7 Conclusion:

This chapter examined the future demand and supply of food grains and

the scenario of food security in the coming decade. After reform period the

annual per capita net availability of food grains has been falling steadily. The

five year moving average of per capita net availability of food grains from 1991

to 2012 declines every five year without exception from 186.2 kg/per year in

1991 to 164.2 kg/ per year in 2012. The cereal per capita availability decl ined

from 171 kg/ per annum in 1991 to 149.1 kg/ per annum in 2012. The food

inflation also witnessed rising trend in recent decade because of increasing

population pressure and supply bottlenecks. This make a case to study the future

demand and supply situation of food grains to ensure food security of country.

According to normative approach based on the recommended diet by the

national institute of nutrition the demand for food grain will range from 212

million tonnes to 252 million tonnes in 2015-16 based on different life style. In

2030-31 the demand for food grains will range from 244 million tonnes to 290

million tonnes. The demand projection based on absorption approach showed

that the food grain demand will be range from 271 million tonnes to 287 million

tonnes in 2030-31. The supply of food grain for this time period will be around

305 million tonnes. if the demand and supply balance of individual food crops is

considered, there will be a surplus in case of wheat and rice. The surplus in case

of rice in 2030-31 will range between 14 to 19 million tonnes and 13 to 17

million tonnes for wheat. In case of coarse cereals there will also a situation of

surplus. But in case of pulses, which is the major source of nutrition the huge

deficit is noted. The gap between demand and supply of pulses will be around 20

million tonnes in 2030-31. The contribution of Haryana will remain consistent

in wheat and rice production of the country. In the nutshell managing the

projected growth in surplus rather than managing any deficit is likely to be the

bigger policy challenge for India in the future, especially in case of rice and

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wheat. There is need to focus more on pulses production which is the need of

the day. Every possible effort need to be made for efficient implementation of

NFSA 2013 which requires the role of all the stakeholders of food security

of India.

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