Chapter 3travisgomez.weebly.com/uploads/8/5/9/9/...3.5 Macroeconomic determinants of money demand Ch...
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Chapter 3
The demand for money
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Learning Outcomes
➢ Determinants of money demand
➢ Modelling Money demand- Micro
➢Keynes’ – Liquidity preference model
➢Baumol-Tobin – Inventory Theoretic model
➢ Tobin – Portfolio Selection
➢ Modelling Money demand- Macro
➢ General set of money demand equations
➢ Empirical evidence of money demand functions – The case of
missing money
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Why do people demand money?
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3.1 Determinants of the demand for
money
Ch 3– Demand for money
• Interest rate Differentials
• Transaction costs
• Price Uncertainty of assets
• Expected pattern of expenditure and receipts
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3.1 Determinants of the demand for
money
Ch 3– Demand for money
Determinant Demand For Money
1. Interest Differentials
2. Transaction Costs
3. Price Uncertainty of assets
4. Expected pattern of expenditure and
receipts
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3.2 Keynes – Drivers of demand
Ch 3– Demand for money
Transaction
Motive
Precautionary
Motive
Speculative
Motive
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Modelling money demand - Micro
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Two Views on Money
Money as a Cost Money as an investment
1. Keynes liquidity preference model 3. Tobin’s
portfolio selection model2. Baumol – Tobin
Inventory Theoretic Model
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3.2 Model 1 - Keynes liquidity preference
model
Ch 3– Demand for money
Assumptions
• Individuals held their expectations of interest rate movements with certainty.
• People want to hold as little money as possible given the lower return
Conclusion
• People Will either hold as little cash as possible or everything as cash
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3.2 Keynes liquidity preference
Ch 3– Demand for money
The Problem => The Plunger Problem
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11Ch 3– Demand for money
3.2 Shortcomings of Keynes’s model• Weakness 1- Interest rates are sticky
• This may be due to the high transaction costs involved in moving money in
and out of bonds
Source: Tobin (1958) – Liquidity preference as behavior towards risk
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12Ch 3– Demand for money
3.2 Shortcomings of Keynes's model• Weakness 2 - Differences of opinion on the interest rate
Source: Tobin (1958) – Liquidity preference as behavior towards risk
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3.3 Model 2 - Baumol – Tobin- Inventory
theoretic approach
Ch 3– Demand for money
• The objective is to choose the number of times she transfers between the
stock of bonds and cash that maximises profits, or equivalently minimises
costs.
Setup▪ The Individuals has to meet a Total expenditure (T) which is pread equally
over a given period
▪ The individual salary is held in the Bank in the form of bonds which earns an interest rate of i per period.
▪ In order to meet expenses the individual visits the bank and withdraws amount Z as Cash
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3.3 Model 2 - Baumol – Tobin- Inventory
theoretic approach
Ch 3– Demand for money
• The objective is to choose how much money is withdrawn each time you
visit the bank in order to minimize the cost.
The Costs of Visiting the Bank
▪ Transactions Costs per Visit (b)
▪ Interest rate foregone (i)
Objective
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3.3 Baumol – Tobin- Inventory theoretic
approach
Ch 3– Demand for money
Key identities
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3.3 Baumol – Tobin- Inventory theoretic
approach
Ch 3– Demand for money
Key identities
The effect on optimal money demand
• Brokerage Fee
• Interest Rates
• Income
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17Ch 3– Demand for money
Application – 2014 ZA
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18Ch 3– Demand for money
Application – Activity 3.1
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3.3 Baumol – Tobin- Inventory theoretic
approach
Ch 3– Demand for money
Shortcomings of the model
• Assumes that the pattern of expenditure and receipts is known perfectly
• Does not correspond with the micro level empirical evidence of the balances
held by the firms – Miller & Orr (1966)
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3.3 Baumol – Tobin- Inventory theoretic
approach
Ch 3– Demand for money
Miller & Orr (1966) – A Hybrid model
• Cash is allowed to wander freely until an upper or lower bound is reached,
at which point cash is restored to the optimal level
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3.4 Model 3 - Tobin- Portfolio selection
Ch 3– Demand for money
Setup
The individuals objective is to determine the optimal weight to be placed in
money and bonds in order the risk adjusted return
• B – Weight placed in bonds
• 1-B - Weight placed in Money
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3.4 Tobin- Portfolio selection
Ch 3– Demand for money
• The individual maximize wealth at the point where the individuals utility
function is tangent to the budget constraint
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3.4 Tobin- Portfolio selection
Ch 3– Demand for money
Advantages
• Solved the Keynes plunger problem
• Captures the economic reality that people diversify their wealth into
• more than just one asset.
