Chapter 7 Public Opinion. Copyright © 2011 Cengage WHO GOVERNS? WHO GOVERNS? 1.How does public...

Chapter 7Chapter 7Public OpinionPublic Opinion

Copyright © 2011 CengageCopyright © 2011 Cengage

WHO GOVERNS?WHO GOVERNS?1.1. How does public opinion in America How does public opinion in America

today vary by race, gender, and other today vary by race, gender, and other differences?differences?

2.2. What is political ideology, and how What is political ideology, and how does it affect political behavior and does it affect political behavior and influence public policy?influence public policy?

TO WHAT ENDS?TO WHAT ENDS?1.1. What role did the Framers of the What role did the Framers of the

Constitution think public opinion Constitution think public opinion should play in American democracy?should play in American democracy?

2.2. When, if ever, should public policies When, if ever, should public policies mirror majority opinion?mirror majority opinion?

Warm-upWarm-up

Why do you think government there Why do you think government there is many gaps between what the is many gaps between what the government does and what the government does and what the people want?people want?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVpKgMCtukkv=tVpKgMCtukk

Public opinion pollsPublic opinion polls


Public Opinion and DemocracyPublic Opinion and Democracy

The Framers of the Constitution created a The Framers of the Constitution created a government to achieve certain goals:government to achieve certain goals:

““to form a more perfect Union, establish to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, ensure domestic Tranquility, Justice, ensure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the the general Welfare, and secure the Blessing of Liberty.”Blessing of Liberty.”

– – Preamble to the ConstitutionPreamble to the Constitution


What is Public Opinion?What is Public Opinion?

How Polling WorksHow Polling Works• PollPoll• Random sampleRandom sample• Sampling errorSampling error• Exit pollsExit polls


American politics is intensely local, as when Rep. Loretta Sanchez shakes hands with a voter in her California district. p. 156

Jonathan Nourok/PhotoEdit

How polling worksHow polling works

Poll=survey of public opinion can Poll=survey of public opinion can capture the views of 300 million by capture the views of 300 million by interviewing as few as 1,500 people!interviewing as few as 1,500 people!

Keys to a good poll: positive, Keys to a good poll: positive, comprehensible questions, wording comprehensible questions, wording questions fairlyquestions fairly


Random SampleRandom Sample

Means that any given voter or adult Means that any given voter or adult has an equal chance of being has an equal chance of being interviewedinterviewed

Ex: make a list of all geographic units Ex: make a list of all geographic units in a country (ex. Counties), group in a country (ex. Counties), group them by size of poulation, then select them by size of poulation, then select random units from each population, random units from each population, (down to neighborhoods)(down to neighborhoods)


Sampling errorSampling error

Difference between the results of 2 Difference between the results of 2 surveys surveys

Ex. One random sample shows 70% Ex. One random sample shows 70% of people approve the president, the of people approve the president, the 22ndnd shows 65%, it has a sampling shows 65%, it has a sampling error of 5%error of 5%


Exit pollsExit polls

Since 1952, every major poll has Since 1952, every major poll has successfully picked the winner of the successfully picked the winner of the presidential electionpresidential election

Interviews with randomly selected Interviews with randomly selected voters conducted at polling places to voters conducted at polling places to get a representative sample of voting get a representative sample of voting in districts (but it is hard with close in districts (but it is hard with close elections)elections)


How does polling work?How does polling work?

Usually takes 500,000 population, Usually takes 500,000 population, pollsters need to make 15,000 calls pollsters need to make 15,000 calls to reach 1,065 people to do the to reach 1,065 people to do the survey (get a +-3% margin of error)survey (get a +-3% margin of error)

Read page 158: How the 2008 Read page 158: How the 2008 Presidential Primary Polling Went Presidential Primary Polling Went WrongWrong


How Opinions DifferHow Opinions Differ• Opinion saliencyOpinion saliency• Opinion stabilityOpinion stability• Opinion-policy Opinion-policy

congruencecongruence


What is Public Opinion?What is Public Opinion?

