Chapter 7 Introduction to statistical inference v4 PartI...Probability and Statistics Chapter 7:...
Transcript of Chapter 7 Introduction to statistical inference v4 PartI...Probability and Statistics Chapter 7:...
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Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
K Van Steen 1
CHAPTER 7: INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICAL INFERENCE
1 Introduction
2 Parametric point estimation
2.1 Methods of finding estimates
Method of moments
Maximum likelihood
Other
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Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
K Van Steen 2
2.2 Properties of point estimates
Mean Squared Error
Consistency and BAN
Sufficient statistics
2.3 Unbiased estimation
2.4 Highlight: Bayes estimators (postponed)
Posterior distribution - Loss-function invariance -
Minimax estimator
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Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
K Van Steen 3
3 Parametric interval estimation
3.1 Estimating with confidence
3.2 Methods of finding confidence intervals
3.3 Highlight: Bayesian interval estimation (postponed)
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Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
K Van Steen 4
4 Hypothesis testing
4.1 Tests of significance
4.2 Hypothesis types
Simple hypothesis
Composite hypothesis
4.3 Assumptions about hypothesis tests
4.4 Examples
4.5 Use and abuse of tests
4.6 Multiple testing
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Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
K Van Steen 5
5 Inference for distributions
5.1 Inference for the mean of a population
5.2 Comparing two means
5.3 Optional topics in comparing distributions
6 Inference for proportions
6.1 inference for a single proportion
6.2 Comparing two proportions
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Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
K Van Steen 6
7 Analysis of two-way tables
7.1 Inference for two-way tables
7.2 Formulas and models for two-way tables and Goodness-of-fit
8 How to select the appropriate test?
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Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
K Van Steen 7
1 Introduction
• Statistical inference means drawing conclusions based on data. There are a
many contexts in which inference is desirable, and there are many
approaches to performing inference.
• One important inferential context is parametric models. For example, if you
have noisy (x; y) data that you think follow the pattern y = β0 + β1x + error ,
then you might want to estimate β0, β1, and the magnitude of the error.
This will be the subject of Chapter 8
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Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
K Van Steen 8
• In earlier chapters, we indicated that a sample from the distribution of a
population is useful in making inferences about the population itself.
• Two important problems in statistical inference are estimation and testing
(of hypotheses).
• In point estimation, the value of some statistic (i.e. a function of random
variables – see later) represents or estimates the unknown parameter of
interest.
• In interval estimation, two statistics are defined so that they span an
interval for which the probability can be determined that it contains the
unknown parameter
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Definition of an estimator
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Definition of an estimator
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
K Van Steen 10
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
2 Parametric point estimation
2.1 Methods of finding estimates
Method of moments
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
2 Parametric point estimation
estimates
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Example 1 of the method of moments
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Example 1 of the method of moments
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Example 2 of the method of moments
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Example 2 of the method of moments
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Method-of-moment estimators are not unique
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
moment estimators are not unique
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
K Van Steen 16
Maximum probability
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Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
K Van Steen 17
Maximum likelihood
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Intuition behind Maximum Likelihood (ML)
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Intuition behind Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimators
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Definition of ML estimator
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Definition of ML estimator
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Example of ML estimators
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Example of ML estimators
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
The invariance property of ML estimators
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
The invariance property of ML estimators
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
K Van Steen 29
Bayesian approach
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Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
K Van Steen 30
Other criteria to estimate parameters
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
2.2 Properties of point estimates
Mean Squared Error
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
2.2 Properties of point estimates
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Consistency and BAN
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Loss and Risk function
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Interpretation
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
before
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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before
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Sufficient statistics
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Hence …
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
2.3 Unbiased estimation
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
2.3 Unbiased estimation
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
How to find UMVUEs?
Lower bound for the variance
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Lower bound for the variance
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Probability and Statistics
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Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
(proof for your information)
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
(proof for your information)
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Uses of the theorem
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
2.4 Highlight: Bayes estimators (postponed)
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Highlight: Bayes estimators (postponed)
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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3 Parametric interval estimation
3.1 Estimating with confidence
Overview of inference
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Statistical confidence
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Confidence intervals
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Implications
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Standardizing the normal curve using z
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Varying confidence levels
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How do we find specific z* values?
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Link between confidence level and margin of error
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Impact of sample size
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Sample size and experimental design
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
3.2 Methods of finding confidence intervals
Statistical method
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
Methods of finding confidence intervals
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Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
(Figure A)
Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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(Figure A)
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A
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Probability and Statistics
K Van Steen
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
(Figure B)
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(Figure B)
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B
Probability and Statistics Chapter 7: Introduction to Statistical Inference
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4 Hypothesis testing
4.1 Tests of significance
Reasoning of significance tests
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Stating hypotheses
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One-sided and two-sided tests
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How to choose?
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The p-value
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Interpreting a p-value
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Tests for a population mean
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P-value in one-sided and two-sided tests
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The significance level α
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Confidence intervals to test hypotheses
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Logic of confidence interval test
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More about the relationship to confidence intervals
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Permutation / randomization tests
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Bootstrap tests
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4.2 Hypothesis types
Simple hypothesis and Composite hypothesis
• A simple hypothesis is a hypothesis which specifies the population
distribution completely.
• Examples
1. H0: X ~ Bi(100,1/2), i.e. p is specified
2. H0: X ~ N(5,20), i.e. µ and are specified
• A composite hypothesis is a hypothesis which does not specify the
population distribution completely.
• Examples
1. X ~ Bi(100,p) and H1: p > 0.5
2. X ~ N(0, ) and H1: unspecified