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3.4 Tobin- Portfolio selection
Ch 3– Demand for money
Other Issues
• Risk Aversion
• Diversifiers – Concave upward slopping
• Plungers - Convex or linear upward sloping
• Changes to Interest rates
• Substitution Effect
• Income Effect
• Changes in perceived risk
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Modelling money demand - Macro
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3.5 Review – LM Curve
Ch 3– Demand for money
Money Demand =>
• positively related to income and negatively related to the nominal interest rate.
Money Supply = >
• assumed to be independent from the interest rate and directly controlled by the central bank.
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3.5 LM Curve
Ch 3– Demand for money
• H1 – Sensitivity of Money demand to income
• H2 – Sensitivity of money demand to interest rates.
Scenarios
• H2 high – Shallower LM curve
• H2 Low – Steeper LM Curve
• H2 zero – LM curve vertical – Classical Case
• H2 => infinite – LM curve Horizontal – Liquidity trap
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3.5 Macroeconomic determinants of
money demand
Ch 3– Demand for money
Money Demand =>
• Y acts as a proxy for the level of transactions undertaken
• Ris represent the opportunity cost of holding money
• Wealth (W) is included as it forms the budget constraint on which the
choice of money holdings depends but since wealth is capitalised current
and future income, it is not independent of Y
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3.5 Macroeconomic determinants of
money demand
Ch 3– Demand for money
Common Log linear function of Money demand
= >
Where a & b are the elasticity's with respect to income and the interest rate
Views on elasticity
• Classical => low b => Steep LM curve => Monetary Policy more effective
• Keynesian = > High b => Shallow LM curve => Fiscal Policy more effective
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3.6 The stability of the money demand
function
Ch 3– Demand for money
• The Money demand function is only useful so long as money demand is
stable
• The stability of money demand can only be determined by statistical
analysis of the relevant data
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The mystery of the Missing Money
- Robert Lawrence
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3.7 The mystery of the Missing Money
Ch 3– Demand for money
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3.7 The case of the Missing Money
Ch 3– Demand for money
Goldfeld (1973) model specification
• Initial results were promising - The conventional equation exhibits no
marked instabilities, in either the short run or the long run
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3.7 The case of the Missing Money
Source: Goldfeld, The Case of the Missing Money
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3.6 The case of the missing money
Ch 3– Demand for money
Possible Explanations
• Financial Innovation – Brokerage fees associated with transacting money
declined leading people to hold lower money balances
• Oil Shocks - . This meant that the opportunity cost of holding money
increased and was eventually so large that it became worthwhile for cash
managers to find more efficient ways of holding cash balances, allowing
more wealth to be put into interest-earning assets.
• Misspecified Model – This is a reduced form equation.
• Structural Breakdown – Shift in the monetary policy stance in the U.S
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Recap & Review
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Recap & Learning outcomes
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38Ch 2– Nature of Money
Further Reading
Journals
• Baumol – Inventory Theoretic Model
• Tobin – Liquidity preference model
• Miller, Orr – Determinants of Money demand
• Goldfeld – The case of the missing money
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6252317.pdf
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39Ch 2– Nature of Money
End of Chapter Questions