Clinton winning over Obama and Edwards in New Hampshire when the polls said otherwise, p. 158

Jim Cole/AP Photo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvodhsMc2QMv=DvodhsMc2QM

Identify and discuss some of the Identify and discuss some of the examples that are brought to light in examples that are brought to light in this clip on public opinionthis clip on public opinion


How opinions differHow opinions differ

Opinion saliency=some care about Opinion saliency=some care about certain issues more than otherscertain issues more than others

Opinion stability=some issues Opinion stability=some issues opinions are pretty steady; others opinions are pretty steady; others pretty volatilepretty volatile

Opinion policy congruence=some Opinion policy congruence=some issues government seems in sync issues government seems in sync with public; others it does notwith public; others it does not


Warm-up T Q1Warm-up T Q1 Which of the following statements best describes the Which of the following statements best describes the

gender gap?gender gap? A. women are more likely than men to vote for a female A. women are more likely than men to vote for a female

candidatecandidate B. women are more likely than men to vote for a B. women are more likely than men to vote for a

Democratic presidential candidateDemocratic presidential candidate C. men are more likely than women to vote for a C. men are more likely than women to vote for a

Democratic presidential candidateDemocratic presidential candidate D. women change their ideologies more than men do when D. women change their ideologies more than men do when

they marrythey marry E. unmarried men are more likely to vote for a female E. unmarried men are more likely to vote for a female

candidate than married mencandidate than married men


A1A1

B. Voting-age women support the B. Voting-age women support the Democratic Party in higher Democratic Party in higher percentages than menpercentages than men


Q-2Q-2 All of the following are characteristics of an accurate All of the following are characteristics of an accurate

random sample EXCEPTrandom sample EXCEPT A. the questions must be asked in clear, unemotional A. the questions must be asked in clear, unemotional

languagelanguage B. people must have some knowledge of the things they are B. people must have some knowledge of the things they are

asked aboutasked about C. the sample must include at least 10% of the populationC. the sample must include at least 10% of the population D. each person must have an equal chance of being D. each person must have an equal chance of being

interviewedinterviewed E. even the most accurate polls have some sampling error.E. even the most accurate polls have some sampling error.


A2A2

C accurate polling requires a random C accurate polling requires a random sample with clear questions about sample with clear questions about understandable topics. Although understandable topics. Although larger samples are more accurate, larger samples are more accurate, they are expensive. For any they are expensive. For any population over 500,000 at least population over 500,000 at least 1,065 respondents are necessary to 1,065 respondents are necessary to provide 95% confidence, plus or provide 95% confidence, plus or minus 3 %minus 3 %


Q3Q3 What is the effect of a college education on political What is the effect of a college education on political

attitudes?attitudes? A. people with college degrees tend to be more A. people with college degrees tend to be more

conservative, because they have higher than average conservative, because they have higher than average incomesincomes

B. people who have attended college tend to vote more as B. people who have attended college tend to vote more as independents because they think more ideologicallyindependents because they think more ideologically

C. people with college degrees are not as liberal as their C. people with college degrees are not as liberal as their parentsparents

D. people with college degrees describe themselves as D. people with college degrees describe themselves as liberal.liberal.

E. there is no correlation between a college education and E. there is no correlation between a college education and political attitudes.political attitudes.


AQ3AQ3

D. Although people who attend D. Although people who attend college are not as liberal as they college are not as liberal as they used to be, they are still more likely used to be, they are still more likely to describe themselves as liberal.to describe themselves as liberal.


Political SocializationPolitical Socialization

Political socialization – Political socialization – process by process by which background traits influence which background traits influence one’s political viewsone’s political views

Genes and the FamilyGenes and the Family ReligionReligion The Gender GapThe Gender Gap


Children grow up learning, but not always following, their parents’ political beliefs. p. 159

Bob Daemmirch/The Image Works

Mistake of the 2000 electionMistake of the 2000 election

http://http://www.youtube.com/www.youtube.com/watch?v=-watch?v=-xIDdsYVjtk&list=PLxIDdsYVjtk&list=PL1184A8987EC3D521184A8987EC3D5211

Cnn pulls back Cnn pulls back gore winning gore winning floridaflorida

http://http://www.youtube.com/www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrkhywYX15kwatch?v=qrkhywYX15k

Gore wins floridaGore wins florida

Predict=what problems Predict=what problems is this going to cause is this going to cause president/country/citizepresident/country/citizens?voters?ns?voters?


