Chapter 5. Public Opinion Public opinion is important in US Opinions about a given government...
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Transcript of Chapter 5. Public Opinion Public opinion is important in US Opinions about a given government...
Chapter 5
Public Opinion Public opinion is important in US
Opinions about a given government policy can change over time, often dramatically
Public opinion places boundaries on allowable types of public policies
Citizens often provide opinions on which they have no expertise
Governments tend to respond to public opinion
The government sometimes does not do what people want
Public Opinion and Models of Democracy
Opinion polling dates from the 1930s
Not a powerful research tool until computers invented in 1950s
Founders built public opinion into structure of government by allowing direct election of representatives to the House and apportioning representation there by population
Sampling a Few, Predicting to Everyone
Statistical theory of sampling holds that a sample of a population selected by chance is representative of that population
Three factors affect accuracy of sample: Must be chosen randomly Larger samples more accurate Greater variation in population means
greater chance for differences in ability to predict
Accurate Polling Most national opinion polling
organizations poll 1,500 individuals Accurate within 3 percentage points
95% of the time Even this small margin of error can
mean incorrect predictions in close elections
Polls can be wrong because of biased question wording or superficial responses
Look at current polls: http://www.pollingreport.com
Public Opinion and Democracy
Majoritarian model of democracy holds government should do what a majority of the people want Around 70% of Americans think
majority opinion should have a great deal of influence on politicians
Pluralist model of democracy believes democracy requires free expression of opinions by minority groups Public as a whole rarely demonstrates
clear, consistent opinions
Public Opinion and Democracy
Difficult to see U.S. as democratic under majoritarian model
Bills passed in Congress or state legislatures do not always reflect public opinion
Supreme Court decisions sometimes go against majority opinion
Majoritarian model assumes clear, consistent public opinion about public policies
Pluralist model sees public uninformed and ambivalent about specific issues
Gallup Poll
Accuracy
The Distribution of Public Opinion
To understand and act on public opinion, government must understand how it is distributed
Distribution of public opinion falls into three patterns: Skewed Bimodal Normal
Figure 5.2
Three Distributions of Opinion
Distribution Models for Public Opinion
Description of public opinion results depends on mode, or most frequent response Skewed distributions have most
respondents with one opinion Bimodal distributions have two
answers chosen with about equal frequency
Normal distributions are bell-shaped along a continuum, requiring a moderate approach to policymaking
Stability of the Distribution
Stable distributions have little change over time When same question produces
different responses over time, public opinion has shifted
When different questions on same issue produce similar results, underlying attitudes stable
Ideological Distributions
Since 1964, ideologies have been skewed towards conservatism Since 1992, slightly more
conservatives and fewer moderates Changes in subgroups, such as
college students, may not be reflected in general population
Opinions about controversial issues can change dramatically over time
Figure 5.3 Are Students More
ConservativeThan Their Parents?
Political Socialization Values acquired through political
socialization Most people exposed to same
sources of influence, or agents of socialization Family School Community Peers The media
The Agents of Early Socialization
Fundamental principles of early learning: The primacy principle The structuring principle
The extent of any socializing agent depends on our exposure to it, communication with it, and receptivity to it
Family and School Important agent of socialization,
because most people learn first from family Learn wide range of values If parents interested, learn to be
politically interested and informed If both parents identify with one
political party, kids tend to also identify with it
Religion stronger socialization than party because of regular activities
School Some believe schools have equal or
greater influence on political learning as parents Elementary schools teach kids about
nation’s slogans and symbols, norms of group behavior, and democratic decision making
In high school, kids learn to distinguish between political leaders and political institutions, about being a “good citizen,” and an awareness of the political process
College courses may teach students to question dominant political values and stimulate critical thinking
Community and Peers Community makeup determines
how political opinions of members formed Homogeneous communities exert
strong pressures to conform Peer groups sometimes can
provide defense against community pressures Adolescent and college peer groups
against parental opinion
Continuing Socialization
Political socialization a lifelong process
Adults rely more on peer groups and the media for political information
Adults gain perspective on government as they grow older
Social Groups and Political Values
Each person’s political socialization unique However, people with similar
backgrounds tend to have similar political opinions
Questions from the 2008 National Election Study (ANES) about abortion and the government guaranteeing employment good illustration Check out your views: http://IDEAlog.org
Figure 5.4 How Groups Differ on Two
Questions of Order and Equality
Education Education increases awareness
and understanding of political issues With regard to abortion, college-
educated individuals tend to choose personal freedom over social order
With regard to government programs to reduce income inequality, those with more education tend to choose personal freedom over equality
Income Most Americans consider
themselves to be “middle class” Wealth linked to opinions favoring a
limited government role in promoting equality, somewhat less with order
Groups with more income and higher education value freedom
Region Historically, regional differences
in political opinion important Fed by differences in wealth
Today, those in the South and Northwest more likely to favor restricting abortion
Those in the Northeast and West more supportive of government programs for income equalization
Race and Ethnicity Historically, those of different
races and ethnicities have tended to differ in their political values Immigrants in late 1800s and early
1900s tended to favor Democratic party
African-Americans initially Republican, but later Democratic
Today, minorities tend to have similar attitudes on equality issues
Religion Religious makeup of the U.S. fairly
stable since 1940s Today, population 56% Protestant
(conservative), 22% Catholic (moderate), 13% profess no religion, and less than 2% Jewish (Liberal)
Religious beliefs tend to affect attitudes about social order Look at attitudes about abortion,
death penalty, gay marriage, stem cell research, human cloning, and the teaching of evolution or creationism
Gender Men and women differ on many
social and political issues Look at abortion, affirmative action,
government spending on social programs, death penalty, and going to war
“Gender gap” means women tend to favor Democrats
The Degree of Ideological Thinking in Public Opinion Some believe terms liberal and
conservative no longer adequate However, political analysis requires
categories Most people don’t think of
themselves in ideological terms
The Quality of Ideological Thinking in Public Opinion Differences in liberals and
conservatives used to be based on opinions about the role of government
Today, liberals associated with change and conservatives with tradition Liberals more likely to trade freedom
for equality Conservatives more likely to trade
freedom for order
Ideological Types in The U.S.
People’s preferences for government action depend on what the action targets
Poll respondents do not always categorize themselves the same way their responses do
Ideological tendencies reflect differences between different social groups
Figure 5.5Respondents Classified by Ideological
Tendencies
Forming Political Opinions
Studies show at least half of Americans knowledgeable about government and politics Some groups much less knowledgeable No ideological distinctions Are we politically ignorant?
Most people know if a policy will directly help or hurt them Self-interest principle Some use decision making “short cuts”
Political Leadership Public opinion on specific issues
affected by public perception of political leaders
Politicians make arguments based on shared ideology and self-interest Issue framing or “spin”
Politicians’ ability to influence public opinion enhanced by growth of broadcast media