Reading on how Genes affect Reading on how Genes affect political affiliationpolitical affiliation

Read article, Read article, discussdiscuss


Genes and FamilyGenes and Family

1/3 of differences 1/3 of differences among political among political beliefs come from beliefs come from genetics (twins)genetics (twins)

1/10 come from 1/10 come from family influence family influence

Do you know the Do you know the make up of your make up of your family politics?family politics?



Source: Institute of Politics, The 15th Biannual Youth Survey on Politics and Public Service, John F. Kennedy Source: Institute of Politics, The 15th Biannual Youth Survey on Politics and Public Service, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, October 2008.School of Government, Harvard University, October 2008.

Source: Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, Survey: More Americans Question Religion’s Role in Politics, Source: Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, Survey: More Americans Question Religion’s Role in Politics, August 21, 2008, sections 3 and 4.August 21, 2008, sections 3 and 4.

ReligionReligion

Issues like gay Issues like gay marriage, abortion marriage, abortion but matter less on but matter less on economy, wareconomy, war

http://http://www.youtube.com/www.youtube.com/watch?watch?v=hBAiwGzGuvIv=hBAiwGzGuvI

Look at chart next Look at chart next slideslide



Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, Gen Dems: The Party’s Advantage Among Young Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, Gen Dems: The Party’s Advantage Among Young Voters Widens, April 28, 2008.Voters Widens, April 28, 2008.

Gender GapGender Gap

Difference between Difference between men and women men and women political viewspolitical views

Since 1980, women Since 1980, women have voted in a have voted in a higher rate then higher rate then men/also more men/also more women then men women then men in voting in voting populationpopulation

Democrats have Democrats have the advantage of the advantage of the womenthe women


Political socializationPolitical socialization

http://http://www.youtube.com/www.youtube.com/watch?watch?v=gSBPHSAEdYMv=gSBPHSAEdYM


Figure 7.1 Gender Gaps on Figure 7.1 Gender Gaps on Issue Importance (2006)Issue Importance (2006)


Source: Source: Ms. Ms. magazine/WDN Poll, Lake Research Partners, surveying 1,000 randomly magazine/WDN Poll, Lake Research Partners, surveying 1,000 randomly selected likely voters November 6–7, 2006.selected likely voters November 6–7, 2006.

Cleavages in Public OpinionCleavages in Public Opinion

Social Social Class=working-class Class=working-class (blue collar), upper-(blue collar), upper-class (white collar)class (white collar)

Race and EthnicityRace and Ethnicity RegionRegion


Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa speaks to supporters. p. 164

Lester Cohen/WireImage.com/Getty Images

Race and ethnicityRace and ethnicity

AA=Dem. (some AA=Dem. (some younger AA voting younger AA voting republican for republican for school vouchers)school vouchers)

Minorities=DemMinorities=Dem Asian Am/Anglo Asian Am/Anglo

whites=Rep.whites=Rep.


Obama won women by 12 % Obama won women by 12 % and Romney won men by 8%and Romney won men by 8%


RegionRegion

South less South less liberal/East/West liberal/East/West Coast LiberalCoast Liberal


Political IdeologyPolitical Ideology

Political ideologyPolitical ideology - A more or less - A more or less consistent set of beliefs about what consistent set of beliefs about what policies government ought to pursue.policies government ought to pursue.

Mass Ideologies: A TypologyMass Ideologies: A Typology Liberal and Conservative ElitesLiberal and Conservative Elites


Take the typology quizTake the typology quiz

Go to this website: Go to this website: http://typology.people-press.org/typohttp://typology.people-press.org/typologylogy



Source: Adapted from Source: Adapted from “Profiles of the Typology “Profiles of the Typology Groups: Beyond Red and Groups: Beyond Red and Blue,” Pew Research Blue,” Pew Research Center for the People and Center for the People and the Press, 2005.the Press, 2005.

Political Elites, Public Opinion, Political Elites, Public Opinion, and Public Policyand Public Policy

Political elites – Political elites – persons with a persons with a disproportionate share of political disproportionate share of political power.power.

Elites raise and frame political issues.Elites raise and frame political issues. Elites state the norms by which Elites state the norms by which

issues should be settled.issues should be settled.


Political Elites, Public Opinion, Political Elites, Public Opinion, and Public Policyand Public Policy

HOW MUCH INFLUENCE DO ELITES HOW MUCH INFLUENCE DO ELITES HAVE ON THE FOLLOWING?HAVE ON THE FOLLOWING?

RacismRacism SexismSexism Economic problemsEconomic problems CrimeCrime DrugsDrugs Foreign affairsForeign affairs


M E M O R A N D U MM E M O R A N D U M

To: To: Cecilia Kennedy, U.S. RepresentativeCecilia Kennedy, U.S. Representative

From: From: Ronald Edwards, legislative assistantRonald Edwards, legislative assistant

Subject: Subject: Vote on comprehensive immigration reformVote on comprehensive immigration reform

The 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) sought to stem The 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) sought to stem illegal immigration by imposing penalties on employers who hire illegal immigration by imposing penalties on employers who hire them, while permitting the estimated 3 million illegal immigrants them, while permitting the estimated 3 million illegal immigrants at the time to attain legal status. Since then, however, the number at the time to attain legal status. Since then, however, the number of illegal immigrants in the United States has quadrupled, while of illegal immigrants in the United States has quadrupled, while law enforcement efforts to punish employers or deport those law enforcement efforts to punish employers or deport those immigrants have been minimal. Your district is not directly immigrants have been minimal. Your district is not directly affected by immigration, but voters have concerns both about affected by immigration, but voters have concerns both about maintaining law and order, and providing economic opportunities maintaining law and order, and providing economic opportunities for people who have resided in this country for many years.for people who have resided in this country for many years.


WHAT WOULD YOU DO?WHAT WOULD YOU DO?

Arguments for:Arguments for:

1. Your district contains a large proportion of first-generation 1. Your district contains a large proportion of first-generation Americans, who favor a “path to citizenship” for immigrants Americans, who favor a “path to citizenship” for immigrants who have lived in this country for years, regardless of their who have lived in this country for years, regardless of their legal status.legal status.

2. Illegal immigrants often take menial jobs that nobody else 2. Illegal immigrants often take menial jobs that nobody else wants, and contribute to the U.S. economy by paying taxes wants, and contribute to the U.S. economy by paying taxes and buying goods and services.and buying goods and services.

3. A “path to citizenship,” with fines and other penalties for 3. A “path to citizenship,” with fines and other penalties for being in the country illegally, is the most realistic option for being in the country illegally, is the most realistic option for individuals who have family and other long-term ties in the individuals who have family and other long-term ties in the United States.United States.



Arguments against:Arguments against:

1. Your party leaders oppose comprehensive immigration 1. Your party leaders oppose comprehensive immigration reform, saying that enhanced border security must be a reform, saying that enhanced border security must be a higher priority.higher priority.

2. Illegal immigrants take jobs away from native-born 2. Illegal immigrants take jobs away from native-born Americans and cost more in public services, such as Americans and cost more in public services, such as education and emergency health care, than they contribute education and emergency health care, than they contribute to the economy.to the economy.

3. People who entered the country illegally must not be 3. People who entered the country illegally must not be rewarded for breaking the law, and enforcement can be rewarded for breaking the law, and enforcement can be effective with sufficient resources.effective with sufficient resources.



Your decision:Your decision:

Vote for bill?Vote for bill?

Vote against bill?Vote against bill?



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